年中展望:新兴市场的复苏
Mid-Year Outlook: The Resurgence of Emerging Markets
2556字
2019-12-17 12:29
65阅读
火星译客

The first half of 2019 has been bright for emerging markets, generally speaking. My colleagues Stephen Dover, chief investment officer of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, Chetan Sehgal, director of Global Emerging Markets/Small-Cap Strategies and Carlos Hardenberg, senior vice president, director of Frontier Markets Strategies, examine factors boosting sentiment this year and point to some themes and sectors we are excited about in this space going forward.

总体来说,2019年上半年对新兴市场一片向好。我的同事斯蒂芬·多佛(邓普顿新兴市场集团的首席投资官)、切坦·塞加尔(全球新兴市场/小盘股策略主任)和卡洛斯·哈登伯格(高级副总裁兼前沿市场策略主管)审视了提升今年新兴市场发展氛围的部分因素,并指出了在该领域内他们所看好的主题和行业。

This post is also available in: Dutch, French, German, Italian, Spanish

Emerging-market (EM) equities (as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) have extended their 2018 recovery. In the first half of 2019, the MSCI EM Index returned 18.60%, compared with an 11.02% gain in the MSCI World Index.1

新兴市场股票(以MSCI新兴市场指数代表)延续了2018年的复苏趋势。2019年上半年,MSCI新兴市场指数回报18.60%,相比之下,MSCI世界指数的收益则为11.02%。[1]

The strong start to the year reflects an improved macroeconomic backdrop following a period of currency and commodity price adjustments and widespread political change.

今年的强劲开篇表明,经历货币和商品价格调整以及影响广泛的政治变动后,宏观经济环境已有改善。

The factors many investors have historically found attractive about the asset class have come back into play, including stronger earnings growth and robust consumer trends.

该资产类别历来吸引众多投资者的因素再次发挥作用,包括较强劲的盈利增长和健康的消费趋势。

While areas of risk remain, our view is that we are still in the early innings of the emerging-market earnings growth upturn. We also believe valuations and sentiment continue to be supportive.

虽然很多领域依然存在风险,但我们认为,目前新兴市场仍处于盈利增长回升的初期阶段。估值和市场情绪亦将继续带来支持。

Even in regions that are still going through adjustment and rebalancing, we see more visible signs of robust underlying economic conditions. Positive factors include low debt, stabilizing commodity markets, reduced currency volatility and improving consumer confidence. The implementation of reforms in many countries has also been further driving market confidence.

即便是依然处于调整和再平衡状态的地区,也有较多可证明潜在经济环境稳健的信号。积极因素包括低债务、商品市场逐渐企稳、货币波动性降低,以及消费者信心提升。很多国家的改革措施亦进一步提振市场信心。

Importantly, EM corporate earnings growth hit an inflection point in 2018 after several years of decline, due in part to weaker commodity prices and slowing growth in China. Earnings growth now appears to be rebounding. Emerging-market corporations' capital allocation and cost efficiency also have been improving, which we believe should support profit margins and lift return on equity.

更重要的是,由于商品价格疲软以及中国增长放缓等原因,新兴市场企业盈利增长多年来一直下跌,最后终于在2018年迎来拐点。盈利增长目前似乎在回升。新兴市场企业的资本配置和成本效率也在不断改善,这将有助于扩大利润空间以及提高股本回报率。

As of the end of June 2019, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index's earnings growth was 13.08%, approximately 53% higher than that of the MSCI World Index.2 

截至2019年六月底,MSCI新兴市场指数的盈利增长为13.08%,高于MSCI世界指数约53%。[2]

Valuations also appear supportive of investing in EM equity markets generally, in our view. As of the end of June 2019, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was 14.60, while the S&P 500 Index P/E ratio was 21.40 and the MSCI World Index 19.86.3

估值亦普遍支持投资者投资新兴市场股市。截至2019年六月底,MSCI新兴市场指数的市盈率为14.60倍,而标准普尔500指数和MSCI世界指数则分别为21.40倍和19.86倍。[3]

Taking a long-term view, the structural investment case for emerging markets continues to center around demographics (including a rising middle class) and domestic consumption. We think it's also important to recognize that there have also been fundamental shifts in the corporate landscape.

长远来看,新兴市场的结构性投资依据继续集中于人口结构(包括日益壮大的中产阶级)和国内消费。同样重要的是,我们知道公司的格局亦已发生根本性的变化。

Emerging markets are more diversified than they were a decade ago. The asset class has undergone a significant transformation from the often plain-vanilla business models of the past. Older models tended to focus on infrastructure, telecommunications, classic banking and commodity-related businesses. Today, we see a new generation of highly innovative companies which are moving into much higher value-added production processes, or are on the cutting edge of world-class technology leadership.

相比十年前,新兴市场已变得更加多样化。该资产类别已发生重大转变,不再是过去常见的普通功能业务模式。原有业务模式倾向于主营基础设施、通信、传统银行及商品相关等业务。如今,新一代高度创新型公司正转向附加值高得多的生产流程,或者处于世界级尖端科技的前沿。

Information Technology (IT): Diverse Technology Leaders

信息技术:各种各样的科技领军者

The rising importance of IT in emerging markets is a key transformation which has been taking place right under our noses for the past decade. This trend coincides with the lessening dependence on commodities as drivers of growth.

过去十年来,信息技术在新兴市场的重要性与日俱增,这是在我们眼皮底下发生的巨大转变。这一趋势与新兴市场减少依赖商品推动增长的趋势相符。

IT now commands the highest sector weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This is a result of outperformance over the past two years as well as the rise of a number of large IT players (most notably certain Chinese Internet names), which were added to the MSCI EM Index in late 2017 and mid-2018.

目前信息技术行业在MSCI新兴市场指数占据最大比重。这主要归功于该行业在过去两年的出色表现,以及在2017年年底及2018年年中加入MSCI新兴市场指数的很多大型信息技术公司的崛起,最显著的是中国的几间互联网公司。

Today, a diverse set of companies in emerging markets are becoming leading players in the development of world-class technology.

如今,新兴市场中各种各样的公司已成为世界级技术开发领域的领军者。

One way to illustrate this phenomenon is the increase in the number of patent applications stemming from emerging markets. Some 15 years ago, emerging markets represented around 10% to 15% of the global patent pool. In 2017, approximately 45% of all patents filed were from emerging-market companies and countries.4

能用来说明这一现象的其中一个例子便是来自新兴市场的专利申请数量增加。大约15年前,新兴市场的专利数量仅占全球的约10%至15%。2017年,所有备案的专利中约有45%来自新兴市场公司和国家。[4]

There are numerous examples of how EM companies are transforming many areas. One example is online shopping. China's “Singles Day” is the world's biggest online shopping day. Celebrated annually in China on November 11, the concept is similar to “Black Friday” on the day after the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

新兴市场公司让很多领域发生天翻地覆的变化的例子不胜枚举。网购就是其中之一。中国的“光棍节”是世界上最大的网购日,在每年十一月十一日全民狂欢,和美国感恩节之后的“黑色星期五”有异曲同工之处。

In China, more than 14,000 international brands participated in Singles Day 2018, generating more than US$17.7 billion in sales.5 For comparison, the combined online sales of all retailers in the United States over Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday (the Monday after the holiday) was $12.8 billion in 2018.6

在中国,有超过14,000个国际品牌参与2018年光棍节,创造超过177亿美元销售额。[5]相比之下,美国所有零售商在2018年感恩节、黑色星期五和“剁手星期一”(黑色星期五之后的周一)的线上销售总额也才128亿美元。[6]

And, innovation isn't only confined to the largestcompanies. It's happening at smaller, more niche-oriented EM companies as well. Our focus is on companies with sustainable earnings and a competitive advantage that in our analysis can survive longer than the market may think.

另外,创新并非最大的企业独有,规模较小的小众化新兴市场公司也毫不示弱。我们重点关注拥有可持续盈利和竞争优势,按我们的分析企业寿命可长于市场可能预期的公司。

While a recent retreat in IT stocks serves as a reminder of the market volatility that can occur, we remain constructive on the outlook for the IT sector broadly. Although we are cautious of the rapid share-price advances in select China-based Internet stocks, we continue to see value in the sector across emerging markets as a whole.

虽然信息技术股近期回落敲起了警钟,提醒我们可能会出现市场波动,但我们仍看好整个信息技术行业的前景。我们对中国的优质互联网股票价格快速上升持谨慎态度,但我们继续在整个新兴市场中寻找该行业的价值。

The Chinese government remains focused on its “Internet Plus” strategy, wherein the Internet will play a key role in fueling China's next stage of economic growth. There are also numerous opportunities for companies to expand locally. Of particular interest is attracting consumers from the country's rural areas where more than 40% of the population resides.

中国政府仍专注于其“互联网+”策略,互联网在推动中国下一个阶段的经济增长中将扮演关键的角色。各公司也有大量机会在本地扩张规模。尤其是该国有超过40%的人口居住在农村,公司可吸引大量此类消费人群。

Not Just Consumer Goods, But Also Services

不仅需要日常消费品,还需要服务

In addition to IT, the consumer sector provides an effective means to gain exposure to EM economic expansion, and access to growth in spending as rising regional wealth fuels a burgeoning consumer population.

除信息技术外,我们可通过消费行业有效参与新兴市场经济扩张,还能分享地区财富日益增多从而消费人群不断壮大所带来的消费增长。

Classic EM consumer companies operate in areas including autos, food and beverages, and clothing/textiles. Middle-class consumers in emerging markets are not only demanding these type of goods, but also are increasingly demanding services including banking, health care and leisure (entertainment, resorts, movie theaters, gaming and travel).

传统的新兴市场消费类公司所经营的领域包括汽车、食品和饮料,以及服装/纺织品。新兴市场中产阶级消费者不仅需要诸如此类的商品,对银行、医疗保健和休闲(娱乐、度假村、电影院、博彩和旅游)等服务的需求也越来越旺盛。

The rise in the services sector in emerging markets is consistent with what we have seen across developed markets as income rises. We also think this area represents an interesting investment opportunity currently, as it tends to be more domestic in nature and thus less exposed to trade policies and currency volatility.

新兴市场服务业的崛起,和发达市场服务业随着收入增加而发展的道路不谋而合。我们亦认为该领域代表着当前的一个有趣的投资机会,因为服务业在性质上往往更多是以国内市场为主,从而不太容易受到贸易政策和货币波动的冲击。

In many emerging economies, we have seen an influx of luxury brands in particular, catering to the rising affluence of the middle class.

我们看到,为了迎合日益富裕的中产阶级的需求,(尤其是)奢侈品牌大量涌入新兴经济体。

China's Stable Growth and Continued Credit Strength

中国的稳定增长和持续的信贷优势

While China's slowdown in economic growth has weighed on emerging markets for several years, many observers had clearly been overstating the risk of a hard landing. China's growth appears stable so far this year, and the economy is now experiencing reflation with improving external demand. On the structural side, we have seen positive results from the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Many of these companies are now seeing stronger cash flows and an improvement in their balance sheets.

虽然中国经济增长放缓已让新兴市场这几年来萎靡不振,但很多观察者明显是夸大了硬着陆的风险。年初至今,中国的增长稳定,而且由于外部需求环境改善,经济目前正处于再通胀状态。从结构上来看,国有企业改革已看到骄人的成果。很多公司现正实现较大现金流,资产负债表也有改善。

China also still enjoys several important credit strengths, particularly a large and diversified economy, robust growth and a high domestic savings rate. Although the country still faces a high level of debt, it is generally contained domestically, not externally to a creditor. Moreover, China maintains a substantial current account surplus, and the government is also working to contain financial systematic risk with proposals of tightening regulations on shadow banking activities and closure of “zombie” SOEs—companies which are highly indebted and poorly performing.

另外,中国依然坐拥若干重要的信贷优势,尤其是规模庞大而且多样化的经济、稳健的增长,以及极高的国内储蓄率。虽然该国依然债台高筑,但这普遍是内债而非外债。此外,中国保持充足的经常帐户盈余,而且政府正通过加强对影子银行活动的监管力度,以及关闭“僵尸”国有企业来遏制金融系统风险,所谓“僵尸”企业,即负债率高而且经营不善的企业。

Looking ahead, the main drivers for Chinese equities we see include an improving earnings outlook, higher cash returns (dividends) to shareholders, a fading risk of currency devaluation and further implementation of supply-side and SOE reforms.

展望未来,中国股票的主要推动力包括盈利前景改善、股东现金回报(股息)较高、人民币贬值风险逐渐消退,以及继续深化供给侧和国有企业改革。

Areas of risk to watch out for include adverse changes in US trade policies, faster-than-expected interest-rate hikes in the United States (which could lead to a stronger dollar), rising political tensions with South Korea and Japan, and higher bond default rates if systemic liquidity tightens.

需要警惕风险的领域包括美国贸易政策的不利变动、美国加息步伐快于预期(会导致美元走强),与韩国和日本的政治关系日趋紧张,以及较高的债券违约率(如果系统流动性收紧)。

The major investment themes for us are along both structural and cyclical fronts, and they include Internet technology and e-commerce, luxury-consumption (for example, autos and casinos), mass consumption, commodity-price recovery and supply-side reform, and structural growth.

我们的主要投资主题围绕着结构性和周期性两方面,包括互联网技术和电子商务、奢侈品消费(例如汽车和赌场)、大众消费、商品价格回升和供给侧改革,以及结构性增长。

Our Outlook and Risks We See

展望和风险

We believe the continued improvement in emerging-market fundamentals should be supportive for equities. Earnings growth trends improved markedly during 2018 and the early part of 2019. We expect this turnaround to likely continue, with economies and corporate fundamentals across the asset class also likely to continue stabilizing.

新兴市场基本面继续改善应对股票有支撑。2018年至2019年初期间,盈利增长趋势显著改善。预期该上升趋势可能会延续,整个资产类别的经济和公司基本面亦有可能会维持稳定。

Valuations in emerging markets remain attractive relative to developed markets, in our view. Emerging markets' valuation discount relative to developed markets remains on the low end of the range for the past decade, even after the former's outperformance in 2018 and the first half of 2019.

新兴市场的估值依然比发达市场有吸引力。即使在2018年至2019年上半年新兴市场跑赢发达市场,但前者相对于后者的估值折让仍维持在过去十年的区间低端。

Nonetheless, we are mindful of potential volatility and remain watchful for risks. US monetary policy shifts are still a source of apprehension for many market participants. We expect US interest-rate increases to be gradual, but caution that larger or faster-than-expected rate hikes could dampen sentiment and lead to market volatility.

尽管如此,我们仍留意潜在的波动及警惕风险。美国货币政策变动依然是很多市场参与者恐慌的来源。预期美国加息将循序渐进,但须警惕,加息幅度大于预期或步伐快于预期都会打击市场情绪,以及导致市场波动。

Other risks to our outlook include uncertainty about the new US administration's policies, as well as the ability of China to continue its growth while making structural adjustments.

其他风险包括美国新政府的政策不确定性,以及中国能否在调整结构的同时维持增长。

That said, many emerging markets have strong reserve positions and lower external debt today than they've had historically, which makes them less vulnerable to external shocks.

即便如此,鉴于很多新兴市场拥有大量的外汇储备,而且当前的外债比历史水平低,因此能够降低外部冲击带来的影响。

In sum, we see many reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for the asset class in the remainder of 2019 and beyond.

总而言之,该资产类别有很多因素让我们对其在2019年剩余时间内及未来的前景感到乐观。

Mark Mobius' comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

马克博士的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

________________________________________

________________________________________

1. Through June 30, 2019. In US dollar terms. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance.

[1] 截至2019年6月30日。以美元计算。MSCI新兴市场指数追踪24个新兴市场国家中具代表性的大中型股票。MSCI世界指数追踪23个发达市场的大中型股票表现。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。过往表现并非将来结果的指示或保证。

2. Source: FactSet. Though June 30, 2019. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[2] 资料来源:FactSet。截至2019年6月30日。其他资料供应商资料请浏览www.franklintempletondatasources.com

3. The P/E ratio for an individual stock compares the stock price to the company's earnings per share. The P/E ratio for an index is the weighted average of the price/earnings ratios of the stocks in the index. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance.

[3] 个股的市盈率指股价与该公司每股盈利的比值。指数的市盈率指指数内股票市盈率的加权平均。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。过往表现并非将来结果的指示或保证。

4. Source: Gartner, IC Insight, JP Morgan estimate.

[4] 资料来源:高德纳,IC Insight,摩根大通估计。

5. Sources: Bloomberg, TechCrunch. Data as of 2019.

[5] 资料来源:彭博资讯,TechCrunch。数据截至2019年。

6. Sources: Bloomberg, TechCrunch. Black Friday online sales US$3.3 billion, Cyber Monday US$3.45 billion and Thanksgiving US$1.9 billion (total was for the period from November 24-28, 2018).

[6] 资料来源:彭博资讯,TechCrunch。黑色星期五、剁手星期一和感恩节的线上销售额分别为33亿美元、34.5亿美元和19亿美元(总额指2018年11月24至28日期间的销售额加总)。

0 条评论
评论不能为空