拉斯维加斯、澳门和未来的工作
Las Vegas, Macau and the Future of Work
2204字
2019-12-16 10:52
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Italian, Spanish, Polish

这篇文章另外提供中文(简体)、意大利语、西班牙语、波兰语版

A few months ago I was honored to speak at the prestigious SALT investment conference in the US city of Las Vegas. It had been quite a while since I'd been to Las Vegas. The activity and energy of the place really surprised me, even though I don't gamble.

几个月前,享负盛名的SALT投资会议在美国拉斯维加斯举行,我有幸出席并在会议上讲话。我到拉斯维加斯也有一段时间了。即使我不赌博,这个地方的活动和活力同样让我感到震撼。

Las Vegas was once the casino capital of the world, but Macau, a special administration region of China, has held that title for a number of years now (at least when it comes to gambling revenue). It was interesting to compare the two entertainment meccas and how they've evolved.

拉斯维加斯曾经是世界赌场之都,但多年来中国特别行政区澳门一直保持着这一头衔,至少从博彩收入来看确实如此。对比两大娱乐圣地及其发展历程是件有趣的事情。

On the night of my arrival after checking into my (crowded) hotel, I took a walk on the section of Las Vegas Boulevard known as “the Strip.” I was in good company; throngs of people were also out and about.

到达拉斯维加斯并入住酒店(人满为患)的当天晚上,我到著名的拉斯维加斯“长街”散步。身边人来人往,熙熙攘攘的人群和我一样到处游览。

I immediately called my colleague Jordan Pong, who is based in Hong Kong. Jordan is our entertainment analyst and covers the casinos in Macau, China, and other related companies in the region.

我立刻打电话给香港的同事约旦·邦(Jordan Pong)。约旦是我们的娱乐分析师,研究范围覆盖中国澳门的赌场以及该地区其他相关的公司。

I conveyed my surprise that Las Vegas looked even busier than Macau when we visited companies there a few months earlier. Macau—a former Portuguese colony—boasts a gaming industry that dwarfs Las Vegas. So much so that's it's even been called “Las Vegas on Steroids.”

我向他表达了我的震惊之情,拉斯维加斯看起来比我们几个月前到澳门拜访一些公司时所见到的景象更为繁忙。澳门曾经是葡萄牙的殖民地,其声称拥有连拉斯维加斯都不能与之相匹敌的博彩业。以至于澳门甚至被称为“打了生长激素的拉斯维加斯”。

The 2007–2009 global financial crisis and recession hit Las Vegas hard, and its economy had suffered. But by the looks of things more recently, I assumed Las Vegas casinos today must be making a fortune at their gaming tables and slot machines.

二零零七年至二零零九年的全球金融危机和经济衰退让拉斯维加斯受到沉重打击,其经济深受其害。但从最近的情况来看,我猜想如今拉斯维加斯的赌场肯定从赌桌和老虎机上大赚特赚。

Jordan told me that wasn't actually the case. Macau still brings in more money than Las Vegas. He gave me some interesting numbers. Las Vegas has about 150 hotels with a total of about 132,000 rooms (150,000 if you include motels), while Macau has roughly 75 hotels with about 35,000 rooms.1 So Las Vegas has more hotels, and they are also larger than Macau.

约旦说事实并非如此。澳门依然比拉斯维加斯带来更多收入。他给我列了一些有趣的数据。拉斯维加斯有大约150间酒店,总共约有150,000间客房,而澳门的酒店才75间左右,客房大概有30,000 – 40,000间。[1]所以,拉斯维加斯的酒店比澳门的更多也更大。

Las Vegas also boasts more visitors, with 43 million in 2016 compared with 31 million for Macau.2

拉斯维加斯接待的游客数量也更多,二零一六年为4,300万人次,相比之下,澳门只有3,100万人次。[2]

However, when it comes to total revenue, the Macau casinos win hands down. In 2016, the total revenue for Las Vegas hotel/casinos was about US$25 billion, compared with approximately US$32 billion in Macau.3

但说到总收入,澳门赌场则大获全胜。二零一六年,拉斯维加斯酒店/赌场的总收入约为250亿美元,而澳门则大概有320亿美元。[3]

The difference in the source of earning is striking. The gaming portion of Las Vegas' revenue was US$10 billion in 2016, representing less than half of the total revenue.4 Meanwhile, Macau companies earned US $28 billion, with more than 80% of total revenue from gaming.5

两者的盈利来源也明显不同。二零一六年,拉斯维加斯的博彩收入为100亿美元,占总收入不到一半。[4]相比之下,澳门的企业盈利280亿美元,超过80%的收入来自博彩业。[5]

The variety of entertainment offered in Las Vegas far surpasses that of Macau—which I can personally confirm. During my short stay in Las Vegas, I took in two shows packed with enthusiastic, high-paying crowds—Britney Spears and the legendary British pop group Duran Duran, popular in the 80s and early 90s.

拉斯维加斯的娱乐项目种类远远超过澳门,这一点我个人就能够证实。 在拉斯维加斯短暂停留期间,我参加了两场演出,分别是布兰妮和英国传奇的流行乐队杜兰杜兰的表演,其中后者在八十年代和九十年代初声名大噪,现场人山人海,都是一些狂热又有钱的观众。

In every hotel on the Las Vegas Strip there was at least one show and often more than one—there seemed to be something for people of all ages and tastes. As I walked down the Strip I would see advertisements for many other shows at area hotels as well, from comedy to music to magic acts.

坐落在拉斯维加斯长街上的每一间酒店都至少有一场表演,而且通常都不止一场,这些表演似乎迎合了各个年龄层以及各种口味的人群。漫步在长街上,可以看到这片区域很多其他酒店的表演广告,有喜剧、音乐,也有魔术表演。

The Lessons of Las Vegas

拉斯维加斯带来的经验教训

Our team is keenly interested in the consumer space in emerging markets and we have been exploring companies involved in leisure and entertainment, including tourism, for potential investment opportunities. It's interesting to see the development of new theme parks, hotels, resorts and the like springing up in emerging markets—and how similar or different they are from those in developed markets.

我们团队对新兴市场的消费领域极感兴趣,也一直在研究涉足休闲和娱乐(包括旅游业)的公司,从中挖掘潜在的投资机会。我们很乐意看到新兴市场中新的主题公园、酒店、度假村等等如雨后春笋般发展,而且比较其与发达市场的异同也很有趣。

I recall my first visit to Las Vegas back in 1961. I was an experimental psychology student and teaching assistant at the University of New Mexico in the city of Albuquerque.

回想起我一九六一年第一次去拉斯维加斯,我当时还是阿尔伯克基新墨西哥大学的一名实验心理学学生和助教。

One day some fellow students and I decided to drive to Las Vegas in an old car I had purchased for a few hundred dollars at a used-car lot. The drive to Las Vegas was supposed to be approximately nine hours, but it ended up being longer. We set off late in the afternoon, and when we reached the top of a mountain in the middle of the night, the car started sputtering. We had enough gas, but the engine gave a final spurt and then broke down. It was quite cold outside, so luckily we were able to coast down the mountain to a valley.

有一天,我和几名同学决定去拉斯维加斯,开着我花几百美元在二手车市场买来的一辆旧车。到拉斯维加斯大概需要九个小时,但实际上不止。我们傍晚时分出发,当我们半夜到达一座山的山顶时,汽车开始罢/工了。我们有足够的汽油,但发动机发动最后一次冲刺之后坏了。外面挺冷的,还好我们能够从山上滑下去到达一个山谷。

We found a small town of probably just a few hundred people, but there were more than 500 cars parked. It looked like an automobile cemetery.

我们发现了一座小镇,大概只有几百人,但停靠着超过500辆汽车。看起来像是汽车坟场。

Apparently, other drivers met the same fate we had at the top of the mountain, and had abandoned their cars. At an auto-repair shop, we asked if the car could be fixed. The mechanic knowingly looked at us and said yes, but it would cost US$600.  The entire engine was frozen, something that apparently happened in that area because of an unusual combination of cold and high altitude.

显然,其他司机同样遭遇了我们在山顶的命运,然后弃车了。我们问汽车修理店是否能把车修好。技工狡黠地看着我们说可以修好,但要花费600美元。整个发动机都被冻住了,显然这是那个地区会发生的事,因异常低温加上高海拔所致。

I decided to sell the car, but the mechanic said he didn't want it, as there was a surplus of abandoned cars nearby already. He offered me $50 in scrap value for it, and my friends and I hitchhiked to Las Vegas.

我决定把车卖掉,但技工说他不想要,这附近被遗弃的汽车已经够多了。他给我50美元当是卖废铁,然后我们搭便车到了拉斯维加斯。

We arrived very late at night and we didn't have enough money for a hotel room. We took a nap in one of the hotel lobbies and then proceeded to lose the rest of the cash we had in the casinos. That experience put me off gambling for life! We had to hitchhike back to Albuquerque.

到达的时候已经很晚了,而且我们不够钱住酒店。我们在其中一间酒店的大堂小睡了一会儿,然后在赌场里输光了我们剩下的现金。那次经历让我从此远离赌博!我们不得不搭便车回到阿尔伯克基。

Lesson learned: Don't gamble more than you can afford to lose! (I would note this lesson also applies to investing.)

经验教训:不要赌超过你可以承受的损失!(我想说的是,此经验教训也适用于投资。)

I took that fateful trip because I had wanderlust, which still stays with me to this day. At that time, Las Vegas had a glamorous and exciting image, even though there were far fewer hotels than there are today and fewer entertainment options. The city embraced its legacy not only as a major center for hard-core gamblers, but also evolved to become a major entertainment venue—one that today has many options for families, too.

我会走上那一段命中注定的旅程是因为我有“旅行癖”,这种爱好至今仍伴随着我。在那个时候,拉斯维加斯有着让人着迷和兴奋的想象,即使当时的酒店数量与现在相比简直小巫见大巫,而且娱乐项目也很少。这座城市不仅承袭了铁杆赌客们向往的赌城角色,还演变成一个大型的娱乐场所,如今家庭在这里也有很多的选择。

Macau's history as a gambling center pre-dates that of Las Vegas, going back some three centuries. In the mid-1800s, Macau's then-controlling Portuguese government officially made gambling legal. Today, Macau takes gambling very seriously. Unlike Las Vegas, Macau hasn't been oriented as a tourist destination for those seeking other forms of entertainment, but there have been efforts to change that.

澳门成为赌城的历史长于拉斯维加斯, 这要追溯到过去三个世纪。十九世纪中叶,当时控制澳门的葡萄牙政府正式制定博彩法律。如今,澳门也是非常重视博彩业。和拉斯维加斯不同,澳门并没有定位成那些寻觅其他娱乐形式的游客的旅游胜地,但一直在努力改变这种现状。

After a string of years with lower revenue growth, there has been a push for Macau to take Las Vegas' lead in diversifying its offerings to attract more visitors who aren't solely focused on gambling. More resorts are being built, but there are some cultural and other challenges to more fully transforming Macau into a destination for tourists at large.

经过多年较低收入增长后,澳门一直努力在提供多样化项目方面赶超拉斯维加斯,吸引更多不单只是来赌博的游客。越来越多度假村崛地而起,但澳门要更加彻底地转型为吸引普通游客的胜地,还面临着一些文化及其他方面的挑战。

Large US hotel/casino companies have been increasingly influencing Macau's gaming industry though, bringing a new type of tourist experience. For example, one well-known US casino/hotel operator has built replicas of its Las Vegas entertainment properties in Macau, designed to give a guest the experience of being in an entirely different city.

大型的美国酒店/博彩公司对澳门博彩业产生越来越大的影响,他们带来了一种新的游客体验。例如,一间知名的美国酒店/博彩公司在澳门复制了其在拉斯维加斯的娱乐业务,旨在为宾客带来异域风情的城市体验。

Changing Economies

不断演变的经济

During my recent visit to Las Vegas, I refrained from gambling (I learned my lesson long ago). I focused on my work and participated in the conference at which I was speaking.

在近期的拉斯维加斯之旅期间,我没有赌博(我在很久以前已经吸取了教训)。我专注于工作,还参加了SALT会议并在会上发表讲话。

One of the highlights for me was appearing on stage with the great property developer and global investor Sam Zell. At the time I was reading his very interesting book “Am I Being Too Subtle?” So, meeting the author and speaking with him was a treat.

让我印象最深刻的一点,就是与房地产大亨兼全球投资者Sam Zell同台。当时我正在阅读他撰写的一本很有趣的书《Am I Being Too Subtle?》。所以见到作者本尊并与之交谈真是难能可贵。

To me, Las Vegas represents a glimpse of how many economies are shifting around the world. Automation, robotics, the Internet and artificial intelligence have transformed manufacturing. People are no longer required to do many of the repetitive tasks that machines and computers can now do.

在我看来,拉斯维加斯就像一个缩影,演绎着世界各地很多经济体的转变历程。自动化、机器人、互联网和人工智能已让制造业发生变革。很多重复的工作都不再需要人工,机器和电脑就能完成。

As such, human work has been shifting to revolve around services, including entertainment and hospitality. These are the kind of activities that dominate Las Vegas—and which many emerging economies are modeling. I think Las Vegas, Macau, and other entertainment centers offer a snapshot how economies are changing—and how consumer tastes and interests are, too.

因此,人类的工作已转变为以服务为中心,包括娱乐和酒店。这些是拉斯维加斯的主流经济活动,很多新兴经济体也纷纷仿效。拉斯维加斯、澳门以及其他娱乐中心都像是经济体演变的缩影,也映射着消费者的口味和兴趣的变化。

Mark Mobius's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

马克博士的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和领英。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Sources: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Bureau; Macau Government Tourism Office; JP Morgan, data as of 2019.

[1] 资料来源:拉斯维加斯会展和观光局;澳门特别行政区政府旅游局,数据截止二零一九年。

2. Sources: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority; Government of Macau Special Administrative Region.

[2] 资料来源:拉斯维加斯会展和观光局;澳门特别行政区政府。

3. Sources: Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau; “Play Nevada,” Nevada Gaming Control Board; JP Morgan, data as of 2019.

[3] 资料来源:澳门博彩监察协调局;内华达州博彩管理局“Play Nevada”,二零一九年一月。

4. Source: “Play Nevada,” Nevada Gaming Control Board, January 2019.

[4] 资料来源:内华达州博彩管理局“Play Nevada”,二零一九年一月。

5. Source: Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

[5] 资料来源:澳门博彩监察协调局。

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