巴西的政治冲击
Brazil's Political Bumps
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2019-12-19 16:05
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Just when Brazil’s economy seemed to be turning a corner, a new political scandal has caused a strong market reaction, sending Brazil’s stock market into a tailspin. President Michel Temer, who came into office following the impeachment of former President Dilma Rouseff due to a corruption scandal, is now caught up in a corruption scandal of his own.

正当巴西经济似乎要转弯之际,该国又爆出新的政治丑闻,引起市场激烈反应,巴西股市陷入一片混乱。前总统罗塞夫因腐败丑闻被弹劾后上台的总统特梅尔,目前也被卷入一桩腐败丑闻中。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、西班牙文版

If Temer is found not guilty, Brazil’s next general election takes place in 2018, so he would remain in office two more years and presumably continue to pursue his agenda. If he is found guilty, he would likely be impeached and removed from office, like Rouseff was.

如果特梅尔经证实无罪,巴西下一次大选将在二零一八年举行,所以他还能在位两年,大概也会继续推行他的改革计划。反之,则有可能重蹈罗塞夫的覆辙,被弹劾然后被罢免。

While we have been encouraged by Temer’s more reform-minded government, in our view this latest scandal doesn’t mean that momentum will necessarily end—even if he’s removed from office.

特梅尔改革觉悟更高的政府让我们备受鼓舞,我们认为,最近这次丑闻并不意味着该势头一定会结束,即使他被罢免。

If Temer were to be removed from office, we believe there will still be reforms, although they will likely take longer to implement. The bottom line is that the reform movement against corruption is ongoing, and that is overall positive for Brazil. Even if Temer himself may not be able to carry out the reforms he is now supervising, we think the reformists can move forward since they already have a momentum of their own. There is a realization that reform is needed in many areas, but it often takes time.

如果特梅尔被罢免,我们相信改革仍将继续推进,尽管实施可能需要更长时间。最主要的是反腐改革运动持续进行,这整体上利好巴西。即使特梅尔目前被监控,可能无法亲自实施改革,但改革主义者早已势头满满,他们会向前迈进。很多领域都需要改革,这是一个现实,但改革往往需要时间。

These developments emphasize the importance of taking a long-term view when investing in emerging markets. Change doesn’t happen overnight.

这些事态的发展强调了投资新兴市场要有长远目光的重要性。改变不会一蹴而就。

We think there are still plenty of opportunities on an individual-stock level in Brazil, and these types of market shocks can unlock values. We are currently seeing value in almost every sector in Brazil, simply because the market is depressed in all directions. Most interesting to us are the banking and retail sectors.

巴西的个股依然存在大量机会,而且这样的市场震荡能够释放股票价值。我们目前发现,巴西几乎每个行业都存在价值,皆因市场无处不萧条。我们最感兴趣的是银行和零售行业。

In terms of monetary policy in Brazil, in my view, there is still room for Brazil’s central bank to cut interest rates further. Its currency has seen a recovery from its lows hit on May 18 when the Temer scandal broke. More importantly, there has been a steady downturn in inflation. Brazil’s annual inflation rate stood at 3.77% in mid-May, its lowest level in 10 years.1

巴西的货币政策方面,我们认为巴西央行还有进一步减息的空间。其货币已从五月十八日爆出特梅尔丑闻后的低位反弹。更重要的是,通胀已在稳步下降。五月中旬巴西的年度通胀率达到3.77%,这是十年来的最低水平。1

In my view, an aggressive cut in interest rates would be very good for the economy. I think it’s about time that Brazil had a reasonable interest-rate environment, particularly for small- and medium-sized businesses which could then get financing at lower rates. This could give an overall boost to the economy.

我们认为,大幅减息将极有利于经济。巴西目前拥有一个合理的利率环境,尤其是对中小企业而言,它们能够以较低利率融资。这将全面促进经济发展。

We will of course be monitoring the situation in Brazil to determine what type of impact this latest setback has on Brazil’s economy and the businesses operating there. In my view, the setback is temporary; we have seen other markets bounce back from political scandals in the past. The ongoing, longer-term recovery of Brazil’s stock market and economy still looks to us to be intact.

当然,我们正在监控巴西的局势,从而确定最近的回挫会对巴西的经济和在该国运营的企业产生什么影响。我们认为,这次回调是暂时性的,过去也曾有其他市场能够从政治丑闻中反弹。在我们看来,巴西股市和经济的较长期持续性复苏趋势依然没有改变。

The author's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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