新兴市场二月回顾:恢复力
Emerging Markets Recap: Resilient
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2019-12-13 08:23
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Volatility returned to global markets in February, but by and large, emerging markets proved resilient. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity Chief Investment Officer Manraj Sekhon and Director of Portfolio Management Chetan Sehgal present an overview of emerging-market developments in February, including some events, milestones and data points to offer perspective.

全球市场二月再经波澜,但总的来说,新兴市场更具抗压能力。邓普顿新兴市场团队首席投资官曼拉杰·塞克宏和投资组合管理总监切坦·塞加尔概述了新兴市场二月发展境况,包括市场大事记、里程碑和数据点,并就此分享见解。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Polish

这篇文章还提供中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、波兰文版

Three Things We're Thinking about Today

三点思考

  1. While increased volatility in global markets surprised and worried investors, we must put the current volatility into context. Many asset classes, including emerging markets, have had an extended period of low volatility. When major corrections in developed stock markets occur, emerging markets also take the heat, often with even greater declines. This is because many global investors view emerging markets as higher-risk investments and are quick to sell them first, regardless of underlying economic fundamentals in the individual countries. Emerging markets have, however, proved more resilient during this latest market shock.͏
  2. China announced plans to eliminate term limits to the Chinese presidency, suggesting President Xi Jinping could seek to serve beyond the end of his second term in 2022. This development could be generally positive over the short-to-medium term as top leadership will remain stable and major government policies could be more consistent. President Xi's goals are ambitious and many of his initiatives require time to be completed. However, structurally, this is a significant change from the “collective leadership” of the Chinese Communist Party that was introduced by former leader Deng Xiaoping, and it could raise the risk of policy errors in the absence of checks and balances. This is something that will need to be closely watched over the longer term.
  3. International ratings agency Standard & Poor's raised Russia's sovereign credit rating to investment grade, while Fitch reaffirmed the country's investment-grade rating with a positive outlook, raising the possibility of fund flows and validating the country's efforts to stimulate economic growth. After two consecutive years of contraction in previous two years, the Russian economy returned to growth this year, supported by consumer demand and a rebound in commodity prices. The Russian market remains one of the most lowly rated emerging markets, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8 times as of end-February. We maintain a positive view on the market, focusing on companies in the information technology, financials, energy and materials sectors.

1.全球市场的波动加剧令投资者感到意外和担忧,但我们必须结合环境因素看待此次波动。许多资产类别包括新兴市场,都经历了很长的低波幅期。当已发展股市出现大幅修正,新兴市场也会受影响,通常跌幅甚至更大。这是因为许多全球投资者将新兴市场视为高风险投资,无论各个新兴国家的经济基本面如何,都会选择迅速抛售脱手。然而,新兴市场在最近的市场冲击中表现出更强的抗压能力。

2.中国政府宣布取消国家主席任期限制制度,这预示着习近平主席可能在二零二二年第二任期结束后寻求连任。整体来说,这一改革会在短期到中期产生正面影响,因为最高领导层将保持稳定,国家的重大政策会更加协调一致。习主席有着非常宏远的目标,他提出的多项倡议都需要很长时间方可实现。然而,从结构上讲,这不同于前领导人邓小平提出的中国共产党“集体领导”机制。我们后续需长期密切关注此事。

3.国际评级机构标准普尔将俄罗斯的主/权信用评级提高至投资级,惠誉亦看好该国前景而重申了其投资评级,从而提高了资金流动的可能性,并认可该国刺激经济增长的努力。经过过去连续两年收缩后,俄罗斯经济在今年基于消费者需求和商品价格回升驱动而恢复增长。俄罗斯市场仍然是评级最低的新兴市场之一,截至二月底,交易市盈率为8倍。我们仍看好该市场,重点关注信息技术、金融、能源和材料板块股票。

Outlook

展望

While volatility has heightened recently, we believe that emerging-market (EM) fundamentals remain sound. We believe EM equities have reached an inflection point in regard to earnings and appear to be providing us with valuation opportunities we do not generally see in most developed markets. Our view is that earnings should continue to recover and prompt valuations to return to a more normalized level. Discounted valuations are one of several trends that underpin the upside potential we see in emerging markets today. Other positive trends include undervalued EM currencies and lower EM debt levels.

虽然近期波幅升高,但我们认为新兴市场(EM)的基本面依然稳健。我们认为新兴市场股票已达到盈利拐点,可能提供大多数已发展市场并不常见的估值机会。同时盈利表现会继续恢复,使估值回到更加正常化的水平。目前,低估值是支持新兴市场上升潜力的几大趋势之一。其他积极趋势包括估值偏低的新兴市场货币和较低的新兴市场债务水平。

When making a case for emerging markets in the year ahead, we believe foreign reserves should not be underestimated. Previous financial crises have been exacerbated by insufficient foreign reserves and the inability to manage domestic savings. However, we believe emerging markets are in a much stronger position today, with their foreign reserves now exceeding those of their developed-market peers.

对于未来一年的新兴市场,我们认为不应低估外汇储备。由于缺乏足够的外汇储备和国内储蓄管理能力,前一次金融危机不断恶化。然而,随着新兴市场外汇储备已超已发展市场,我们相信新兴市场的地位将更为稳健。

Meanwhile, emerging markets have doubled their share of global gross domestic product (GDP) over the past 30 years and now amount to 60% of global GDP growth.1

同时,过去三十年内,新兴市场对全球各国国内生产总值(GDP)的贡献翻倍,目前对全球 GDP 增长的贡献比例为60%。[1]

Further, 2018 EM GDP growth is expected at double the pace of developed markets in general—the International Monetary Fund is estimating 4.9% GDP growth for emerging markets versus 2.3% in developed markets during the year.2

此外,总体而言,新兴市场二零一八年 GDP 的增长预期是发达市场的两倍,国际货币基金组织预测年内新兴市场 GDP 增长率为 4.9%,而发达市场为 2.3%。[2]

Emerging Markets Key Trends and Developments

新兴市场重大趋势及发展

Global markets experienced a selloff in February as worries of resurgent US inflation outweighed initial optimism about an improving world economy. Volatility spiked as investors assessed the likelihood of major central banks stepping up the pace of monetary policy tightening. Emerging markets recorded a sharp but brief correction before rebounding in the latter part of the month to recover some of the losses. As a group, emerging markets finished slightly behind their developed-market counterparts in February. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 4.6%, compared with a 4.1% correction in the MSCI World Index, both in US dollars.3 Higher risk aversion, lower oil prices and weaker EM currencies weighed on EM equities.

由于对全球经济改善的乐观情绪不敌美国通胀再度攀升,触发市场忧虑,全球市场在二月经历了一轮大抛售。投资者评估认为主要央行可能加快收紧货币政策后,市场波动加剧。新兴市场录得大幅修正但过于短暂,在月底出现回调,收复部分损失。新兴市场整体的二月收盘略微落后于发达市场。MSCI 新兴市场指数下跌4.6%,而 MSCI 全球市场指数的修正率为4.1%,两者均以美元计算。[3]风险厌恶情绪较高、油价较低以及较弱的新兴市场货币等因素影响了新兴市场股市。

The Most Important Moves in Emerging Markets in February

新兴市场二月大事记

In Asia, most markets lost ground amid the global stock market rout. India, China and South Korea posted the largest declines. India was particularly hampered by the government's reintroduction of a long-term capital gains tax on equities. A move by three local stock exchanges to end licensing deals with their foreign counterparts and rein in offshore derivatives also hurt sentiment. In China, slower-than-expected growth in manufacturing activity in February raised caution around the country's economic momentum. Conversely, Thailand finished higher. The country's exports surged past forecasts in January to notch their fastest rate of growth in more than five years, underpinning the government's robust economic outlook for the year.

亚洲大多市场都在全球股市震荡中失守。印度、中国和韩国跌幅最大。印度政府重新推出股票长期资本利得税,令股市受到重创。三大本土证券交易所宣布停止向海外交易所发放执照,并控制离岸衍生品,此举伤害了投资者情绪。中国方面,制造业二月的增速逊于预期,引发投资者对中国经济发展势头的质疑。相反泰国收盘上涨。该国一月出口额超出过往预测,录得五年多以来最快增幅,为政府今年的强劲经济展望提供了支持。

Latin American markets corrected over the month, but as a group they performed better than their EM counterparts. Brazil and Peru were among the leading regional performers, while Colombia and Mexico lagged. Depreciation in the real accounted for the decline in the Brazilian market as lower-than-expected inflation, strong economic activity and a reduction in the benchmark interest rate to a record-low level provided investors with reasons to maintain a positive view and overlook disappointing fourth-quarter GDP growth data. In Mexico, lower manufacturing and consumer confidence data coupled with monetary policy tightening weighed on equity prices. A decline in oil prices impacted stock prices in Colombia, despite a strengthening peso.

拉丁美洲市场在本月出现修正,但整体而言,其表现优于其它新兴市场。巴西和秘鲁是区域内表现领先者,而哥伦比亚和墨西哥落后。巴西雷亚尔贬值致使其市场下跌,但通胀低于预期、经济活动强劲和基准利率降至历史新低,均让投资者有理由保持乐观,并忽略第四季度GDP增长数据下滑。墨西哥方面,制造业和消费者信心数据较低加上货币政策紧缩对股价造成了压力。尽管比索走强,石油价格下跌仍影响了哥伦比亚的股票价格。

Central and Eastern European markets were among the worst EM performers with Poland, Hungary and Greece especially weak. The Turkish market also declined but outperformed its EM peers, as attractive valuations and earnings growth supported investor confidence. Russia bucked the global trend, ending February with a gain following a recovery in equity prices in the latter part of the month, driven by higher earnings growth prospects and undemanding valuations.

中欧和东欧在新兴市场中表现最差,波兰、匈牙利和希腊表现尤其疲软。土耳其市场也有所下滑,但表现仍优于其它新兴市场,因为具吸引力的估值和盈利增长增加了投资者信心。俄罗斯的表现不同于全球趋势,受盈利增长展望高企以及估值较低驱动,本月后期股价回升,二月以高位收盘。

South African and Egyptian equities edged down in February but fared better than their EM peers. Investors cheered the swearing-in of African National Congress (ANC) leader Cyril Ramaphosa as South Africa's new president following the resignation of Jacob Zuma. A cabinet reshuffle that brought back Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister and Pravin Gordhan as public enterprises minister was also well-received. The Central Bank of Egypt adopted an easing monetary policy in February, with a larger-than-expected 100 basis-point interest-rate cut, thus providing the market with the hope of accelerating GDP growth with decreasing inflationary pressures.

南非和埃及股市二月小幅下跌,但表现优于其它新兴市场。继雅各布·祖玛辞职后,非洲国民大会(ANC)领袖 西里尔·拉马弗萨宣誓就任南非总统,投资者情绪高涨。恩兰赫拉·内妮复职担任财政部长,普拉文·高登出任公共企业部长,此次内阁改组也广受好评。埃及中央银行于二月通过了一项宽松的货币政策,降息100个基点,幅度超过预期,让市场看到了 GDP 加速增长和通胀压力减轻的前景。

In February, frontier markets outperformed their EM counterparts, driven by fund inflows and improving earnings growth. Kazakhstan, Kenya and Kuwait were among the top frontier-market performers, recording positive returns. In contrast, Argentina was among the weakest, impacted by profit-taking after strong performance this year, concerns surrounding wage negotiations and inflation, as well as plans to scale back and delay labor reforms.

受基金流入和盈利增长改善驱动,二月前缘市场表现优于新兴市场。哈萨克斯坦、肯尼亚和科威特在前缘市场中表现最佳,录得正回报。相比之下,阿根廷表现最为疲软,主要因为受到本年度强劲表现之后的利润回吐、对工资谈判和通胀的担忧,以及削减和推迟劳动改革计划的影响。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: International Monetary Fund, “GDP based on PPP, share of the World,” data as of October 2019.

[1]资料来源:国际货币基金组织,“基于购买力平价(PPP)的国内生产总值(GDP),全球占比”,数据截至二零一九年十月。

2. Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[2]资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》,二零一九年一月更新版。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会得到实现。

3. The MSCI Emerging Markets index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed-market countries. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[3] MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。MSCI 全球市场指数采集了 23 个发达市场国家中的大中型股票代表。MSCI不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不包括手续费、支出或销售费用。过往表现并非未来业绩的保证。

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