对部分新兴市场国家的看法
Views on Select Emerging-Market Countries
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2019-12-09 11:33
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In light of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso currency drops, fears of emerging-market (EM) contagion appear to be on the rise, and various EM currencies have been under pressure. Here, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity provides perspective on some of the impacted countries in the headlines recently: Argentina, Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia. In the team's view, current EM weakness in select countries is not likely to result in macroeconomic contagion or broader asset-class crises.

鉴于土耳其里拉和阿根廷比索汇率下跌,对新兴市场危机的担忧似乎正在上升,各种新兴市场货币也面临压力。在此,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队对近期新闻头条披露的一些受影响的国家发表了看法:阿根廷、土耳其、南非和印度尼西亚。该团队认为,部分国家目前出现的新兴市场疲软不太可能导致宏观经济危机蔓延或更广泛的资产类别危机。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German, Italian, Spanish, Polish

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity 

富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队

We think it is important for investors to take note that emerging markets are not homogeneous, and the countries that currently dominate the headlines represent a very small part of the EM universe. For example, more than 20 companies in the MSCI EM Index1 are individually larger than the entirety of the Turkish stock market. So these countries' travails are not representative of the broader EM asset class.

我们认为,重要的是投资者要注意到,新兴市场并非同质,而目前占据新闻头条的国家只占新兴市场的很小一部分。例如,在 MSCI 新兴市场指数[1] 中,超过 20 家公司的个体权重超过了整个土耳其股市。因此,这些国家的困境并不代表更广泛的新兴市场资产类别。

Overall, we still have a constructive view on EM countries—most of which appear to be operating in an environment where economic growth is improving, commodity prices are stable, currencies in general are undervalued, and inflation is under control.  The recent volatility allows us, as stock pickers, to identify fundamentally strong companies and invest at attractive valuations.

总的来说,我们对新兴市场国家仍持积极看法,其中大部分国家似乎处于经济增长改善、商品价格稳定、一般货币被低估和通胀得到控制的环境中发展。最近的波动让我们作为选股人能够识别出基本面强劲的公司,并以具吸引力的估值进行投资。

Argentina

阿根廷

Since mid-August, there have been renewed attacks on the Argentine peso, and inflation expectations rose. This has prompted the government to formulate more aggressive fiscal policies, which have so far been met with skepticism by the market. In our view, the financial program committed by the Argentine government is demanding, particularly when facing a presidential election in 2019. But the incumbent administration has a strong commitment to follow through, and Argentina continues to have support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the international community. However, significant political uncertainties remain leading up to the presidential elections in 2019, and the current economic contraction is expected to continue for several months at least.

自八月中旬以来,阿根廷比索再次受到重创,通胀预期上升。这促使阿根廷政府制定更为激进的财政政策,迄今为止市场对此一直持怀疑态度。我们认为,阿根廷政府的财政计划要求很高,尤其是在二零一九年总统大选的时候。但是,现届政府坚定承诺要坚持下去,且阿根廷继续得到国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 和国际社会的支持。然而,在二零一九年总统选举之前,仍存在重大的政治不确定性,而当前的经济萎缩预期至少会持续几个月。

We are closely monitoring the sustainability of the administration's policies and the country's economic recovery prospects. Given the current volatility and uncertainty, we currently favor companies with US dollar-linked revenues.

我们正在密切关注阿根廷政府政策的可持续性和该国的经济复苏前景。鉴于目前的波动性和不确定性,我们目前青睐于收益与美元挂钩的公司。

Turkey

土耳其

We remain cautious in Turkey. Political and institutional uncertainties, a structurally weak current-account position, higher oil prices, a sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira and high double-digit inflation amid a challenging geopolitical environment, have all dampened investors' confidence. After years of strong economic growth, an economic slowdown was a risk before the recent volatility, which is now being exacerbated.

我们对土耳其仍持谨慎态度。政治和制度上的不确定性、结构性疲弱的经常项目状况、较高的油价、土耳其里拉的大幅贬值以及在具有挑战性的地缘政治环境下的高两位数通胀,均打击了投资者的信心。在经历了多年的强劲经济增长之后,经济放缓是近期波动之前的风险因素,而这种波动目前正在加剧。

South Africa

南非

While the South African rand has experienced some selloff due to higher EM risk-aversion, we believe that it is primarily a function of the rand being among the more liquid bellwether EM currencies. Domestically, South Africa has a generally positive political environment given the new president's business-centric approach, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to recover from the weaker first half of the year, due to stronger agricultural output, consumer spending and construction.2

尽管新兴市场避险情绪高涨,南非兰特因此遭遇了一些抛售,但我们认为,这主要是兰特的一个功能,即成为流动性较强的新兴市场货币风向标之一。在国内,鉴于新总统推行以商业为中心的方法,南非的政治环境总体上是积极的,而由于农业产出、消费支出和建筑业走强,国内生产总值 (GDP) 的增长预计将从今年上半年较弱的情况下复苏。2

We expect the rand to recover once risk-aversion abates and domestic growth improves, and we are monitoring the consumer sectors accordingly.

我们预计,一旦风险厌恶情绪消退和国内经济增长改善,兰特将会复苏,而我们也在密切关注消费行业。

Indonesia

印度尼西亚

In Indonesia, the rupiah fell to its weakest level in more than 20 years, partly due to its widening current account deficit. Bank Indonesia has ramped up efforts to stabilize the currency through direct market intervention, which has included four interest-rate hikes since May 2018. While the government has announced new regulations including higher import taxes for non-essential consumer goods in order to reduce the current account deficit. In the meantime, we believe companies that are highly leveraged on US dollar (USD) debt would be impacted most, alongside with those with high imported cost components, including pharmaceuticals, poultry and select consumer names. On the flip side, a weak rupiah would benefit companies with USD (or linked) revenue such as coal, metals and other export-oriented sectors.

在印度尼西亚,印尼盾跌至二十多年来的最低水平,部分原因是其经常项目赤字不断扩大。印尼央行已加大努力,通过直接市场干预来稳定货币汇率,其中包括自二零一八年五月以来的四次加息。该国政府也已经宣布了新的规定,包括提高非必需消费品的进口关税,以减少经常项目赤字。与此同时,我们认为,那些对美元债务高度杠杆化的公司和拥有进口成本较高产品的公司会受到最大影响,,包括制药、家禽和部分消费品。另一方面,疲软的印尼盾将使拥有美元(或与之挂钩的)收入的企业受益,比如煤炭、金属和其他出口导向型行业。

We believe the country's fundamentals to be largely intact. Indonesia has demonstrated continued resilience to external shocks, benefiting from ongoing reforms over the last decade that have sought to balance its growth drivers and accelerate domestic development.

我们认为,该国的基本面很大程度上未受影响。受益于过去十年的持续改革,印尼已展示出对外部冲击的持续韧性,这些改革寻求平衡其增长推动力,并加速国内发展。

We are finding potential investment opportunities in many sectors that could benefit from existing demographics and expected reforms. These include banks, which lend to both fast-growing corporations and provide mortgages, credit cards and other retail banking products to consumers, and companies in the consumer, resources and infrastructure-related sectors.

我们目前在许多行业寻找潜在的投资机会,而这些行业可能从现有的人口结构和预期改革中受益。其中包括向快速增长的公司提供贷款、向消费者提供抵押贷款、信用卡和其他零售银行产品的银行,以及消费者、资源和基础设施相关行业中的公司。

Our Bottom Line

我们的底线

In assessing the current state of EM equity, it should be noted that emerging markets consist of diverse countries with different economic growth drivers and varying levels of political risk. We believe the risk of broader EM contagion is limited, and current EM weaknesses in select countries are not likely to result in macroeconomic contagion or broader asset-class crises.

在评估新兴市场股票的现状时,应当注意到,新兴市场由不同的国家组成,各国的经济增长推动因素和政治风险水平各不相同。我们认为,更广泛的新兴市场危机蔓延风险是有限的,而当前某些新兴市场国家的疲弱,不太可能导致宏观经济危机蔓延或更广泛的资产类别危机。

While there are certainly specific EM countries with challenged fundamentals that are perhaps skewing overall perceptions, the EM asset class as a whole remains in good health, in our view.

当然,有一些特定的新兴市场国家的基本面受到挑战,这可能会扭曲整体看法,但在我们看来,新兴市场资产类别总体上仍处于良好状态。

The case for emerging markets equities continues to be supported by a constructive global macro backdrop, higher GDP growth and improving economic fundamentals on the back of ongoing reforms. Cash-flow generation has accelerated considerably in recent years, which, when paired with better capital allocation discipline, can help improve long-term return potential to shareholders and typically results in corporate balance sheet deleveraging. Finally, earnings growth across EM companies has been resilient, while valuations have become cheaper during this period of market volatility.

新兴市场股市继续得到有建设性的全球宏观经济背景的支持,在持续改革的助益下,GDP 增长加快,经济基本面得到改善。近年来,现金流的增长速度显著加快,与更好的资本配置原则相结合,有助于提高股东的长期回报潜力,并通常促使企业资产负债表去杠杆化。最后,新兴市场企业的盈利增长一直保持弹性,而在这段市场波动期间,估值已变得更低。

Our key EM investment themes include the structural growth in the technology sector, rising consumption and economic reforms. We remain focused on selecting fundamentally strong companies that we believe should be well-positioned to capitalize on these secular trends, based on our assessments.

我们的关键新兴市场投资主题包括科技行业的结构性增长、消费增长和经济改革。我们仍然专注于选择那些我们认为应在我们评估基础上充分利用这些长期趋势的基本面强劲的公司。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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1. Source: FactSet as of August 31, 2018. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[1] 资料来源:FactSet,截至二零一八年八月三十一日。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中盘股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不包括手续费、支出或销售费用。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何 MSCI 数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI 并未准备或认可此报告。欲了解重要数据提供方通知和条款,请访问 www.franklintempletondatasources.com

2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2018. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[2] 资料来源:《世界经济展望》,国际货币基金组织截至2018年7月。不保证任何预测、估计或预报将会实现。

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