看好从小盘股投资获益
An Active Look at Small-Cap Investing
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2019-12-17 17:50
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Overall, we believe small-cap stocks in emerging markets offer attractive prospects for active managers. A multitude of mispriced securities, market inefficiencies and a paucity of research provide considerable investment opportunities, in our view.

总体而言,我们认为新兴市场小盘股为主动型基金经理呈现出一个有吸引力的前景。因为该投资类别涉及大量错误定价的证券、市场效率低下和缺乏研究,这几项因素将提供大量投资机会。

The Current Market Backdrop

当前的市场背景

So far in 2019, EM small-cap performance has been buoyant, with many countries and industries in the asset class advancing. Confidence in the market backdrop, economic environment and corporate earnings have improved across EMs. That confidence has come despite challenges such as actual and potential US interest-rate increases, uncertainty brought about by the new US administration and global geopolitical issues.

二零一九年至今,新兴市场小盘股一直表现得很活跃,该资产类别在很多国家和行业中都有强劲的发展。尽管存在各种挑战,例如美国的实际和潜在利率变动,美国新一届政府带来的不确定性,以及环球地缘政治问题,但随着整个新兴市场的市场信心提高,经济环境和企业盈利持续改善,今年的回报已较为稳健。

Addressing Some Common Misconceptions Surrounding EM Small Caps

解读对新兴市场小盘股的一些常见误解

It Is Not a “Niche” Asset Class. Despite broad perceptions, in our view, EM small caps are far from being a niche investment. The asset class represents more than 20,000 companies with an aggregate market capitalization of over US$5 trillion and daily turnover of over US$40 billion, as the chart below demonstrates.1 Liquidity within EM small-cap markets is comparable to that of EM large caps.

并非“少数”资产类别。尽管市场普遍如此认为,但新兴市场小盘股远非小众投资。该资产类别涵盖20,000多间公司,总市值超过5万亿美元,每日成交量超过400亿美元,如图1所示—新兴市场小盘股市场的流动性可比拟新兴市场大盘股[1]

Accordingly, we think the sheer size of the EM small-cap investment universe is a key advantage for active managers, providing abundant opportunities to uncover companies we think represent value. Ownership of EM small caps disproportionately sits with retail investors. Retail investors tend to trade more frequently than foreign institutional investors because the former usually have a far shorter investment horizon—boosting liquidity as a result. A good example of this is India, where investors have a vast number of smaller companies to choose from, and the skew of ownership is toward local investors.

基金经理而言,新兴市场小盘股的庞大规模是一个关键优势,可提供充足的机会来挖掘错误定价的公司。新兴市场小盘股通常由当地散户投资者不均衡持有,他们的交易频率往往高于外国机构投资者,因为前者的投资范围往往更窄,流动性也会因此增加。印度便是一个很好的例子,投资者有大量的小企业可供选择,而拥有权通常集中在当地投资者手中。

A key difference between developed-market small caps and EM small caps is that EM small caps in many markets are often still significantly important locally. A market capitalization of close to US$2 billion could represent a leading company in a certain country, index or sector—perhaps a well-established business with a long and successful track record. Many of these companies are family owned or controlled, and many have stable profiles when compared with developed-market small caps.

已发展市场小盘股和新兴市场小盘股的一个明显分别在于很多新兴市场小盘股通常在本地占相当重要的地位;市值接近20亿美元就有可能代表着一个特定国家、指数或行业的领导公司;亦或是一间历史悠久而且往绩斐然的成熟企业。这些公司很多是由家族拥有或控制,而且很多公司与已发展市场小盘股相比有稳定的表现。

It Is Not Necessarily a More Volatile Investment

不一定呈现出更高的波动性

Another key misconception about investing in EM small caps is that volatility is higher than their larger-cap counterparts. Like all investments, EM small caps come with real and perceived risks. These include greater price volatility (particularly over the short term), relatively small revenues, limited product lines and a small market share. However, many of these risks are those associated with the EM equity universe overall, such as increased volatility relative to developed markets.

关于新兴市场小盘股投资的另一个关键误解,就是这些资产的波动性高于较大盘股票。新兴市场小盘股与所有投资一样,有真实存在的风险,也有普遍预期的风险;其中一些风险与整个新兴市场股票领域相关,比如相对于已发展市场波动性增大。人们认为新兴市场小盘股比新兴市场大盘股更为波动。

An analysis of standard deviations illustrates the assumption that EM small caps are much more volatile than larger-cap EM stocks does not always hold true.

然而,透过对标准差的分析,显示这种假设并不成立。

Although individual stocks can indeed be very volatile, the correlations2 between different EM small-cap companies are often lower, which we believe in is due in part to the expansiveness and diversity of businesses within this investment space. The same factors that might impact a South Korean television and online shopping company's stock, for example, would not likely impact an Indian cement company. This can help reduce correlation risk at the asset-class level.

虽然个别股票确实有可能很不稳定,但不同新兴市场小型公司之间的相关性[2]较低,我们认为这在某种程度上归因于此投资领域企业的广泛性和多样性。例如,对韩国电视和网上购物公司股价具有潜在影响的因素,可能不会对印度水泥公司产生影响。这一现象有助于降低资产投资的相关风险。

Small-Cap Opportunities for Active Investors

主动型投资者的小盘股投资机会

Overlooked and Under-researched. Not only do many investment managers overlook EM small caps, they are also notably under-researched on the sell side. This reflects not only the vast number of companies to cover, but also the relative lack of information available. Unsurprisingly, the result is that the average number of stock research recommendations for EM small caps is much lower than for larger-cap stocks.3

被忽视而且缺乏研究。新兴市场小盘股不仅基本上被投资经理忽视,而且明显缺少卖方研究。这不仅反映出还有大量企业有待研究,而且也反映了这方面的讯息较少。结果不出所料,新兴市场小盘股的股票研究推荐平均数量远低于大盘股[3]

Also, many small-cap stocks have little or no research coverage. For a large number of EM small-cap stocks outside of the benchmark MSCI index, research availability is even more limited. This can give a critical advantage to an active manager who can directly research such companies, especially if they have people on the ground in the region to evaluate them first hand. The probability of finding a relatively unknown off-index EM small-cap stock being mispriced is far greater than for a large company with many analysts producing research recommendations on it.

此外,很多小盘股很少或完全没有被研究。指数外的大量新兴市场小盘股的研究就更为有限。这可为直接研究这些公司的主动型基金经理带来关键优势,找到一只被错误定价、相对不知名的指数外的新兴市场小盘股的机会,远大于找到被多个分析师研究推荐的大型公司。

Recapturing Access to Local Exposure to Complement Existing EM Portfolios

重新捕捉当地敞口,补足现有的新兴市场投资组合

Reflecting on the general long-term success of emerging markets, as global economies and as an equity asset class, most of these countries have become ever-more integrated into the world economy. Consequently, the largest and most successful EM companies have often expanded beyond their domestic markets to export and invest globally. Accordingly, domestic factors are no longer the primary drivers of the share prices of many of these stocks. Examples of such companies can include electronics, auto-industry or consumer-related names that derive a substantial portion of their revenues from developed economies rather than those in which they are based.

反观新兴市场的长期成功,作为环球经济体和股票资产类别,大多数这些国家都已经更深入地融入到世界经济中。因此,规模最大、最成功的公司往往已经离开当地,向环球出口或在环球范围内投资。因此,很多此类股票的价格不再主要受国内因素的推动。此类公司的例子包括电子、汽车行业或与消费者相关的公司,他们大部分的收入来自已发展经济体,而不是其总部所在地。

In contrast, EM small caps generally offer the very exposures that originally enticed many investors to emerging markets in general. Domestic demand, favorable demographics, local reform initiatives and innovative niche products are often the primary determinants of growth.

相比之下,一般新兴市场小盘股最初吸引投资者进入新兴市场的因素相当直接,其中国内需求、有利的人口结构、地方改革措施和创新小众产品往往是增长的主要决定因素。

Consequently, the sectors to which EM small-cap investors are exposed differ notably from those of larger-cap stocks. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is disproportionately dominated by exposures in information technology and financials, as indicated in the chart below. These sectors are typically more closely impacted by global or country-level macroeconomic trends.

因此,新兴市场小盘股投资者与大盘股投资者所投资的行业存在显著的差异。 MSCI新兴市场指数基本上由信息技术和金融股占据,比例各有不同。这些行业通常受环球或国家层面的宏观经济趋势的影响更大。

In addition, state-owned enterprises are often more prevalent among larger-cap stocks. While we find many such state-owned companies to be well managed, the interests of the top owners are not always entirely aligned with those of minority investors.

此外,国有企业在大盘股中往往更为普遍,而且我们发现,尽管很多国有企业管理完善,但最终拥有者的利益并不总是与少数投资者的利益完全一致。

In contrast, EM small-cap exposures are typically concentrated in higher-growth sectors, such as consumer discretionary and health care. Often these companies are more locally focused and many are relatively dominant players in smaller industries. The most successful EM small caps will leverage such local strength to expand internationally, supporting their transition into mid- or even large-cap companies over time.

相比之下,新兴市场小盘股的分布主要集中在高增长行业,例如非必需消费品和健康护理。这些公司往往更专注于当地业务,而在较小的行业中,很多公司相对占主导地位。最成功的新兴市场小盘股将利用这种优势,在国际市场扩展业务,以此支持公司日后过渡到中型,甚至大型公司。

Even within a given sector, economic exposures can differ substantially. For example, in the materials sector, mining companies by their nature are generally large-cap names and are impacted significantly by factors external to their home country, such as global commodity prices. EM small-cap materials companies include businesses such as cement producers, with greater exposure to local economic development and demand dynamics. Accordingly, diversifying into EM small caps can provide exposures that may complement an existing larger-cap-oriented EM allocation.

即使是同一个行业,经济风险也会有很大差异。例如物料行业,矿业公司在性质上通常属于大盘股,显著受到本国以外的因素影响,例如环球商品价格。新兴市场小型物料公司可能包括水泥生产商等企业,受当地经济发展和需求变动的影响更大。因此,分散投资新兴市场小盘股,是对现有新兴市场较大盘股配置的一个补充。

Finding Growth in a Low-Growth World

在低增长环境中寻求增长机会

Emerging markets represent a possible bright spot in a sometimes uncertain world-economic landscape. Although global growth rates have consistently disappointed since the 2008 financial crisis, in April 2019 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected an expansion in global gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the 2018 level, to 3.5% in 2019.4 For advanced economies, the IMF's GDP growth expectation for 2019 is at 2%.5 However, as has consistently been the case, the expected growth rate for EMs together with other developing markets, at 4.5%, sits solidly above the global rate.6

在不时出现不确定因素的世界经济环境中,新兴市场代表一个机遇。虽然自二零零八年金融危机以来,环球经济增长率一直令人失望,但国际货币基金组织在二零一九年四月预测,环球国内生产总值增长将从二零一八年的水平上升到二零一九年的3.5%。[4]已发展经济体方面,二零一九年国内生产总值增长预期为2%。[5]然而,一如以往,新兴市场与其他发展中市场的预期增长率远高于环球增速,预期达到4.5% 。[6]

In such a low-growth world, investing in EM small caps may provide exposure to many of the fastest-growing companies in the fastest-growing countries globally.

在这样一个低增长的环境下,投资新兴市场小盘股,即可投资于环球增长最快的国家中大量发展最快的公司。

Sales growth of EM small caps has also been higher than their larger-cap counterparts.7 It is also worth reiterating that this topline growth is typically organic and derived from local market dynamics, rather than being driven by global macroeconomic factors.

说明新兴市场小盘股的销售增长亦高于新兴市场大型公司。[7]同样值得留意的是,该盈利增长通常是内部有机增长,源自本地市场的动态发展,而非由环球宏观经济因素推动。

In addition to organic growth, EM small caps may also see share-price appreciation from being added to an index, thus attracting passive investor flows, and with additional sell-side research attention likely to increase active fund flows, too. They also may be potential merger-and-acquisition targets. These are growth drivers that are, to a great extent, independent of macroeconomic considerations.

除了有机增长,新兴市场小盘股价格上升也可能因为其被添加到指数中(因此吸引被动投资者的资金,而且卖方研究增加后,可能会吸引主动型基金),以及源于其作为潜在的并购目标,这些增长推动力在很大程度上独立于宏观经济因素。

Uncovering Success

发现成功的股票

Perhaps what is most important to recognize is that there are numerous EM small-cap companies that will likely remain small, whether due to corporate governance issues, poor quality of management, lack of market growth or other factors. The role of an active manager is to seek to determine which EM small-cap companies will succeed over the long term, with a view to reducing downside risk and thus enhancing risk-adjusted returns. With such a vast number of under-researched and under-owned companies in which to invest, a focus on bottom-up fundamentals can result in the construction of portfolios with highly attractive quality metrics at valuations lower than the EM small-cap index.

或许最重要的是要认识到,很多新兴市场小型公司可能会维持小规模,无论是由企业管治问题、管理不善、缺乏市场增长或其他因素所致。主动型基金经理的角色是,尽量确定哪些新兴市场小型公司将在长期内取得成功,着眼于降低下行风险,从而提高风险调整回报。可供投资的缺少研究而且持有量偏低的公司这么多,聚焦自下而上的基本面,可构建估值低于新兴市场小盘股指数、质量指标极为可观的投资组合。

Our Active Focus

我们的主动管理的核心

At Templeton Emerging Markets Group, we believe the EM small-cap space is fertile ground for active managers who can focus on risk management and zero in on long-term growth drivers for the asset class. Our EM small-cap research is driven by an extensive on-the-ground team of over 50 analysts in 20 offices globally, which allows us to have regular face-to-face meetings with prospective investments and our investee companies and gain first-hand understanding of the dynamics of the local markets in which they operate.

邓普顿新兴市场团队认为,新兴市场小盘股市场是主动型基金经理的沃土,他们可专注于该资产类别的风险管理和长期增长动力。我们的新兴市场小盘股研究由一支大规模的驻当地团队带领,环球有20个办事处,50多名分析员,这使我们能够定期与潜在投资和我们所投资的公司进行面对面会谈。

Our strong research efforts, with a focus on corporate governance and risk management, support our aim to deliver on the structural reasons for EM small-cap investing—seeking companies we believe are best positioned to benefit from the demographics and rising wealth of EM consumers, with sustainable and defendable business models.

我们还有强大的研究计划配合,专注于企业管治和风险管理,并致力于提供投资新兴市场小盘股的结构性理由-寻找能够从人口结构和新兴市场消费者财富不断增长中受惠、拥有可持续和可防御的商业模式的公司。

Through our bottom-up approach, we look to invest in companies with good management teams where we feel conviction they can make the right strategic choices. Price is also crucial to our approach, with a value orientation driving our philosophy for EM investing, which has been honed over several decades

我们采用自下而上、高置信度的长线投资方法,致力投资于拥有优秀管理团队的公司,相信他们能够做出正确的战略选择。价格亦对我们的投资方法至关重要,价值取向驱动着我们的投资理念。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/30/19.

[1] 资料来源:彭博,截至2019年6月30日。

2. Correlation measures the degree to which two investments move in tandem. Correlation will range between 1 (perfect positive correlation where two items have historically moved in the same direction) and -1 (perfect negative correlation, where two items have historically moved in opposite directions).

[2] 相关性量度两个投资组合的活动串联程度。相关性在1(完全正相关,其中两个项目在历史上一直朝同一方向移动)和 -1之间(完全负相关,其中两个项目在历史上是朝相反方向移动)。

3. Source: Bloomberg, as of June 30, 2019. EM small caps represented by the MSCI EM Small Cap Index. Emerging markets represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges.

[3] 资料来源:彭博,2019年6月30日。新兴市场小型公司由MSCI新兴市场小盘股指数所代表。新兴市场由MSCI新兴市场指数所代表。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不包括费用、开支或认购费。

4. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2019. There is no assurance that any forecast, projection or estimate will be realized.

[4] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织,《世界经济展望》,2019年4月。不保证任何估计、推测或预测会实现。

5. Source: Ibid.

[5] 资料来源:同上。

6. Source: Ibid.

[6] 资料来源:同上。

7. Source: FactSet. EM small caps represented by the MSCI EM Small Cap Index. Emerging markets represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges.

[7]资料来源:FactSet。新兴市场小型公司由MSCI新兴市场小盘股指数所代表。新兴市场由MSCI新兴市场指数所代表。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不包括费用、开支或认购费。

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