东南亚海上之旅
An Ocean Voyage in Southeast Asia
1900字
2019-12-19 16:17
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文版

0417_Cruise_Ship

Air travel is a quick and convenient way to get from one place to the next, but sometimes it's nice to slow down and enjoy the journey. Traveling by sea gives you time to contemplate what you've seen at different ports of call, from sleepy seaports to bustling shipping and shopping centers.

从一个地方到另一个地方,航空旅行不失为一种快捷方便的方式,但偶尔放慢速度来享受旅程也很美好。海上旅行让你有时间沉思在不同停靠港的所见所闻,从寂静的港口到忙乱的航运和购物中心。

I recently embarked on an ocean voyage to the countries of Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam in Southeast Asia, a region we've been quite interested in since we first started investing in emerging markets in 1987.

我最近开启了泰国、柬埔寨和越南等东南亚国家的海上之旅,自一九八七年第一次开始投资新兴市场开始,我们就对这个地区颇感兴趣。

My colleagues and I departed from Singapore and our first stop was Koh Samui, Thailand's second-largest island after Phuket. It took about 14 hours to reach Koh Samui, where I hoped to gain insight into Thailand's thriving tourist industry. The island is almost exclusively dependent upon tourists, although it also has a fishing industry as well as coconut and rubber plantations.

我和同事们从新加坡出发,第一站是仅次于泰国普吉岛的第二大岛屿苏梅岛。航行大约14个小时后抵达苏梅岛,我希望在此深入了解泰国繁荣的旅游业。该岛几乎完全依赖旅游业,但也有渔业以及椰子和橡胶园。

While small in size and population, Koh Samui offers magnificent scenery. Tourists from mainland Thailand and other parts of the world are attracted to its beautiful sandy beaches, coconut trees, balmy tropical weather and clear blue waters.

虽然面积不大且人口较少,但苏梅岛有着壮丽的风景。岛上有美丽的沙滩、椰子树、宜人的热带气候和澄净湛蓝的海水,泰国大陆和世界其他地区的游客纷纷慕名而至。

While more than a million people arrive at the island's airport each year, my colleagues and I docked at the main port of Nathon, which is also the center of the island's fishing industry. I also noticed car/passenger ferries connecting the island to the Thai mainland there.

虽然每年超过一百万人抵达岛上的飞机场,但我和我的同事则停靠在那通镇的主要港口,这里也是岛上渔业的中心。我也注意到,这里有通往泰国大陆的汽车/客运渡轮。

A stream of small-boat traffic in addition to huge luxury liners and high-speed catamarans jetting passengers to Bangkok and other Thai ports provided an indication of the state of the island's economy. Thailand's rate of economic growth has been lagging that of some of its neighbors in the region over the past few years, so I was keen to see if things seemed to be picking up and where there may be potential investment opportunities.

除巨大的豪华游轮和高速双体船运载游客至曼谷和泰国其他港口外,大量小轮船运载也是该岛经济状况的象征。在过去几年,泰国经济增长率落后于该地区的部分邻国,因此我很想看看情况是否有好转,以及寻找潜在的投资机会。

In Nathon town, I explored the many small shops selling souvenirs as well as open-market stalls selling a variety of tropical fruits for which Thailand is famous. There was even a very well-equipped gym catering to locals and tourists.

在那通镇上,我探究了许多卖纪念品的小商店,以及卖各种泰国有名的热带水果的大排档。为了迎合当地人和游客的需求,这里甚至有一个设备十分齐全的健身房。

There were a few small hotels in town, with larger hotels scattered along the coast on other parts of the island, including a luxury resort catering to affluent foreigners.

镇上有一些小旅店,岛上沿着海岸的其他地方分布着较大的酒店,包括招揽富裕外国人的豪华度假村。

Tourist sites included beautiful waterfalls and an enormous Buddha statue where people were paying homage not only to Buddha but also to Guanyin, the Goddess of mercy and compassion.

旅游景点包括美丽的瀑布和一尊巨大的佛像,在佛像面前,人们不仅向佛陀致敬,也对慈悲为怀的观音表达敬意。

I'm a history buff, so I was interested to learn the very first settlers to the island were fishermen from the Malay Peninsula and southern China. Until the late 20th Century, the island was largely a self-sufficient community with little connection to the Thailand mainland.

我是个历史迷,因此我有兴趣了解到,原来岛上的第一批移居者是来自马来半岛和中国南方的渔民。在二十世纪末之前,该岛基本上处于自给自足的状态,与泰国大陆联系甚少。

After leaving Koh Samui, we headed to Bangkok's main port, Laem Chabang, where a major infrastructure expansion has been underway. The busy port, seen as a gateway to Southeast Asia, is able handle the largest vessels. It has container facilities capable of handling over six million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a unit of cargo capacity. Let's just say it's very large! The port is even capable of hosting aircraft carriers.

离开苏梅岛后,我们前往曼谷的主要港口林查班,这里正在扩建一个重要的基建项目。这个繁忙的港口被视为通往东南亚的大门,能够吞吐最大的船舶。其集装箱吞吐能力超过六百万个二十英尺的标准箱(载货容积单位)。我们只能用非常巨大来形容这个港口。大到什么程度?这里甚至能够容纳航空母舰!

Although it's a port town with most of the businesses revolving about shipping in addition to an oil refinery, efforts have been made to promote Laem Chabang as a tourist center and alternative to the famous beach resort of Pattaya.

尽管这是一个港口城镇,除了炼油厂外,大多数企业都和海运有关,但人们一直致力于将林查班发展为旅游中心,让其能够媲美芭堤雅著名的海滩度假胜地。

New Frontiers in Cambodia

柬埔寨 新的前缘市场

Next, we cruised on to Cambodia, considered a frontier market.

接下来,我们航行至被视为前缘市场的柬埔寨。

In Cambodia

As a side note, frontier markets have generally been off to a strong start this year as many investors have recognized the fast growth these markets have generally seen, and potential benefits of diversifying into them.

说句题外话,由于很多投资者已意识到前缘市场普遍可见的快速发展,以及分散投资于这些市场的潜在益处,今年前缘市场普遍开局强劲。

In our view, frontier markets could offer exciting long-term investment opportunities, given robust fundamentals, including strong economic growth, access to resources and favorable demographic profiles, with additional possible benefits from improvements in technology, infrastructure and standards of governance. Additionally, market valuations for frontier corporations generally stand below those of their peers in developed markets.

在我们看来,前缘市场拥有稳健的基本面,包括经济增长强劲、享有各种资源及有利的人口结构,以及科技进步、基建改善及治理标准提高带来的其他潜在益处,可提供令人激动的长期投资机会。此外,前缘市场企业的估值通常低于发达市场的同类企业。

Cambodia has been experiencing particularly strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth, up more than 7% in 2015 and 2016 and estimated to rise 6.9% this year.1 Cambodia has been opening up its economy and foreign investment has been on the rise.

柬埔寨国内生产总值的增长尤其强劲,在二零一五年及二零一六年增长超过7%,今年估计会增长 6.9%。[1] 柬埔寨已开放其经济,而且境外投资一直在上升。

Many Western apparel and footwear companies in particular have set up shop in Cambodia, where labor costs are low and the population youthful. The garment and footwear industry is a key economic driver for the country and source of employment, along with tourism.

特别是很多西方服装和鞋类公司在柬埔寨开设了店铺,因为这里劳动力成本低而且人口年轻化。服装和鞋业是该国经济的关键推动力,也是就业以及旅游业发展的主要来源。

I've always been particularly fascinated with India's influence in Cambodia—which goes back to ancient times. The central temple complex in Angkor Wat was originally a Hindu temple dedicated to Vishnu and later converted to a Buddhist temple. Today, Buddhism remains the dominant—and official—religion in Cambodia.

我一直特别着迷印度对柬埔寨的影响,这些影响可追溯到远古时代。吴哥窟中央的大型佛寺最初是供奉毗湿奴的印度寺庙,其后转变成佛寺。如今,佛教仍为柬埔寨的主流和官方宗教。

In 1863, the Cambodians allowed the country to become a French protectorate and part of the French Indochinese administration which included Vietnam and Laos. Cambodia declared independence in 1953, but it wasn't all smooth sailing.

一八六三年,柬埔寨人让这个国家成为法国的保护国以及法国印度支那政府(包括越南和老挝)的一部分。柬埔寨在一九五三年宣布独立,但过程并非一帆风顺。

In Cambodia

In 1975, the Khmer Rouge conquered the capital Phnom Penh and installed the brutal Pol Pot regime, which started a massive extermination campaign of people deemed to be a threat, including many intellectuals. There are a number of estimates, but some say as many as three million Cambodians died—nearly half the population—in an attempt to wipe out any vestige of western civilization and return the country to an 11th Century agrarian model.

一九七五年,红色高棉攻占首都金边并建立残暴的波尔布特政权,开始恐怖的大规模屠杀,被害者当中有很多知识分子。关于死亡人数的估计有很多种,但有人说多达三百万柬埔寨人(接近一半人口),他们企图彻底消灭西方文明的所有痕迹,并使该国回归至十一世纪时的农耕社会。

Finally, a treaty signed in 1991 brought peace and opened the door to progress. Since then, the country has undergone a dramatic transformation into the modern era.

最终,一九九一年签订的协议带来了和平,同时打开了发展进步的大门。从那以后,该国轰轰烈烈地朝着现代社会转变。

On to Vietnam

前往越南

Leaving Cambodia, we headed to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, also considered a frontier-market country.

离开柬埔寨后,我们前往越南胡志明市,这里也被视为一个前缘市场国家。

We at Templeton Emerging Markets Group have been quite interested in Vietnam as an investment destination for quite some time, and given the tremendous progress the country has made we see more potential opportunities ahead.

邓普顿新兴市场团队对越南非常感兴趣,很长一段时间以来将其作为投资目的地,而且该国取得了巨大的进步,让我们看到了更多的潜在机会。

There have been a wave of privatizations in Vietnam, which has opened up new opportunities for investors and provided a tailwind for its equity market. After a strong performance in 2016, the benchmark Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index is up more than 7% year-to-date as of April 18.2

越南一波又一波的私有化为投资者开辟了新的机会,这也推动了其股市发展。继二零一六年的强劲表现后,年初至四月十八日,基准越南胡志明证交所指数升幅超过7%。[2]

My colleagues and I visited a conglomerate company in Vietnam engaged in a number of activities such as steel, steel pipe, construction equipment, furniture, cement, real estate and even animal-feed production. We got a good sense of a wide range of market sectors and found the management team capable and open to foreign investment.

我们参观了越南一间从事多种业务的综合公司,例如钢铁、钢管、建筑设备、家具、水泥、房地产,甚至是动物饲料生产等。我们对市场多种不同的行业有了良好的认识,并发现他们的管理团队精明能干也接受境外投资。

Given Vietnam's high rates of economic growth, we felt demand prospects generally looked good across many areas of the economy. In 2016, Vietnam experienced GDP growth of 6.2%, while GDP growth is forecast at 6.5% this year.3

考虑到越南经济高速增长,我们认为很多经济领域的需求前景应该普遍不错。二零一六年,越南国内生产总值增长6.2%,而今年的国内生产总值增长预期为6.5%。[3]

My short trip through the waters of Southeast Asia indicated to me that Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam were progressing nicely not only on the tourism front, but also in the industrial arena. I look forward to further exploring potential investment opportunities in these countries in more detail.

我从这次短暂的东南亚海上之旅发现,泰国、柬埔寨和越南不仅在旅游业方面发展迅猛,工业发展也蒸蒸日上。我期待更进一步仔细探索这些国家的潜在投资机会。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

1. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2017. There is no assurance that any estimate, projection or forecast will be realized.

[1] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》数据库,二零一七年四月。不保证任何估计、推测或预测会实现。

2. Source: Bloomberg. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance.

[2] 资料来源:彭博资讯。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不包括费用、开支或认购费。过往业绩并非将来结果的指示或保证。

3. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2017. There is no assurance any estimate, projection or forecast will be realized.

[3] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》数据库,二零一七年四月。不保证任何估计、推测或预测会实现。

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