关于货币、贸易和其他问题
Of Currencies, Trade and Other Clouds
1925字
2019-12-09 10:35
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火星译客

Emerging markets have struggled in the first half of this year amid a storm of uncertainties. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity's Chetan Sehgal examines issues that have acted as clouds on the asset class—including a stronger US dollar and trade skirmishes—and highlights some positive longer-term fundamentals. He thinks some of the concerns are overblown.

受诸多不确定因素的影响,新兴市场在今年上半年遭遇危机。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的切坦•塞加尔研究了美元走强和贸易摩擦等问题对这一资产类别所造成的影响,并强调了一些积极的较长期基本面因素。他认为部分担忧并没必要。

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、荷兰语、法语、德语、意大利语、波兰语版

After a strong couple of years, emerging markets overall have struggled in the first half of 2018. Investors have focused on negative factors, particularly rising US interest rates, US dollar strength and trade concerns. However, we think some of these fears are overblown.

经历过数年强劲增长后,新兴市场在二零一八年上半年整体陷入危机。投资者重点关注了美国利率上升、美元走强和贸易摩擦等负面因素。但我们认为其中一些问题被夸大了。

We recognize that a backdrop of rising US interest rates and a strengthening US dollar—while reflective of a strong US economy—can impact emerging markets. While a strong US economy is good news for the global economy (including emerging markets), higher interest rates can make it costly for borrowers to service their external debt. So, local currencies can—and have—come into pressure as servicing dollar-denominated debt becomes more difficult. Capital flows have reversed out of what's perceived to be “riskier” markets. We have seen a flight of capital out of emerging-market equities this year, and some currencies have weakened to the point where they appear to be quite undervalued right now relative to the US dollar. We don't think markets are reflecting the positive fundamentals we see.

我们发现,美国利率上升和美元走强的背景既能反映美国经济的强劲势头,也会影响新兴市场。虽然强劲的美国经济对全球经济(包括新兴市场)来说是利好消息,但利率上升会导致借款人偿还外债的成本升高。因此,以美元计算的债务偿还难度加大,当地货币或已处于压力之下。资金流方向逆转并流出被认为“风险较高”的市场。今年,我们目睹了新兴市场股票的资金流失,以及部分货币贬值到了相对美元的价值被大幅低估的程度。我们认为市场并没有反映出我们看到的积极基本面。

Certain countries with strained finances continue to attract the bulk of headlines, but it is worth noting their relatively small size in the context of the broader emerging-market asset class, as well as the extent to which their fundamentals are weaker. For example, Turkey represents only 2% of MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Pakistan 0.5%, and Argentina is not even in the index yet.1

某些财政紧张的国家继续受到大量新闻头条的关注,但值得注意的是,在更广泛的新兴市场资产类别中,这些市场的规模相对非常小,其基本面也较弱,其。例如,土耳其在 MSCI 新兴市场指数仅占 2%,巴基斯坦仅 占0.5%,阿根廷甚至尚未进入该指数。[1]

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Looking Back—and Ahead

回顾过去、展望未来

Markets are forward-looking, and we have found that when it comes to emerging markets, they tend to overshoot to the downside. We saw this occur in 2013, when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it would be “tapering” its quantitative easing program and then in 2015 when it began to tighten. Sentiment toward emerging markets was negative. While it's true that some economies were vulnerable, in some cases, the markets were pricing in crises-type levels. The currencies became undervalued, and when a crisis didn't occur, we saw a rebound.  Short-term risk aversion and a slight upward move in interest-rate expectations have contributed to recent dollar strength, but it remains to be seen if this is sustained.

市场具有前瞻性,我们发现涉及新兴市场的市场反应往往趋向于下行过度。我们曾在二零一三年目睹过这样的情形,当时美联储 (Fed) 宣布将要“削减”其量化宽松计划,然后在二零一五年开始收紧。投资者对新兴市场的看法趋于消极。某些经济体的确颇为脆弱,但在某些情况下市场会按危机类型进行定价。货币价值被低估,在危机实际并未发生的情况下,我们看到了反弹。短期避险和预期利率小幅上升导致了近期的美元升值,但这一趋势能否持续还有待观察。

In addition to interest rates and the dollar, this year we've seen concerns about the impact of US tariffs spook investors. While the focus has been on US tariffs, the reality is that trade between regional emerging-market partners has been rising and increasingly driving growth.

除利率和美元之外,今年我们还看到了对美国关税影响的关切令投资者不安的状况。虽然关注点是美国关税,但现实是区域新兴市场伙伴之间的贸易一直处于增长态势,并日益推动经济增长。

China has been the target of a host of US tariffs but has become a large counterweight to the United States in terms of volume and value of trade across Asia and across emerging markets as a whole. China is the largest export market for a host of countries and has been looking to strengthen trade relationships outside the United States. In reaction to US tariffs, China has reduced or eliminated a number or tariffs on imported goods from several countries in the region, including South Korea, India, Bangladesh, Laos and South Korea, which could help those countries endure the current US trade skirmish.

中国一直是美国大量关税的目标,但就整个亚洲和新兴市场贸易的数量和价值而言,中国已成为美国的重要制衡者。作为多个国家的最大出口市场,中国一直在寻求加强美国以外的贸易关系。作为对美国关税的回应,中国已降低或取消了亚洲几个国家的进口商品的关税,包括韩国、印度、孟加拉国、老挝和韩国,此举或能帮助这些国家应对当前的美国贸易摩擦。

Taking a Longer-Term View

长远观点

In the United States, recent tax cuts have helped drive growth in the economy and asset prices—but have also contributed to inflation fears and rising interest rates. It's important to note that the US tax cuts are deficit-funded, which should place downward pressure on the US dollar over the longer term.

美国近期的减税政策推动了经济增长和资产价格上涨,但也引发了通胀担忧和利率上升。值得注意的是,美国的减税措施是由赤字支持的,这将对美元构成长期下行压力。

我们认为有充分理由继续看好总体新兴市场。

We see plenty of reasons to be optimistic about emerging markets overall.

我们认为有充分理由继续看好总体新兴市场。

  • Gross domestic product growth for emerging markets has outpaced that of developed markets overall for many years and we don't see signs of that trend changing.
  • Cash-flow generation has accelerated considerably, which, when paired with improved capital allocation discipline, is improving returns to shareholders and supporting corporate balance sheet deleveraging.
  • Earnings growth likewise has been resilient—and without tax cuts temporarily boosting the numbers as per the United States. We have seen a secular shift towards more domestic drivers such as technology and consumerism in emerging markets. Despite this good news, stock valuations have become even cheaper.
  • We've also seen improvements in current account deficits in many emerging markets, in aggregate in surplus, which is a huge shift since the 2013 “taper tantrum.”
  • The preponderance of debt stock in emerging markets is now actually in local currency rather than US dollars, which is a major change versus previous decades. Paired with floating exchange rate regimes, this lessens the negative impact of rising US rates.
  • 新兴市场的国内生产总值增长率已超过已发展市场多年,我们尚未发现该趋势有变化的迹象。
  • 现金流的产生显著加快,当与更优的资本配置方式结合时,可提高股东回报率,并有助于企业资产负债表去杠杆化。
  • 盈利增长同样具有复原能力 – 比如美国不靠减税政策暂时提高了经济数字。在新兴市场中,我们看到了技术和消费主义等更多国内驱动因素所带来的长期转变。尽管有这样的好消息,股票估值却变得更低了。
  • 我们也看到许多新兴市场的经常账户赤字有所改善,总体处于盈余状态,这是自二零一三年“削减恐慌”以来的巨大转变。
  • 新兴市场债务股的优势是以当地货币而非美元计算,这是与过去几十年相比的重大变化。此举与浮动汇率制度相结合,减少了美国利率上升的负面影响。

So, while the markets may be pricing in fear and uncertainty, many emerging economies appear to us to be in much better shape than they were during other corrective periods.

因此,尽管市场定价可能要面对担忧和不确定性,但我们认为许多新兴经济体的状况似乎比其他纠正期好很多。

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Asymmetric Market Reaction to Trade Disputes

贸易争端的不对称市场反应

Whether you label it a trade war or not, we have seen a very asymmetric market reaction to the US tariffs and counter-tariffs announced this year involving China and other countries. Generally, in the post-WWII era, the market consensus has been that free trade is good for all parties (at a macro level); both sides benefit. So, conversely, a trade war would mean both sides lose.

无论你是否认为这是一场贸易战,我们都看到市场对美国今年公布的涉及中国和其他国家的关税和反关税的反应是非常不对称的。一般来说,二战后的共识是自由贸易在宏观层面对各方都有利,双赢互惠。因此,反过来,贸易战意味着两败俱伤。

However, the way the market has been reacting suggests a trade war between the United States and China would be negative for China but has virtually no impact on the United States. At least, that's the conclusion one might draw from looking at the divergence in terms of equity market performance and the currency values of the two countries.

然而,市场反应表明美国和中国之间的贸易战将对中国不利,但对美国几乎没有影响。至少,从股市表现和两国货币价值的差异来看,我们可以得出这样的结论。

It's important to recognize that while the offshoring of production and supply chains by technology giants contributes to the trade deficit, that cheaper offshore production is a primary driver of their high margins, boosting aggregate US corporate earnings. There are benefits as well as costs.

重要的是要认识到,尽管技术巨头的生产和供应链外包导致了贸易赤字,但廉价的离岸生产是其高额利润的主要驱动因素,从而推动了美国企业的总收益。既有利益,也有代价。

When we look at the valuations of Chinese companies and examine the underlying strength in the Chinese economy, we see the recent pullback as an opportunity to pick up bargains. While we recognize there are issues, the government's reform efforts there continue. Leaders have announced measures to stimulate growth, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending. We think markets are pricing an excessively negative outcome both specific to China but also more generally towards emerging markets when it comes to trade frictions.

当我们研究中国企业的估值和中国经济的潜在实力时,我们认为近期的回落是一个物美价廉的投资机会。当我们发现问题时,政府仍在继续推动改革。领导人宣布了刺激经济增长的措施,包括减税和基建支出。我们认为,在贸易摩擦问题上,市场正在为中国以及新兴市场更为普遍的负面结果定价。

We expect the second half of 2018 to likely be stronger for a number of reasons. We think the passing of the summer risk-off period could bring improved investor sentiment. Other seasonal factors include potential increased consumer spending for events heading into year-end such as China's Singles Day and US Black Friday, and holidays globally such as Thanksgiving, Diwali and Christmas. Additionally, China's car sales typically peak towards December as factories shutter to reduce winter pollution.

我们有诸多的理由来期待二零一八年下半年的市场回温。我们认为夏季避险期结束后,投资者的情绪会有所改善。其他季节性因素包括消费者在即将到来的年终活动(如中国的“光棍节”和美国的“黑色星期五”)以及全球假日(如感恩节、排灯节和圣诞节)中的潜在消费增加。此外,因工厂为减少冬季污染而关闭,中国的汽车销量通常在十二月达到顶峰。

While this whole discussion has been on macro factors, our approach as investors is more bottom-up than top-down. That is, whether it's China or anywhere else, we look for quality companies that we think can navigate any economic environment.

尽管整个讨论都基于宏观因素,但我们作为投资者,更多采用自下而上而非自上而下的方法。也就是说,无论在中国或其他地方,我们都在寻找能够在任何经济环境中发展的优质企业。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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1. Source: The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[1] MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI 并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

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