东盟迎来 “金婚纪念日”
ASEAN's Golden Anniversary
1947字
2019-12-16 07:46
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火星译客

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (known as ASEAN) celebrated its 50-year anniversary in early August. The regional cooperative was established in 1967 with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore as founding members. Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Cambodia later joined.

八月初,东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations),简称东盟(ASEAN),举行东盟成立五十周年庆典。该区域合作组织成立于1967年,创始国包括泰国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡。文莱、越南、老挝、缅甸和柬埔寨先后加入该组织。

Back in 1967, the region was filled with strife, and the association was established to help bring peace, stability and prosperity. ASEAN's broad aim and purpose is stated as: “To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community.”1

1967年,这一区域纷争不断,东盟为促进本地区和平、稳定和繁荣而成立。东盟的宗旨和目标:“本着平等与合作精神,共同促进本地区的经济增长、社会进步和文化发展,为建立一个繁荣、和平的东南亚国家共同体奠定基础。”[1]

Fundamental principles2 are stated as:

基本原则[2]

  • Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity and national identity of all nations;
  • The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external interference, subversion or coercion;
  • Non-interference in the internal affairs of one another;
  • Settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner;
  • Renunciation of the threat or use of force; and
  • Effective cooperation among themselves.
  • 相互尊重独立、主/权、平等、领土完整和各国的民族特性;
  • 任何国家都有免受外来干涉、颠覆和制裁,保持其民族生存的权利;
  • 互不干涉内政;
  • 和平解决分歧或争端;
  • 反对诉诸武力或以武力相威;及
  • 各国间进行有效合作

The spirit of peaceful cooperation has been dubbed the “ASEAN Way” and has been accompanied by impressive growth over the past 50 years. ASEAN today represents the world's seventh-largest market with the third-largest labor force (behind China and India), and there are projections it will become the fourth-largest economic bloc by 2030.3

这种和平合作的精神也被称为“东盟方式”,它伴随着东盟过去半个世纪的高速增长。现在,东盟是世界上第七大市场和第三大劳动力市场(仅次于中国和印度),有预测称其或将在2030年成为世界第四大经济体。[3]

Since its founding, there has been a great deal more cooperation between countries in ASEAN and more travel interchange, even among countries which historically had been enemies. When I was recently in Myanmar, I met with executives of a Thai oil company drilling for oil and gas offshore there. They said cooperation from the Myanmar authorities had been very good and they expected positive results from their operations in the country.

自成立以来,东盟各国间的合作不断增强,甚至在许多以往互为仇敌的国家间的旅游互访也愈发频繁。不久前,我在缅甸和一家开采海上油气的泰国企业管理层会面。他们表示,缅甸当局非常愿意合作,预计其缅甸业务将发展良好。

Given all the challenges, I would give ASEAN an “A” grade for its efforts and the gradual introduction of various cooperation measures. Its members have been successful in cooperating to improve regional trade and investment, and also in tourism. Now, I think the next step is to move toward a common currency and common banking system.

为应对诸多挑战,东盟不懈努力,逐步引进了一系列合作举措,我为东盟点赞。其成员国合作密切,区域贸易和投资不断提升,旅游业也欣欣向荣。现在来看,我认为下一步将是实现货币和银行系统的统一。

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth among its members also has achieved high marks, with 2019's growth projections for several of its members seen outpacing that of China.4

其成员国的国内生产总值(GDP)也屡创新高,多个东盟国家2019年的GDP增速预期超过中国。[4]

A Diverse Group

一个多元化团体

While ASEAN represents a block of smaller countries banding together to create a more powerful global voice, these countries are quite different. When ASEAN was formed, its members largely held similar political systems, but today there are a variety of ideologies, from communism to democracy to monarchy.

东盟代表着许多小国联合起来,在全球舞台上发出更具有影响力的声音,但这些国家其实各不相同。东盟成立时,成员国的政治体系大多相似,但现在各国的意识形态非常多样,包括共产主义、民主和君主政体。

The wealth and development of its members also varies, with per-capita GDP in Singapore and Brunei putting them in a much higher category of wealth than other ASEAN members. There are even some observers who have made the case for Singapore to be considered a developed, as opposed to an emerging, market.

各成员国间的财富和发展水平也参差不齐,新加坡和文莱的人均GDP远高于其他东盟成员国。甚至还有观察者认为新加坡应归为发达国家,而不是新兴市场。

When it comes to competitiveness, the World Economic Forum's 2018-2019 Global Competitiveness Report puts Singapore at the top of the ASEAN pack—the country actually ranks number two globally.5 Malaysia ranked 25, while other ASEAN members were further down the ranks.

从竞争力角度来说,世界经济论坛《2018-2019年全球竞争力报告》将新加坡评为东盟国家第一,实际上,新加坡在全球排名第二。[5]马来西亚排名第二十五,其它东盟国家排名要靠后许多。

In the past five decades, ASEAN countries have made great economic strides, outpacing much of the world at large in terms of growth rates, albeit from a low base. In some cases, this progress has been quite dramatic. For example, since 1960, Singapore's per-capita GDP grew from US$428 to US$52,961, while Malaysia's per-capita GDP grew from US$235 to US$9,507.

在过去的半个世纪中,尽管东盟国家的起点较低,但其经济增速超过了世界上许多国家。从某种角度上来说,这种进步很是惊人。例如,新加坡的人均GDP自1960年起由428美元增至52,961美元,马来西亚的人均GDP则由235美元增至9,507美元。

As investors, the diversity of the region is particularly exciting with a number of potential opportunities in almost every endeavor of activity, from mining to consumer goods to technology. As trade and investment barriers come down, the ASEAN group will represent a huge market.

作为投资者,这一区域的多元化环境极具吸引力,各行各业,从矿业、消费品到科技行业,都有着巨大的潜力。随着贸易和投资壁垒的降低,东盟将聚合成一个巨大的市场。

Consumer Connections

消费者关系

Rising growth rates have also created greater prosperity for the people at large, and since ASEAN was formed we've seen a new generation of consumers emerge. These countries by and large also boast youthful populations in their most productive years, which we think bodes well for their future.

经济增长也为人们带来富裕的生活,自东盟成立以来,我们已看到新一代消费者的涌现。这些国家的整体人口极具活力且正值壮年,这将为其未来发展提供强劲动力。

Consumers are increasingly moving online, even in the newest and smallest markets. For example, since 2014, Myanmar has seen the number of Internet users rise from some 2 million to more than 39 million.6 The use of Smartphones has skyrocketed to pass the 80% penetration rate, according to reports from its three major telecommunications companies. That percentage is even higher than that of the United States!

即使在最新、最小的市场,消费者也日益向线上渠道转移。例如,2014年起,缅甸的互联网用户数由约200万上涨至逾3900万。[6]根据三大电信企业的报告,其智能手机渗透率也迅速突破了80%。这个比例甚至还高于美国!

Myanmar represents an example of the type of technology “leapfrogging” we see taking place in many emerging markets, whereas people are moving straight to mobile phones, bypassing landlines altogether.

缅甸正例证了技术的“跃进”,这常见于许多新兴市场,人们跳过固定电话这一步,直接开始使用手机。

Challenges and Opportunities

挑战和机遇

The biggest general risk to markets in the region we see emanates from a possible “black-swan” event, a market shock that cannot be predicted. China is of course a very important market in Asia, and any slowdown or derailment of its structural adjustment process could have short-term implications for investor sentiment toward ASEAN countries. On an even broader level, the world is still unbalanced—many countries have high debt levels.

据我们观察,该地区国家所面临的最大风险来源于潜在的“黑天鹅”事件,即不可预测的市场冲击。中国是亚洲非常重要的一大市场,在其结构调整过程中出现的任何放缓或错误在短期内都可能影响投资者对东盟国家的情绪。从更广泛的层面看,整个世界仍处于不均衡的局面 – 许多国家债务水平很高。

Some say the “ASEAN Way” has also been a hindrance in many aspects—bogged down with more meetings and discussion than actual action. The region hasn't achieved the type of economic integration—or clout—that the European Union (EU) has. Certainly ASEAN is much further away from the degree of integration that the EU has achieved.

有人称“东盟方式”在很多方面阻碍了发展,即更多地停留在会议和讨论层面,而非付诸实际行动。该地区还未实现如欧盟一般的经济一体化或影响力。显然,东盟的一体化程度还远低于欧盟。

ASEAN economies are just too diverse culturally, economically and politically to rise to be a stronger, unified force, some critics say. In our view, the move toward a common currency and common banking system represents the next step for ASEAN, but we must remember that the concept of a unified Europe goes further back in history. Louis IV bought a large part of Europe under his control. The royal families of Europe intermarried and provided a future base for more cooperation. We don't have a similar history in Asia (except for colonial powers, which had some integrating influence).

一些批评家指出,东盟各国的文化、经济和政治太过多元,很难成为强大的一体化联盟。我们认为,东盟下一步应实现货币和银行系统的统一,但也必须指出,欧盟的统一也并非一日之功。路易四世统治了欧洲大部分地区。欧洲皇室联姻也为后续的合作提供了铺垫。亚洲没有类似的历史(殖民国除外,有一定的一体化影响)。

Perhaps Japan's plan for a “Greater Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere” was a step toward integration, but Japanese military aggression stimulated opposition rather than cooperation. A disadvantageous history does not mean that ASEAN can't become more integrated; there are a number of actions which have moved its members in the right direction. One challenge is China's opposition to a strong ASEAN.

也许日本曾规划的“大东亚共荣圈”代表了某种一体化的企图,但其军事野心更多地引发了抵抗而非合作。历史看来有些不利,但这不意味着东盟无法提升其一体化程度,诸多举措正引领其成员国向正确的方向发展。中国对东盟的强大持反对态度,这是一个挑战。

Nonetheless, there has been a clear trend. For many years, the world's engine of economic growth hasn't been in developed markets, it's been in emerging markets. And Southeast Asia is helping provide the power.

不过,趋势已非常明显。多年以来,世界经济发展的引擎并非由发达国家,而是由新兴市场所驱动。东南亚也助了一臂之力。

I think ASEAN can continue to see progress as these economies continue to grow, and we welcome the opportunity to unlock investment opportunities there. There are so many common areas of cooperation between the countries, there is no doubt to us that ASEAN will continue to develop and progress over the long term.

东盟将会随着其成员经济体的发展而继续成长,我们希望有机会解锁这些市场的投资机遇。其成员国在诸多领域开展合作,从长期看来,东盟无疑会进一步发展、壮大。

Mark Mobius's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

马克博士的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和领英。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

______________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________

1. Source: ASEAN University Network web site.

[1] 资料来源:东盟大学联盟网站。

2. Ibid.

[2] 出处同上。

3. Source: ASEAN.org

[3]资料来源:ASEAN.org

4. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2019. China's 2019 GDP growth estimated at 6.7%. There is no assurance any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[4] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》数据库,二零一九年四月。2019年中国GDP增速预期为6.7%。不保证任何估计、预测或推断将会实现。

5. Source: World Economic Forum, Global CompetitivenessReport, 2018–2019.

[5] 资料来源:世界经济论坛《2018-2019年全球竞争力报告》。

6. Source: Myanmar Times, “Ministry Puts Mobile Penetration at 90 Percent,” July 2019.

[6] 资料来源:《缅甸时报》,“官方消息称手机渗透率高达90%(“Ministry Puts Mobile Penetration at 90 Percent)”,二零一九年七月。

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