为何说对印度股市踩刹车为时过早
Why It’s Not Time to Pull the Brakes on Indian Stocks
1529字
2019-12-12 16:14
53阅读
火星译客

As Indian equities have come off the peaks from the start of the year, some emerging-market investors may be feeling a little cautious. Despite this pullback in stocks, Sukumar Rajah, Senior Managing Director and Director of Portfolio Management, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, thinks the current investment environment, coupled with some homegrown drivers, could spur on the Indian equity market to provide even more opportunities than before.

由于印度股市在今年初从峰值回落,一些新兴市场投资者可能会感到些许紧张。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的高级董事总经理和投资组合管理总监苏库玛•拉贾表示,尽管股市出现回调,当前的投资环境加上一些本土的增长驱动力仍能为印度股市提供超出以往的投资机会。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Spanish

本帖还提供中文(简体)、法文、德文、西班牙文版

There are plenty of reasons to be sceptical about the prospects for Indian equities, but we remain resolutely positive, based on India's compelling growth prospects. India's projected economic growth of an average 7.3%1 in 2018-2022 would indicate the country's growth story shows no signs of slowing down.

基于印度强劲的发展态势,尽管有充分理由质疑印度股市的前景,我们仍坚定看好。印度[1]二零一八年至二零二二年平均经济增速预期为 7.3%,表示该国的发展并无放缓迹象。

We see the Indian economy able to shake off the negative effects of the recent global equity selloff, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), introduced in 2017 and the demonetisation in late 2016. These developments had temporarily affected cash-intensive industries and supply chains—especially with small traders supplying to larger manufacturing companies—as they found it difficult to meet the paperwork required.

我们看到,不论是面对近期全球股市下跌,还是二零一七年推出的商品及服务税(GST)和二零一六年底的废钞,印度经济都能摆脱负面影响。这些发展对现金密集型行业和供应链造成了短暂影响,尤其是对为大型制造企业供货的小型贸易商,因为他们很难满足文书要求。

As we see these effects likely wearing off, we think there is more room for Indian equities to potentially appreciate. Despite some outflows from the global equity selloff and the Punjab National Bank (PNB) scandal, we believe India's favourable demographic backdrop could lead to more growth in the equity market, particularly in large-cap stocks.

我们认为,这些影响可能会慢慢消失,因此印度股市仍有升值潜力。尽管在全球股市下跌时有一定外流,且旁遮普国家银行(PNB)陷于丑闻之中,但印度有利的人口背景会为其股市带来更多增长,特别是大盘股。

Homegrown Factors

国内因素

Domestic demand now accounts for the largest proportion of the Indian economy and is driven by the burgeoning middle-class population.

目前,受中产阶级人口迅速增长所驱动,印度的国内需求在其经济中占比最大。

It's not the first time we've noted the rise of the middle-class, and it won't be the last—the population expansion is only in its initial stages and some estimates projected it to double in size within the next eight years.2

这并不是我们首次注意到中产阶级的崛起,也不会是最后一次——人口扩张还处于初始阶段,根据预测未来八年人口会翻一番。[2]

In our view, favourable macroeconomic and demographics factors should lead to income growth, which should help further drive domestic demand. We also see savings likely to grow. We'd expect companies in the consumer discretionary sector to thrive on the back of India's growing middle-class population, with people striving to upgrade items such as cars, jewellery and designer clothing. And with this, upgrading non-essential items, such as air conditioning units and electronic gadgets, may become consumer priorities as disposable incomes rise.

在我们看来,良好的宏观经济和人口因素会推动收入增长,应可进一步刺激国内需求。同时,储蓄水平也可能增长。我们预期,随着印度中产阶级人口不断增长,加上人们努力升级汽车、珠宝和名牌服装等产品,非必需消费品板块的企业将蓬勃发展。并且,随着可支配收入增加,升级非必需品(如空调和电子产品)可能成为消费者的优先考虑。

Given rising disposable incomes among the country's rising middle class, we anticipate a growing demand for credit and investment services and as such, see potential investment opportunities within the private retail banking industry, since public-sector banks have been focusing on improving asset quality, which has restricted their ability to compete in the retail space.

鉴于该国中产阶级日益崛起、可支配收入持续增长,我们预计信贷和投资服务需求亦将水涨船高。并且,由于公共部门银行一直专注改善资产质量,以至零售领域的竞争能力受到制约,我们也看到在私人零售银行业有潜在投资机会。

As state-owned banks have found themselves weighed down by debt and the alleged PNB scandal, it has highlighted the deficiencies in how state-owned banks are managed. We believe real improvements in public-sector banks have yet to be seen, which will likely accelerate the shift in market share towards private-sector banks. We think investors are realising that strong balance sheets and the adopting advances in technology could help private banking gain an even larger share of the market.

国有银行发觉自身负债累累,PNB 也身陷丑闻,突出了国有银行的管理缺陷。我们认为,公共部门银行尚未有实际改善,这可能会加速市场份额向私营部门银行转移。投资者正意识到,强劲的资产负债表和先进技术的运用可能有助于私人银行在市场中获得更大份额。

Likewise, the middle-class population has boosted demand for better quality housing, which we expect should be positive for housebuilders and real-estate management companies. These companies tend to be positioned in the mid- to large-cap area of India's equity market.

同样的,中产阶级人口对更优质住房的需求提升预期应会利好房屋建筑商和房地产管理企业。这些企业往往是印度股市中的中、大盘股。

Regulatory changes implemented in May 2017 have begun to transform the property development sector, but we think there's more to come.

二零一七年五月实施的新规已开始对房地产开发板块进行改革,但我们认为将不止于此。

In the 2018-19 February Union Budget, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley suggested that an affordable housing fund would aim to provide housing for all by 2022 and allow better access to major cities through the availability of urban properties.

在二零一八年至一九年二月联邦预算案中,财政部长阿伦·贾特利表示将建立经济适用房基金,致力在二零二二年前让全民住有所居,并且通过提供更多的城市居所,让人们更容易来到大城市生活。

We feel this initiative is welcome, but we think the government left the door open to supporting the urban middle class. That said, if additional incentives were implemented it might accelerate urban home construction and kick-start growth in jobs in the semi-skilled sector.

我们感觉这项倡议将很受欢迎,但我们认为政府也为支持城市中产阶级敞开了一道门。话虽如此,如果实施额外的激励措施,可能会加速城市房屋建设,并推动半熟练部门的就业增长。

Despite this, we'd still expect to see a pick-up in capital expenditure (capex), particularly in India's real estate sector. We've been seeing for some time a downtrend in capex, but expect to see growing demand for better-quality housing and goods spark a rebound.

然而,我们仍预期资本性开支的增长,尤其是在印度的房地产板块。过去一段时间里,资本性开支有下降趋势,但预期对更优质住房和商品日益增长的需求会引发反弹。

The government also announced it would reintroduce a 10% long-term capital gains tax and apply to any sale of equity shares over 100,000 rupees. The change, in our view, should not present a kneejerk reaction in Indian equities due to the clause that exempts capital gains tax on sales up to January 31, 2018.

政府也宣布了将引入 10% 的长期资本利得税,适用于所有十万卢比以上的股票出售。我们认为,这一变化在印度股市上反响应该不大,因为该条款豁免了截至二零一八年一月三十一日的资本利得税。

In our view, there's more to come for the Indian equity market as it adjusts to the effects of the Union Budget. Despite some investor trepidation on India's equity market run, we believe a combination of favourable macroeconomic and demographic factors could make room for higher valuations.

在应对联邦预算的调整中,印度股市还会有更多的状况发生。尽管一些投资者对印度股市表示担忧,但我们相信,结合有利的宏观经济和人口因素,将有空间实现更高估值。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

______________________________

______________________________

1. Source: OECD Economic Outlook, India, November 2017. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realised.

[1] 资料来源:OECD 经济展望,印度,二零一七年十一月。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

0 条评论
评论不能为空