回首20年:亚洲金融危机的教训
Looking Back 20 Years: Lessons of the Asian Financial Crisis
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2019-12-17 17:12
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July marks the 20th anniversary of what was considered to be the start of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), which sent shockwaves through the region and beyond. The crisis was thought to have started in Thailand in the summer of 1997, although its roots stem from even earlier systemic problems, namely in the financial sector.

今年7月恰逢亚洲金融危机爆发20周年,当时这场金融危机的冲击导致整个亚洲乃至其他地区都受到了影响。人们都认为这场危机的爆发始于1997年夏天的泰国,然而就其根源来说,甚至源于更早的金融业所呈现的系统性问题。

Thailand’s currency, the baht, had been pegged to the US dollar, but on July 2, 1997, the government shifted to a floating exchange-rate system, effectively devaluing it. With Thailand’s foreign exchange reserves drained from months of defending against currency speculation, economic peril ensued. The same currency speculators pounced, further exacerbating declines.

泰铢一直与美元挂钩,然而为了实现泰铢有效贬值,泰国政府在1997年7月2日执行浮动汇率制度。在长达数月的货币投机活动保卫战中,泰国外汇储备不断流失,经济危机接踵而至。泰铢炒家猛扑导致情况进一步恶化。

As an investor in 1997, it was a very difficult time. In the lead up to the crash, we’d heard from a number of Thai companies that were finding it cheaper to borrow in US dollars because the interest rate on US-dollar loans was so much lower than Thai-baht loans.

1997年对于投资者来说,是一大难关。在危机爆发之前,很多泰国公司称他们发现美元借款成本更低,因为美元贷款利率比泰铢贷款利率低太多了。

Of course we were a little concerned about currency risk, but suggestions from the Bank of Thailand that it would defend the value of the baht if required, appeared to reassure companies.

当然,我们有点担心货币风险,但泰国央行表示其将在必要时保护泰铢,这似乎消除了众多公司的担忧。

Unfortunately when the value of the baht collapsed, some of these companies found themselves in deep trouble. A number of high-flying companies loaded with debt went bust and, of course the Thai stock market (in which we were invested) headed south very fast.

可惜的是,当泰铢暴跌时,上述的一些公司发现自身深陷泥潭。大量有前景的公司不堪负债累累破产了,当然泰国股市(我们有投资)也急速下跌。

This proved to be a good lesson in the benefits of diversification, since although the Thai market declined and selling at a fair price was difficult, there were other investments we had around the world to give us liquidity in our strategies if it was needed. The good news was that redemptions were not excessive and most of our investors took the long-term view that we encourage.

这是一个很好的教训,证明了分散投资的好处,因为即使泰国市场下跌以及难以按公平价格脱手,但我们在世界各地还有其他投资,在需要时能够为我们的策略提供流动资金。好消息是没有出现蜂拥赎回的情况,而且我们的大部分投资者坚持我们鼓励的长线投资态度。

At a personal level, however, it was disastrous for so many individuals in Thailand and other countries. One top executive at a prominent company in Thailand was bankrupt as a result of the crisis so he took up selling sandwiches on the street to make money.

但从个人层面来看,泰国及其他国家的很多个人则损失惨重。泰国一间声名显赫的公司的一名 高管因这场危机破产了,从而要在街边卖三明治赚钱。

The crisis in Thailand spread throughout Asia and when various vulnerabilities were exposed in the affected countries, confidence in emerging markets in general declined. The crisis also had a spillover effect on markets outside of Asia, with Russia and Latin America facing crises of their own soon after, dealing emerging markets yet another blow.

泰国这场危机蔓延至整个亚洲,而且当受影响国家的各个弱点暴露出来时,新兴市场的信心整体下跌。这场危机对亚洲以外的市场产生溢出效应,其中俄罗斯和拉丁美洲不久之后也陷入了自身的危机,从而让新兴市场一跌再跌。

Looking back 20 years later, we can see in hindsight the mistakes that occurred. The Thai central bank attempted to control exchange rates and did not have enough foreign exchange reserves to carry out that protection. Unfortunately, other central banks made the same mistake.

20年后再回首,我们可以从事后的角度来看待已发生的错误。泰国央行试图管制汇率,同时又没有足够的外汇储备来实施保护措施。很不幸,其他央行也犯了同样的错误。

Many central banks at that time conveyed that there would be no problem controlling exchange rates and stated devaluations would not occur. Since interest rates in US dollars were so much lower than local currency rates, companies and individuals borrowed in US dollars, thinking that since their local currencies would hold steady, there would be little to no foreign-exchange risk.

当时,很多央行表示控制汇率不成问题,还声称不会出现货币贬值。由于美元利率远低于当地货币利率,公司和个人借入美元,他们认为,既然本国货币会维持稳定,基本上就不会有外汇风险。

Of course, in the end, the central banks could not hold their respective currencies steady and the massive devaluation of local currencies against the US dollar wiped out companies.

当然,最后央行没有能够维持各自货币的稳定,各国货币兑美元暴跌压垮了很多公司。

Individuals living in those countries suffered as well, not only from investment losses but also from the ripple effects of economic collapse. Companies folded and people lost jobs. Sadly, there were many suicides. In Thailand, it was reported that visits to Buddhist temples tripled.

住在那些国家的人们也未能幸免,他们不仅蒙受投资亏损,还被经济崩溃所产生的连锁反应牵连。很多公司倒闭了,人们也失去了工作。让人悲痛的是很多人自杀了。据报道当时泰国佛寺的访客是平时的三倍。

In my view, the World Bank and other multilateral institutions also made a major mistake in dealing with the crisis. Instead of providing financing for debt relief in order for the economies to continue to function, they imposed harsh measures on the governments. They required them to cut budgets and allow banks in their countries to collapse. This was thought to have exacerbated the crisis and extended the problems.

我个人认为,世界银行和其他多边机构在处理这场危机上也犯了个严重的错误。他们非但没有提供资金减免债务让经济继续运行,反而对政府施加严厉的措施。他们要求各个政府削减预算,并允许银行倒闭。这不仅让危机进一步恶化,还扩大了问题。

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve took a much different approach in bailing out financial institutions during the subprime crisis a decade later, rather than let the system collapse.

相反,在十年后的次贷危机期间,美联储在帮助金融机构脱困时采用的方法则大相径庭,并没有让金融体系崩塌。

As I see it, the key takeaway from the AFC is that central banks and governments should not try to go against market forces and control foreign exchange rates. I also believe governments and individuals should not take out debt in currencies other than the currency which is their main source of income without fully understanding the risks behind it.

依我之见,从亚洲金融危机中吸取到的关键教训是,央行和政府不应试图抵抗市场力量以及管控外汇汇率。另外,政府和个人在充分了解背后的风险前,不应借入其主要收入来源货币以外的货币债务。

Many countries, companies and individuals in emerging markets learned the harsh lessons of the AFC. Since then, many emerging markets have built up foreign reserves and reduced foreign debt loads in relation to gross domestic product. Because of this and other reasons, I think the outlook for emerging markets today looks very good.

新兴市场的很多国家、公司和个人都从亚洲金融危机中吸取到了惨痛的教训。自此以后,很多新兴市场都在累积外汇储备,并降低外债占国内生产总值的比例。由于上述及其他诸多原因,如今新兴市场的前景看起来无比光明。

Of course, such crises are part-and-parcel of a free capital-market system, and should be expected. No amount of government regulation and oversight can guarantee another market crisis won’t happen.

当然,这些危机是发展自由资本市场机制必不可少的环节,而且应该可预计。即使有再多的政府监管和监督,也不能保证另一个市场危机不会发生。

The scars of the AFC and the more recent Global Financial Crisis that swept developed markets in 2007-2009 still remain in the minds of many investors. We have seen investor panic at any sign of uncertainty, often perhaps irrationally at times. And many investors continue to see all emerging markets the same—with the same fundamentals. I think this is a mistake.

对于很多投资者来说,亚洲金融危机造成的创伤依然历历在目,二零零七年至二零零九年席卷发达市场的全球金融危机也记忆犹新。一点点不确定迹象都能让投资者如惊弓之鸟,有时候还会毫无根据地恐慌。另外,很多投资者还是将所有新兴市场混为一谈,认为这些市场的基本面一样。这是错误的。

While some emerging markets do remain vulnerable, many others are doing quite well and have pursued prudent policies that have led to economic growth and prosperity. It is our job to differentiate the individual investment opportunities we see on a case-by-case basis, and use times of inevitable panic to pick up bargains where we see sound footing and good prospects.

虽然部分新兴市场依然脆弱得不堪一击,但很多其他新兴市场已脱胎换骨,奉行拉动经济繁荣发展的审慎政策。我们的任务是逐个区分挖掘出来的投资机会,并利用不可避免的恐慌时期捡便宜,投资基础坚实而且前景光明的公司。

Thailand: 20 Years Later

泰国: 20年后的今天

We continue to believe in Thailand’s long-term prospects and think structural catalysts, particularly the government’s recent emphasis on infrastructure, support the investment case.

我们仍对泰国的长期前景有信心,并认为结构上的催化因素,尤其是政府近期对基建的重点投入,会支持投资前景。

In our view, the Thai equity market is well-supported by healthy economic and political development that could result in an improved growth outlook for Thailand over the medium and longer term. We continue to like consumer goods and services, as well as banks and property companies.

经济与政治健康发展,会在中长期内改善泰国的增长前景,从而大力支持泰国股市。我们继续青睐消费性产品与服务,以及银行和房地产公司。

Since the beginning of 2019, the external sector—international transactions with Thailand’s economy—has seen healthy improvement in export sector along with increasing trade flows in the region. The government’s significant economic stimulus measures, reform programs and infrastructure spending also appears to be helping the economy.

自二零一九年年初以来,对外部门(即泰国经济的国际交易)中的出口已显著好转,该地区的贸易流量亦有增加。政府大规模的经济刺激措施、改革计划以及基建开支似乎也在推动经济发展。

We consider inflation to be moderate at around 1% and think it is likely to remain stable. We also regard Interest rates as sufficiently accommodative at 1.5%.

我们预期,通胀将处于1%左右的温和水平,而且有可能会维持稳定,利率将维持在1.5%,足够宽松。

Moreover, we view the political environment as stable following a smooth royal transition.

另外,王权顺利交接后政治环境将维持稳定。

Moving forward, we expect earnings growth to be stable to slightly positive in 2017 as the economy and confidence continue to improve.

展望未来,随着经济继续好转以及信心回升,预期二零一七年盈利增长将维持稳定,或小幅正增长。

0717_Thailand_AFC

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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