中国:建设通向未来之路
China: Building Roads to the Future
1993字
2019-12-18 09:34
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火星译客

China is forging new global connections and expanding trade and market access in many ways. The country does seem to be opening its capital markets and working to become more transparent. We have seen the success of stock linkages between mainland China and Hong Kong, and recently, a new bond market connection has been announced. I think index-provider MSCI's recent announcement to include large Chinese mainland shares in its Emerging Markets Index1 beginning next year represents an important vote of confidence and a recognition that China's growth and capital market size must be taken into account by global investors.

中国正试图通过多种方式在全球范围内构建新的联系,扩大贸易和市场准入。中国的确打算开放其资本市场,旨在提高透明度。我们见证到中国内地在与香港就股票交易市场成功搭建新桥梁后,近期又宣布建立了新的债券市场联系。我认为,指数提供商摩根士丹利资本国际公司 (MSCI)不久前宣布自明年将中国内地的大量股票纳入其新兴市场指数【1】的决定,体现出极大的支持与信任,也说明该公司已认识到,全球投资者不可忽视中国的经济增长和资本市场规模。

本帖另外提供中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

China's ancient “Silk Road” trade route is thought to be traced back to the Han Dynasty more than 2,000 years ago. The importance of silk trading to the region inspired the name of this network connecting land and sea trade routes linking China, Central Asia, the Arab world and stretching into the African and European continents.

中国古代的 “丝绸之路” 贸易路线可以追溯到2000多年前的汉代。丝绸贸易对该地区的重要性可以说是该路线得名的灵感来源,丝绸之路是连接中国、中亚、阿拉伯地区和乃至非洲和欧洲大陆的陆海贸易通道。

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jingping formally announced plans for a modern system of networks including railroads, ports, pipelines and even electronic information highways. The “One-Belt One-Road” (OBOR) initiative aims to transform economic and diplomatic interests in the region, taking shape in the form of investments in the various countries the program encompasses.

2013年,中国国家主席习近平正式宣布构建现代网络系统的计划,该建设项目包括铁路、港口、管道甚至电子信息高速公路在内。“ 一带一路 ” 倡议旨在以执行涵盖多国家投资行为的计划推动该地区的经济和外交利益转型。

In 2014, China established a special, multi-billion-dollar fund to finance a variety of infrastructure projects along the OBOR routes, creating new economic corridors. The initiative is thought to be perhaps the largest of its type initiated by just one country. The OBOR currently spans more than 60 countries.

2014年,中国设立了一个数额高达上十亿美元的专项基金,旨在为一带一路线路沿线的各种基础设施项目提供资金支持,打造全新的经济走廊。一带一路倡议目前覆盖60多个国家,其规模超过由一国发起的其他同类倡议。

The sea-route part of the program includes ports along China's coast, Hanoi in Vietnam, Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, Jakarta in Indonesia, Kolkata in India, Colombo in Sri Lanka, Nairobi in Kenya and Athens in Greece, where the Chinese have acquired the port of Piraeus.

一带一路工程海上之路包括中国沿海港口、越南河内、马来西亚吉隆坡、印度尼西亚雅加达、印度加尔各答、斯里兰卡科伦坡、肯尼亚内罗毕和希腊雅典。在以上提及的港口中,中国已成功收购比雷埃夫斯港。

One indication that the Chinese are putting words into action was demonstrated to me when I recently visited Sri Lanka. Right on the Colombo waterfront was a spanking new giant container port the Chinese had built, capable of handling the world's largest container vessels.

我最近一次去斯里兰卡时,就在科伦坡海滨,中国已经建成了一个崭新的巨型集装箱港口,足以容纳世界上最大的集装箱船。由此,中国人言行一致的性格特征可见一斑。

A land-route portion of the project will start in Xian and Urumqi in the West of China, then travel through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in Central Asia, then Tehran in Iran, Ankara in Turkey, Moscow in Russia and Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Of course, a number of other countries such as Pakistan and Georgia will likely be impacted as trade and energy cooperation expands throughout various areas in the region.

“ 一路 ” 将以中国西部的西安和乌鲁木齐为起点,然后途经中亚地区的哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦,最后以伊朗德黑兰、土耳其安卡拉、俄罗斯莫斯科和荷兰鹿特丹为终点。当然,随着贸易和能源合作在该地区各个领域的逐步拓展,巴基斯坦和格鲁吉亚等其他一些国家可能会受到影响。

In mid-May of this year, the Chinese hosted a high-level OBOR summit. A number of new investments were announced at the summit, augmenting what already has taken place since 2013 when the OBOR was launched. At the summit, China pledged more than $100 billion in new investments.

今年5月中旬,中国举办了 “ 金砖国家领导人峰会 ” ,并在会议期间宣布了一系列新的投资计划,扩大了自2013年一带一路启动已经实施的项目。在进行会晤时,中国作出了投放1000多亿美元的承诺以推动新项目的进行。

Officials also announced that Chinese companies had built 56 economic cooperation zones in more 20 countries. The Chinese are emphasizing investments in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia, as those areas represent a strategic link between China and Europe. Agreements made with Uzbekistan represent just one example of the substantial impact of Chinese investments. The two countries have made numerous, multi-billion-dollar agreements including energy infrastructure and a gas supply contract to China.

中国发言人还宣布,中国企业已在20多个国家建立了56个经济合作区。中国正在提高在南高加索和中亚的投资,因为这些地区代表着中国和欧洲之间的战略联系。与乌兹别克斯坦达成的协议是中国投资的巨大影响的具体例证。两国已经签署了多项价值数十亿美元的协议,其中包括能源基础设施和承诺向中国供应天然气的合同。

Transport corridors connect a railway system spanning China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, and also connect to seaports in Pakistan and Iran. At the conference underlining the importance of the Caucasus countries, China also signed a free-trade agreement with Georgia. One attraction of Georgia is the Association Agreement Georgia has with the European Union (EU). Chinese joint ventures in Georgia would thus be eligible for preferential treatment of its products within the EU markets.

运输走廊连接着横跨中国、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和阿富汗的铁路系统,还连接着巴基斯坦和伊朗的海港。除了在会议上突出高加索国家的重要性之外,中国还与格鲁吉亚签署了自由贸易协定。格鲁吉亚带有的吸引力是它与欧盟签订的联合协议。因此,中国在格鲁吉亚的合资企业将有资格在欧盟市场享受其产品的优惠待遇。

In my view, the OBOR program will likely benefit many Chinese companies, but has widespread implications for other countries in the region and beyond. While some countries in Asia are likely to see the biggest initial impact, eventually I also see Africa as a key beneficiary. Even though African countries are not in the direct path of the “One Road” they will be included in the sea “One Belt” projects with various infrastructure improvements already underway. Countries in Europe could also benefit once the program is completed and new trade and investment linkages expand.

在我看来,一带一路项目可能会使许多中国公司受益,但也会对该地区和其他国家产生广泛影响。虽然亚洲一些国家在初期可能受影响最大,但最终非洲也将被列入主要受益者。尽管非洲国家不在 “ 一路 ” 的直接通道之上,但这些国家将被纳入海上 “ 一带一路 ” 项目,其中各种基础设施的改善工作正在逐步进行。一旦该计划完成,新的贸易和投资联系扩大,欧洲国家也会受益。

While China has established this program to bolster its economic position and power, I think the Chinese are going to be careful to not unduly favor Chinese companies involved in various OBOR projects. The bottom line is that clearly, China wants more global trade and many countries and companies involved in these efforts will benefit. Of course, others may not benefit at all, which emphasizes the importance of being highly selective as an investor in these markets.

虽然中国建立这个项目是为了巩固其经济地位和实力,但我认为中国人应该保持谨慎,不要过分偏袒参与各种一带一路项目的中国公司。最重要的是,中国显然希望加强全球贸易,同时让参与这类项目的多个国家和公司从中受益。当然,其他人可能根本不会受益,这就强调了在这些市场中作为投资者高度选择性的重要性。

A Note on China and Finance

聚焦中国和金融

While some observers see the OBOR program as likely to benefit China and many other countries in a number of ways, there are also some risks. China has put a consortium of banks and funds together to help finance OBOR-related projects but many investors remain concerned about the state of China's financial system.

尽管一些观察人士认为,一带一路项目可能通过多种渠道使中国和许多其他国家获益,但这其中也存在一些风险。中国已经联合银行和资金,协同帮助为一带一路相关项目提供融资,但许多投资者仍对中国金融体系的状况感到担忧。

China does face domestic challenges as it continues to transition its economy away from an export-focused model. China's pace of growth has been slowing a bit in recent years and concerns about overcapacity in certain sectors has sprung up.

随着中国经济继续向出口导向模式转型,中国确实面临着国内挑战。近年来,中国的增长速度有所放缓,一些行业的产能过剩问题也引发了担忧。

In particular there has been considerable concern about so-called “shadow banking” in China, which refers to financial transactions outside the formal system that lack a strong safety net. This may be one of the reasons why a major ratings agency recently downgraded China, even though the country still maintains an investment-grade rating.

特别是,人们对中国所谓的 “ 影子银行 ” 相当担忧。“ 影子银行 ” 指的是正规体系之外、缺乏强大安全保障的金融交易。这可能是主要评级机构最近下调中国评级的原因之一,尽管中国仍维持在投资级评级。

There are signs the Chinese government is moving to clean up some of the excesses in the financial sector, particularly in regard to sales of wealth-management products—a key component of shadow banking.

有迹象表明,中国政府正在着手清理金融业的一些过度业务操作,尤其是在理财产品的销售方面。理财产品是影子银行的一个关键组成部分。

In June, Chinese authorities ordered banks to suspend business dealings with a Chinese holding company that had a variety of financial services subsidiaries. It was announced that the company's head was “temporarily unable to fulfill his role for personal reasons.” Apparently the government's concern related to sales of high-yield financial products to clients in order to fuel real estate and banking assets overseas.

今年6月,中国有关部门下令暂停银行与一家中国控股公司的业务往来,该公司拥有多种金融服务子公司。相关部门称,该公司负责人 “ 因个人原因暂时无法履行职责 ”。“ 显然政府担忧的是该行为了刺激海外房地产和银行资产,向客户出售高收益金融产品。

Recently I was in New York and I noticed that the famous Waldorf-Astoria hotel was closed and boarded up. In 2015 it was purchased by the same large Chinese holding company mentioned above. The announced plan was to convert part of the hotel into condominiums, something that fans of the iconic art-deco designed hotel were unhappy about.

最近一次到纽约,我发现著名的华尔道夫-阿斯托里亚酒店已经关闭,连大门也被木板封上了。该酒店于2015年被上述这家中国大型控股公司所收购,并宣布计划将酒店的一部分改造成共管公寓,引起了这座标志性的艺术装饰风格设计建筑的粉丝们的不满。

The acquisition created a lot of attention and probably raised eyebrows in Beijing. Authorities have been aiming to stem the outflow of foreign exchange to prevent a weakening of China's currency. Once the renminbi is stable and confidence in the domestic market has risen, I think it will be easier for the authorities to continue with their long-term financial reforms.

这一收购引起了多方关注,就连中国政府也难以忽视。中国当局一直致力于阻止外汇外流,以防止人民币贬值。我认为,一旦人民币稳定下来,人们对国内市场的信心上升,中国政府就更容易继续进行长期的金融改革。

With the upcoming 19th Communist Party Congress this autumn, I think it will be important for President Xi to seek to ensure financial stability and to demonstrate that he is capable of presiding over a stable financial system so that China's stock and bond markets will attract more support for the OBOR program.

随着今年秋天即将召开的中共十九大,我认为习主席应将关注点放在寻求确保金融稳定,并证明其有能力主持一个稳定的金融体系上,以便为中国的股票和债券市场吸引更多更多国家参与支持一带一路计划。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges.

1. 指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不包括费用、开支或认购费。

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