南非:关键问题与挑战
South Africa: Key Issues and Challenges
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2019-12-20 13:53
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As I've previously written, I had the opportunity to visit South Africa recently and meet with a number of executives at companies there, as well as talk to people and observe various trends. It's important to note that we at Templeton Emerging Markets Group pursue an active, bottom-up approach to investing. Even if things look bleak overall in a country, there are always potential opportunities to be unearthed. If we believe a company's fundamentals appear sound and long-term prospects bright, we will invest where we see value potential. With that in mind, I would like to outline some of the key issues South Africa's economy is facing that we are watching as investors.

正如在之前的博文中写道,我最近有机会到南非一游,拜访了当地很多公司的高层,与当地的人们交流,并考察了各方面的趋势。需要重点注意的是,邓普顿新兴市场团队推崇主动管理、自下而上的投资方法。即使一个国家整体上看希望缥缈,但我们总会挖掘到潜在的机会。如果我们认为一家公司的基本面看起来稳健,而且长期前景明朗,我们会在发现潜在价值时进行投资。基于这一点,我会从投资者的角度,概述我们正关注的南非经济所面临的一些关键问题。

Education

教育

One of the most important areas of concern in South Africa is education. Without an educated population, a country cannot progress not only in terms of economic development but also because of political development. In South Africa, just like in other parts of the world, parents have a strong desire to see their children progress and have a good life; hence, families are willing to make sacrifices for education. Unfortunately, the government has not been able to supply enough classroom spaces for those of school age and many existing government facilities in low-income areas offer poor-quality education.

教育是南非关注的最重要的领域之一。国民没有受到教育,国家的经济不会取得发展,政治亦然。像世界上其他地区和国家一样,南非的父母也迫切希望自己的孩子进步并过上好日子,因此,每个家庭都愿意为教育投入。但遗憾的是,政府没有办法为适龄孩子提供足够的教室,很多低收入地区现有的政府机构能提供的教育水平很低。

Part of the problem is tied to budget constraints, but there are also administrative and corruption issues. Corruption Watch, a non-government organization, said that between 2012 and 2015 it received more than 1,000 reports of school principals who had stolen cash from school bank accounts.1 It also reported school principal posts are so lucrative they are bought and sold.

这个问题有一部分由预算限制所致,但也存在行政管理和腐败问题。非政府组织贪腐观察(Corruption Watch)称,二零一二年至二零一五年期间,其收到1,000多宗校长窃取学校银行账户现金的报告。[1]该组织还报告称校长职位很赚钱,因此出现买卖校长职位的做法。

As a result of these problems, a thriving private-school market has emerged in South Africa. One private-school firm we visited had more than 100 schools and was expanding rapidly, with more new schools opening each year. Given capacity and quality issues in government schools, as well as a lack of schools in newly developing areas, middle-class families are seeking to enroll their children in lower-cost private schools in greater numbers.

由这些问题使然,南非出现了民办学校市场,而且欣欣向荣。我们拜访的一间民办学校企业拥有超过100所学校,而且在快速扩张,每一年都会开设更多新学校。由于公立学校的能力和素质问题,加上新开发地区缺乏学校,中产家庭谋求让孩子到数量更多而费用较低的民办学校上学。

The school personnel we spoke with said even poor parents would sacrifice a substantial portion of their income to send their children to these schools, in an attempt to get them the best education possible. Some of the families lived in wood and corrugated steel shacks with no running water or inside toilets. The firm's management has been working on a “plug-and-play” model where schools can be established all over the country with a centralized head office that manages information technology, curriculum materials, site locations and overall management.

在交流的过程中学校人员表示,即便贫穷,家长也会拿出大部分收入让孩子到这些学校上学,就为了尽可能让孩子们得到最好的教育。有的家庭住在木屋和铁皮棚里,没有自来水或者室内洗手间。该公司应用“即插即用”的管理模式,他们能够在全国范围内建学校,由总公司集中管理信息技术、课程教材、校址和整体管理。

Also looking at the government schools, I learned the range of quality varies greatly. Driving through one of the high- income neighborhoods of Cape Town, I saw a beautiful school with excellent buildings and all kinds of sport facilities. I learned students attending that school scored among the highest in academic standards in the country.

公立学校方面,我所了解到的质量天差地别。开车经过开普敦一个高收入小区的时候,我看到一所漂亮的学校,建有优质的建筑物并配备各种类型的运动设备。我了解到,考入那间学校的是全国考试最高分的学生。

However, other government schools have overcrowding and very low standards. A school's local governing body can charge additional fees to students to maintain certain standards, facilities, etc., which means the quality of education is better in wealthier neighborhoods, where families can afford high fees, than in poor neighborhoods where families can't.

然而,其他公立学校人满为患,而且标准极低。为了维持特定的标准和条件等,学校的地方主管部门可以向学生收取额外的费用,这意味着,在家庭能承担高额费用的较富裕社区,教育质量较好,不能支付高额费用的贫困社区的教育质量则更低。

At government schools, teacher quality and training is seen as a problem, and apparently, it's not uncommon to find teachers with only a 10th-grade education themselves teaching students in grade 12. This is a legacy of the so-called “bantu” education system during apartheid years, which neglected teacher training for the black population. With the tremendous influence that education has on unemployment and economic advancement, we hope that this area sees some progress so even underprivileged children have access to a good education.

在公立学校,教师的素质和培养被视为一个显著的问题,自身受教育程度为10年级的教师去教授12年级学生的情况非常普遍。这是种族隔离期间所谓的“班图”教育体制遗留的产物,当时黑人教师的培训没有得到重视。鉴于教育对失业和经济进步存在巨大的影响,我们希望该领域能够取得更大的发展,从而让贫困儿童也能受到良好的教育。

Immigration

移民

A major challenge and opportunity for South Africa is immigration from other parts of Africa, with refugees seeking asylum from persecution or simply trying to find a way to make a living in one of Africa's richest economies. This includes many illegal immigrants. Competition for jobs means tension and violence between the refugees and local communities—along with poverty and crime. Middle- and upper-class South Africans are major clients for security services and gated communities.

对于南非来说,来自非洲其他地区的移民是重大的挑战和机遇,这些难民来此寻求庇护从而让其免遭迫害,或者只是试图在非洲最繁荣的经济体之一谋生。这其中包括很多非法移民。岗位竞争意味着难民和当地人之间的关系会变得紧张,同时引发暴力冲突、贫困和犯罪。南非的中产和上等阶层是安全服务和门禁社区的主要客户。

While it's difficult to make direct comparisons, the private security industry in South Africa—with some 9,000 registered companies and more than 400,000 private security guards—is among the world's largest on a per-capita basis and employs more than the local police.2 However, crime cannot be attributed only to immigrants and a general lack of law enforcement is also a factor. Immigration can have a positive impact and, as we have seen in other parts of the world, immigrants have made tremendous contributions to the economy and culture of the countries they have entered.

虽然难以进行直接比较,但在南非的私人安保行业中,约有9,000间注册公司和超过400,000名私人保安,人均基础属全球最高行列,同时雇佣人数超过当地警察。[2]然而,犯罪不能只归咎于移民,法律实施普遍缺失也是其中一个因素。移民能够产生积极的影响,如我们在全球其他地区所见,移民可为其进入的国家的经济和文化作出巨大的贡献。

Infrastructure and Inequality

基础设施与不平等

South Africa's economy is the second largest in Africa after Nigeria but with substantially better infrastructure. It boasts a relatively high GDP per capita compared with other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, but it also has extremes of wealth and poverty. Hundreds of tin and scrap-wood shacks lie in the shadow of multimillion-dollar mansions with incredible ocean views. The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, ranks South Africa as one of the world's most unequal societies.3

南非是非洲第二大经济体,仅次于尼日利亚,但实质上南非的基建发展得更好。该国称其人均国内生产总值相对高于撒哈拉以南非洲其他国家,但贫富差距也极大。能看到美妙海景的价值数百万美元的大厦附近围着成百上千的窝棚。南非的基尼系数(用来衡量收入差距)显示其为全球最不平等的社会之一。[3]

The importance of African neighbors is highlighted when we look at southern Africa's electric power situation. Situated adjacent to Namibia, Mozambique, Botswana and Zimbabwe, South Africa has the advantage of sharing power resources with those neighboring countries. In Zimbabwe, a huge power plant built on a gorge of the Zambezi River supplies power to South Africa in times of shortages, while South African excess capacity is supplied when its neighbors face shortages.

谈到非洲的电力状况时,非洲邻国的重要性就显得更加突出。南非毗邻纳米比亚、莫桑比亚、博茨瓦纳和津巴布韦,占据与这些邻国共用电力资源的优势。津巴布韦在赞比西河的峡谷建立一间巨大的发电厂,在电力不足时为南非供电,而当邻国供电不足时,南非的供电则过剩。

Labor Issues

劳工问题

The government's Black Economic Empowerment policies have drawn criticism from some economists, because although it has resulted in some individuals becoming wealthy, it has not addressed the broader masses. Nevertheless, black empowerment is a key government initiative. Restrictive labor regulations and a lack of skills and educational development have contributed to large-scale unemployment, which remains problematic.

政府的黑人经济振兴政策已遭到部分经济学家的诟病,因为即使该政策让部分人变得富有,但并没有解决广大群众的问题。虽说如此,但黑人振兴是一个关键的政府计划。限制性的劳动法规以及缺乏技能和教育发展已导致大规模的失业,这依然是个问题。

Several challenges have plagued the South African mining industry in particular over the past few years—a key driver of the country's economy. Besides declining commodity prices, labor union rivalry escalated labor issues, resulting in one of the more prolonged and violent strikes in the country's history. Various labor-related issues, including onerous regulations and weak commodity prices saw some mining companies sell off less profitable operations and pursue layoffs where they were allowed, but an uptick in metals prices could aid the sector and help drive better economic growth this year.

过去几年以来,若干难题一直严重阻碍南非矿业的发展——该行业是南非经济发展的一个关键推动力。除了商品价格下跌外,工会对抗扩大了劳工问题,引发该国史上一场较为持久及暴力的罢/工运动。由于监管繁重等各种劳工相关问题和商品价格疲软,部分矿业公司已廉价出售利润较低的业务,并在允许的范围内裁员,但金属价格上升可支持该行业,并有助于推动今年更高的经济增长。

Land Reform

土地改革

Land reform has been a crucial topic since the end of apartheid. In 2015, President Jacob Zuma said he was seeking a ban on foreign land ownership, as well as limiting the total area of land holdings to 12,000 hectares per individual of any nationality. The government planned to purchase excess land above this limit and redistribute it. In 2017, Zuma said he would speed up the land reform program. The method of execution was to be the Expropriation Bill, but the Constitutional Court halted the land reform process for 18 months. The court said Parliament had to fix the Land Restitution Bill first before it could start allowing new land claims. The bill was passed into law in 2014 and allowed people who missed a 1998 deadline to lodge land claims. South Africa's government estimates it would require between US$9 billion and US$13 billion to settle new land claims.

自种族隔离结束以来,土地改革一直是一个至关重要的主题。二零一五年,总统雅各布·祖玛寻求一项外国公民土地拥有权的禁令,并将任何国家的每个个体所持土地的总面积上限限制在12,000公顷。政府计划购买超出该上限的土地然后进行重新分配。二零一七年,祖玛表示其将加快土地改革进程。执行办法是《征收法案》,但土地改革进程被宪法/法院搁置了18个月。法院表示,在其开始允许新的土地申诉之前,国会须确立《土地归还法案》。该法案于二零一四年通过成为法律,允许错过一九九八年最后期限的人们提出土地申诉。南非政府估计,其将需要90至130亿美元来支付新的土地申诉。

The proposed law will probably have the greatest impact on commercial farmers, with a presidential spokesperson clarifying that the bill would be applied to agricultural land, not residential property. This includes local farmers, for whom limiting the land area of holdings would probably narrow the scope for economies of scale, if there is no distinction between grades of agricultural land.

该法案对商业农场主的影响可能最大,因为一名总统发言人澄清,该法案将应用于农用土地,而非住宅房地产。这将牵涉到当地的农民,如果农用土地的等级没有区别,那么对他们而言,限制持有的土地面积可能会缩小规模经济。

Apparently, the bill's introduction by the governing African National Congress (ANC) was designed to meet the criticism of the radical left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) who were pushing for expropriation of land without compensation because of the failure of the government's “willing-buyer willing-seller” model. To date, the ban on foreign land ownership or the limit of 12,000 hectares has not come into effect. The EFF was also calling for mine expropriations, but the ANC stopped it.

显然,非洲人国民大会(ANC)推出该法案旨在满足激进左翼经济自由战士党(经自战党)的苛刻要求,因为政府的“愿买愿卖”模式不奏效,他们力争在毫无赔偿的情况下征收土地。到目前为止,关于外国公民土地拥有权的禁令或12,000公顷限制尚未生效。经自战党还要求征收矿场,但被ANC制止。

State-Owned Enterprises

国有企业

The South African state owns about 700 firms, including railways, ports and a whole range of companies operating in various industries which are called “parastatals.” Pay for civil servants has increased much faster than inflation, and perks for high-ranking government ministers have increased rapidly as well. Naturally, the result is that everyone wants to work for the government and some observers say government payrolls have become too bloated. State-owned enterprises have also become increasingly inefficient and have been subject to mismanagement, thus putting a strain on government finances.

南非拥有大约700间国有企业,包括铁路、港口以及各种“半国有” 行业的所有公司。公务员薪资增长速度远快于通胀增长,高职位政府官员的津贴也快速增加。自然而然地,这导致每个人都想为政府打工,而且部分观察人士称政府薪资已变得过高。国有企业的效率也变得越来越低,再加上长期以来管理不当,导致政府财政变得更加紧张。

Privatization is one solution to addressing corruption and inefficiencies in the parastatals, which would result in greater transparency and adherence to profit targets. Fears of job losses have caused opposition to this approach.

私有化是解决半国有企业腐败和低效率的一个方案,将可提高透明度以及贯彻利润目标。失业的恐慌导致该方案遭到反对。

However, we have seen evidence that some steps are being taken to improve the performance of state-owned companies, including the hiring of outside consultants in some cases, to help find ways to boost revenue, including restructuring. The appointed consultants aren't without critics though.

然而,该国已采取一些措施来提高国有企业的表现,包括在某些情况下聘用外部顾问来想方设法提高收益,包括重组。但被任命的顾问并非没有受到批评。

Travel and Tourism

旅行与旅游业

Meanwhile, tourism offers a bright spot for the economy. South Africa remains a favorite travel destination, with readers of the United Kingdom's Telegraph rating Cape Town “the World's Best City” in 2016 and The New York Times putting Cape Town at the top of its “52 Places to Go” list in 2014. The International Council of Societies of Industrial Design also named the city its “World Design Capital 2014.”

另外,旅游业是经济的一个亮点。南非依然是一个最受喜爱的旅游目的地,2016年开普敦被英国《每日电讯报》评为“世界最佳城市”(the World’s Best City),还在2014年位列《纽约/时报》“全球52个最佳旅游目的地”榜首。国际工业设计协会也将开普敦评为“2014年世界设计之都”。

Nelson Mandela's first speech as a free man was made from the balcony of Cape Town City Hall. At the trendy Victoria and Alfred Waterfront are statues of South Africa's four Nobel Peace Prize winners: Albert Luthuli, Desmond Tutu, F. W. de Klerk and Nelson Mandela. Unlike other parts of the country the ANC has dominated, the Democratic Alliance (DA) controls the Western Cape, winning an outright majority in the 2011 elections and putting Helen Zille, the then-leader of the DA, as the premier of the province.

纳尔逊·曼德拉获释后第一场演讲就是在开普敦市政厅前大广场上发表的。在时尚的维多利亚阿尔弗雷德码头广场,矗立着南非四位诺贝尔和平奖得主的雕像:艾伯特·卢图利、德斯蒙德·图图、弗雷德里克·威廉·德克勒克和纳尔逊·曼德拉。与ANC控制的其他地方不同,西开普由民主联盟(DA)控制,该党在2011年大选中赢得大多数选票,将DA当时的领袖海伦·齐勒推上西开普省总理之位。

Cape Town has been growing at a good pace because of the booming flow of tourists attracted to its famous beaches and attractions. The city's technology industry is also enjoying a boom.

得益于著名的海滩和旅游胜地吸引了大量游客,开普敦一直在快速发展。这个城市的科技行业的发展也蒸蒸日上。

On my visit to Cape Town, crowded shopping centers were an indication that tourism was alive and well. It was difficult to find restaurants with available seats. Prior visa restrictions were a major barrier for many foreign tourists, but the elimination of more onerous policies helped revive the tourist flow. I personally found the entry process to the country easy. When I landed at Cape Town airport, I didn't have to complete an immigration form and simply handed my passport to the immigration officer who looked at it, scanned it, then gave it back to me with a smile. I was on my way quickly.

我在参观开普敦时发现很多购物中心都人潮涌动,这表明其旅游业正朝气蓬勃地快速发展。我们很难找到有空位的餐厅。早前的签证限制将很多外国游客拒之门外,但消除比较繁杂的政策后重新受到游客的青睐。我切身体会到该国入关程序的简便。在开普敦机场降落后,我不需要填写入境表格,只是将护照交给入境关员检查、扫描即可,交还护照时还得到一个微笑。我很快就可以开始我的旅程。

Despite all the political and economic challenges facing South Africa, the people's desire for a better life with better education for their children, strong domestic institutions, full employment opportunities and faster economic growth means that the future can be much brighter.

虽然南非面临各种政治和经济挑战,但人们渴望得到更好的生活,孩子受到更好的教育、强大的国家政府、充分的就业机会和更快的经济增长意味着未来会变得更加光明。

While progress has been slow, we do see signs that some of the factors constraining growth in 2016 may be improving, including a rise in commodity prices globally and ebbing of crippling worker strikes in the country.

虽然发展缓慢,但我们确实看到二零一六年约束增长的因素有好转的迹象,包括全球商品价格上升以及该国后果严重的工人罢/工潮正在退潮。

We must not forget that South Africa is an important economy in terms of consumption and production (particularly in minerals) and that many South African companies have operations throughout Africa. That broad exposure to the continent opens up tremendous opportunities in our view, as Africa has some of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Even though per-capita incomes are low now, that means starting from that low base, growth rates could be remarkable. And in many cases, that means opportunities for South African companies will open the door to further growth, too.

我们须谨记,南非是一个重要消费和生产(尤其是矿物)经济体,另外很多南非企业已扩张到整个非洲。非洲拥有全球一些发展最快的经济体,这些公司在非洲大范围地扩张带来了大量机会。虽然目前人均收入较低,但这意味着起点基础低,增长率会相当大。而且在很多情况下,这也意味着南非企业的机会将会打开进一步增长的大门。

South Africa has a lot to celebrate. It successfully ended apartheid, launched a democratic government with national participation and avoided the mass chaos that has afflicted other African countries transitioning from colonial to democratic control. The challenge now is to continue to pursue the economic and political conditions that will spread the wealth throughout the population and provide an example for the rest of Africa and the world.

南非有很多值得庆祝的地方。她成功结束了种族隔离,实施全民参与的民主政制,还避免了从殖民地向民主统治过渡过程中折磨其他非洲国家的大规模混乱。该国现时的挑战是继续改善经济和政治状况,向全国所有人群传播财富,同时为非洲和世界其他国家树立榜样。

Mark Mobius's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

麦朴思博士的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。该材料不作为有关任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略任何重大事件的完整分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Corruption Watch, “Loss of Principle,” October 2015.

[1] 资料来源:Corruption Watch“Loss of Principle”,二零一五年十月。

2. Sources: Private Security Regulatory Authority 2013–2014 annual report; International Trade Administration; the Graduate Institute of Geneva Small Arms Survey 2011.

[2] 资料来源:私人安保管理局《2013–2014年度报告》;国际贸易管理局;日内瓦高级国际关系学院《2011年小型武器调查》。

3. Source: Statistics South Africa, “Poverty Trends in South Africa: An Examination of Absolute Poverty Between 2006 and 2011.”

[3] 资料来源:南非国家统计局,“南非的贫困趋势:2006年与2011年之间的绝对贫困调查”(Poverty Trends in South Africa: An Examination of Absolute Poverty Between 2006 and 2011)。

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