为什么说新兴市场担忧被严重夸大
Why We Think EM Fears Are Overblown
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2019-12-15 10:40
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A confluence of factors has caused investor sentiment to sour on emerging markets recently, including global trade tensions, a rising US dollar and idiosyncratic issues in Turkey and Argentina.

近来,一系列因素汇集在一起,包括全球贸易紧张、美元升值以及土耳其和阿根廷的特殊问题,导致投资者对新兴市场情绪低落。

While some of the headlines may seem disconcerting, they don't tell the whole story, according to our investment professionals who are on the ground in many of these regions.

根据我们身处一线的投资专业人士的说法,虽然有些新闻头条看起来令人不安,但它们并不能说明全部情况。

Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity believes it's important to point out emerging markets are not homogeneous, and the countries dominating the dire headlines represent a very small part of the emerging-market universe. The team points to four reasons that support their more positive view of the asset class as a whole.

富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队认为,需要指出的一点是,新兴市场并非同质化,那些占据着可怕新闻头条的国家只是新兴市场中很小的一部分。团队从更全面的角度看待这一资产类别,并给出了其积极看待新兴市场的四个理由。

Emerging Markets Have Been Able to Navigate Rising US Interest Rates

新兴市场已经能够应对不断上升的美国利率

The rising US dollar has been a central factor in emerging-market pain in recent months, and rising interest rates and the short-term impact of US tax reforms have helped fuel this dollar strength.

最近几个月,美元升值一直是新兴市场的痛处,而利率上升以及美国税制改革的短期影响助长了美元走强。

However, should investors really worry that rising rates will derail emerging markets? Maybe not. The US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) past four tightening cycles did not lead to long-term downward spirals in emerging-market equities, as the chart below illustrates.

然而,投资者真的需要担心上涨的利率会影响新兴市场吗?也许不必。美联储此前的四个紧缩周期并未导致新兴市场股票的长期下滑,如下图所示。

In addition, the chart below shows that the previous Fed tightening cycle from June 2003 to June 2007 had a limited impact on emerging-market currencies.

此外,下表显示,美联储上一个紧缩周期(二零零三年六月至二零零七年六月)对新兴市场货币的影响有限。

Emerging Markets Remain Global Growth Leaders

新兴市场仍然是全球增长的领导者

While there's been a lot of attention on strong US economic growth recently, the fact remains that emerging markets have for many years been the world's growth engine.

虽然近期美国经济的强劲增长吸引了许多注意力,但事实上,新兴市场多年来一直是世界经济增长的引擎。

In addition, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity CIO Manraj Sekhon points to a shift in gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth drivers.

此外,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队首席投资官 Manraj Sekhon 指出,国内生产总值(GDP)增长驱动力正在发生转变。

“We're not only witnessing a shift in the geographic epicenter of GDP growth to the East, but even within emerging markets there has been a transformation in the drivers of growth. For instance, several years ago China overtook the United States and Japan in terms of total patents filed, and this is but one of many indicators of the shift towards innovation, technology and more broadly the ‘new economy' that is taking place.” – Manraj Sekhon, September 19, 2019.

“我们不仅目睹了 GDP 增长的地理中心向东方转移,而且甚至在新兴市场内,经济增长的动力也发生了转变。例如,几年前,中国申请的专利总数已超过美国和日本,这只是众多向创新、技术和更广泛且正在发生的“新经济”转型的标志之一。– 曼拉杰·塞克宏(Manraj Sekhon,二零一九年九月十九日。

The table below illustrates how GDP growth for emerging markets overall has outpaced that of developed markets overall—a trend which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees continuing this year and next.1

下表说明了新兴市场整体的 GDP 增长如何超过已发展市场——国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计这一趋势今、明两年将不会改变。[1]

Emerging-Market Trade Isn't US-Dependent

新兴市场贸易并不依赖美国

While much of the trade-tariff attention over the summer has focused on the US-China relationship, there has been less focus on China's approach to trade with other partners. Intra-emerging-market trade has thrived and overtaken exports to developed economies, according to Sekhon.

今年夏天,大部分对贸易、关税的关注点主要集中在美中关系上,对中国与其他伙伴之间贸易方式的关注较少。Sekhon 表示,新兴市场间的贸易蓬勃发展,并超过了向已发展经济体的出口。

“In the last decade, China has shot past the United States to become a far more important export market for most large emerging economies—not least due to its burgeoning consumer market—and accordingly, trade growth now predominantly comes from intra-emerging-market demand. Rising protectionism in the West may further pivot focus towards regional agreements; indeed, China appears eager to replace US leadership in Asia in this area.” – Manraj Sekhon, September 19, 2019.

“过去十年中,中国已经超越美国,成为大多数大型新兴经济体更为重要的出口市场——尤其是由于其迅速发展的消费市场——因此,贸易增长现在主要源于新兴市场内部的需求。西方日益上升的保护主义可能进一步将焦点转向区域协议;确实,中国似乎急于取代美国在亚洲的领导地位。- 曼拉杰·塞克宏,二零一九年九月十九日。

The chart below shows the growth in intra-Asian trade and an overall shift away from dependence on developed markets as an export destination.

下表显示了亚洲内部贸易的增长以及从以往依赖已发展市场作为出口目的地的整体转变。

Emerging-Market Debt Appears Reasonable

新兴市场债务似乎处于合理水平

Since the Asian Financial Crisis in the 1990s, government funding through external debt has been on the decline. While it has moved up a bit in recent years, the charts below show developed markets actually have much higher government debt burdens. And, emerging-market households have stronger savings rates than developed markets, too.

自上世纪九十年代的亚洲金融危机以来,政府的外债资金一直在减少。虽然近年来有所上升,但下面的图表显示,已发展国家市场的政府债务负担实际上要重得多。而且,新兴市场的家庭储蓄率也比已发展市场高。

The Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity team often takes a contrarian approach, using periods of market weakness to uncover opportunities on an individual stock level.

富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队通常采取相反的方法,即利用市场疲软时期发掘个股机会。

In recent commentaries, Sukumar Rajah, senior managing director and director of portfolio management, talks about opportunities in India, while Bassel Khatoun, managing director and director of portfolio management, Frontier and MENA, has an eye on Africa.

在最近的评论中,高级董事总经理和投资组合管理总监苏库马尔·拉贾(Sukumar Rajah)谈及印度的机会, 而董事总经理和前缘及中东北非市场投资组合管理总监巴塞尔·哈特农(Bassel Khatoun)则关注非洲的发展

In addition, the team believes global advancements in e-commerce, mobile banking, biotechnology, robotics and autonomous vehicles have opened a universe of opportunity that is not confined to the United Kingdom, the United States and other developed markets.

此外,团队认为,全球在电子商务、移动银行、生物技术、机器人和自动车辆方面的进步开启了全新的投资窗口,且并不局限于英国、美国和其他已发展市场。

“Macroeconomic factors…have been primary contributors to market volatility this year. During such periods, EM equities generally face heightened risk aversion and indiscriminate selling, often at the expense of solid fundamentals. As long-term investors, we attempt to look past short-term market turbulence to identify long-term values.” – Manraj Sekhon and Chetan Sehgal, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, September 17, 2019.

“宏观经济因素……是今年市场波动的主要原因。在此期间,新兴市场股票一般面临更高的风险规避和滥售行为,通常以坚实的基本面为代价。作为长期投资者,我们试图透过短期市场动荡,识别长期价值。” – 曼拉杰·塞克宏 切坦·塞加尔,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队,二零一九年九月十七日。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, July 2019.

[1]国际货币基金组织,《世界经济展望》,二零一九年七月。

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