旅行与囧途
On Travels and Travails
6839字
2019-12-15 09:33
55阅读
火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Polish

这篇文章还提供中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、波兰文版

As the focus of my work is emerging markets, I don't spend a lot of time in the United States anymore, even though I grew up there. But like many people, I took a bit of time off this summer to enjoy a visit with family. We traveled to Mackinac Island in the state of Michigan, situated in Lake Huron. It was a unique experience for me in that it is the only island I've been on where there are no automobiles. The only transportation options are horse-and-buggy or bicycle. It really was like going back in time! While in North America, I also made a stop in Canada and sat down with one of my colleagues to record a podcast. We talked at length about a range of topics, including my childhood, my career, what I'm excited about today and why I never plan to retire!

我在美国长大,但是由于我的工作重心是新兴市场,因此我在美国待的时间并不多。和许多人一样,今年夏天我给自己放了一个小长假,享受与家人一起出游的时光。我们去了密歇根州的麦基诺岛,这个小岛在休伦湖上。对我来说这是一次非常独特的经历,因为我还是第一次来到一座没有汽车的岛屿。在这里,只能借助马车或自行车出行。真的仿佛时光倒流!这次在北美,我还去了一趟加拿大,与一名同事一起录制了一期播客。我们深入探讨了各种话题,包括我的童年、职业生涯、令我为之兴奋的事物和我计划永不退休的原因!

You can listen to the full podcast and read the transcript below. I encourage you to listen or read through to the end, as I answer a few questions that have been submitted to me via Twitter and LinkedIn. Maybe I've answered one of yours!

敬请收听完整播客或阅读以下文章。真诚希望您听完本期播客或阅读本篇文章,在本期节目中我也回答了部分粉丝通过推特和领英向我提出的一些问题。也许其中就有您的提问!

Here are some highlights:

精彩片段节选:

  • One day, when I was a student at Syracuse University, I saw on the bulletin board: scholarships in Japan. I thought this was kind of intriguing. I got the scholarship and I studied Japanese and Japanese civilization. After six months I decided that's going to be my career. I'm going to be spending my career in Asia.
  • Sir John Templeton was quite a personality. The thing that impressed me the most about him was that, first of all, he was very frugal. He was very patient, very even-tempered. I never saw him get angry, lose his temper in any direction.
  • I think the key to a successful career is that you've got to love what you're doing. If you're unhappy. Don't do it. Get out and do something else. The other is to keep an open mind. Don't make any conclusions until you have all the facts. Try to learn as much as you can and stay humble. Don't try to draw conclusions based on your own opinions or your own biases. Be ready to accept new ideas.
  • Five or 10 years from now, I think we are going to see consumer markets in emerging economies become bigger than what you see in Europe or in the United States. The most important thing, I think, is the youth. The populations in emerging markets are generally younger. People are getting married, buying houses, buying furniture. They are going to become big consumers going forward.
  • If a country is going to grow, the resources in that economy have to be allocated by the market, not by the government. So that's been the sea change that's created a whole surge of growth in many emerging-market countries.
  • 还在雪城大学读书时,我有一天在公告板上看到一则公告:日本留学奖学金。当时我就想,这很有意思。后来,我成功获得了奖学金,学习了日语,还了解了日本文明。六个月后,我便决定了,这就是我的事业。我要在亚洲发展我的事业。
  • 约翰·邓普顿爵士很有个性。我对他印象最深刻的一点是他非常节俭。他非常有耐心,脾气也很温和。我从未见他生气,或是朝任何人发脾气。
  • 我认为,要拥有成功的事业,必须热爱你所做的事情。如果你觉得不快乐,那么不要去做。脱身出来,去尝试其他事情。另一点就是要保持开放的心态。在没有了解全部事实之前,千万不要下结论。尽一切可能去学习,保持谦卑姿态。不要根据个人意见或偏见作出结论。时刻准备好接受新的理念。
  • 今后五到十年,我认为新兴市场的消费市场会快速增长,甚至超过现在的欧洲或美国。我认为,最重要的因素是年轻。新兴市场人口普遍较为年轻,年轻人结婚、买房、置办家具。他们将成为未来消费群体的中流砥柱。
  • 如果一个国家要进步,那么其资源必须由市场来分配,而不是政府。这一巨大的转变也正是许多新兴市场国家出现爆发式经济增长的原因。

The full transcript of the podcast follows below.

本期播客全文:

Keith Damsell:  Maybe we could talk a little bit about your family life and the background of your mother and father. It's really interesting stuff.

基思·丹塞尔(Keith Damsell):   我们可以谈谈您的家庭生活和您父母的背景吗,应该很有意思。

Mark Mobius:  I come from a very international family in the sense that my father came from Germany, my mother came from Puerto Rico. So in my household, I heard German being spoken, I heard Spanish being spoken, and I ended up only learning English because my mother and father had to communicate with each other in English, basically. So, it was a quite interesting love story because my father and mother met in New York. I think they were both getting their citizenship and they had to go to school, and that's probably how they got together.

马克·莫比乌斯(Mark Mobius):  我来自一个很国际化的家庭,父亲是德国人,母亲是波多黎各人。在我的家里,有人说德语,有人说西班牙语,但我只学会了英语,因为我的父母基本上只用英语交流。他们的爱情故事很有意思,他们相遇在纽约。他们当时都在申请入籍,也都在上学,可能他们就是因此而相遇。

I was born in Bellmore, Long Island. Then after high school, I got a scholarship to study in Boston, Boston University and I started in fine arts.

我出生于纽约长岛的Bellmore。高中毕业后,我获得了波士顿大学奖学金,开始攻读艺术专业。

Keith Damsell:  And when you say fine arts, where you were writing or painting or…

基思·丹塞尔:   您说的艺术,是指写作、绘画或是……

Mark Mobius:  It was everything. It was art, it was music, it was drama… it was a full curriculum. I particularly liked the drama, that part of it. And in fact, for a while I worked at WGBH, the educational TV station in Boston.

马克·莫比乌斯: 都有。美术、音乐、戏剧……各种课程。我特别喜欢戏剧。事实上,我还在波士顿教育电视台WGBH工作过。

Keith Damsell: What were you doing at WGBH?

基思·丹塞尔: 您在WGBH做些什么工作呢?

Mark Mobius: Just, you know, the guy with the camera… cleaning up or doing things, you know. It was really funny, some of the things that happened. We used to play tricks on the guy doing the news because, usually, they just have a chest shot. And one day, what we did is we went up behind him and took his pants down while he was doing the news and because he couldn't break, but we did a lot of hijinks like that. As my education progressed, I got more interested in psychology, social psychology, and ended up at the school of mass communications studying social psychology, and I got my master's degree there.

马克·莫比乌斯: 你懂的,扛着摄影机……打扫,做杂事。那时发生了一些很有趣的事。我们常常会逗新闻主播,在镜头里他们一般只露上半身。有一天,我们绕到他的背后,然后把他的裤子扒下来,但他正在播新闻,又不能中断。那个时候我们搞了很多这样的恶作剧。上学期间,我对心理学、社会心理学愈发感兴趣,后来到大众传媒学院学习社会心理学,并拿到了硕士学位。

Then one day, I saw on the bulletin board: scholarships in Japan—Syracuse University offering scholarships. I thought this was kind of intriguing. First, I had to go to the map to find out where Japan was because, you know, geography is not one of the strong points of the educational system in the US.

就在那时,有一天我在公告板上看到一则公告:日本留学——雪城大学提供奖学金。当时我就想,这很有意思。一开始,我还得到地图上找日本在哪里,我想你明白,美国教育体系里地理是弱项。

I got the scholarship, and I studied Japanese and Japanese civilization. And then, joined a whole group of people from different backgrounds. We stayed with families, and I stayed with the family in Kyoto, an insurance executive. That was quite an experience, living in a Japanese house sleeping on the tatami mat. So after six months I decided that's going to be my career. I'm going to be spending my career in Asia.

后来,我成功获得了奖学金,学习了日语,还了解了日本文明。当时就这样与一群不同背景的同学一起去了日本。我们寄宿在别人家里,我住在京都的一户人家,主人是保险公司的高管。住在日本人家里,睡在榻榻米上,那是一种很特别的体验。六个月后,我便决定了,这就是我的事业。我要在亚洲发展我的事业。

But there was an interim period where I could study at the University of New Mexico. Again, I studied experimental psychology there. We were running rats through mazes. They called us “the rat men,” because you know we had all these experiments.

不过当时有一段过渡期,我在新墨西哥大学继续学习。我又选择了学习实验心理学,当时我们就像是迷宫里四处找路的老鼠。我们有各种各样的实验,他们都叫我们“小白鼠”。

Then, I ended up in MIT [Massachusetts Institute of Technology] studying economic development and political science and economics. But, the emphasis was on economic development which was really timely when you look back because that's where I ended up. Emerging markets is all about economic development and at that time, the professors were focused on trying to find reasons why countries grow. And eventually, the World Bank, the IFC [International Finance Corporation], USAID [United Sates Agency for International Development] ended up with a conclusion that the only way to make countries grow is by having them capture a market. In other words, have a market economy, rather than a socialist economy where the state determines the allocation of capital and resources.

后来,我又到麻省理工学院学习经济发展和政治经济学。但是,重点是经济发展,回想起来,会发现这很合时宜,因为这就是我后来所做的事情。新兴市场的一切都围绕着经济发展,那时,教授们都致力于探索国家经济发展的原因。最终,世界银行、国际金融公司和美国国际开发署得出了一个结论,推动国家发展的唯一方法是让他们拥有市场。换句话说,即是拥有市场经济,而不是由国家决定资金和资源分配的社会主义经济。

Then, I was sent to [South] Korea and I lived in Korea for about a year. Then, to Thailand another year and then Hong Kong, and I stayed in Hong Kong and started my own company.

那时,我被派往朝鲜,在那里住了近一年。后来又在泰国住了一年,随后又去了香港,在那里我开始了创业之旅。

Keith Damsell: 

Keith Damsell: Was this a marketing company or did you…

基思·丹塞尔:是一个市场推广公司,还是……

Mark Mobius: Survey research and industrial research.

马克·莫比乌斯:是一个问卷调查和产业调研公司。

Keith Damsell: Okay.

基思·丹塞尔:噢。

Keith Damsell: So in a sense, very similar to some of the on-the-ground investing research that you're doing now? How did you shift from that kind of consumer research to the investing world? How did that happen?

基思·丹塞尔:所以,从某种程度上说,与您现在做的一些一线投资调研很类似?您是如何从消费领域的调研转型到投资领域呢?是源于怎样的契机?

Mark Mobius: Well, in order to live. In order to survive.

马克·莫比乌斯:为了活下来。为了生存。

You know, this is the first time I had my own company. I knew absolutely nothing about business. You know, you study economics, you have no practical experience whatsoever. I really learned the hard way. And, of course, to survive you had to do anything that the client wanted.

这也是我第一次创业。我对业务一无所知。就好比一个人学习了经济学,但是却没有一点实践经验。我也吃了很多苦头。当然,为了生存,客户要求什么就得做什么。

So I started getting these assignments, but the problem was—you know, when you're a small organization like this you're either selling or you are actually doing the research, and it was very difficult to build up a really continuous business. Then one day, a woman from California came to see me and said, “Look, I want to find manufacturers of toys.” She had the rights for the Peanuts characters—Snoopy and all the rest of those. She had been very lucky because Charles Schulz had given her the rights to almost everything because at that time, Peanuts was not that well-known. So she was starting to manufacture in Asia.

后来,我开始拿到一些业务,但是问题是,当你的企业很小,你既要推销自己,又要做调研,很难建立持续性业务。一天,一位来自加州的女士找到我:“我想找一个玩具生产商”。她有《花生漫画》动漫人物的版权——史努比与朋友们。她很幸运,因为查尔斯·舒尔茨几乎给了她所有授权,那时《花生漫画》还没有那么有名。所以她开始在亚洲生产。

And so she said, “Look, find manufacturers for us.” So we started finding manufacturers in Korea and other parts of Asia.

她说:“帮我找到生产商。”于是我们开始在韩国和亚洲其他国家寻找合适的生产商。

And one day we said, “Have you ever thought of selling these?”

有一天,我们问她:“你有没有想过在这里卖这些产品?”

She said, “No, can people afford what we have? Do people buy these sorts of things?”

她说:“没有,他们买得起我们的产品吗?他们愿意买这些东西吗?”

I said, “Why not? They're consumers.” So we started selling the Snoopy toys and that became a bigger business than the research business.

我说:“为什么不呢?他们也是消费者。”后来我们便开始卖那些史努比玩具,这一业务后期做得比我们的调研业务还大。

We built that business up to be fairly big, and my Chinese staff and partners really were running that. I said, “Look, why don't you take it over. I'm more interested in doing research.” And it just so happened that one of my clients asked me to do a study of the stock market.

我们把这个业务做得非常大,当时这块业务由我的中国员工和合作伙伴负责运营。我提议说,“嘿,不如你把这个业务接过去,我对市场研究更感兴趣。”后来,一位客户请我做股票市场的研究。

I had no idea what the stock market did. I mean, I'd done research for my thesis on COMSAT—Communications Satellite Corporation. But other than that, I really didn't have much knowledge of what was happening in the stock market. But I started doing research and I did technical analysis and so forth, and I was pretty lucky because I predicted the fall of the Hong Kong market.

我当时根本不懂股票市场。我在做论文的时候,研究过美国通信卫星公司。但除此以外,我真的不懂股票市场里发生的事情。但我还是选择开始研究股票,也做了一些技术分析,非常幸运,我预测到了香港市场的下滑。

So I said, “maybe I ought to look at this,” you know. So I saw an ad in the paper about this brokerage looking for research talent and I applied for a job, because I said, “Look, I've got to start from scratch. I'll give my company to my Chinese compatriots and start this new area.” And I started with Vickers da Costa, which was one of the big brokerage companies in the UK at that time, but they were very big in Asia and in Japan in particular.

我感觉,“也许我应该看看这个”。后来我在报纸上看到一家经纪公司在招聘研究分析员,我就去应征了,因为我觉得,“我得从零开始。我可以把我的公司交给中国同事,开始涉足这个新的领域。”于是我就开始了在Vickers da Costa的工作,这是英国当时最大的经纪公司之一,他们在亚洲和日本的业务非常大。

And then, eventually, I was sent to Taiwan to open an office for the company. While I was with Vickers da Costa, I had been making presentations to clients and one of them was Templeton, Sir John. I went to the Bahamas a few times, and he came up with this emerging-markets idea, fund, emerging-markets fund, and he asked me to run it. And I told him, “Look, if you want to be in emerging markets, you've got to be in emerging markets. You should open an office in Hong Kong.” And that's what we did.

所以后来,我被公司派到台湾,负责设立新的办事处。在Vickers da Costa工作时,我为客户作分析报告,其中一位客户就是约翰·邓普顿爵士。我去过巴哈马几次,他提出了新兴市场的想法,并设立了新兴市场基金,还邀请我来管理这只基金。我对他提议:“如果您想要做新兴市场基金,必须要身处新兴市场。您要在香港设一个办事处。”这也正是我们后来所做的事情。

Keith Damsell: And at that time, the emerging markets, the universe was very, very small.

基思·丹塞尔:那个时候,新兴市场整体规模还非常小。

Mark Mobius: At that time, we started in 1987 with 100 million [US] dollars with six markets that we could invest in. You must remember, all of Latin America was either socialist, dictatorship, closed to foreign investors. There was no Eastern Europe, the Iron Curtain. Asia, a lot of the countries were closed. China was completely closed. The Soviet Union was closed. There were few that were open for investment. So, we started investing in those six countries, five of them in Asia and one of them was Mexico and that's where we started.

马克·莫比乌斯:我们于1987年起步,拿着1亿美元,却仅有六个可投资市场。你肯定还记得,那时拉丁美洲要么是社会主义,要么是独裁主义,把外国投资者紧关在大门以外。受铁幕演说的影响,东欧市场也是关闭的。亚洲的很多国家亦是如此。中国紧锁大门,苏联也是。开放给投资者的国家实在屈指可数。所以,我们只能从这六个国家开始投资,五个在亚洲,一个在墨西哥,这就是我们的起点。

Keith Damsell: Can you talk a little bit about working with Sir John and what that experience was like?

基思·丹塞尔:您能说说和约翰·邓普顿爵士共事是一种怎样的体验吗?

Mark Mobius:   Sir John was quite a personality. The thing that impressed me the most about him was that, first of all, he was very frugal. He was very patient, very even-tempered. I never saw him get angry, lose his temper in any direction. And very far-seeing. He always said to look five years at least into the future. And I remember when he was 70-something years old, he bought a whole warehouse of amethysts, which at that time were not worth much.

马克·莫比乌斯:约翰·邓普顿爵士很有个性。我对他印象最深刻的一点是他非常节俭。他非常有耐心,脾气也很温和。我从未见他生气,或是朝任何人发脾气。而且很有远见。他总是说,看问题至少要看到未来五年后。当时他已经七十多岁了,买了一整个仓库的紫水晶,当时还不值什么钱。

Somebody asked him, “How long do you think it will take for this to increase in value?” He said about 20 years. This is when he was 70 years old!

有人问他,“您感觉这个多久会升值?”他说估计要二十年。而他当时已经七十岁了。

You know, and he did the same thing with property. He'd buy property and say, “Well, this will appreciate in about 30 years.” You know, that sort of thing.

他当时对房地产的态度也是如此,他买了一处物业,说,“这东西估计三十年后会升值。”事实正是如此。

So he really had this belief that you had to take a long-range view. You've got to be patient. And of course, bargain hunting. He always said you've got to buy when everybody else is selling and sell when everybody else is buying.

他坚信,投资要有长久的目光。必须要耐心。当然了,也要找准抄底的时机。他总是说,别人都抛的时候你得买,别人买入的时候你得抛。

Keith Damsell:  For you, as an investor, did Templeton's philosophy kind of inform your thinking or did it, kind of, create a bit of a template, because you were already a global stock picker at that point?

基思·丹塞尔:对您来说,作为一名投资者,邓普顿的哲学是否影响着您的思维方式,或者说是创造了一种模式,因为您当时已经在全球范围内进行股票选股了吗?

Mark Mobius: Well when I started, remember that I was limited to Taiwan and Hong Kong. We did some Asia, but, generally speaking, it was quite narrow. When they approached me in Taiwan, it was difficult to leave Taiwan. I was like a king there. I was the head of a single fund, no competition. You know, I'd arrive at my office, take my Chinese stamp, stamp the documents, sign them and go for lunch. I had a car and driver. The good old days. It was a great life. So, it was difficult to make that decision.

马克·莫比乌斯:刚开始的时候,我记得仅仅局限于台湾和香港市场。我们也做了一些亚洲市场,不过总的来说,范围还是比较窄的。他们在台湾找到我的时候,我甚至觉得要离开台湾是件很难的事情。在那里,我感觉自己像一个皇帝。我是一只基金的负责人,也没有竞争。这么说吧,我每天到办公室,给文件盖公章、签字,然后去吃午饭。我有车,有司机。那些日子很好,生活非常滋润。所以,当时做出那个决定非常困难。

But then, the lure of doing something globally was very enticing. So I said, “Okay, I'm going to try this.”

不过那时,可以做些面向全球的事情还是很有吸引力。所以我说,“好,我试试看。”

Interesting enough, as you know, some people think that Sir John only focused on value i.e.,  cheap stocks, low P/E, low price-to-book, and so forth, but that was not really the case. One of the things he emphasized—and if you read anything about him—you'd find that, he emphasized flexibility. He said no one way of investing will always work. You've got to be willing to change and adjust. And unfortunately, a lot of times we didn't pay attention to that. You know, just sticking to a value system, at least value in the way you think of it, you know, low P/E, low price-to-book and so forth, didn't work all the time. And a good example was the Internet age resulted in companies with huge P/Es but performed very, very well. So it was a very important thing to remember that he was very flexible and open minded.

很有趣的是,有些人认为约翰·邓普顿爵士只关注价格,即便宜的股票、低的市盈率和市净率倍数等,但事实并非如此。如果你读过有关他的故事,你会知道,他非常注重灵活性。他说,没有任何一种投资方式是一劳永逸的。我们需要适时改变和适应。很不幸的是,很多时候我们都忽略了他说的这一点。仅仅依靠价格体系,或者说是你所认为的价格,低的市盈率、市净率倍数等,并不是通用法则。很好的一个示例就是互联网时代,虽然很多企业市盈率倍数非常高,但是表现非常出色。所以很重要的一点,要记住,他是一个很灵活、心态开放的人。

Keith Damsell: So fast-forward for a little bit in your career. The last few years have been challenging returns for the emerging markets, and we've seen this dramatic shift in recent months where the returns are coming back very strongly. Can you talk about what's fueling those gains in recent months?

基思·丹塞尔:让我们快进一些,聊聊您的事业近况。近几年新兴市场的回报非常险峻,但我们也看到近几个月来有了很大的转变,回报强势反弹。您能谈谈是什么驱动近几个月的反弹吗?

Mark Mobius: You know, that's a very interesting point and it underlines the importance of being patient, because the three years up to January of last year, emerging markets underperformed the developed markets, particularly the US. So a lot of people abandoned emerging markets, but if they had waited for another year they would see a big surge. So if people had bought in when things were bad they would have done quite well now. In our own case, what we did is, we started looking at new industries, particularly Internet companies.

马克·莫比乌斯:这是很有趣的一点,正验证了耐心的重要性。截至去年一月的前三年,新兴市场表现不如发达国家,尤其是美国。很多人就放弃了新兴市场,但如果他们再多等一年,他们就会看到很大的增益。如果在低谷时买入,现在回报会很可观。我们当时开始寻找一些新行业,尤其是互联网企业。

Now in the past, we didn't like a lot of the companies because they didn't earn, they didn't have any earnings. But now, they were companies that were earning. Their price/earnings ratios were high, but not that high, considering the growth rates. So we, you know, started investing in those companies and that helped us a lot. Also, we emphasize consumers because we're finding that per-capita incomes in many of these countries is growing at a high rate. So we wanted to get exposure to the consumer market. And in addition to that, the small- and middle-cap [capitalization] companies were an area that we wanted to emphasize as well, because that's where the consumer stocks were. Many of the large-cap stocks, you know, the banks, the commodity companies are big cap. But we wanted to get those consumer companies that tended to be small and middle cap.

在过去,我们不喜欢一些企业的原因是他们没有盈利。但现在,他们已经开始盈利。他们的市盈率倍数很高,但考虑到他们的市场增幅,也没有高的离谱。所以我们开始投资这些企业,这对我们帮助很大。我们也重视消费领域,因为我们发现这些国家的人均收入正在高速增长。我们也希望在消费品市场进行配置。并且,中小市值的企业也是我们关注的重点,大多数消费股都属于这类企业。有许多大市值股,比如银行、大宗商品类,但我们更关注中小市值的消费品企业。

Keith Damsell: In these emerging markets, what is your five, 10-year forecast when you try and look to that growing middle class—some of those places where you're investing now?

基思·丹塞尔:您关注中产阶级的增长,那么您如何预测这些新兴市场,包括您所投资的市场,五年、十年后的发展呢?

Mark Mobius: Well, look five or 10 years from now, you're going to see these consumer markets become bigger than what you see in Europe, in the US. Because look, China and India each have a billion people and their incomes are rising. And the most important thing, I think, is the youth. These populations in emerging markets are younger. I think the average age for emerging-market countries is in the 20s, for developed countries in the 40s. Now it's true, at this stage, these 40-year old people, 50-year old people are rich so they spend more. But the emerging countries, young people are coming up, getting married, having houses, buying furniture. They are going to become big consumers going forward.

马克·莫比乌斯:今后五年或十年,你会看到新兴市场的消费市场快速增长,甚至超过现在的欧洲或美国。因为中国和印度的人口都超过十亿,收入水平也在不断提升。并且最重要的因素是年轻。新兴市场人口普遍较为年轻,他们的平均年龄都在二十多岁,而发达国家的已经超过四十岁了。的确,在这个时期,四五十多岁的人很富有,消费能力也强。但是在新兴市场,年轻人正在迎头赶上,他们结婚、买房、置办家具。他们将成为未来消费群体的中流砥柱。

I think emerging markets may be redefined to be called high-growth countries because that's really what we're looking at.

我认为新兴市场也许可以换个名字,“高增长市场”,因为这就是现状。

Keith Damsell: Looking back on that 30-40 years, following emerging markets closely, there's so many major events, many, many trends—the Berlin wall, the Asian Financial Crisis, 9/11 and continued conflict in the Middle East. What do you see as the biggest trends that have shaped that growth within the emerging markets that you've benefited from or the companies you've invested in have benefited from?

基思·丹塞尔:回首过去三四十年,发生了许多与新兴市场密切相关的大事,该市场也经历了一些大的变化——柏林墙、亚洲金融危机、911事件和中东国家持续动乱。您认为造就新兴市场发展且您或您所投企业从中受益匪浅的变化有哪些?

Mark Mobius: A big trend has been the move towards a market economy. Because, as I mentioned, economists began to wake up to the reality that if a country is going to grow, the resources in that economy have to be allocated by the market, not by the government. So that's been the sea change that's created a whole surge of growth in these countries. Now, what does that mean? In order to have a market economy, you've got to have markets—stock markets, bond markets. In order to have stock and bond markets, you have to have companies that borrow and also that list, sell their shares. So you've had an incredible trend towards privatization of state-owned enterprises.

马克·莫比乌斯:一个大的变化是向市场经济转型。因为,正如我前面提到,经济学家们开始意识到,如果一个国家要进步,那么其资源必须由市场来分配,而不是由政府分配。这个巨大的转变也正是这些国家出现爆发式增长的原因。那么,这又意味着什么?为了实现市场经济,必须要有市场——股票市场、债券市场。推动股票和债券市场,必须要有需要融资的企业、上市并出售其股份的企业。所以这也就意味着会有一大批国有企业私有化。

That's been a huge, huge change. If you look at the big companies in emerging markets, where the big ones are—former state-owned companies, even companies that are still majority controlled by the state, but are listed.

这是一个巨大的改变。看看新兴市场的大企业,基本上以前都是国有企业,或者是仍由国家控股的企业,但都已经上市了。

In China, big companies are state owned, state controlled, state companies that have been privatized. So that is the big, big transition.

在中国,大企业多数都是国有、国家控股和已经私有化的国企。这是很大的转型。

Keith Damsell: You mentioned China, and so the state has a very active role, of course, in business. Do you think we'll continue to see less government interference and market influences and factors growing within those parts of the world? I guess what I'm getting at is what is the role of the state, you think, going forward?

基思·丹塞尔:您提到了中国,中国政府在市场方面扮演了很积极的角色。您认为,在这些新兴市场国家,是否政府干预会越来越少,市场影响和市场因素会愈发重要?我想问,未来政府将扮演怎样的角色?

Mark Mobius: That's a good question because this is a big battle going on, even now. There has been, over the years, a tremendous resistance to the market economy idea. And there's still a great belief, even in the US and Canada, that the government, the central bank, can solve problems. They can make [the] economy grow by lowering rates, interest rates, raising interest rates and manipulating the currency and so forth. Of course, the fact is that they cannot do that. You can't grow unless you increase productivity. The way to increase productivity is by having a market economy. This is the reality. But there's still a lot of resistance to that idea and you find that in emerging markets as well. A lot of countries resist privatization of state-owned enterprises because there are thousands of workers that could be put out of work because in privatization, efficiencies come in and people are let go, etc. A lot of the political elite have built their careers on handing out jobs to people in state-owned enterprises.

马克·莫比乌斯:这是一个很好的问题,因为即使是现在,也还有很大的一场仗要打。这么多年来,人们都很抵触市场经济这个理念。甚至在美国和加拿大,都有很多人相信政府和央行可以解决一切问题。他们可以通过利率和货币调控等方法带动经济增长。当然了,事实上他们是做不到的。提升生产力是促进发展的唯一方式,而提升生产力的方式就是依靠市场经济。这就是现实。但很多人都抵触这种想法,新兴市场也同样如此。许多国家不愿意国有企业私有化,因为成千上万的工人可能因为私有化、生产效率提高而面临下岗。很多政界人士的政绩也是基于通过国有企业创造就业而实现的。

So that battle is still raging around the world. It's really a big issue, and it's not completely clear what the outcome will be going forward.

所以这是一场全球范围的硬仗。这是个大问题,并且未来结果会怎样还不明朗。

Keith Damsell: As an investor in China specifically though, is that challenging when you've got… “Okay, well our majority shareholder is the guys in Beijing. Well, I guess we're going to do what they want to do.” How do you assess that kind of a risk?

基思·丹塞尔:作为中国市场的投资人,碰到这种问题会不会很棘手……“嗯,我们的控股股东是北京方面。我想我们得满足他们的要求。”您如何评估这种风险呢?

Mark Mobius: There's no question. I mean, we have to watch that very carefully in not only China, but other countries because if the state is the majority controller, then they're going to do according to what the party decides. The good news is that China's moved more and more towards pushing these companies away from the state and letting them stand on their own. And they're saying to these companies, “Look, we want you to pay us dividends and we'll give you some facilities, some policy measures we'll ask you to undertake. But at the end of the day, you've got to make profits.”

马克·莫比乌斯:毫无疑问。我是说,这不仅是在中国,在其他国家也是如此。如果政府是控股方,我们都要很小心,这些企业会跟着执政党的指令走。好消息是,中国政府现在正放手这些企业,希望他们更加独立。政府向这些企业表态,“我们希望你们给予分红,会给你们提供设备,会要求你们支持某些政策举措 。但归根结底,你们还是要盈利。”

And they are now introducing corporate governance standards in these companies, which is quite gratifying because I think they realize, at the end of day, look if you're going to have a market economy, you've got to spin off these companies.

他们现在正为这些企业引入企业管理标准,这非常令人欣喜。他们终于意识到,要发展市场经济,必须要让这些企业独立起来。

Keith Damsell:  So that concludes our in-studio interview with Mark. He had to rush off to an investors' meeting, but we will be reaching out to Mark via telephone to have him address a number of questions that we have received via social media from investors around the world.

基思·丹塞尔:以上就是我和马克博士的面对面访谈。他必须赶去参加一个投资人会议,但我们将通过电话形式继续访问马克博士,请他回答我们从社交媒体上向全世界投资者征集的一些问题。

As promised, we have Mark on the phone now to answer some questions we've received from around the world that have come into Franklin Templeton via social media. So Mark, welcome. I have to ask you, where are you calling in from?

正如我们之前所承诺的,现在马克博士正在线上,准备回答全球各地投资者通过社交媒体向富兰克林邓普顿提出的问题。马克,您好。请问,您是从哪里打来的电话呢?

Mark Mobius: I'm now at Mackinac Island in Michigan [in the United States]. It's an island where there is no connection by bridge, so we had to take a boat here. It's very, very unusual because it's the only island that I've been on where there are no other automobiles—no motorized transport in any direction. Everybody has to get around by a horse-and-buggy and by bicycle. So, I'm only here for a few days more and then I have to go back to Hong Kong, so it's quite an experience.

马克·莫比乌斯:我正在(美国)密歇根州的麦基诺岛上。这个岛屿还没有通路桥,所以我们只能坐船过来。这是个非常特别的地方,是我到过唯一一个没有汽车的小岛,没有任何一种机动交通工具。大家都是靠马车和自行车出行。我会在这里待几天,然后回香港,这次体验很特别。

Keith Damsell: Mark, let's start with a question from Alexander M. in Ottawa, here in Canada, who asked on LinkedIn:

基思·丹塞尔:马克,第一个问题来自加拿大渥太华的Alexander M.,他通过领英提问:

Mark, I would love to know how it feels to be able to live free of borders and walking out of the house in a new place all the time. Does it get old and do you ever wish for stability and a simpler lifestyle? Or do you enjoy it still?

马克博士,我想知道过着享受无国界、永远处于新奇环境的生活是一种怎样的感受?会厌倦吗?您是否渴望过更稳定、更简单的生活?或者您还是享受现状?

Mark Mobius: First of all, thanks for that nice question. But you know, going from one border to the next, cutting through one border to the next, is not easy. You have to have your passport in order. Very often you have to have a visa. I have to carry two passports because my passports get filled up with visas and very often when I'm going from one place to another, I need to get a new visa for the next place I'm going to go. So, I send one passport off to the next embassy or next consulate to get a visa. So you know, going from one place to another is not without its paperwork and some hassle, but I never get tired of going into new places, experiencing new things, and also circling back on places I've already been. I mean, I've been to Rio de Janeiro many times. Buenos Aires, Argentina, Santiago, Peru, Mexico City in Mexico of course. Recently, I was in Panama, then South Africa and all of the countries in Africa like Ivory Coast, and you can imagine you know just the names give you some inkling of the incredible variety and change that's taking place in these countries. And what impresses me the most is how things are changing, for the most part for the better with the age of the Internet, with smartphones. People are learning more and more about what's happening and are able to make decisions much more quickly and effectively. And, generally speaking, it's very, very exciting. I never tire of travel.

马克·莫比乌斯:首先,感谢你提出的这个问题。你知道,出国、跨越国界并不简单。你要准备好护照,通常来说还要有签证。我得带着两本护照,上面满是各国签证。很多时候,当我要去下一个地方,需要获得一个新的签证。我会把其中一本护照寄给目的地大使馆或领事馆申领签证。所以,出国也得做很多文书工作,很麻烦,但对于到访新的地方、体验新鲜事物或是重回我曾经去过的地方,我从未感到厌倦。好比,我曾经去过很多次里约日内卢,还有阿根廷的布宜诺斯艾利斯、、圣地亚哥、秘鲁,当然还有墨西哥的首都墨西哥城。我最近去了巴拿马、南非和其他非洲各国,比如科特迪瓦,仅仅通过名字,你就可以想象到这些国家丰富多彩,日新月异。让我印象最为深刻的就是这些国家所发生的变化,在互联网时代,有了智能手机,他们的生活大多变的越来越好。人们更多地了解到世界上所发生的事,能够更快、更有效地决策。总的来说,这非常让人兴奋。我从未对旅行感到厌倦。

Keith Damsell: Our next question we received via LinkedIn from Cyprus in the Mediterranean: What is the most difficult situation you've been in while traveling?

基思·丹塞尔:下一个通过领英提出的问题来自于地中海地区的塞浦路斯:您在旅途中遇到最困难的情形是怎样的?

Mark Mobius: Probably the most difficult situation I've been when traveling was when I was in Russia and we were in Siberia. We were visiting companies and got stuck in a snowstorm. We couldn't take off. We were going from the middle of Siberia to Moscow. And we were stuck there in that city and we had appointments waiting for us in Moscow. I mean, there are many instances I can give you, difficulties we had in traveling around the world, but that's probably one of the most difficult because, as you know, the Russian winters in Siberia can be very extreme.

马克·莫比乌斯:我在旅途中遇到最困难的情形应该是在俄罗斯的西伯利亚。当时我们正准备从西伯利亚中部去莫斯科拜访企业,但是被暴风雪困住了,飞机无法起飞。我们被困在了那座城市,但是拜访的客户已经在莫斯科等我们了。这样的例子有很多,我们在旅途中碰到过很多困难,但我刚才说的那一次可能是最窘迫的情形之一,因为你们都知道,西伯利亚的寒冬是多么恐怖。

And I remember in one instance, when we were traveling to Russia, as we were landing, the windshield of the plane broke. It didn't of course break through completely, but it crackled, you know, how now the windshields can crackle but hold their strength. And that was pretty frightening at first, but we worked that out and then we were okay. So I would tell you those are the most difficult. But at same time, I can't speak badly of Russia because some of the most wonderful experiences I had were in Russia, in places like St. Petersburg and Moscow and so forth.

我记得有一次在去俄罗斯的路上,飞机降落时挡风玻璃碎了。当然没有完全碎掉,但是裂开了,现在的挡风玻璃也有可能裂开,但是可以继续承压。一开始真的很吓人,但我们最终还是解决了这个问题,安全着陆了。这些都是我们遇到的困难。但同时,我不能一味批评俄罗斯,因为我在俄罗斯的圣彼得堡、莫斯科等地有很多最美好的回忆。

Keith Damsell: I have to ask a follow up question, so how did you get out of that snowstorm in Siberia? What happened?

基思·丹塞尔:我还想追问一下,您是如何逃离西伯利亚那场暴风雪的?发生了什么?

Mark Mobius: We just had to wait it out. We had to wait until this snowstorm died down and then we could take off, but we were still taking off in snow. And by the way, you know when you're in a situation like that, they have to be very careful that the ice does not form on the wings. So before we took off, they had to spray the plane, and particularly on the wings, to prevent the ice from forming on the wings. So the first time it happened it was kind of frightening.

马克·莫比乌斯:我们所做的就是等待。我们一直等到暴风雪停下来,然后起飞,不过当时起飞的时候还在下雪。顺便说一下,在那样的情况下,机务人员必须非常小心,以防机翼结冰。所以在起飞之前,他们不得不喷撒整个飞机,尤其是机翼部分,以防结冰。第一次看到这样的情形真的很吓人。

Keith Damsell: We received a question from Waldemaher in Washington, D.C., who asks, “What was your most memorable or unique insight gained from a travel experience?”

基思·丹塞尔:我们收到来自华盛顿特区Waldemaher的提问:“您从旅途中获得的最难忘或最独特的感悟是什么?”

Mark Mobius: The most important insights I think are gained from talking to people and observing how they are doing their business because we put a lot of emphasis on the people behind the business, what they're doing and how they are working. And one of the great insights I had was when I was in Vietnam. We had been thinking of investing in a PVC pipe manufacturer. And we went to visit the factory with the managing director and part owner of the company, and I was really very impressed by the way he talked to the workers and how they genuinely liked him. They had a sort of fellowship together. That impressed me, and I realized that this company would be a very good company to invest in because you could tell that the workers were happy. They had a very good relationship with the owner and the managing director and that is a recipe for success in my view.

马克·莫比乌斯:最重要的感悟都是来自人与人的交流,观察他们如何做事,因为我们很重视业务背后的人,他们在做什么、怎么做。我在越南时曾有一次感触很深。当时我们考虑投资一家PVC管道制造商。我们与该公司的执行董事兼股东去实地考察工厂,我看到他与工人说话的方式,以及工人发自内心对他的喜爱,这给我留下了深刻的印象。他们之间更像是伙伴关系。这让我印象深刻,我意识到这会是一个很好的投资标的,因为你看到工人们都很快乐。他们和这位股东兼执行董事关系很好,这在我看来就是成功的秘诀。

Keith Damsell: We also received a question from LinkedIn from Boston:

基思·丹塞尔:我们在领英上还收到了一个来自波士顿的提问:

What is the biggest surprise, positive or negative, that you have encountered during your travels?

您在旅途中遇到过最让您感到意外的事件是什么呢,无论正面还是负面的?

Mark Mobius: In Brazil, we had invested many years ago into a department store. From what we could see, everything was in order. We had been visiting the company every year. We sat down with the chief accountant—the man who handled all the finances of the company— and all of a sudden one year the company got into trouble and it was discovered that the major shareholders had stolen some of the assets and made off with some of the assets. And we went to the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] of Brazil, to, you know, find out what was happening and what they were doing about this.

马克·莫比乌斯:我们很多年前在巴西投资过一家百货商店。据我们亲眼所见,一切都很有序。我们每年都会拜访那家公司。我们会和负责整个公司财务的总会计师开会,而某一年,公司突然遇到了麻烦,发现大股东窃取了部分资产并逃跑了。我们到巴西证券交易委员会去调查究竟发生了什么并了解他们所采取的措施。

And it was about a year gone. We had been doing all this investigation, all this letter writing, contacts etc., etc. So then, finally, we went to visit the securities commission in Rio, and we asked for the director of the security commission. And the secretary said, “Okay.”  And he fetched this director and who was it? It was the same accountant who had been the accountant of this department store. So he was now a member of the securities commission who is involved in the investigation. So this is one of the biggest shocks that we ever had.

就这样一年过去了。我们一直在开展调查、写信、沟通等等。最后,我们去里约的证券交易委员会并要求与主管见面。他的秘书说,“好的”。于是他请来了这位主管,你们猜猜他是谁?就是那家百货公司的总会计师,他也作为证券交易委员会的成员参与了调查。这是我们感到最震惊的事之一。

Thankfully, now, Brazil is going through a big revolution in terms of corruption investigations and getting their house in order in terms of trying to stop the corruption that has been going on in the country. So there has been improvement, but that was one of the big shocks of our life.

谢天谢地,现在巴西正就反腐调查进行一轮大的改革,以处理好内部问题,扫除国内盛行的腐败问题。现在已经有所改善了,不过那次事件是我们这辈子经历过最令人震惊的事情之一。

Keith Damsell: A follow up question to that, perhaps one of the less-auspicious investments, maybe, that  the firm made, but can you talk about, perhaps, a great success of an individual company you've worked with. Perhaps that you've seen grow over time from very small beginnings to a major organization?

基思·丹塞尔:这可能是公司不那么幸运的一笔投资,再追问一句,您是否能谈谈,您曾共事过的企业中是否有非常成功的案例?可能是某个您看着它从很小起步,最后发展成很大规模的企业?

Mark Mobius: We were looking at a company involved in making gears. They were doing gears for all kinds of equipment. I visited the factory, and I noticed that they had a lot of very good automated equipment, a lot of robots, in China. This is near Shanghai. And I learned that they were going to be making gears for wind power. And I thought to myself, “Gee, this sounds like a good growth industry.” So, we invested. This was one of our private equity investments and then we decided to take it to the market and we listed that company in Hong Kong, and we made, I think, was about five times our money.  You know an incredible return on the investment simply because people began to recognize that this company was doing quality work, and there would be a worldwide demand for their products. That's probably one of the best investments we've made.

马克·莫比乌斯:我们曾投资过一个做齿轮的企业,他们为各种设备做齿轮。我去过他们的中国工厂,注意到他们有很多很好的自动化设备、机器人。工厂离上海很近。当时了解到他们准备为风电设备做齿轮。那时我就想,“这听起来会是个成长性不错的行业。”所以我们就投资了。这是我们私募投资的一个项目,后来我们决定把它推上市,那个企业随后在香港成功上市,我印象中回报是投资额的五倍左右。一次投资能获得不菲的回报,是因为人们开始意识到这家企业产品质量好,然后就会有世界各地源源不断的订单。这也许是我们做过的最佳投资之一。

Keith Damsell: I'm curious how you can answer this question we received from Suresh in India who sent this through on Twitter:  “Mark if you look back on your life, what are your biggest regrets?”

基思·丹塞尔:我很好奇您将如何回答推特上来自印度的Suresh提的这个问题:“马克博士,如果您回顾一生,最大的遗憾是什么?”

Mark Mobius: I don't have any regrets, but I would say: having not started earlier. I wish I had started in the investment arena earlier than that because I spent many years studying. Of course, it now stood me in good stead, but I would say that's the biggest regret. I wish I had started earlier on this incredible career that I now have.

马克·莫比乌斯:我没有什么遗憾,但我可能会说:我应该更早开始。我花了很多年学习,真希望自己是更早涉足投资领域。当然了,对我来说学习也很受用,但我可能会说这是最大的遗憾了。我应该更早从事这项了不起的事业。

Keith Damsell: Mark, this is a common question you get—always people interested to find out about the comic book that was published under your name. Can you talk a little bit about the comic book and how it how it came about?

基思·丹塞尔:马克博士,很多人都问到有关于您的这本漫画书,大家对这本书很感兴趣。您能谈谈这本漫画书吗?它的灵感来自哪里?

Mark Mobius: Yeah. I was approached by a Japanese comic book producer who had given me a ring [phone call] on this subject a few times. I thought they were joking, but then they sent me one of the comic books they did about [investor] George Soros and I said, “Well, these guys have to be serious.”

马克·莫比乌斯:好的。曾经有一家日本漫画书商找到我,就这件事给我打过很多电话。我当时以为他们在开玩笑,但后来他们给我寄了一本关于乔治·索罗斯(投资者)的书,这时我想,“看来他们是认真的。”

So when they asked me if, you know, I would cooperate in telling my life story for the comic book I said, “fine.” And the cartoonist, now, started to do some intensive research. I was amazed how much detail he gathered.  He probably gathered more information about me than I knew about myself, and he did this comic book in Japanese. It was, you know in Japan they're called “Manga” and there are adu/lt comics as well as children's comics. In fact, I think adu/lt comics are probably bigger in Japan than children's comics. But, they published and then, of course, it was translated into English, into German, into Arabic, into a number of other languages. So that's the way it came about. It's quite an exciting story.

所以他们问我是否愿意合作,用漫画书的形式介绍我的生平时,我便同意了。那位漫画家开始做一些深度研究,我对他所收集到的信息的全面程度感到吃惊。他收集到了很多信息,甚至比我对自己的了解还要更深入,他以日文出版了这本漫画书。在日本,他们把漫画叫做“Manga”,除了儿童漫画以外也有成人漫画。事实上,我认为成人漫画在日本的市场比儿童漫画还大。后来这本书也被翻译成了英语、德语、阿拉伯语和其他语种。这就是这本书的来历,挺令人激动的。

Keith Damsell: I understand another comic book from somebody on a different subject matter and crew you're working with on compound interest is in the works. Can you talk a little bit about that project?

基思·丹塞尔:我知道您和另外一个团队也在做一本其他主题的漫画书,是关于复利的介绍。您可以谈谈这个项目吗?

Mark Mobius: I realized there is tremendous need for financial education in the US and other parts of the world.  Most people are not really interested in the financial world. It's boring for many people. So I thought, well why don't we make it interesting and educational at the same time? So I decided that I'd get together with a group to do a comic—just for the fun of it. It's about what is compound interest, but it's done in a storybook type of setting. And it's interesting because one of my young nephews is now reading it, and I know he was very interested. I'd like to get his comments when he's finished.

马克·莫比乌斯:我意识到美国和世界上其他的地方都极其需要金融教育。大多数人对金融都不感兴趣,很多人都觉得这很无聊。所以我就想,为什么我们不能使金融变得有趣又有教育意义呢?所以我当时决定我要和 一个团队合作出版一本漫画书——出于好玩的目的。这本书是有关复利的介绍,但是是以故事书的形式开展的。这本书很有趣,因为我的一个小侄子正在看这本书,我看出来他很感兴趣。等他看完我会问问他的意见。

Keith Damsell: Well, thank you very much, Mark, for making the time. It's always a pleasure to talk to you and I look forward to speaking again soon.

基思·丹塞尔: 马克博士,感谢您此次参与访谈。跟您聊得非常愉快,希望很快能有机会再与您畅聊。

Mark Mobius:  Thank you, it's a pleasure.

马克·莫比乌斯:谢谢,我也聊得很开心。

Host/Richard Banks: Unfortunately, we've reached the end of this episode. But before we go, we'd like to leave you with something inspirational. Earlier, we asked Mark if he had any words of wisdom, any advice for someone trying to build their career.

主持人/理查德·班克斯(Richard Banks):非常遗憾,我们这期节目已接近尾声。在节目结束前,我们希望和您分享一些鼓舞人心的话语。前面我们问马克博士是否有一些箴言与我们分享,为希望在事业上做出一番成就的人提供一些建议。

Mark Mobius: I think the key to anything is that you got to love what you're doing. I mean, if you're unhappy, you're not really interested in what you're doing—don't do it. Get out and do something else. So you've got to love what you're doing. That's number one. Forget about the money. That will come. The main thing is to do what you really enjoy.

马克·莫比乌斯:我认为,一切的核心在于热爱。我是指,如果你感到不快乐,你对你所做之事不感兴趣,不要再做了。脱身出来,去尝试其他事情。必须热爱你所做的事情。这是最重要的。不要想着赚钱。面包会有的。关键在于做你热爱之事。

The second thing is keep an open mind. Don't make any conclusions until you have all the facts. Try to learn as much as you can and stay humble. Don't try to draw conclusions based on your own opinions or your own biases. Be ready to accept new ideas. It's very, very important. I'll never forget, I was friendly with a former MIT guy who had started a consulting company doing packaging consulting, and he had on his desk a little metal plaque. He said there's no limit for how far a man can go, as long as he doesn't mind who gets the credit. I thought that was great because that really summarizes, you know, his success because he was quite a successful consultant.

第二点就是要保持开放的心态。在没有了解全部事实之前,千万不要下结论。尽一切可能去学习,保持谦卑姿态。不要根据个人意见或偏见作出结论。时刻准备好接受新的理念。这一点非常重要。 我永远不会忘记,我一个毕业于麻省理工的朋友曾创业做包装咨询,他办公桌上放了一个小金属牌匾。他说,只要不在意荣归何处,人的成就是无极限的。我认为这一点很了不起,这正完美总结了他的成功,因为他就是一个出色的咨询顾问。

Host/Richard Banks:That's it for now. If you've enjoyed Talking Markets with Franklin Templeton, you can hear more from us by subscribing on iTunes, GooglePlay, or just about any other major podcast provider.

主持人/理查德·班克斯:我们的节目到此结束了。如果您喜欢富兰克林邓普顿投资的Talking Markets,您可以通过iTunes、GooglePlay或其他任何主流播客频道订阅我们的节目,获得更多信息。

See you next time when we uncover more insights from our on-the-ground investment professionals. Until then, goodbye.

下期我们将继续向一线投资专家请教更多独到见解,再见。

Mark Mobius's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

马克博士的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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