深化改革或可推动拉美经济体实现进一步增长
Further Reforms Could Lead Latin American Economies to Become Bigger Growth Players
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2019-12-11 08:34
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We recently caught up with Gustavo Stenzel, director of Latin America strategy, to discuss his outlook for Brazil and Mexico (which have general elections this year) and also Argentina's potential return to emerging-market status. He explains why he thinks these economies could benefit from an improving economic backdrop and government reforms.

最近,我们采访了拉丁美洲战略总监古斯塔沃•斯坦泽尔,讨论他对巴西和墨西哥(今年大选)的展望,以及阿根廷重新获得新兴市场地位的潜力。他认为这些经济体将会受惠于趋好经济背景和政府改革,并解释了原因。

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As we near the second half of 2018, we are generally optimistic about the growth prospects for Latin American economies. The most recent economic statistics appear supportive. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Latin America is predicted to rise to 2.0% in 2018, up from 1.3% in 2017.1 Despite recent volatility and negative sentiment arising from increased rhetoric regarding trade protectionism, growth in the region continues to be supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment, higher commodity prices, continued strength in global growth, low inflation and accommodative monetary policies.

二零一八年下半年将近,我们普遍看好拉丁美洲经济体的增长前景。最新的经济统计数据显然印证了这观点。预期二零一八年拉丁美洲国内生产总值 (GDP) 将从二零一七年的 1.3% 提高到 2.0%。1尽管有关贸易保护主义的激烈讨论引起了最近的波动和负面情绪,但是利好的宏观经济环境、较高的商品价格、全球增长持续上扬、低通胀和宽松的货币政策为该地区经济的持续增长注入了强心剂。

In particular, we think Latin America's two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, could continue to benefit from economic growth and reforms in areas such as labor, fiscal consolidation and private investments. However, we believe further reforms are needed, and upcoming elections in those countries could influence our outlook.

具体而言,我们认为拉丁美洲两大经济体巴西和墨西哥将继续受惠于经济增长和劳动力、财政稳定和私人投资等领域的改革。然而,我们认为需要进一步改革,而且,两国即将举行的大选可能会影响我们的展望。

Brazil's New Beginnings

巴西的新开端

Our long-term outlook for Brazil is positive, bolstered by strength in the agriculture sector, increased consumer spending2 and some successful economic reforms.

我们看好巴西长期前景,强劲的农业产业、增长的消费性支出2和一些成功的经济改革都将起到推动作用。

Likewise, Brazil's GDP growth is rebounding—it's a much-needed marker after the 2015-2017 Brazilian economic crisis. The economic recovery that began last year seems to be strengthening, as fourth-quarter 2017 GDP growth was fairly broad-based across all sectors of the economy.

同样,巴西的 GDP 增长回弹——这是二零一五年至二零一七年巴西经济危机后亟待出现的一个增长标志。自去年开始的经济复苏力度似乎正在继续加强,因为二零一七年第四季度 GDP 的增长广泛出现在该经济体的所有板块。

Impact of Political Uncertainty in Brazil

巴西政治不确定性的影响

Brazilian President Michel Temer's administration has already implemented some much-needed reforms, and some remaining proposals could still be partially met this year before the October 2018 general elections. These include auctioning offshore blocks full of oil deposits to major players in the oil sector.

在巴西总统米歇尔·特梅尔的施政下已实施了一些迫切需要的改革,在二零一八年大选前,其余一些提案仍可在今年得到部分实施,包括向石油业巨头拍卖石油储量丰足的海上区块。

The Brazilian labor market received a boost after new laws, which came into effect last year appeared to benefit both companies and job seekers. Under the new laws, companies are allowed to hire workers with flexible schedules, saving companies money and reducing unemployment. Despite the success of these reforms, the government's plans to push through a pivotal overhaul of Brazil's costly pension system failed.

出台的新法律在去年开始生效后,巴西劳动力市场呈现出一派繁荣,显然使企业和求职者都大获裨益。根据新法律,公司获准雇佣弹性工作制员工,此举不但降低了企业成本,而且提高了就业率。尽管这些改革措施取得成功,政府推进巴西昂贵的养老金体系关键改革的计划却失败了。

With the Brazilian general election set to take place in October, we think it's unlikely we'll see any action taken on pension reforms until 2019, regardless of the election outcome. But we are generally positive on the possibilities Brazil offers, due to the government's continued emphasis on reforms.

鉴于巴西定于十月举行大选,我们认为,无论大选结果如何,我们都不大可能在二零一九年之前看到养老金改革的任何措施。但由于其政府一直强调改革,所以我们普遍看好巴西的潜力。

We recognize uncertainty will likely continue to weigh on Brazil's often-unpredictable political landscape, as candidates from outside the political establishment could emerge. Any election-related uncertainty could weigh on investors' minds.

由于可能涌现出政治体系外的候选人,我们认为不确定性或会对通常不可预测的巴西政治形势造成持续影响。任何关于选举的不确定性都会影响投资者的想法。

Still, we think that uncertainty in Brazil can create buying opportunities in Brazil and other economies in Latin America, as some companies have ended up stronger from the recession period due to the actions undertaken during that difficult period. Cost reductions by companies will likely bring permanent changes within these organizations and give them better financial leverage in the long run.

尽管如此,我们认为,由于一些企业已经凭借在经济危机期间采取的措施渡过难关,并变得更加强大,巴西的不确定性会在巴西和拉丁美洲其他经济体中带来买入机会。企业的成本节约措施可能会为它们带来永久性变化,并长期给他们带来更好的财务杠杆。

Reform Uncertainty Can Offer Opportunity

改革的不确定性可以创造机会

At the same time, we think consumer stocks could receive a boost after Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate to a record low of 6.5% in March and signaled that it is likely to lower interest rates further. Commercial banks and segments of the consumer retail market could be especially attractive given that low inflation and resumption of consumer credit growth will likely help activity in these areas.

同时,我们认为,在巴西央行三月将其基准利率降至历史新低的 6.5%,并暗示其可能进一步降低利率后,消费类股将会提振。受低通胀和消费信贷重新增长的推动,商业银行和消费零售市场的细分市场尤其具有吸引力。

In addition, we see strong pent-up demand for investments in infrastructure, such as transportation and financial infrastructure platforms, to tackle many bottlenecks for growth.

此外,我们看到对基础设施投资的积压需求强烈,比如运输和金融基础设施平台,这将打破许多增长瓶颈。

As we see growth return, aided by reform tailwinds, we remain optimistic about the future. Nonetheless, we are mindful of the potential volatility ahead and will watch developments in Brazil closely, particularly the upcoming election.

由于我们看到改革重新带来增长,我们对未来仍保持乐观。尽管如此,我们仍会注意未来可能出现的波动,并将密切关注巴西的动态,尤其是即将到来的选举。

Mexico Regains Footing

墨西哥重新站稳脚跟

Brazil isn't the only economy where reforms are starting to bear fruit. Mexico, the second-largest economy in Latin America after Brazil, has seen the government break up monopolies, open up the utility and energy sectors, and push ahead with education and labor reforms. We believe the implementation of the structural reform agenda will likely support growth going forward.

开始取得改革成果的经济体并非只有巴西。墨西哥是拉丁美洲仅次于巴西的第二大经济体,其政府已经打破垄断,开放公用事业和能源产业,并推进教育和劳动改革。我们相信,结构性改革议程的执行将会支持未来发展。

Mexico has been gradually positioning itself as an inexpensive manufacturing hub that's linked to North America's supply chain. On the domestic front, Mexico still has an underpenetrated banking system even compared to other emerging-market economies.

墨西哥已逐渐将自己定位为链接北美洲供应链的低劳动力成本制造业中心。在国内,即使与其他新兴市场经济体相比,墨西哥仍有一个未饱和的银行业体系。

The country generally offers cheaper manufacturing labor than China and an increasing number of specialized workers. Mexico's history in the manufacturing sector, along with these cost advantages, means the country has been able to regain its position as a global manufacturing hub.

该国一般提供比中国更廉价的制造业劳动力,专业工人也越来越多。墨西哥的制造产业历史,加上这些成本优势,意味着该国已经能够重新获得全球制造业中心的地位。

With a general election in Mexico scheduled for July 2018, it'll be a busy political year for the region. Whoever wins the Mexican presidency will have to lead renegotiation discussions with its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners: The United States and Canada.

墨西哥大选计划于二零一八年七月举行,这将是该地区政事繁忙的一年。无论谁当选墨西哥总统,都必须与其在北美自由贸易协定 (NAFTA) 中的合作伙伴———美国和加拿大重新谈判。

Mexico's temporary exemption from US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will likely depend on satisfactory NAFTA negotiations. Nonetheless, we view the country's macroeconomic outlook as stable with fiscal discipline and focus on an open economy.

墨西哥暂免美国钢铁和铝进口关税可能将取决于 NAFTA 谈判能否取得满意结果。无论如何,我们认为凭借财政整治措施和对开放经济的重视,该国宏观经济前景稳定。

If Mexico is able to close an agreement on NAFTA, it would be seen as a positive. With short-term market jitters aside, over the medium to long term we do not expect Mexico to deviate from market-oriented policies that are now taking hold across Latin America.

如果墨西哥在 NAFTA 上能够达成协议,这将是一个积极的利好因素。短期市场有所动荡,但是,就中长期而言,我们预期墨西哥不会偏离整个拉丁美洲现在正在执行的以市场为导向的政策。

Argentina on the Path to Recovery

阿根廷走上复苏之路

We believe recent volatility regarding the Argentine peso is part of the country's path to adopting a market-friendly approach.

我们认为,阿根廷比索最近的波动显示该国正在采取市场友好型途径来发展经济。

Many important measures have already been implemented, such as opening up markets for capital flows, readjusting tariffs that were artificially low and restoring a credible monetary policy. Still, macro challenges persist amid a backdrop of a high current account deficit and stubbornly high inflation. Strong measures were taken to readjust expectations with a 675 basis point (6.75%) interest-rate hike to 40%.3

许多重要措施已在执行,比如开放市场让资本流动、重新调整人为压低的关税、以及重新实行可信的货币政策。但是,在经常账目赤字大和通胀居高不下的背景下,宏观挑战仍然存在。为了调整预期,该国实行了强有力的措施,利率提高 675 个基点 (6.75%) 到 40%。3

Despite this, our long-term view is optimistic. After years of populist measures, we think Argentina offers potential for growth on the back of multi-year GDP annualized growth, improving unemployment rates, strengthening private consumption growth and robust industrial output. Bank loan penetration is extremely low,4 which will allow for strong banking growth and consolidation. Other opportunities also arise given the low base of penetration of other goods and services, such as autos or civil construction, as well as continuation of a full adoption of market prices in regulated sectors.

尽管如此,我们对它的长期前景持乐观态度。历经多年平民主义措施,我们认为,凭借多年 GDP 年化增长、失业率改善、个人消费增长率提高和强劲的工业产出,阿根廷具备增长的潜力。银行贷款饱和度极低,4这将为银行业的增长和整合带来强劲潜力。鉴于诸如汽车或民用建筑产业等其他商品和服务产业的低饱和度,以及受管制的产业继续全面采用市场价格体系,其他机会也将出现。

Argentina's efforts at opening up its economy, which could attract investments across multiple sectors, might be recognized by MSCI and put the country in line for a potential upgrade to emerging-market status.

阿根廷在开放其经济上所做的努力将为多个产业吸引投资,这更有可能赢得 MSCI 垂青,让该国有机会晋升到新兴市场地位。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

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1. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2018. There is no assurance that any projection, estimate or forecast will be realized.

1.国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》,二零一八年四月版。不保证任何预测、估计或预报将会实现。

2. World Bank National Accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files, May 2018.

2.世界银行国民经济核算数据,和 OECD 国民经济核算数据文件,二零一八年五月。

3. Banco Central de la Republica Argentina, May 8, 2018.

3.阿根廷中央银行,二零一八年五月八日。

4. Source: Bank of International Settlements (BIS), as of September 30, 2017.

4.资料来源:国际清算银行 (BIS),截至二零一七年九月三十日。

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