沙特阿拉伯改革取得新进展
A New Development in Saudi Arabia's Reform Story
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2019-12-10 10:03
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Index provider MSCI's decision to include Saudi Arabia in its emerging-markets index will likely transform the Kingdom's equity market, and potentially those across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, according to Bassel Khatoun and Salah Shamma, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity. They weigh in on the implications they see for Saudi Arabia and the wider region of the MSCI announcement, which follows index provider FTSE's reclassification in March.

指数提供商 MSCI 决定将沙特阿拉伯纳入其新兴市场指数,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的巴赛尔•卡顿和萨拉赫•沙玛称这有可能影响沙特乃至中东北非 (MENA) 地区的股票市场。继指数提供商富时在三月重新分类后,MSCI 公告对沙特阿拉伯和更广泛地区的影响如何,他们从专业角度进行了权衡。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Dutch, French, German

这篇文章也有中文(简体)、荷兰文、法文、德文版

MSCI's decision to include Saudi Arabia in its emerging-market index recognizes the positive changes the country's capital market has undergone over the last few years.

MSCI 决定将沙特阿拉伯纳入其新兴市场指数,这是对该国资本市场过去几年积极变化的肯定。

We think Saudi Arabia has an exciting growth story to tell, and we see a seat at the MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index1 table as just reward for the improvements made to its equity market infrastructure, bringing it more in line with international standards.

我们认为,沙特阿拉伯的发展令人振奋,鉴于其股票市场基础设施的改善使其更符合国际标准,我们认为将其纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数[1]确属实至名归。

Saudi Arabia's emerging-market inclusion, which will take effect over two phases in May and August 2019, will likely transform the Kingdom's capital market, and should have a positive impact on the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We think it is the most significant reform story for emerging-market economies since China.

将沙特阿拉伯纳入新兴市场指数将于二零一九年五月和八月分两个阶段进行,这不但有可能改变沙特王国的资本市场,而且应该会对更大范围内的中东北非 (MENA) 地区产生积极影响。我们认为,这是新兴市场经济体改革篇章中除中国之外的最恢弘一页。

The speed of capital market reform in Saudi Arabia is impressive. The country's Capital Markets Authority (CMA) and stock exchange (the Tadawul) have spearheaded the drive to modernize the Kingdom's equity market infrastructure and accessibility for investors, by providing flexible ownership limits and introducing a two-day settlement cycle for trades.

沙特阿拉伯资本市场改革速度令人印象深刻。沙特资本市场管理局(CMA)和证券交易所(Tadawul)通过提供灵活的所有权限制,并推行两天交易结算周期,率先推动沙特王国的股票市场基础设施现代化和投资者入市的便捷性。

The MSCI move follows FTSE Russell's decision earlier this year to change Saudi Arabia's stock-market classification to Secondary Emerging-Market status within the FTSE Russell Global Equity Index Series, effective March 2019.

MSCI 的行动是在富时罗素今年初的决定后做出,富时罗素决定从二零一九年三月开始将沙特的股票市场分类调整为富时罗素全球股票指数系列中的二级新兴市场。

Saudi Arabia's Reform Story

沙特阿拉伯的改革篇章

With approximately US$9 billion in foreign investment already in the Kingdom's stock exchange2, we think Saudi Arabia's new emerging-market status is likely to bring significant foreign investment, which could, in the long term, trickle through to surrounding economies.

沙特股票交易所已有约 90 亿美元外国投资[2],我们认为,沙特阿拉伯的新晋新兴市场地位有可能吸引大量外资,从长远看这些投资或会渗透到周边经济体。

Improving economic fundamentals are also likely to lure investors. A mix of higher oil prices and lower deficits have resulted in more government spending, which in turn has increased non-oil gross domestic product (GDP)3 accelerated corporate earnings growth.

不断改善的经济基本面也有可能吸引投资者。石油价格高企和赤字偏低共同引致政府开支增加,反过来增加了非石油国内生产总值 (GDP)[3],并加快企业盈利增长。

Saudi Arabia's inclusion in the MSCI EM Index should help eradicate what we have always viewed as a material disconnect between the GDP contribution of the region and its representation in international equity indexes. To date, our analysis shows the MENA region accounts for a paltry 1.56% of the MSCI EM Index, through the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Egypt.4 With Saudi Arabia's inclusion, that share of the index could increase significantly. Initially, Saudi Arabia will command 2.6% of the index alone. However, with the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's weight in the index could increase substantially to over 4% in our estimation. Additionally, as part of this market classification review, MSCI has also decided to include Kuwait on its watch list. We think it's likely Kuwait will soon follow Saudi Arabia's footsteps in the near future, and also be upgraded to MSCI EM status.

我们一贯认为,该地区的国内生产总值贡献与其在国际股票指数中的地位之间存在实质性脱节,将沙特阿拉伯纳入 MSCI 新兴市场 指数应有助于消除这种情况。我们的分析显示,迄今为止中东北非地区通过阿拉伯联合酋长国 (阿联酋) 卡塔尔和埃及占 MSCI 新兴市场指数1.56%,可谓微乎其微。[4]随着沙特阿拉伯的纳入,该指数份额会大幅提高。最初,沙特阿拉伯独自占该指数的2.6%。然而,随着国有石油公司 沙特阿美即将首次公开募股 (IPO),我们估计沙特在该指数的权重接近翻一番,达到 4%以上。此外,我们认为科威特在不久的将来也可能紧随沙特阿拉伯的步伐,升级至 MSCI 新兴市场地位。

What we are beginning to witness is the transition of this region from the peripheries into the mainstream of emerging-market investment. We think it provides suitable investors with an additional incentive to be invested in the wider MENA region.

我们开始见证,该地区从新兴市场投资边缘逐步走向主流。我们认为,这将进一步刺激合适的投资者在中东北非地区的更大范围内进行投资。

Deepening Foreign Investment and Liquidity

深化外国投资和流动性

Even after the recent inflows, foreigners still own only 1.8% of the Tadawul.5 By comparison, foreigners own 14.0% of the UAE (13.8% Abu Dhabi and 14.3% Dubai) and by our calculations 9.2% of Qatar, so Saudi Arabia still lags in this respect. We expect foreign ownership levels to substantially increase in the run-up to Saudi Arabia's official MSCI EM inclusion.

即使有最近的资本流入后,外国投资在 Tadawul 中的比重还是仅占 1.8%。[5]相比之下,阿联酋 外国投资占 14.0%(阿布扎比 13.8%,迪拜 14.3%),此外,根据我们的计算,卡塔尔的外国投资占 9.2%。所以就此而言,沙特阿拉伯仍然落后。我们预期,在沙特正式被纳入 MSCI 新兴市场 指数之际,外资持股比例将大幅上升。

Indexes have become a significant dictator of equity flows. With a massive US $1.9 trillion6 tracking the MSCI EM Index7, 80% of which is active and 20% of which is passive, Saudi Arabia's 2.6% country weighting,8 could represent an additional US$40 billion in foreign flows assuming that benchmark weight.9 This is unprecedented in the context of historical inflows into the Tadawul. According to our research, the IPO of Saudi Aramco could also potentially add another US$50 billion of assets into the market, which is approximately about US$536 billion in size.10 This is substantial, considering that over the past 10 years11, only a fraction of these net flows have come into the Saudi market, at approximately $1.9 billion12 in total.

指数已经成为股权资本流动的重要动因。高达 1.9 万亿美元[6]跟踪 MECI 新兴市场 指数[7],80% 为主动管理型资金,20% 为被动管理型,按照沙特阿拉伯2.6%的国家权重[8],即表示另有 400 亿美元的外资流入[9]。这在 Tadawul 资本流入历史上前所未有。根据我们的研究,Saudi Aramco 的 IPO 也有可能再增加 500 亿美元资产投入该市场,此市场规模大约 5,360 亿美元。[10]这属于大量流入,考虑到过去十年[11]的情况,沙特市场资本流入仅为这些净流入的小部分,总计约 19 亿[12]美元。

Historical Precedents from Upgraded Equity Markets

升级的股票市场中的历史先例

Historical precedents of MSCI EM inclusion also paint an encouraging picture. Research indicates increased investor interest in the equity market, in the one-to-two years prior to promotion. Russia, Malaysia, Qatar, the UAE and Pakistan all notably rallied in the period prior to achieving emerging-market status, as seen in the chart below. In the 20 countries that have been promoted to MSCI EM status since 1994, markets have delivered a median return of 55% in the one year prior to effective inclusion13 in the MSCI EM Index.14

纳入 MSCI 新兴市场 开创了历史性先例,也描绘了一幅充满希望的图景。研究表明,在升级前的一两年,投资者对股票市场的兴趣更大。俄罗斯、马来西亚、卡塔尔、阿联酋 和巴基斯坦在获得新兴市场地位前夕均显著大涨,如下图所示。自一九九四年起,在已经升级到 MSCI 新兴市场 地位的 20 个国家/地区中,市场在被纳入[13] MSCI 新兴市场 指数[14]前一年,回报率达到 55% 的中位数。

We anticipate that the bulk of new investment entering Saudi Arabia will likely come from other emerging-market constituents, the largest of which are China, Korea and Taiwan. Other MENA countries' representation in the MSCI EM Index is still low, so its surrounding neighbors will unlikely be a major source of funding for Saudi Arabia, at least in the immediate future.

我们预期,进入沙特阿拉伯的新投资大多数可能来自其他新兴市场,其中中国、韩国和中国台湾地区投资占主导。其他中东北非国家/地区在 MSCI 新兴市场 指数中比例仍然不多,所以沙特阿拉伯周边邻国可能不是其投资的主要来源,至少近期不是。

That said, we think that this addition to MSCI EM could indeed trigger a re-rating of MENA markets as investors look to regional opportunities beyond Saudi Arabia. We believe the knock-on effect for the Kingdom's neighbors could be substantial over the longer term.

尽管如此,我们认为随着投资者在沙特阿拉伯以外地区寻找机会,被纳入 MSCI 新兴市场 确实可以触发中东北非市场的重新评级。我们相信,对沙特邻国造成的连锁反应会持续较长时间。

Some Uncertainty Still Persists

不确定性仍然存在

Despite the exciting transformation, there are still areas of uncertainty. Lower crude oil prices, for example, could still hamper the Kingdom's short-term growth prospects. Economic reform will need to continue if the nation is to succeed in bringing down its budget breakeven price of oil. Another factor to consider is the impact of last year's anti-corruption purge. We have seen a number of steps taken to reassure investors, but it will be important that the Kingdom continues on this trajectory. Lastly, any increase in geopolitical tensions will also need to be monitored closely for its impact on investor confidence.

尽管转变振奋人心,但不确定性仍然存在。例如,较低的原油价格仍然可能制约该国的短期增长前景。如果该国意在成功拉低石油的损益平衡价格,则经济改革需继续推进。另一个需要考虑的因素是去年反腐败运动的影响。我们已经看到该国采取了许多措施,为投资者带来信心,但在此轨道上继往开来将尤为重要。最后,也需要密切关注地缘政治紧张局势加剧的任何态势,因为这会影响投资者信心。

What's Next for Saudi Arabia

沙特阿拉伯未来变化几何

2018 is a historic year for Saudi Arabia, and its MSCI EM inclusion appears to be the most significant milestone for its equity market to date. The increase in foreign flows we expect to see come into the Kingdom should be extremely supportive of the investment environment in the run-up to Saudi Aramco's IPO. And with plans from the Saudi government to increase the number of listed companies in the Tadawul from 180 to 250 by 2022, we think this is just the start of a journey to broadening and deepening the equity market.

二零一八年是沙特阿拉伯具有历史意义的一年,而被纳入 MSCI 新兴市场 指数似乎可堪其股票市场迄今最重要的里程碑。我们预期会看到更多外资流入该国,在 沙特阿美首次公开募股之际,这应该会为投资环境带来极大的支持。此外,沙特政府计划在二零二二年之前把 Tadawul 的上市公司数量从 180 家增加到 250 家,我们认为,这只是拓宽和深化股票市场之路的开端。

The results of the Kingdom's wider economic and social reform agenda are also starting to show. With its budget deficit significantly reduced, despite a record budget expenditure being announced, we are of the view that the overall economic fundamentals are continuing to improve, and that this is being reflected in corporate earnings.

该国扩大经济和社会改革的议程也开始初见成果。尽管宣布了创纪录的预算支出,但是随着其预算赤字明显减小,我们认为,总体经济基本面继续改善,而这会在公司盈利上有所反映。

Saudi Arabia's new MSCI EM status is undoubtedly a huge win for its capital market. The Kingdom is continuing to visibly transform, and we look forward to what it unveils to the world next.

沙特阿拉伯新的 MSCI 新兴市场 地位无疑是其资本市场的巨大胜利。该国仍在推进有目共睹的改变,我们会对它向世界展示的未来风貌抱以期待。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

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1. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-markets countries. MENA representation in the index currently includes Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[1] MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。在该指数中,中东北非股票代表目前包括卡塔尔、阿拉伯联合酋长国和埃及。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不反映任何费用、支出或销售费用。MSCI不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

2. Source: Tadawul Market Report, May 31, 2018. This figure excludes joint ventures and strategic stakes.

[2]来源:Tadawul 市场报告,2018 年 5 月 31 日。这一数据不包括合资企业和战略股权。

3. The Ministry of Finance of Saudi Arabia, Budget Performance Report, 2018.

[3]沙特阿拉伯财政部二零一八年预算业绩报告。

4. Source: EFG Hermes.

[4]来源:EFG Hermes。

5. Source: Tadawul Market Report, May 31, 2018. This figure excludes joint ventures and strategic stakes.

[5]来源:Tadawul 市场报告,2018 年 5 月 31 日。这一数据不包括合资企业和战略股权。

6. Source: MSCI.

[6]来源:MSCI。

7. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-markets countries. MENA representation in the index currently includes Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[7] MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。在该指数中,中东北非股票代表目前包括卡塔尔、阿拉伯联合酋长国和埃及。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不反映任何费用、支出或销售费用。MSCI不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

8. Source: MSCI, June 2018.

[8]来源:MSCI,2018 年 6 月。

9. EFG Hermes. Estimate based on EFG Hermes data.

[9]来源:基于 EFG Hermes 数据的估计。

10. Source: Bloomberg.

[10]来源:彭博资讯。

11. Time period of December 2008 – December 2017.

[11] 2008 年 12 月 – 2017 年 12 月期间。

12. Source: EFG Hermes.

[12]EFG Hermes。

13 Source: Morgan Stanley Research, August 2014. Countries include the 20 market promotions to MSCI EM status since 1994, including: Colombia, India, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka, Venezuela, Israel, Poland, South Africa, China, Czech, Hungary, Taiwan, Russia, Malaysia, Egypt, Morocco, Greece, UAE and Qatar.

[13]来源:摩根士丹利研究,2014 年 8 月。自 1994 年起,升级到 MSCI EM 地位的 20 个国家/地区包括:哥伦比亚、印度、巴基斯坦、秘鲁、斯里兰卡、委内瑞拉、以色列、波兰、南非、中国、捷克、匈牙利、中国台湾地区、俄罗斯、马来西亚、埃及、摩洛哥、希腊、UAE 和卡塔尔。

14. Past performance does not guarantee future results.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-markets countries. MENA representation in the index currently includes Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[14] 过往表现并非未来业绩的保证。

MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。在该指数中,中东北非股票代表目前包括卡塔尔、阿拉伯联合酋长国和埃及。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不反映任何费用、支出或销售费用。MSCI不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

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