朝鲜半岛紧张局势加剧
Tensions Rise on the Korean Peninsula
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2019-12-13 08:39
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还提供中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

The world is watching the Korean peninsula. The situation between North and South Korea has been tense for a long time, but it has been escalating amid increasingly bold rhetoric and threats from the leaders of North Korea and the United States.

全世界都在关注着朝鲜半岛。朝鲜与韩国之间的局势长期处于紧张状态,但由于朝鲜和美国领导人越来越大胆的言辞和威胁,这种紧张局势一直在加剧。

When North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, threatened a missile attack on the island of Guam (a US territory) and launched a missile over Japan, the situation became even more highly charged. North Korea has been developing a nuclear program for more than 30 years, and despite warnings from the United States and others, it has actually accelerated.

当朝鲜领导人金正恩威胁要对关岛(美国领土)进行导弹袭击,并向日本上空发射一枚导弹后,局势变得更加剑拔弩张。朝鲜的核计划发展已超过30年,尽管美国和其他国家屡示警告,但实际上该计划一直在加速发展。

Kim and Trump have been engaging in a Twitter war, with creative name-calling on both sides. And in a show of force, eight US aircraft recently skirted North Korea's coastline, which was the furthest north of the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea that American warplanes had flown since North Korea started testing ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons in the 1990s.

金正恩和特朗普一直在打“推特战”,两边都发出具创意性的谩骂。在最近一场军事演习中,美国八架飞机从朝鲜的海岸线边缘飞过,这是自朝鲜在二十世纪九十年代开始测试弹道导弹和核武器以来,美国战机飞越朝鲜和韩国之间非军事区最北边的一次。

The sanctions against North Korea the United Nations (UN) Security Council unanimously passed at the beginning of August were a big step forward in terms of resolving the situation through diplomatic means. However, there is much “leakage” in the global financial system that could still enable the North Koreans to transfer money around the world, possibly using Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.

就在八月初,联合国安理会一致通过了对朝鲜的制裁,这是向通过外交手段解决这种紧张局势的一大飞跃。然而,在全球金融系统中存在很多“漏洞”,朝鲜依然能够在世界各地转移资金,可能会使用比特币和其他加密数字货币来逃避制裁。

Governments have found it increasingly difficult to implement sanctions on North Korea because of its proximity to China and China's reluctance (at least so far) to implement drastic embargoes. But I think China is key in terms of helping to resolve the situation.

各国政府发现,对朝鲜实施制裁变得越来越困难,原因在于朝鲜临近中国,而中国不愿意(至少迄今为止)实施严格的禁运。但我认为中国是协助解决这一局势的关键所在。

Trade between China and North Korea has been substantial, but China has so far been unwilling to show much displeasure with North Korea's actions. As part of the UN sanctions, China recently announced it would impose an immediate ban on textile imports from North Korea and would limit oil exports starting this year.

中国与朝鲜之间一直有大量的贸易往来,但迄今为止,中国一直不愿意对朝鲜的行为表示过多不满。为了响应联合国的制裁,中国近期宣布将立即禁止从朝鲜进口纺织品,并自今年开始限制对朝鲜出口石油。

The Chinese also announced sales of liquefied natural gas and condensate oil to North Korea would be banned outright. This was after Beijing cut off purchases from North Korea of coal, iron ore and seafood as well as other goods. Since China accounts for about 90% of North Korea's trade, these sanctions could eventually have an impact.

中国还宣布,将彻底禁止向朝鲜出售液化天然气和凝析油。此前,中国政府已中断从朝鲜采购煤炭、铁矿石和海鲜以及其他产品。中国占朝鲜贸易量近90% ,这些制裁最终应会奏效。

Some media reports indicate the Chinese could be reluctant to cut off trade completely for fears a North Korean government collapse could trigger a mass migration into China. Sanctions don't just impact governments, they hurt ordinary citizens. If all the oil exports from China to North Korea stopped, some observers speculate Russia might take over that role.

一些媒体报道指出,中国可能不愿意完全切断与朝鲜的贸易,担忧朝鲜政府的垮台会造成大量移民进入中国。制裁不仅会影响政府,也会伤害普通民众。一些观察家猜测,如果中国完全停止向朝鲜出口石油,那么俄罗斯可能会接替这一角色。

Observations on North Korea

对朝鲜的观察

In a commentary in the Wall Street Journal in this August, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger mentioned that although North Korea had not developed an operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) arsenal, its short- and intermediate-range missiles were already a threat to countries like Vietnam, South Korea and Japan. Those countries could therefore be incentivized to develop their own nuclear weapons, which would mark an ominous turn for Asia and the world. Of most concern to China would be the development of an armed force in Japan capable of offensive action.

今年八月《华尔街日报》的一篇评论中,美国前国务卿基辛格提到,尽管朝鲜尚未研发出可操作的洲际弹道导弹兵工厂,但其短程和中程导弹已经对越南、韩国和日本等国家构成威胁。因此,这些国家可能会被刺激,进而研发自己的核武器,这可能标志着亚洲和世界在朝着不祥的方向转变。中国最关心的将是日本具有攻击性行动能力的武装力量的发展。

Information about North Korea is generally sketchy, but over the years a number of North Korean defectors have arrived in South Korea and have talked about the situation there. While I haven't personally been to North Korea, a doctor I know was recently in Pyongyang and shared some of his observations. A surgical expert, he was asked to perform some very specialized operations and also give instructions to North Korean doctors. The doctors he met there impressed him and seemed to be living well. He said they were quite knowledgeable and had access to foreign journals and internet sites that gave them information about medicine globally.

关于朝鲜方面的情报普遍比较粗略,但多年来,很多脱北者到了韩国并讨论朝鲜的局势。虽然我没有亲自去过朝鲜,但我认识的一位医生最近到过平壤,他分享了一些他观察到的情况。他是一名外科专家,受邀进行一些非常专业的手术,并给朝鲜的医生提供指导。那里的医生给他留下了深刻的印象,而且他们似乎生活的很好。他们学识渊博,可以接触国外学术期刊和互联网网站,从中获得世界各地与医学相关的资料。

The Chinese are able to travel to North Korea on tours, and a Chinese friend of mine relayed his experiences there, too. He's a very perceptive person, and despite efforts to impress him and his group, he saw through that and confirmed most of North Korea was in fact very poor.

中国人可以到朝鲜旅游,我的一位中国朋友也转述了他在那里的经历。他是一个洞察力很强的人, 尽管朝鲜很努力地想要给他和他的团队留下深刻的印象,但都逃不过他的火眼金睛,他确定大多数朝鲜人实际上非常贫穷。

Tourists to North Korea—even Chinese tourists—are held with a tight leash and always arranged in a group with a set itinerary. Each place my friend visited looked impressive, but as soon as the group left, the lights went off. One day he told the tour guide that he was tired and wanted to stay in the hotel, but the guide pleaded with him to come on the tour and he finally relented. He figured that perhaps to save electricity, the hotel's power was turned off after the entire tour left. In the countryside, he noted farming was all manual and quite primitive. Men and women built roads breaking stones by hand to create aggregate.

前往朝鲜的游客(甚至是中国的游客)都被严格控制着,通常被安排在有固定旅程的旅游团中。我朋友去过的每一个地方都看起来令人难忘,但一旦旅游团离开,这个地方也就没有灯光了。有一天他跟导游说他累了,想留在酒店休息,但导游恳求他继续随团旅游,而他最终还是让步了。他猜想也许是为了省电,整个旅游团离开后,酒店的灯就会关掉。在农村,他发现所有耕作都靠人力,相当原始。男人和女人们用人力敲碎石头然后混凝起来铺路。

Journalists from other countries have from time to time been offered a glimpse into life in North Korea, confirming the tightly controlled government tours of Pyongyang. Those visiting recently have reportedly been met with various affirmations (including visible signage) that North Korea was not going to back down on its nuclear ambitions. Children could be seen playing with toy rockets and sculptures of atoms. And, there apparently is all kinds of bomb imagery. Even a bakery had an upright rocket cake on display for foreign visitors to see. The bottom line is that it seems the North Koreans don't want to give up their nuclear capability, even if it is to their peril.

来自其他国家的记者可不时的看到朝鲜的生活,证实了平壤政府确实严格控制着旅行。据报道,最近到访的那些人见到了各种证据(包括显眼的标识),表明朝鲜不会放弃其对核武器的野心。他们看到孩子们玩着火箭和原子雕塑之类的玩具。而且,各种各样的核武器图像随处可见。甚至连面包店都陈列着一个直立的火箭蛋糕供外国游客观看。归根到底,朝鲜似乎不想放弃他们的核力量,即使这让他们陷入危机。

Wanting a better understanding of the sort of psyche in North Korea, I recently picked Adam Johnson's novel, The Orphan Master's Son, which won the Pulitzer Prize for fiction in 2013. Set in North Korea, apparently Johnson's interest in writing the book came from his exploration into the language of propaganda. It paints a captivating portrait of life there. Even though it's fiction, I think the book can offer us a better understanding of what might going on in North Korea, since so much is related to the indoctrination and the 24/7 propaganda that has created a cult around the Kim dynasty.

为了更好地理解朝鲜的这种精神,我最近阅读了亚当·约翰逊的小说《孤儿领袖的儿子》,这部小说在二零一三年获得普利策小说奖。小说以朝鲜为背景,显然约翰逊写这本书的兴趣来自他对宣传语言的探索。这本书生动详细地描述了那里的生活。即使这是虚构的,但是可以让我们更好地理解朝鲜潜在的未来发展,因为这与教化和全天候的宣传密切相关,而这些在金氏王朝时期已形成了一种狂热崇拜。

Although there have been many reports of famine and energy shortages in North Korea, there has been evidence of economic growth there in recent years. Visitors have noticed improvements, at least in the capital Pyongyang. South Korea's central bank does research on North Korea's economy and has estimated the economy grew by almost 4% in 2016, although that is certainly from a very low base. A substantial part of the growth is estimated to have come from weapons manufacturing.

尽管朝鲜有很多关于饥荒和能源短缺的报道,但近年来也有经济增长的证据。游客们已经注意到这些改善,至少在首都平壤能感受到。韩国央行对朝鲜经济进行研究,并估计二零一六年其经济增长约4%,尽管这必定是从极低的基础上实现的增长。据估计,经济增长的绝大部分来自武器制造。

US-South Korea Relations

美韩关系

The relationship between South Korea and the United States has been very strong in view of their history going back to the Korean War in the early 1950s. Of the 150,000 US troops currently in more than 70 countries around the world, 28,500 are estimated to be in Korea.1 The US military presence has declined over the years, so the South Korean government has had to increase its forces in order to ensure adequate defense.

鉴于二十世纪五十年代初朝鲜战争的历史,韩国和美国之间的关系一直非常牢固。据估计,目前在全球70多个国家驻扎的15万名美军中,韩国有28,500名。[1]多年来,美国驻军一直在减少,因此,韩国政府不得不增加兵力,以确保有足够的防御力量。

South Korea does pay  money to the United States to support the American troops based there—more than US$800 million annually since 2014 alone.2 Besides direct cost sharing, Korea spends a significant amount on weapons purchases from the United States. From 2014 to 2016, South Korea purchased more than US$1 billion worth of US weapons.3 South Korea is also spending billions more for new construction and relocation of older US bases.

韩国确实向美国提供资金来支持美国在韩国的驻军,仅自二零一四年以来每年就超过8亿美元。[2]除了直接成本分摊外,韩国在购买美国武器方面也花费了大量资金。二零一四年至二零一六年期间,韩国购买价值超过10亿美元的美国武器。[3]韩国还花费数十亿搬迁和扩建美军基地。

Besides the military aspect, the trade relationship between the United States and South Korea also bears watching. The new Trump administration has called for fairer trade between the two countries. US officials have stated that when South Korea's currency appreciates or depreciates too much at a certain point in time, it disturbs the market and therefore hurts American companies.

除了军事方面,美韩之间的贸易关系也值得关注。特朗普新政府呼吁两国之间更为公平的贸易关系。美国官员曾表示,韩国货币在某一时刻过度升值或贬值会扰乱市场,从而会对美国公司造成损伤。

Currently, South Korea is one of six countries on the US Treasury Department's “monitoring” list for potential currency manipulation. The list also includes China, Japan, Taiwan, Germany and Switzerland. To note, no US trading partners (including these countries) were actually labeled as such in the most current report.4

目前,韩国是美国财政部潜在汇率操纵“监控”名单的六个国家之一。该名单还包括中国、日本、台湾、德国和瑞士。值得注意的是,在最近的报道中,美国的贸易伙伴(包括这些国家)实际上都没有被贴上这样的标签。[4]

As South Korea has met some of the criteria the United States uses to consider a country a manipulator (although again, it has not officially labeled South Korea one), the US government began a process to demand special trade negotiations. This trade relationship going forward is worth noting, as the dynamic could change.

由于韩国已符合美国将一个国家视为操纵国(但重申一次,并没有正式给韩国贴上这一标签)的一些条件 ,所以美国政府开始启动程序要求特殊贸易谈判。这种贸易关系的发展值得关注,因为这一动态可能会改变。

After the Korea-USA Free Trade Agreement (FTA) went into force in 2012, the trade surplus with the United States increased sharply to more than US$20 billion in 2016, double that of 2011.5 The United States imports many goods from South Korea, including vehicles, machinery, pharmaceuticals and mineral fuels.

在二零一二年《韩美自由贸易协定》生效后,韩国对美国的贸易顺差在二零一六年急剧增加至超过200亿美元,是二零一一年的两倍。[5]美国从韩国进口许多商品,包括汽车、机器、药品和矿物燃料等。

Trump claimed the FTA brought loss of about 100,000 US jobs, although some have disputed that claim. South Korea recently rejected a US proposal to revise the trade deal, citing the need for further study as to the causes and impacts of the trade deficit.

特朗普声称,自由贸易协定造成美国损失大约10万个就业岗位,但一些人对此激烈抗辩。韩国最近拒绝了美国修改贸易协议的提议,理由是需要进一步研究造成贸易逆差的原因及其影响。

South Korea has already lowered its dependency on the United States quite significantly during the past 10 to 15 years, while China has emerged to become a major trade partner. In order to minimize the Trump administration's protective trade policy, South Korea seems likely to import more US products, especially in regard to oil. South Korea started to import US shale oil starting in November 2016.

在过去10到15年里,韩国已经大大降低了对美国的依赖,而中国已经成为韩国一个主要的贸易伙伴。为了尽可能减少特朗普政府的贸易保护政策造成的影响,韩国可能会进口更多美国产品,尤其是石油产品。韩国从二零一六年十一月开始进口美国页岩油。

Most South Koreans (including some of my colleagues) have been living with the threat from North Korea from the day they were born. So, what is happening now is not surprising to them and as in the past, the threats have not deterred them from going about their business and attempting to improve their lives and the lives of their families.

大多数韩国人(包括我的一些同事)从他们出生的那天起就一直生活在朝鲜的威胁之下。因此,现在所发生的事对他们来说不足为奇,正如过去一样,这些威胁并没有阻止他们做生意,以及努力改善他们和家人的生活。

Of course, a nuclear war represents a potential global disaster, so there really is no way to plan for it, at least from an investment standpoint. We just have to try to keep calm and carry on for the time being.

当然,核战争代表着一场潜在的全球大灾难,因此,我们真的没有办法对此进行规划,至少从投资角度来看确实如此。眼下我们只好努力保持冷静,继续前进。

In upcoming blogs, I'll report on my recent trip to South Korea and the investment opportunities we currently see there as we hope for a peaceful resolution of the current situation.

在下一篇博客中,我将分享我最近的韩国之旅,以及我们所看到的投资机会,我们同样希望能和平破解目前的局面。

Mark Mobius's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

马克·莫比乌斯经理的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

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重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1.The Heritage Foundation, 2019 Index of US Military Strength.

[1] 资料来源:传统基金会,二零一九年《美国军事实力指数》。

2. US Congressional Research Service, “US-South Korea Relations,” May 23, 2019.

[2] 资料来源:美国国会研究服务局,“美韩关系”,二零一九年五月二十三日。

3. Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

[3] 资料来源:斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所。

4. US Department of the Treasury, “Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States,” April 2019.

[4] 资料来源:美国财政部,“美国主要贸易伙伴的外汇政策”报告,二零一九年四月。

5. Office of the United States Trade Representative, United States Census Bureau.

[5] 资料来源:美国贸易代表办公室、美国人口普查局。

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