为什么新兴市场的情况与以往大相径庭
Why Things Aren't What They Used to Be in Emerging Markets
1497字
2019-12-21 08:52
40阅读
火星译客

The prospect of stabilizing commodity prices and improving corporate earnings has helped rebuild investor interest in emerging markets over the past year. But returning investors may find the constituents of today's emerging markets are very different from those of the past. I've invited my colleague Carlos Hardenberg to share some of his experiences of how emerging markets are not just emerging but evolving, too.

去年,商品价格前景企稳和企业盈利改善已让投资者恢复对新兴市场的兴趣。但回归新兴市场的投资者可能发现,新兴市场如今的组成与以往大相径庭。在本文中,我邀请了同事卡洛斯·哈登伯格分享他的一些体会,到底新兴市场是如何新兴,以及如何演变。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Dutch, German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、荷兰文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

When we look at the emerging-market companies in which we invest today, they are worlds away from the companies we were analysing a decade or two ago.

我们观察今天所投资的新兴市场公司时会发现,这些公司与十年或二十年前我们分析的公司截然不同。

The landscape of emerging-market corporations in general has undergone a significant transformation from the often plain-vanilla business models of the past that tended to focus on infrastructure, telecommunications, classic banking models or commodity-related businesses, to a new generation of very innovative companies that are moving into technology and much higher value-added production processes.

新兴市场公司的整体格局已发生重大转变,从过去常见的最基本业务模式,即倾向于主营基础设施、通信、传统银行业务或商品相关业务等,转为新一代高度创新型公司,进入科技和附加值较高的生产发展。

Furthermore, we're starting to see the establishment of some very strong globally represented brands which originate from emerging-market countries.

另外,发源于新兴市场国家的一些国际大品牌已开始在全球范围内扩张。

Back in the late 1990s, when I was starting out in the emerging-market investing world, technology-oriented companies made up only around 3% of the universe, as represented by the MCSI Emerging Markets (EM) Index.1 Even six years ago, information technology (IT) represented less than 10% of investable companies in the index.2 Much has changed since then.

追溯到二十世纪九十年代末我开始投资新兴市场的时候,科技类公司仅占该领域市场3%(由MCSI新兴市场指数代表)。[1]即便在六年前,该指数中可投资的信息技术公司比重仍低于10%。[2]但从那以后情况已大有不同。

Today, around a quarter of the MSCI EM Index is in the IT sector, which includes hardware, software, components and suppliers.

如今,MCSI新兴市场指数中约四分之一的公司来自信息技术行业,包括软件、硬件、组件和供应商。

01317_CarlosRising4

And while much of this activity is originating in Asia, including Taiwan, South Korea and increasingly China, we are also seeing similar developments in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and even Africa.

虽然上述变化多数来自亚洲,包括台湾和韩国,中国也越来越多,但拉丁美洲、中欧及东欧,甚至是非洲也正出现类似的发展。

The IT sector can be a difficult space to understand and value. Business models are rapidly changing as they adapt to the shifting demands of consumers, and respond to new environmental requirements. Thus, one needs to spend more time understanding and evaluating individual companies before investing in the right stocks, also based on desired risk tolerance.

信息技术行业是难懂而且难以估值的一个领域。为了适应消费者不断变化的需求,以及应对新环境要求,该行业的业务模式快速发生变动,因此,在作出正确的投资之前,投资者需要投注更多时间来了解评估单个公司,同时须立足于自身的风险承受能力。

Currently, we have identified opportunities among some larger-sized companies, but tend to generally favour mid-sized companies we think have the potential to outgrow the market as a whole. We look for companies we believe have the ability to adapt more efficiently and are more flexible in adjusting to a fast-changing environment, run by flexible and well-incentivised management teams.

目前,我们已在一些较大型的公司中挖掘到机会,但整体上看好有潜力跑赢大市的中型公司。我们正在寻找能够更有效地适应以及灵活应对瞬息万变的环境,同时由优秀且善于把握机会的管理团队管理的公司。

The Value of Active Management in Emerging-Market Investing

主动管理在新兴市场投资中的价值

While there has been a considerable evolution in the emerging-market investing universe over the last decade, we remain adamant in our belief that emerging markets remain an investment asset class in which active management should play a vital role for a number of reasons.

虽然新兴市场投资领域已在过去十年发生显著变化,但我们依然坚信,多个原因使然,新兴市场依然是主动管理会从中起关键作用的投资资产类别。

Emerging markets tend to have their own business rules and regulations which affect companies, corporations differ largely in their attitude towards minority investors, governance standards vary significantly and local intricacies determine consumer trends and habits. We often need to develop fairly close relationships to gain a better understanding of business prospects and find successful management teams that respect the rules.

新兴市场在管理企业方面通常有自身的商业规则和条例,企业对中小投资者的态度存在巨大差异,管治标准相去甚远,当地情况错综复杂,决定了其消费趋势和习惯。我们通常需要发展十分密切的关系以更深入地了解公司前景,以及寻找尊重规则的成功管理团队。

We think these factors could be an important consideration as attention returns to emerging markets on the back of the generally improving performances we have seen in these markets recently.

新兴市场近期的表现普遍改善后,重新得到投资者的关注,我们认为上述因素值得为投资者重点考虑。

After more than three years of languishing at depressed levels, earnings in emerging-market companies are showing signs of recovery, and that is reflected in the attitudes of companies and their management as well as in their financial data.

在低谷徘徊三年多之后,新兴市场公司盈利已开始出现回升的迹象,而这反映在公司及其管理层的态度以及财务数据上。

0317_Carlos_Turn2

Recently, on a trip to Dubai, my team and I met a range of companies from Africa, the Middle East and other emerging markets, which were far more confident and open in sharing their outlook for the next 12-to-24 months.

在近期的迪拜之旅中,我和我的团队拜访了很多来自非洲、中东和其他新兴市场的公司,他们非常自信而且坦率地和我们分享了未来12到24个月的展望。

Even in regions that are still going through a phase of adjustment and rebalancing, we see improving visibility and increasingly evident robust underlying economic conditions such as low debt, stabilizing commodity markets, reduced currency volatility and improving consumer confidence.

即使是仍处于调整和再平衡阶段的地区,其相关经济状况也在显著改善而且越来越稳健,例如低债务、商品市场企稳、货币波动减弱以及消费者信心提升。

After a relatively bleak period for emerging markets, it seems that many of the factors that have attracted investors to the asset class, including stronger earnings growth, higher gross domestic product growth levels and far more attractive consumer trends, may be coming back into play.

新兴市场在经历了一段相对黯淡的时期后,该资产类别中吸引投资者的众多因素可能会再次发挥作用,包括较强劲的盈利增长、较高的国内生产总值增长水平,以及极具吸引力的消费趋势。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

____________________________________

____________________________________

1. Source: MSCI. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 emerging -market countries. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. See www.franklintempletondataservices.com for additional data provider information.

[1] 资料来源︰摩根士丹利资本国际。MSCI新兴市场指数追踪23个新兴市场国家的大中型代表性股票。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不反映费用、开支或认购费。其他数据供应商资料请浏览www.franklintempletondataservices.com

2. Ibid.

[2] 同上.

0 条评论
评论不能为空