阿根廷的崛起
Argentina Emerges
2182字
2019-12-10 09:37
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火星译客

While Argentina's economy has faced some challenges of late, some good news came this month for investors when index provider MSCI announced the country would be upgraded to emerging-market status. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity's Santiago Petri—who is based in Argentina—weighs in on the situation there.

尽管阿根廷经济近来面临一些挑战,但投资者本月仍收获了一则好消息,即指数提供商摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)宣布将该国评级升级为新兴市场国家。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队阿根廷分部的圣地亚哥·佩特里分析了个中形势。

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

Inclusion of Argentina into MSCI's Emerging Markets (EM) Index came as a bit of a surprise to some market observers given its recent struggles—including a sharp selloff in its currency and a US$50 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

此时将阿根廷纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数,这对一些市场观察者来说有点出人意料,阿根廷近期麻烦不断——其货币遭大幅抛售,国际货币基金组织(IMF)提供 500 亿美元贷款。

MSCI stated that the decision came on the heels of international institutional investor confidence in the country's ability to maintain current equity market accessibility conditions, which is an important factor of MSCI's classification framework. However, MSCI noted that in light of recent events impacting Argentina's foreign exchange situation, it would review its reclassification decision should authorities there introduce any sort of market accessibility restrictions, such as capital or foreign exchange controls.

MSCI 表示,此决定基于国际机构投资者对该国维持当前股市准入条件能力的信心,而这是 MSCI 分类框架的重要因素。然而,MSCI 指出,鉴于近期影响阿根廷外汇形势的事件,它将复核此次重新分类的决定,以确定政府是否会引入任何市场准入限制,例如资本或外汇管制。

Notwithstanding any changes, the emerging-market upgrade is set to become effective beginning in mid-2019. Accordingly, Argentinian stocks will be added to MSCI's Emerging Markets Index.

尽管可能会有变化,但此次新兴市场升级将在二零一九年中期开始生效。相应地,阿根廷股票将被纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数中。

This isn't Argentina's first foray into the emerging-market universe—the country had been downgraded from emerging-market to frontier-market status in 2009.

这并非阿根廷首次进入新兴市场领域——该国在二零零九年由新兴市场降级为前沿市场。

The decision is likely to attract capital flows from both active and passive investors that follow not only the MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark, but also the MSCI Latin America benchmark. It is estimated that approximately US 1.5-$1.9 trillion in assets under management (AUM) are tracking the MSCI EM Index, representing a significant pool of potential foreign flows into the country.1

这一决定可能会吸引跟踪 MSCI 新兴市场基准与 MSCI 拉丁美洲基准的主动和被动投资者的资金流入。据估计,约 1.5 至1.9 万亿美元的管理资产正密切跟踪 MSCI 新兴市场指数,是该国一个潜在且规模可观的外资流入来源。[1]

Depending on the country weighting assigned to Argentina, which some estimate would be between 0.4%-0.5% of the index, this could imply between US $1.5-$1.9 billion of passive inflows and up to US $1.6 billion of inflows from actively managed strategies.2

这取决于分配给阿根廷的国家权重,估计将在 0.4% 至 0.5% 间,这可能意味着 15-19 亿美元的被动资金流入和高达 16 亿美元的主动管理策略基金的流入。[2]

However, if Argentina is assigned a weighting by MSCI in the lower range of estimates, there is also the potential that the current estimated exposure to Argentina from active managers of approximately 0.4% will not be increased significantly.

然而,如果阿根廷获 MSCI 分配的权重在较低的预计范围内,那么也可能现在预测的约0.4% 的主动投资管理人持仓水平将不会显著提升。

Reasons for Cautious Optimism

谨慎乐观的理由

President Mauricio Macri's administration, which came to power in late 2015, had to deal with several complex issues, such as an oversized government sector, which at the national and sub-national level comprised 42% of gross domestic product (GDP)—almost double that of 26% of GDP in 2002—combined with a dual exchange rate regime supported by capital controls. At the same time, the federal government was still in default with some of its creditors, limiting its access to the international capital markets.

二零一五年底上台执政的毛里西奥·马克里政府必须处理好几个复杂的问题,如政府板块肿胀,在全国和亚国家层面上占国内生产总值(GDP)的 42%——与二零零二年的占比 26% 几乎翻了一倍——还有由资本管制支持的双重汇率制度。与此同时,联邦政府仍与部分债权人违约,限制了其进入国际资本市场的机会。

The Argentinian economy was seen as over-regulated and faced several constraints in key segments such as in the energy industry. The country, which was a net-exporter of oil and gas a decade ago, had to rely on expensive imports to supply its domestic needs. As a consequence of these impairments, per-capita income had barely grown since 2011 and the economy was in stagflation.

阿根廷经济被视为过度监管,在能源工业等关键领域面临着多方面的限制。十年前这个国家是石油和天然气净出口国,不得不依靠昂贵的进口产品来满足国内需求。由于这些掣肘,其人均收入自二零一一年来几乎没有增长,经济处于滞胀状态。

President Macri's team was able to swiftly solve many of these constraints, liberalizing capital controls, reestablishing the relationship with its creditors and implementing market-based rules to normalize over-regulated segments like the energy industry. At the same time, the government undertook an ambitious reconstruction program in infrastructure to support domestic economic activity until a proper market-based economy could recover by itself. It is worth mentioning that transparency would be one of the distinctive features of Macri´s government, enabling it to achieve sensible savings in public works when compared with previous governments.

通过放开资本管制,重建与债权人的关系,实施市场化的规则,规范能源行业等受过度监管的部门,马克里总统团队迅速地解决了许多棘手的问题。与此同时,政府进行了一项雄心勃勃的基础设施重建计划,以支持国内经济发展,建立一个合理、具备自愈能力的市场经济。值得一提的是,马克里政府的显著特征之一是其高透明度,和以前的政府相比,它能在公共工程中省下一笔可观的成本。

Given other pending issues, such as the size of government and its fiscal deficit, Macri undertook a more gradual adjustment process. The delicate economic situation combined with a minority position in Congress made Macri opt on a strategy of relying on international capital markets to finance a transition that would reduce the relative size of government, with economic growth over time. This strategy was not exempt from risks.

鉴于其他悬而未决的问题,如政府规模和财政赤字,马克里采取了更渐进的调整方式。微妙的经济形势加上在国会中的少数地位,马克里选择依靠国际资本市场的策略,借助外国资本力量以支持过渡,假以时日,这将减少政府规模在经济增长中的相对占比。这一策略并非是零风险的。

After successful mid-term elections, the government launched a moderate package of reforms that sought to balance the fiscal needs with social tolerance. Still, the program relied on external financing.

中期选举成功后,政府推出了一系列温和的改革方案,以期在财政需求与社会容忍度之间达到平衡。该方案仍需依赖外部融资。

In our view, two politically driven events began to undermine market's confidence on the sustainability of policies: a) the central bank was suggested to re-calibrate its restrictive monetary policy at a time when the economy was having a very acceptable rate of growth; and b) members of the ruling governmental coalition had objections on the pace of utility rates adjustments, which was one of the most clear fiscal adjustment policies the Macri administration undertook. This, combined with a more negative international environment and a tightening of 10-year interest rates, in addition to the implementation of a new tax on financial income, triggered a run on the Argentinian peso. There was also a flight from both fixed income and equities. The end result was an IMF request for a financial assistance package.

在我们看来,有两个政治驱动的事件开始削弱市场对政策可持续性的信心:(a)在经济正以喜人速率增长时,央行建议重新调整其限制性货币政策;(b)阿根廷执政政府联盟成员反对公用事业费率调整节奏,而这是马克里政府最明确的财政调整政策之一。再者,由于国际环境更加消极、十年期利率紧缩、新的财务收入税收制度的实施,引发了对阿根廷比索的挤兑。其中也有资本逃离固定收益和股票。最终结果即是向国际货币基金组织提出财政援助要求。

The meaningful assistance package under a Stand-by Agreement for US $50 billion (1,100% the quota of Argentina) revealed the international support to the normalization of the Macri government's market-oriented policies. Nevertheless, the Argentine government has also committed to an ambitious fiscal normalization path, which is not exempt of implementation challenges, particularly in an electoral year. Argentina holds presidential elections in 2019.

根据两方达成的待用资金安排协议,国际货币基金组织将为阿根廷提供 500 亿美元(1,100%阿根廷配额)援助,这一重大援助计划揭示了马克里政府市场化政策正常化获得了国际支持。尽管如此,阿根廷政府也进行了大刀阔斧的财政正常化改革,这在实施上,尤其是在选举年,绝非易事。阿根廷将在二零一九年举行总统选举。

The government's committed policies reinforce and accelerate what the Macri administration has been implementing since it took office. The government has pledged a balanced budget by 2020. We are confident that President Macri will be successful in striking agreements with the more constructive opposition parties, since it is also in their interest that rational policies prevail, at risk of losing themselves ground to more radical opposition alternatives.

政府的重点政策巩固和加速了马克里政府自上任以来一直推行的政策。政府承诺二零二零年达成更为平衡的预算。我们相信,马克里总统将成功地与更具建设性的反对党达成协议,因为广泛施行理性政策也同样符合他们的利益,但也承担着败给更激进的反对派提案的风险。

The financial stress resulted in the revision of some of the normalization policies, such as the liberalization of energy generation prices, which were deregulated late last year. We believe that this is consistent with the extraordinary event that afflicted the financial variables, but we are confident that the government will resume its market-oriented approach, as soon as the variables are contained.

财政压力导致了部分正常化政策的修订,例如能源发电价格自由化,其于去年年底被解除管制。我们相信,这与影响金融变量的异常事件一致,但一旦变量可控,政府将恢复市场主导的方式。

Argentina has also committed to allow its central bank to focus primarily on the management of its monetary policy. It has appointed valuable talent who will likely continue to build upon the policies their also proficient outgoing staff have implemented.

阿根廷还决心允许其央行主要关注货币政策管理,并已任命出色人才,他们可能将延续其同样优秀、即将离任的同事所实施的政策。

We think Argentina has significant potential to capitalize on both its physical and human capital, which will allow it to regain a leading regional role the country enjoyed in the past.

我们认为,阿根廷有着非凡潜能,充分利用有形和人力资本,这将使它重获该国在过去所享有的区域领先地位。

Market Liquidity

市场流动性

Argentina's equity market is still small compared to its emerging-market peers, so there has been some concern about a potential large increase in investor flows.

与其他新兴市场相比,阿根廷的股票市场仍很小,人们对投资者是否能大幅流入有一些担忧。

It is true that the Argentine market could be considered as having lower turnover than other countries currently classified as emerging markets. However, this can be explained in part by the fact that the market has been inaccessible to international investors for a considerable period of time.

诚然,与目前被列为新兴市场的其他国家相比,阿根廷市场的换手率更低。然而,这一点部分源于国际投资者在相当长的一段时间内都无法进入该市场。

At first, MSCI will include only NYSE-listed American depositary receipts (ADRs) of Argentinian companies in its emerging-markets index. MSCI stated it will be constantly monitoring daily turnover to incorporate locally listed Argentine names into the index when liquidity improves.

首先,MSCI 此次将阿根廷纳入新兴市场指数,对象仅限于在纽交所上市的阿根廷企业,如美国存托凭证。MSCI 表示,它将不断监测每日换手率,如果流动性提高,将考虑是否将本地上市企业纳入指数。

As the market is integrated into the emerging-market universe, we expect this situation to likely be reversed. The market's liquidity profile should improve and align with other emerging market countries. At the same time, pursuant to the recently enacted Amendments to the Capital Markets Act, Argentina's government has been actively working to foster the development of capital markets, which will allow companies to seek financing in the equity markets and should increase the number of listed companies, providing additional depth to the market.

随着阿根廷市场融入新兴市场,我们预计这种情况可能会有好转。市场的流动性应会提升,与其他新兴市场国家保持一致。同时,依照最近颁布的《资本市场法》修正案,阿根廷政府一直在积极促进资本市场发展,将允许企业在证券市场寻求融资,并增加上市公司数量,为市场提供更多深度。

Given the expected assigned weighting to Argentina in the Emerging Markets Index of between 0.4%–0.5%, we do not believe the amount of potential foreign flows will likely be disruptive to the market. So, liquidity is not a concern to us at this time.

新兴市场指数中给阿根廷的预期分配权重将在 0.4% 至 0.5% 之间,因此我们认为,潜在的外资流入不会是井喷式的。因而,流动性问题并非我们的燃眉之急。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

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1. Source: MSCI, as of December 31, 2017, as reported on March 31, 2018 by eVestment, Morningstar and Bloomberg. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-markets countries. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[1]资料来源:MSCI,截至二零一七年十二月三十一日,由 eVestment、晨星与彭博资讯报告于二零一八年三月三十一日。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不反映任何费用、支出或销售费用。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何 MSCI 数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

2. Sources J.P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[2]资料来源:J.P. 摩根、美林证券。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

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