释放罗马尼亚的潜力
Unlocking Romania's Potential
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2019-12-09 11:16
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For nearly two years, frontier market Romania has been on index provider FTSE's watch list for a possible upgrade to emerging-market status. However, some issues remain over the market's attractiveness for foreign investors. Johan Meyer, senior vice president and CEO of Franklin Templeton Investment Management Ltd UK, Bucharest Branch, shares what he thinks it could take for Romania to make the cut.

指数编制机构 FTSE 将前沿市场罗马尼亚纳入待升级为新兴市场的观察名单已近两年。然而,该市场对外国投资者的吸引力仍有不足。富兰克林邓普顿投资管理有限公司(英国)驻布加勒斯特分公司高级副总裁和首席执行官约翰·迈耶分享了他认为罗马尼亚可采取的措施。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German

这篇文章也有中文(简体),德文版

In recent years, Romania's economy has been one of the fastest growing in Europe, with strong domestic consumption, low unemployment and fiscal stimulus acting as drivers.

近年来,在强劲的国内消费、低失业率和财政刺激措施的推动下,罗马尼亚成为了欧洲经济增长最快的国家之一。

Its economic progress has helped spur a burgeoning middle class, with increased consumer demand not only for goods but also health care, technology and financial services.

它的经济进步催生了一大批新生的中产阶级,与日俱增的消费需求不仅体现在商品方面,也体现在医疗、科技和金融服务领域。

Given progress in a number of areas, Romania has been on the cusp of gaining emerging-market status since September 2016, when it was included in FTSE's “watch list” for reclassification to secondary emerging-market status.

鉴于在许多领域的进步,罗马尼亚于二零一六年九月被纳入 FTSE 的“观察名单”,被重新归类为次级新兴市场状态。自那时以来,罗马尼亚一直站在进入新兴市场的门槛上。

According to the index provider, Romania meets eight out of nine of its “Quality of Markets” criteria. The main hurdle Romania has to clear before joining the ranks of emerging markets is an improvement in the liquidity of stocks listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB).1

在该指数编制机构看来,罗马尼亚已经符合其“市场质量”九大标准中的八项。而罗马尼亚在加入新兴市场行列之前还需要清除一大障碍,那就是需要改善布加勒斯特证券交易所(BVB)上市股票的流动性。1

It is unlikely for this to happen before the next FTSE classification review, due in September 2018. However, we think more initial public offerings (IPOs) could offer a solution to Romania's liquidity challenge. Large listings—namely privatizations of state-owned enterprises—should help drive investment flows to the overall market. A larger number of sizable companies could improve the visibility of the BVB among investors, and may lead to higher multiples being paid for the shares of these companies, provided that the interest of minority shareholders are safeguarded through the implementation of corporate governance standards in line with international best practice.

下一次 FTSE 分类审查将于二零一八年九月进行,要在那时之前做到这一点,不太可能。但是,我们认为,更多的首次公开募股(IPO)可以为罗马尼亚的流动性挑战提供解决方案。大型企业上市 – 即国有企业的私有化 – 应有助于推动整个市场的投资流动。更多的大规模企业可提高 BVB 在投资者中的知名度,并为这些企业的股票带来更高的倍数,前提是少数股东权益通过实施符合国际最佳实践的企业治理标准得到充分保障。

Growth Outstrips Europe

增长跑赢欧洲

In 2017, Romania's economy grew by 7%,6 outstripping European Union (EU) gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.4% for the same period.7

2017 年,罗马尼亚经济增长了 7%,6 超过了欧盟(EU)2.4% 的同期国内生产总值(GDP)增长率。7

Even though Romania's GDP growth is projected to slow down in 2018 to 4.1%, according to the European Commission forecast, growth is still projected8 to outpace many of its regional neighbors. This is one reason we believe this frontier market's future remains promising,9 as long as Romania stays firmly committed to the values of the EU: rule of law and free-market principles.

根据欧盟委员会的预测,尽管罗马尼亚的 GDP 增长率预计将在 2018 年放缓至 4.1%,但仍8将超过许多区域邻国。这是我们认为这个前沿市场的未来仍然充满希望的原因之一,9只要罗马尼亚继续坚定地践行欧盟价值观:法治与自由市场原则。

Several factors have contributed to Romania's growth in recent years, including the elimination of several taxes, a reduction in the value-added tax rate and higher consumption driven by record low unemployment, as well as an increase in general salary levels and pensions. However, the latter's benefits are already beginning to fade, while putting pressure on the state budget. Inflation has been steadily rising since the beginning of 2018, reaching a current level of 4.9%, but it is expected to moderate in Q4 2018.10

近几年,数个因素驱动着罗马尼亚的经济增长,包括取消若干税种,降低增值税税率,由历史新低的失业率带来的更高消费,以及一般工资水平和养老金的提高。然而,后者带来的好处已经开始消退,同时给国家预算带来压力。自二零一八年初以来,通货膨胀一直在稳步上升,目前达到 4.9% 的水平,但预计二零一八年第四季度将会较为平缓。10

Romania has generally seen lower tax revenue than its regional peers in recent years, so there is scope for continued improvement and reform in this area, including collections, which could improve its fiscal standing.

近年来,罗马尼亚的税收收入普遍低于区域邻国,因此该领域以及税款征收方面存在后续改进和改革的余地,这会改善其财政状况。

Meanwhile, economic fundamentals currently appear strong. Romania's unemployment rate hit a 25-year low this year and stood at 4.6% in May.11 Interest rates have edged up this year but also remain low, with the central bank's benchmark interest rate currently at 2.5%. The level of the country's public debt, 34.4% of GDP,12 is among the lowest among EU countries.

与此同时,经济基本面目前看起来很强劲。罗马尼亚今年的失业率创下二十五年以来的新低,五月份为 4.6%。11本年度利率小幅上升但也保持低位,央行的基准利率目前为 2.5%。该国的公共债务占 GDP 的 34.4%,12该比例是欧盟国家中最低的。

Also, the country boasts several fast-growing sectors that present potential investment opportunities such as health care, technology, infrastructure, agriculture and financials.

此外,该国几个快速增长的行业也展现出了潜在的投资机会,如医疗、科技、基础设施、农业和金融。

More recently, however, Romania has experienced higher political volatility, reflected in numerous government reshuffles and legislative changes taking place at an alarming rate, addressing crime, the economy and fiscal issues. These developments raise question marks among investors and international institutions, for which a stable and predictable legal framework is crucial.

然而,最近罗马尼亚经历了较大的政治波动。为了整顿犯罪、经济和财政问题,政府进行了多次改组,立法变动的频率也颇为惊人。这些变动引起了投资者和国际机构的疑虑,对他们来说,稳定和可预测的法律框架至关重要。

Also, as FTSE has noted, liquidity levels on its national bourse remain a concern.

此外,正如 FTSE 指出,该国证券交易所的流动性水平仍然令人担忧。

While there currently are 87 companies listed on the BVB, the MSCI Romania Index currently houses just five constituents.13 Listings in Romania has been slower than some other countries in Eastern Europe but in 2017 there were four new listings of private companies on the BVB, including the largest IPO of a private company in its history.14

虽然目前有八十七家企业于 BVB 上市,但 MSCI 罗马尼亚指数目前仅包括五家企业。13罗马尼亚的上市速度慢于东欧其他一些国家,但于二零一七年,BVB 有四家新的私营企业上市,其中包括其史上最大的一次私营企业 IPO。14

And, while private IPOs alone cannot support Romania's emerging-market pursuit, we believe the IPOs of larger state-owned enterprises could bolster its chances of being upgraded.

仅靠私营企业 IPO 无法支撑起罗马尼亚的新兴市场之路,我们认为,大型国有企业 IPO 可支撑其完成升级转型。

However, the process of listing stakes of state-owned enterprises has been put on hold for more than four years—in our view, resuming this process is critical for the future development of the Romanian capital market.

然而,国有企业股权的上市进程已被搁置四年多 – 我们认为,恢复这一进程对于罗马尼亚资本市场的未来发展至关重要。

Improved Corporate Governance

企业治理改善

Equally essential is maintaining and properly implementing the current legislation on corporate governance, especially for state-owned enterprises. Improved corporate governance could also provide the Romanian government with cash for other investment projects, such as tackling the country's infrastructure deficit.

维持并根据现行法律妥善实施企业治理也同样重要,特别是对国有企业而言。企业治理的改善还可为罗马尼亚政府提供其他投资项目的资金,例如,解决该国的基础设施赤字问题。

From our on-the-ground experience, we think improved corporate governance could also raise the profile of the BVB for foreign investors. In our view, a stable, predictable and transparent regulatory framework is critical for fostering and promoting investor interest in Romania. At a moment when the economy is slowing down, we believe the country's credibility among investors and international financial institutions should be a priority for the political leadership.

根据我们的一线经验,企业治理的改善也可提升 BVB 在外国投资者心中的形象。我们认为,稳定、可预测和透明的监管框架对于培养和促进投资者对罗马尼亚的兴趣至关重要。在经济放缓的当下,我们认为,该国在投资者和国际金融机构中的信誉应成为政治领导层重点考虑的事项。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The information provided in this material is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice, and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region market or investment. 

文中的评论、意见及分析均为个人观点,仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐买入、卖出或持有任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。文中提供的信息都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区市场或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

1. Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2018.

1.资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》,二零一八年四月。

2. Ibid.

2. 出处同上。

3. There is no assurance that any projection, estimate or forecast will be realized.

3. 不保证任何预测、估计或预报将会实现。

4. Ibid.

4. 出处同上。

5. Source: National Bank of Romania inflation forecast, data as of May 2018.

5.资料来源:罗马尼亚国家银行通胀预测,数据截至二零一八年五月。

6. Source: Romania National Institute of Statistics, data as of May 2018.

6.资料来源:罗马尼亚国家统计局,数据截至二零一八年五月。

7. Source: Eurostat, data as of July 2018.

7.资料来源:欧盟统计局,数据截至二零一八年七月。

8. Sources: Bucharest Stock Exchange, MSCI, as of July 2018. The MSCI Romania Index measures the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the Romanian equity market. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges.

8.资料来源:布加勒斯特证券交易所,MSCI,数据截至二零一八年七月。MSCI 罗马尼亚指数衡量罗马尼亚股票市场中大型股的表现。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不反映费用、开支或认购费。

9. Source: Bucharest Stock Exchange press release, January 11, 2018.

9.资料来源:布加勒斯特证券交易所新闻稿,二零一八年一月十一日。

10. Source: FTSE Country Classification, March 2018.

10.资料来源:FTSE 国家分类,二零一八年三月。

11. Source: OECD, “The OECD and South East Europe.”

11.资料来源:经合组织,“经合组织和东南欧”。

12. Source: European Parliament, Romania's General Transport Master Plan and Rail System, June 2015.

12.资料来源:欧洲议会,罗马尼亚的一般运输总体规划和铁路系统,二零一五年六月。

13. Source: Romania Tourism.

13.资料来源:罗马尼亚旅游局。

14. Ibid.

14.出处同上。

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