新兴市场迎来科技创新
Emerging Markets Embrace Technological Innovation
1747字
2019-12-12 15:58
218阅读
火星译客

Emerging markets have not only embraced the use of technology, but have become global market innovators in many areas. Chetan Sehgal, senior managing director and director of portfolio management, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, takes a look at how emerging markets have embraced technology, and explains why he's excited about investment opportunities in this space. He says emerging markets are now at the forefront of the latest technological developments, from mobile banking and shopping to robotics, autonomous vehicles, health care and more.

新兴市场擅于吸收运用新科技,而且在众多领域成为全球市场的创新者。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队高级董事总经理兼投资组合管理团队总监切坦•塞加尔讨论了新兴市场如何接受科技创新,并解释了他为什么看好该领域的投资机遇。他表示,新兴市场目前正处于新技术开发的前沿,从移动银行、购物到机器人技术、无人驾驶汽车、医疗保健等等。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Dutch, French, German, Italian

本帖还提供中文(简体)、荷兰文、法文、德文、意大利文版

It wasn't all that long ago that shopping for clothes, books and other wares meant traveling to a store, mall or market. Today, we can buy nearly anything on the internet from any location. The world's largest online retailer is located in China.

几年前,人们购置衣物、书籍和其他物品需要前往商店、购物中心或集市。而今,无论在世界的哪个角落,人们几乎可以通过互联网买到任何物品。全球最大的电商在中国。

Just a few years ago, making a bank deposit meant a trip to a local bank branch, where you'd stand in line to wait for a bank teller to process your transaction. Today, Poland is considered a leader in online banking technology, with one bank there offering features such as 30-second loan approval via mobile phone as well as alerts offering custom advice and discounts based on a user's behavior and location. A Turkish bank won a global innovation award in 2017 for its agricultural smartphone app, which helps farmers share data and information and get advice in real time, and even acts as a platform for equipment rentals.

就在数年之前,存钱到银行账户意味着去当地银行网点,排队等候银行柜员办理交易。如今,在拥有全球领先电子银行技术的波兰,已有一家银行提供30秒手机贷款审批服务,以及基于用户行为和所处位置定制理财方案和折扣提醒。土耳其的一家银行于二零一七年凭藉智能手机农业应用程序荣获全球创新奖,这一应用可让农民实时分享数据和信息,并获得建议,甚至可以充当设备租赁平台。

The largest maker of smartphones to power these online transactions is located in South Korea.

支持此类在线交易的最大智能手机制造商位于韩国。

This technological transformation has not only made things like shopping and banking easier, it has spread into nearly every facet of our lives. In health care, emerging-market innovations are attracting the attention of companies and providers in developed countries where costs are escalating. Many years ago, Mexico, for example, created a telephone-based health care advice and triage service available to more than one million subscribers and their families at a low cost, paid through their phone bills.1 In India, diabetic patients affiliated with a particular hospital can text their blood sugar count to clinicians and receive feedback via their mobile phone.

此类技术转型不仅让购物与银行业务更加便利,也已经渗透到我们日常生活的方方面面。在医疗保健方面,随着已发展国家的市场成本持续上涨,新兴市场的创新正吸引着各大企业和供应商。例如,墨西哥多年前开发了医疗保健电话咨询和分流服务,可供一百多万名订阅用户及家庭使用,服务费非常低,通过电话账单即可支付。[1] 在印度,糖尿病患者通过网络绑定诊疗机构,通过手机即可向临床医生发送血糖计数并接收医生反馈。

According to a 2014 PwC study, more than 59% of patients living in emerging markets used at least one mobile health application or service, compared with 35% in the developed world.2

根据普华永道二零一四年的一项研究,新兴市场超过59%的患者至少使用过一项移动医疗应用程序或服务,而已发展国家的比例为35%。[2]

As of 2016, China, India, the United States, Brazil and Japan represented the largest internet user base in the world, respectively, with 1.72 billion in total.3 The three emerging markets within the list command a total of 1.32 billion users.4 That means 1.32 billion users have access to goods, services and information. As such, we think e-commerce is still very much a penetration growth story, resonating in several markets as consumers increasingly use multiple devices for online transactions.

截至二零一六年,中国、印度、美国、巴西和日本拥有全球绝大多数互联网用户,共计17.2亿人。[3] 其中三个新兴市场共拥有13.2亿用户。[4] 这意味着有13.2亿用户通过网络了解商品、服务和资讯。 因此,我们认为电子商务仍然具有极大的普及增长空间,这在多个市场皆是如此,因为使用各种设备进行在线交易的消费者日益增多。

Technological Leapfrogging

技术飞跃

Often, developing countries can capitalize on technology more quickly than more advanced countries. A technological “leapfrogging” enables the adoption of new technologies that bypass legacy models or systems. For example, some countries in Africa quickly embraced mobile payment systems without ever building brick-and-mortar bank branches.

发展中国家通常比已发展国家更快地运用科技。技术飞跃能够绕过现有模式或系统应用新技术。例如,非洲一些国家甚至在开设银行分支机构之前就开通了移动支付系统。

The supercomputers' arms race used to be an American-Japanese rivalry. Although it was late to join the race, China now is sitting at the very top of the list with the world's most powerful supercomputer, which ran a simulation of the creation of space and time in just over an hour.5 What's even more impressive, this powerful computer runs on Chinese-made microprocessors.

超级计算机军备竞赛曾经是美日之间的竞赛。虽说现在参加竞赛为时已晚,但中国目前已经位居榜首,拥有全球最强大的超级计算机,该计算机运行空间和时间创建模拟仅需一小时。[5] 令人更为印象深刻的是,这台强大的计算机运行的是中国制造的微处理器。

Emerging markets are quickly automating their factories, accounting for a quarter of the world's industrial robotics demand.6

新兴市场正在迅速实现工厂自动化,占全球工业机器人需求的四分之一。[6]

Technology is also shaping the automobile industry, introducing new trends such as electric vehicles and automated driving systems.

科技亦影响着汽车工业变革,引领电动汽车和无人驾驶系统等新潮流。

Decades ago, the United States and Japan were the world's leading automobile producers. Today, China is the world's largest auto producer and is at the forefront of the autonomous vehicle race. There have been several Chinese partnerships over the past few years in the areas of autonomous driving software. Component manufacturers are also joining this trend as we see new mobility as a long-term theme.

数十年前,美国和日本是全球领先的汽车生产国。如今,中国是全球最大的汽车生产国,引领无人驾驶汽车竞赛。过去数年,中国在无人驾驶软件领域已达成多项合作伙伴协议。零配件制造商亦顺应这种趋势,我们可以看到新型汽车已成为长期主题。

Self-driving vehicles are one of the key sectors in the Chinese government's “Made in China 2025” initiative, which encourages collaboration between Chinese technology companies in all aspects of development. In December 2017, the Beijing Municipal Transport Commission granted approval for testing self-driving vehicles under certain conditions.

无人驾驶汽车是中国政府“中国制造2025”规划的关键一环,鼓励中国的科技公司在开发过程的方方面面展开合作。二零一七年十二月,北京市交通委员会批准允许在特定路段及条件下开展无人驾驶路测。

The Story's Just Starting

故事刚刚开始

These are just a few examples of how developing countries are embracing technology, and we expect more new opportunities to emerge. In 2016, more than 40% of the world's new patent applications came from emerging economies, with China leading the charge at 1.3 million applications filed, more than the United States and Japan combined. 7

以上只是列举了一些发展中国家的科技应用案例,我们期待更多新机遇。二零一六年,全球40%以上的新专利申请来自新兴经济体,其中中国以130万份申请领先,超过美国和日本总数之和。 [7]

The technology sector in emerging markets is providing us with many interesting opportunities, from hardware to software to various forms of e-commerce and entertainment.

新兴市场的科技行业为我们提供了很多极具吸引力的商机,从硬件、软件,到各式各样的电子商务和娱乐。

Our job is to evaluate whether companies have sustainable earnings power and are trading at a discount relative to their history as well as what is available in the market. As part of our research process, we also strive to meet the people behind the companies whenever possible. Our team of investment professionals around the world keeps us in contact with entrepreneurs in many emerging markets.

我们的工作是评估企业是否具有可持续盈利能力,其股价相对于过往表现是否被低估,以及市场上的投资机遇。在我们的研究过程中,我们亦尽可能与有关企业的管理人员交谈。我们的全球投资专家团队与众多新兴市场的企业家保持着联络。

In the not-so-distant past, developed markets were at the forefront of new innovations. That is no longer the case. Developing countries are inventing unique solutions to meet the unique challenges they face, and we expect this trend to continue.

几年前,发达市场还处于科技创新的前沿。而今,形势完全逆转。发展中国家正在研发特色解决方案,以应对其面临的独特挑战,而我们预计这一趋势仍将持续。

Chetan Sehgal's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

切坦•塞加尔经理的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

_________________________________

_________________________________

1. Source: McKinsey & Co, “The Emerging Market in Health Care Innovation,” May 2010.

[1]资料来源:McKinsey & Co,“新兴市场的医疗保健创新”,二零一零年五月。

2. Source: PwC, “Emerging MHealth: Paths for Growth,” 2014.

[2]资料来源:普华永道,“新兴市场医疗:增长之路”,二零一四年。

3. Source: Internet Live Stats as of 2016.

[3]资料来源:二零一六年互联网实时数据统计。

4. Ibid.

[4] 出处同上。

5. Source: South China Morning Post, “Chinese scientists create biggest virtual universe with world's fastest computer, beating European record” (July 2017).

[5]资料来源:南华早报,中国科学家以全球最快计算机创建最大虚拟宇宙,突破欧洲纪录(二零一七年七月)。

6. Source: IFR International Federation of Robotics, World Robotics 2016 Edition.

[6]资料来源:IFR 国际机器人联合会,世界机器人二零一六年版本。

7. Source: WIPO (2017). World Intellectual Property Indicators 2017. Geneva: World Intellectual Property Organization.

[7] 世界知识产权组织(二零一七年)。二零一七年世界知识产权指标。日内瓦:世界知识产权组织。

0 条评论
评论不能为空