数字时代的新兴市场
Emerging Markets in the Digital Age
1902字
2019-12-15 10:22
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火星译客

My colleagues and I have been actively speaking about the evolution taking place in many emerging markets over the past few decades. We've seen dramatic shifts occurring, with the often one-dimensional economic models of the past giving way to new and diverse growth drivers. This evolution includes the rapid embrace of new technologies and the rapid digitalization of economies. Here, Carlos Hardenberg, senior vice president and managing director at Templeton Emerging Markets Group, further addresses the topic.

我和同事们一直在热烈讨论过去几十年很多新兴市场的演变。我们见证了许多翻天覆地的变化,过去常见的一维经济模式,现已被新型且多元化的动力增长模式所取代。这种演变包括快速接受新科技和数字化经济迅猛发展。邓普顿新兴市场团队高级副总裁兼董事总经理卡洛斯·哈登伯格(Carlos Hardenberg)将在文中进一步谈论这个话题。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Dutch, French, Italian, Spanish

本帖另外提供中文(简体)、荷兰文、法文、意大利文、西班牙文版

Looking at emerging-market economies as a whole, we've seen a dramatic transformation from the models of the past, which were often based on commodity exports. We've seen a new generation of highly innovative companies located in emerging markets moving into higher value-added production processes and services. We think it's a very exciting time for investors in this space.

纵观整体新兴市场经济,过去常见的基于商品出口的经济模式已发生巨大的转变。新兴市场中新一代高度创新公司转向高附加值的生产流程和服务。这对于该领域的投资者来说是一个非常令人激动的时刻。

The technology sector in emerging markets is providing us with many interesting opportunities—from hardware to software to various forms of e-commerce and entertainment.

从硬件到软件再到各种形式的电子商务和娱乐活动,新兴市场的科技行业为我们提供了很多有趣的机会。

Autonomous driving is an example of the growing clout of emerging-market companies. Many producers of the components and infrastructure to make autonomous driving a reality are located in emerging markets, particularly in Asia. And, they are highly specialized. For example, sensors, cameras, other lightweight components and software to enable autonomous driving are oftentimes produced in emerging markets.

自动驾驶是新兴市场公司影响力逐渐增强的一个例子。很多实现自动驾驶的零部件和基础设施生产商都位于新兴市场,尤其是亚洲。而且,他们的专业化程度极高。例如,自动驾驶用到的传感器、摄像机、其他轻型组件和软件通常产自新兴市场。

Another example is in mobile-phone technology. Some 80% of the components of one popular mobile phone are made in emerging markets, from the battery to the camera to the casing (see image below).

移动电话技术是另一个例子。一款畅销手机约 80%的零部件都产自新兴市场,从电池到摄像头再到外壳(见下图)。

We know how technology has touched nearly every aspect of our lives. It has transformed how we communicate with each other, how we shop, work and play. This is true for consumers across the globe, even in what one might consider the least-developed economies. It has been estimated that 40-50% of the world's population has access to the internet, and 70% of youth aged 15-24 use it.1 It wasn't all that long ago that no one did.

我们知道,科技几乎已渗透到我们生活的方方面面。科技改变了人与人之间的交流方式,以及购物、工作和娱乐的方式。这对于全球的消费者来说是真实的,甚至在可能被视为最不发达的经济体中亦是如此。据估计,世界上有40-50%的人口可以上网,而15-24岁的年轻人中有70%使用互联网。[1]不久前这些都还不曾发生。

The number of internet users has increased tenfold from 1999 to 2013. The first billion was reached in 2005, the second billion in 2010 and the third billion in 2014.2 When looking at the amount of internet users globally, China (21%) and India (14%) have the largest share, above the United States (9%), Japan (3%) and Germany (2%).3

一九九九年至二零一三年期间,互联网用户的数量增加了十倍。二零零五年突破十亿大关,二零一零年达到二十亿,然后在二零一四年增加到三十亿。[2]从全球互联网用户数量来看,中国(21%)和印度(14%)的份额最大,高于美国(9%)、日本(3%)和德国(2%)。[3]

China's “Internet Plus” strategy, unveiled in 2015, demonstrates the key role the government hopes online businesses will play in fueling its next stage of economic growth. The strategy aims to increase digitalization across the economy and to increase the presence of China's internet-based businesses globally.

中国二零一五年公布的“互联网+”策略表明,政府希望网上业务在推动下一个阶段的经济增长中发挥关键作用。该策略旨在提高经济数字化程度,同时增加中国互联网相关企业在全球的份额。

Many members of this new generation of “digitalized” consumers (including those in emerging markets) have probably never visited a physical bank branch, have never used a telephone tethered to a cord and are increasingly shunning brick-and-mortar stores to buy clothes and other wares online.

很多新一代的“数字化”消费者(包括新兴市场消费者)可能从未去过实体银行、从未使用过有线电话,而且越来越不愿意去实体店,他们宁愿在网上购买衣服及其他商品。

This increasing internet access means increasing opportunities. Take Indonesia, for example. Research from the International Telecommunications Union has found for each 1% increase in the internet penetration rate, unemployment growth would be reduced by 8.61%.4 The entire effect of broadband on unemployment is a combination of new jobs and existing jobs saved that otherwise would have contributed to the unemployment rate.5

互联网用户越来越多意味着机会越来越多。以印尼为例,国际电信联盟的研究发现,互联网普及率每增加1%,失业增长就会下降8.61%。[4]宽带对失业的整体影响是将新工作和现有工作结合起来,否则会导致失业率上升。[5]

In turn, consumers have more discretionary income, and the middle class is able to gain more clout. This increased spending power has driven a more consumer-oriented culture, and new and more diverse investment opportunities.

因此,消费者有更多可支配收入,中产阶级也日益壮大。消费能力的提高推动了更多以消费者为导向的文化,以及新的和更加多元化的投资机会。

According to McKinsey research, if Indonesia fully embraces digitization, it can realize an estimated USD $150 billion in growth—10% of GDP—by 2025.6 Harnessing digital technology can boost productivity and expand economic participation across the economy. While e-commerce is growing rapidly in Indonesia—one of the world's 10 largest economies by purchasing power parity—there is still room for more progress.

根据麦肯锡的研究,如果印尼完全实现数字化,那么到二零二五年,估计能实现经济增长1,500亿美元(占国内生产总值的10%)。[6]利用数字技术可提高生产力和扩大经济参与度。虽然印尼的电子商务正在飞速发展,而且根据购买力平价计算,印尼已成为全球十大经济体之一,但仍有进一步发展的空间。

In 2013, the Pew Research Center surveyed nearly 40,000 people in 39 countries and asked the question: Will children in your country be better off than their parents?7 Interestingly, in most of the advanced economies, the answer to the question was overwhelmingly “no.” Two-thirds of people surveyed in the United States answered that way, and the people in Britain weren't much more optimistic their children would be better off than them, either.8

二零一三年,皮尤研究中心对39个国家中近4万人进行了调查,并提出了一个问题:您国家的孩子会比他们的父母过得更好吗?[7]有趣的是,在大多数发达经济体中,答案是一边倒的“否”。美国三分之二受访者的回答也是如此,而英国人也没有很乐观地认为孩子会比他们过得更好。[8]

In contrast, in China, 82% of those surveyed expected their children to do better, and in Brazil, 79% felt that way.9 In Chile, Malaysia, Venezuela, Indonesia, the Philippines, Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya, the majority of people surveyed also believed that the next generation will be better off than the current one.

相比之下,中国 82%的受访者预期他们的孩子会过得更好,而巴西则有79%的人这么认为。[9]在智利、马来西亚、委内瑞拉、印尼、菲律宾、尼日利亚、加纳和肯尼亚,大多数受访者也认为下一代人的生活将会比这一代更好。

A Changing Profile

不断变化的企业

Not only have consumers changed, the profile of what one might think of as an emerging-market company has as well. In the past, these businesses were generally fairly simple, nascent business models. They were highly geared towards infrastructure.

不仅仅是消费者变了,人们所认知的新兴市场公司的情况也发生了变化。过去,这些企业普遍都是相当简单的新兴商业模式,高度集中在基础设施领域。

During the last 10 years or so, we've seen a gradual migration to  increasingly sophisticated business models. Emerging-market companies have established their own brand names, their own niches and have expanded beyond their home countries or region, often by acquisition.

过去十年左右,商业模式已逐渐变得越来越复杂。新兴市场公司已建立自己的品牌和生态圈,而且走出国门或所在地区(一般通过收购)。

We are seeing a new generation of emerging-market companies develop. By and large, emerging-market companies have also seen healthy cash-flow generation and improving earnings. In the past, there were certain periods where corporate balance sheets were under severe stress due to foreign-exchange debt. They ran into problems, particularly when the local currency came under pressure.

新一代新兴市场公司正在发展。总的来说,新兴市场公司也拥有稳健的现金流及盈利增长。过去一些时期,公司资产负债表因外汇债务而承受巨大的压力。这些公司遇到了困难,尤其是在本地货币受压的情况下。

Today, these currency issues seem to be managed much better and corporate balance sheets appear to be much healthier. In general, emerging-market companies have deleveraged over time; they have cleaned up their balance sheets and repaired their business models.

今天,这些货币问题似乎得到了更好的管理,而且公司资产负债表也似乎更为稳健。总之,新兴市场公司已随着时间的推移去杠杆化;他们清理了资产负债表,还修复了商业模式。

It's Still about Growth

关键仍在于经济增长

One characteristic that has generally defined emerging markets in the past—and still does—is their high growth rate. Emerging-market economies have been growing significantly faster than developed-market economies, and we anticipate this trend should likely continue.

高增长率是人们过去和现在定义新兴市场的一个特征。新兴市场经济体的增长远高于发达市场经济体,预期这种趋势应会延续。

Despite this higher rate of growth, valuations generally appear much more reasonable than in developed markets. You can invest in many of these companies at a price that is a significant discount to what you would have to pay to invest in an equivalent business in the developed world.

尽管增长率较高,但估值普遍比发达市场更为合理。投资其中很多公司的价格,可能远低于投资发达市场同类公司所需要支付的价格。

Business models in emerging markets have become far more sophisticated and robust than they ever were in the past. We are very excited about the opportunities we're finding in emerging markets today and the potential for the future.

新兴市场商业模式已变得比以往任何时候更加复杂和稳健。目前在新兴市场发现的机会和未来的发展潜力让我们感到很兴奋。

Carlos Hardenberg's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

哈登伯格博士的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

_______________________________________

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1. Sources: Internet Live Stats, International Telecommunications Union Facts and Figures, 2019.

[1] 资料来源:互联网实时统计、国际电信联盟事实与数字,二零一九年。

2.Source: Internet Live Stats, 2019.

[2] 资料来源:互联网实时统计,二零一九年。

3. Ibid.

[3] 同上。

4. Source: International Telecommunications Union, “Impact of Broadband on the Economy,” April 2012

[4] 资料来源:国际电信联盟,“宽带对经济的影响”,二零一二年四月。

5.Ibid.

[5] 同上。

6. Source: McKinsey & Company, “Unlocking Indonesia's Digital Opportunity,” October 2016. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[6] 资料来源:麦肯锡公司,“开启印尼的数字化机会”(Unlocking Indonesia’s Digital Opportunity),二零一六年十月。不保证任何估计、推测或预测会实现。

7. Source: Pew Research Center, “Welcome to the Global Middle Class Surge,” July 2013.

[7] 资料来源:皮尤研究中心,“全球中产阶级汹涌而至”(Welcome to the Global Middle Class Surge),二零一三年七月。

8. Ibid.

[8] 同上。

9. Ibid.

[9] 同上。

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