南非平流缓进
South Africa's Slow Progress
2583字
2019-12-20 13:33
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文版

I recently had the opportunity to visit South Africa, which has seen its fair share of challenges over the past few years. Arriving in sunny Cape Town with its beautiful views of the Atlantic and Indian oceans, spectacular Table Mountain and invigorating weather, I found it difficult to become too negative about the country, at least from a traveler's perspective simply because the people are so friendly and because the integration of so many cultures living and working together make me optimistic.

我最近有机会到南非一游,该国在过去几年经历了相当多的挑战。抵达阳光明媚的开普敦,领略到属于大西洋和印度洋的美丽景观、壮观的桌山和令人心旷神怡的天气,我发现很难对这个国家产生过于消极的情绪,至少从一个游客的角度来看,单单是热情友善的人们以及生活和工作中多种文化的融合就能让我感到乐观。

Cape Town sits at the southern tip of Africa, and is just one corner of a tremendously diverse nation. There are 11 official languages in South Africa: Afrikaans, English, Ndebele, Northern Sotho, Southern Sotho, Swati, Tswana, Tsonga, Venda, Xhosa and Zulu.

开普敦坐落于非洲的南端,这里只是一个超多种族国家的一角。南非有11种官方语言,包括南非语、英语、恩德贝勒语、北索托语、南索托语、斯瓦蒂语、茨瓦纳语、聪加语、文达语、科萨语和祖鲁语。

I had just finished reading Roger Crowley's “Conquerors: How Portugal Forged the First Global Empire,” which tells the story of the intrepid, ambitious and aggressive Portuguese explorers like Bartolomeu Dias who, after the deaths at sea of many of their compatriots, were finally able to reach and pass around the tip of South Africa in 1487. Portuguese King John II named that tip the Cape of Good Hope (which eventually became Cape Town) because of the fortunes they expected to find ahead in the East Indies.

我刚读完罗杰·克劳利(Roger Crowley)的《征服者:葡萄牙帝国的崛起》(Conquerors:How Portugal Forged the First Global Empire),书中讲述了勇敢无畏、雄心勃勃而且干劲十足的葡萄牙探险家的故事,其中一个是巴尔托洛梅乌·迪亚士(Bartolomeu Dias),他们在海上失去多名同胞后,最终在一四八七年到达南非的最南端并绕行一圈。葡萄牙国王约翰二世将这个岬角命名为好望角(最后变成开普敦),因为他们想要寻找的财富就在东印度。

In the 1600s, the Dutch East India Company overtook the Portuguese and established resupply posts for their ships in the Cape area. The Dutch-style homes are testament to how favorable they found the place. Afrikaans is actually a dialect stemming from Dutch settlers, sometimes referred to as “kitchen Dutch.”

十七世纪,荷兰东印度公司取代了葡萄牙人,并在这个岬角为其航船建立再补给站。荷兰风格的房屋证明他们发现这个地方时的喜爱之情。事实上,南非语是源于荷兰殖民者的一种方言,有时也戏称为“厨房里的荷兰语”。

By the start of the 1900s, Britain had won full control of the country, and South Africa's gold and diamonds created many fortunes. Traveling via train from Pretoria to Cape Town, I stopped at the historical De Beers diamond area, where millionaires were created almost overnight in the late 1880s for those lucky few who discovered large diamonds there.

到二十世纪初,大不列颠完全控制了这个国家,同时南非的黄金和钻石创造了大量的财富。从比勒陀利亚乘坐火车到开普敦的途中,我停在历史悠久的德比尔斯钻石区参观,十九世纪八十年代末,少数幸运儿在这里发现了大量钻石,他们几乎是一夜之间就变成百万富翁。

My colleagues and I were able to see the “Big Hole,” an enormous crater in the ground that was dug out over the years by hand. Two brothers (Diederik Arnoldus De Beer and Johannes Nicolaas De Beer) had owned the land and rented out plots where diamond hunters could dig. Eventually, Cecil Rhodes (who became famous for the Rhodes scholarship, among other things) purchased and consolidated all the mines and became one of the world's richest men.

我和同事们看到了“大坑”,这是多年来人工在地下挖掘出来的一个巨大的坑。Diederik Arnoldus De Beer和Johannes Nicolaas De Beer两兄弟曾经拥有这片土地,他们分块出租给钻石猎人挖掘。最后,塞西尔·罗兹(罗氏奖学金是其闻名于世的其中一个原因)购买合并了所有钻石矿,成为世界上最富有的人之一。

There are, of course, many books and articles about South Africa's history and apartheid, a legacy the country still grapples with. The African National Congress (ANC) spearheaded the struggle to end apartheid, and by the 1990s, apartheid laws were abolished and the ANC's most notable political prisoner, Nelson Mandela, was released from jail.

当然,有很多书籍和文章描写了南非的历史和种族隔离,后者是该国一直在奋斗的一个历史遗留问题。非洲人国民大会(ANC)带头反抗种族隔离,到二十世纪九十年代,种族隔离法律被废除,ANC最著名的政治囚犯纳尔逊·曼德拉得以释放。

I had the opportunity to meet President F.W. de Klerk around that time and heard him describe the very difficult time he had reconciling his own party to the change.

那段时间,我有幸见到总统弗雷德里克·威廉·戴克拉克,他向我描述了他在自己政党内协调变革的艰难。

The meeting with President de Klerk was in his office in Cape Town and it was clear at that time that he and Mr. Mandela did not agree on a number of issues and he was quite frank about it. But his tolerance and patience shone through the challenges he was facing. His openness and strength of character made me confident that the political transition would work.

我与总统戴克拉克的会面是在他开普敦的办公室里,很明显,当时他和曼德拉先生在很多问题上存在分歧,他对此直言不讳。但在面对各种挑战时,他表现出忍让和耐心。他的开通和坚毅让我相信这个国家会实现政治转折。

Since then, the country has become known as the “Rainbow Nation,” not only because of its multicultural diversity but also because of its tolerance. For example, South Africa was one of the first countries to legalize gay marriage.

从那以后,这个国家就被称为“彩虹国度”,不仅是因为她的多元文化,还因为她的包容性。例如,南非是最先承认同性婚姻合法化的国家之一。

The ANC won by a massive majority in South Africa's first universal elections in 1994, and has continued to win subsequent elections. Unfortunately, the government change has not substantially improved the economic situation for the majority of people previously denied political and social freedoms; unemployment levels hit a 13-year high of 27% in 2016.1 Poverty remains prevalent, and in 2014, the United Nations Human Development Index of South Africa ranked the country 116 out of 188 countries and territories. The country has failed to significantly improve its standing since the 1990s.2

ANC在南非一九九四年第一次普选中以绝对多数票数获胜,并在随后的大选中持续胜出。遗憾的是,政府变革并没有实质性地改善先前拒绝政治和社会自由的大多数人的经济状况;二零一六年失业率达到27%,为13年来最高水平。1贫困依然是那么普遍,二零一四年,南非在联合国人类发展指数188个国家和地区中排名第116名。自二十世纪九十年代以来,该国一直未能显著提升其国家地位。2

The ANC's previous dominance is beginning to crack amid South Africa's lack of economic progress. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), founded by the radical Julius Malema—former president of the ANC's Youth League who was thrown out of the ANC—has been rising in popularity.

在经济进步乏力的环境下,ANC之前的绝对优势开始瓦解。激进派朱利叶斯•马莱马(Julius Malema)建立了经济自由战士党(经自战党),他是被ANC除名的ANC青年联盟前主席,其党派越来越受到欢迎。

If South Africa's economic situation doesn't improve, attracting the young and unemployed could make the EFF a more potent force. Opposition parties have been gaining control of key cities, and their strength has increased when they are able to better provide services such as water, power and public transport.

如果南非的经济形势不改善,无法吸引年轻人和失业者,经自战党的势力会变得更加庞大。反对党已得到了主要城市的控制权,因为能够提供更好的服务,例如水、电和公共运输,他们的势力在不断增强。

Since taking office in 2009, Jacob Zuma's administration has been plagued with scandals and allegations of nepotism. One political blunder was the appointment of a finance minister many saw as unqualified—who was then quickly replaced after a dramatic market reaction.

雅各布·祖马(Jacob Zuma)政府自二零零九年上台以来,一直被任人唯亲的丑闻和指控缠身。其中一个政治错误是任命外界认为无法胜任的财政部长,后者因为市场反应激烈很快被撤换掉。

Despite setbacks, the ANC still supports Zuma, and it seems that he will be able to survive his second and final term, which ends in 2019. Some analysts say that over the next two years, the ANC will likely become increasingly subject to competing factions, resulting in government paralysis and potential for further downgrades in the country's credit ranking. The country's economic growth has also suffered, although we are seeing signs of improvement on the horizon.

虽然几经周折,但ANC依然支持祖马,看起来他应该能够继续他的第二(最后)任期,直到二零一九年结束。部分分析师认为,未来两年ANC将会产生越来越多竞争派系,从而导致政府瘫痪,同时有可能会导致该国的信用评级进一步被下调。该国的经济增长同样深受其苦,但可看到改善的迹象正初露端倪。

Economic Growth

经济增长

South Africa has been lacking any real growth drivers over the past year, and estimates for 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) remain lackluster, albeit slightly better than in 2016. The International Monetary Fund is projecting growth of 0.8% this year, while the South African Treasury predicts growth of 1.3%.3

去年南非一直缺乏实质增长动力,二零一七年国内生产总值预测虽然比二零一六年稍高,但依然黯淡。国际货币基金组织预测南非今年增长0.8%,而南非财政部的增长预测则为1.3%。3

On the fiscal side, the government is trying to manage the deficit as best it can with finance minister Pravin Gordhan at the helm, but the slow economy and a small but highly taxed base makes it harder to grow government revenues. Revenue is dependent on a healthy tax base, but the percentage of households receiving at least one social grant increased to 45.5% in 2015 from 29.9% in 2003.4

财政方面,政府正尽其所能地尝试管理赤字,由财政部长Pravin Gordhan掌舵,但经济增长缓慢加上小而高的课税基础,使得增加政府收入变得更加困难。收入有赖于稳健的课税基础,但至少领取一份社会救济的家庭的比例却从二零零三年的29.9%上升至二零一五年的45.5%。4

Higher food and fuel prices ignited inflation last year, but we believe better rains, more abundant crops and a stronger currency should help prices stabilize, along with interest rate stabilization or even a rate cut. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic but think the situation will remain tough. The South African consumer will likely continue to remain under pressure from higher utilities, transport costs, low wage growth and constrained credit.

去年较高的食品和燃料价格推升通胀,但我们认为较充足的降雨量、较高的农作物收成和货币走强应有助于稳定价格,利率企稳或甚至减息亦能稳定价格。整体上,我们感到审慎乐观,但认为经济形势将持续低迷。南非的消费者有可能会继续承受来自较高的水电费、运输成本、低工资增长和信贷紧缩的压力。

South Africa's debt position is not as bad as some other countries' (including Brazil), although the government debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 46% today from 25%–30% in 2008.5 There is a general consensus among observers that plenty of government waste exists, with unnecessary spending, corruption, public sector inefficiencies and inflated pricing. At the same time, the government's wage bill is rather high; the number of people employed in the public sector increased to 2.69 million at the end of the 2014 from 2.16 million in 2008.6

虽然,南非政府债务占国内生产总值的比率从二零零八年的25%–30%升至当前的46%,但情况并没有其他部分国家(包括巴西)那么糟糕。5市场观察者一致认为该国存在政府大量浪费、不必要的开支、腐败、公共部门低效率和物价飞涨等问题。另外,政府的工资账单相当高;公共部门的就业人数从二零零八年的216万人上升至二零一四年底的269万人。6

Consumer Themes: Finance and Retail  

消费主题:金融和零售

Consumer finance is a big business in South Africa and one we were interested in learning more about from an investment standpoint. Aggressive and innovative firms and retailers have been able to penetrate lower income groups that major banks had not previously serviced. The executives at a consumer finance firm my colleagues and I visited told us the company has been adding thousands of new customers every month and is servicing millions of clients. Looking at the economic environment, they said despite the county's high unemployment rate and high risk of unsecured lending, they have a wide gap between the average lending rate and cost of funds, which has brought in good profits. However, they noted the default rate is rather high.

消费金融是南非的一大产业,而且从投资角度来看,我们有兴趣了解更多。有干劲和创新的公司及零售商能够渗透到大银行以往未曾服务过的较低收入群体。我和同事拜访的一间消费金融公司的高管们告知,公司每个月增加数以千计的新客户,而且他们正服务成千上万的客户。展望经济环境,他们表示,尽管该国失业率及无担保贷款风险高,但平均贷款利率及资金成本之间的差距巨大,能为他们带来丰厚的利润。但表示违约率相当高。

South Africa essentially has a multi-tier economy with consumers at various levels of income, education and access to technology. While in many parts of the world banks are closing fully staffed physical branches and replacing them with ATMs or computer links, I was a bit surprised to hear of plans to increase physical branches in South Africa. Physical branches are still needed in order to interact with lower-income customers who are not familiar with banking and need the face-to-face interaction. The officers told us that in many cases, personal financial education is needed with the customers to ensure they understand payment schedules and the like. The firm we visited also has a dedicated information technology staff, of course, and can do credit checks in seconds.

南非实质上是一个多层次的经济体,消费者的收入水平、受教育程度及接触科技的难易度各不相同。虽然,全球很多地区的银行正在关闭其人员配备齐全的实体网点,取而代之的是自动柜员机或电脑链接,但南非计划增加实体网点让我有点惊讶。为了与不熟悉银行业及需要面对面互动的低收入客户交流,实体网点仍有必要存在。高管们告诉我们,在很多情况下,客户的个人金融教育是必要的,这能够确保他们了解付款时间表及诸如此类的问题。我们拜访的公司亦有专门的信息技术人员,当然,他们可以在数秒内完成信用核查。

South Africa has a large and established formal retail market. We visited a fashion and household goods retailer that also had an internal financial services division providing credit to consumers. Like many other South African firms, it has been able to expand overseas via acquisition.

南非有着庞大而且成熟的正规零售市场。我们拜访了一名时装及日用商品零售商,其亦设有内部金融服务部门,向消费者提供信贷。像南非很多其他公司一样,这间公司已经能够通过收购进行海外扩张。

A South African supermarket chain we visited likewise had grown and expanded into other African countries and also into other lines of business. The management we spoke with felt the potential for Africa was huge relative to other markets, including Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. Nevertheless, poor infrastructure in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa has presented a challenge to expansion there.

我们参观的一间南非连锁超市同样已发展及扩张至非洲其他国家,同时扩展其他业务。和我们谈话的管理层觉得,相对于东欧、拉丁美洲及亚洲等其他市场,非洲市场潜力巨大。然而,撒哈拉以南非洲国家的基建落后,这是他们在这些国家扩张业务所面临的挑战。

Internet penetration in the retail business is low in South Africa; various reports show online sales of general merchandise, electronics and clothing are only about 1% of total sales. Improved internet infrastructure and penetration has been a barrier to growth. However, things do seem to be improving as more high-speed fiber cable is being laid, and the mobile networks have been improving coverage and data speed in the country. One firm we visited has a growing business laying fiber optic cable to meet the growing high-speed internet demands.

南非零售业务的互联网普及率低;各种报告显示,日用商品、电子产品及服装的网上销售额仅占总销售额的1%。互联网基建及普及率一直是增长的阻碍。然而,随着该国铺设越来越多高速光纤电缆,以及移动网络覆盖率及数据传输速度的提高,事情似乎正在改善。我们参观了一间公司,其不断增长铺设光纤电缆的业务,以满日益上升的高速互联网需求。

An executive told us many South Africans were apprehensive about purchasing clothing online, preferring to go into a store and try garments on. He expects spending patterns to change, with the younger generations now more comfortable shopping online and embracing foreign brands, too.

一位高管告诉我们,很多南非人不放心在网上购买衣服,他们宁愿去商店试穿后购买。他预期消费模式会改变,而且如今年轻的一代更习惯于网购以及青睐国外品牌。

While South Africa has its challenges, the consumer sector is one where we continue to search for potential opportunities. We think economic improvement and the increased spread and acceptance of technology could prove drivers for companies in this space.

虽然南非面临诸多挑战,但消费行业乃我们继续寻找潜在机会的领域之一。我们认为,经济改善及科技传播及接受程度加深能为该行业公司的发展提供动力。

In my next blog, I will outline the main issues and areas of the South African economy that we are watching as investors.

在我的下一篇博客中,我将以投资者身份概述我们正在关注的南非经济的主要问题及领域。

Mark Mobius's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

麦朴思博士的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。该材料不作为有关任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略任何重大事件的完整分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labor Force Survey, November 2016.

1.资料来源:南非国家统计局,季度劳动力调查,二零一六年十一月。

2. Source: United Nations Development Programme, “Human Development Report 2015,” Human Development Index.

2.资料来源:联合国开发计划署《2015年人类发展报告》,人类发展指数。

3. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2017. National Treasury Republic of South Africa, 2017 Annual Budget Review. There is no assurance that any estimate, projection or forecast will be realized.

3.资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》更新,二零一七年一月。南非共和国财政部《2017年年度预算审核》。不保证任何推测、估计或预测会实现。

4. Source: Statistics South Africa, “General Household Survey 2015.”

4.资料来源:南非国家统计局《2015年综合住户统计调查》。

5. Source: National Treasury Republic of South Africa, 2017 Annual Budget.

5.资料来源:南非共和国财政部《2017年年度预算审核》。

6. Sources: Statistics South Africa, Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings, United Nations University, “Demographic, Employment and Wage Trends in South Africa,” June 2016.

6.资料来源:南非国家统计局,布鲁金斯学会非洲增长倡议(Africa Growth Initiative),联合国大学《南非人口、就业及工资趋势》,二零一六年六月。

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