八月回顾与展望:在波动中寻求机会
August Recap and Outlook: Finding Opportunities in Volatility
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2019-12-08 13:27
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Market volatility marked the month of August, with sharp declines in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso souring investor sentiment for emerging markets overall. Manraj Sekhon, CIO of Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, and Chetan Sehgal, senior managing director and director of portfolio management, present the team's overview of the emerging-markets universe in August and why they don't see the asset class heading for a severe crisis.

八月的市场波动显著,土耳其里拉和阿根廷比索的汇率大幅下跌,使投资者对整体新兴市场的情绪恶化。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队首席投资官曼拉杰·塞克宏与高级董事总经理兼投资组合管理团队总监切坦·塞加尔阐述了团队对八月新兴市场的总体看法,以及为何他们不认为该资产类别正走向一场严重危机。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German, Italian, Spanish, Polish

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

Three Things We're Thinking about Today

今天我们思考的三件事

  1. Sharp falls in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso stoked contagion concerns, knocking emerging-market (EM) currencies and equities in August. We believe the asset class is far from experiencing a severe crisis. Turkey makes up just a small part of the EM universe; within the MSCI Emerging Markets Index there are more than 20 companies whose individual weightings are larger than Turkey's as a whole.1 Argentina is not in the index, but when it's included in 2019, its weighting is expected to be even smaller than Turkey's. Ultimately, emerging markets are a group of diverse countries with markedly different economic and political climates. While sensational headlines often cause indiscriminate selling across emerging markets, we can use this opportunity to invest in fundamentally sound companies at what we consider to be attractive valuations.
  2. Shares in several online gaming companies came under pressure as regulators in China announced the possibility of limiting the number of new games, as well as the number of hours children spend on these games. An ongoing suspension in new game approvals—the result of a restructuring in government agencies—weighed on the industry. We maintain a positive view on the industry as we believe underlying fundamentals remain solid. We expect select companies to benefit from increased monetization of existing popular games and continued growth in other businesses, including digital content and online advertising.
  3. Comprising more than 20,000 companies with an aggregate market capitalization of more than US$5 trillion and daily turnover of about US$40 billion,2 we believe the EM small-cap asset class offers investors the potential for a significant opportunity. EM small caps are more likely to be driven by domestic demand, favorable demographics, local reform initiatives and innovative niche products. In our view, EM small caps offer attractive risk/return attributes in the current global economic environment, as exposure to the EM small-cap space typically complements exposure to the EM large-cap space, particularly in areas such as health care and consumerism. Moreover, given the size of the investment universe, EM small caps have generally limited research coverage, often resulting in mispriced stocks and providing active investors with attractive investment prospects.
  1. 土耳其里拉和阿根廷比索的急剧下跌激起了危机蔓延的担忧,打击了八月新兴市场的货币和股票。我们认为,该资产类别离经历严重危机还很远。土耳其在新兴市场中仅占一小部分;在摩根士丹利新兴市场指数中,有超过 20 家公司的个体权重大于整个土耳其。[1] 阿根廷目前不在指数中,但即使它在二零一九年被纳入指数后,其权重估计甚至比土耳其还要小。新兴市场基本上是由一群经济和政治气候截然不同的多元化国家组成。尽管轰动的头条新闻往往会导致新兴市场出现滥售,但我们可以利用这个机会,以我们认为具有吸引力的估值投资于基本面良好的公司。
  2. 一些在线游戏公司的股价受到了压力,因为中国的监管机构宣布可能限制新游戏数量、以及儿童的游戏时间。由于政府机构重组,新游戏批准继续暂缓,对该行业造成了压力。我们对这个行业持积极态度,因为我们相信基本面基础依然稳固。我们期望部分公司能从增加现有流行游戏的货币化和其他业务的持续增长中获益,包括数字内容和在线广告。
  3. 新兴市场小盘股包含超过 20,000 家企业,总市值超过 5 万亿美元,日均交易额约为 400 亿美元,[2]我们认为,该资产类别为投资者提供了一个潜在的巨大机遇。新兴市场小盘股更有可能受本国国内需求、有利的人口环境、地方改革举措和创新利基产品的推动。在当前的全球经济环境下,新兴市场小盘股提供了具有吸引力的风险/回报属性,因为对新兴市场小盘股的敞口通常是新兴市场大盘股的补充,尤其是在医疗保健和消费等领域。此外,考虑到投资领域的规模,新兴市场小盘股的研究覆盖范围通常有限,往往导致股票定价有误,并为活跃的投资者提供有吸引力的投资前景。

Outlook

展望

Macroeconomic factors—including mounting global trade tensions, a stronger US dollar and rising interest rates—have been primary contributors to market volatility this year. During such periods, EM equities generally face heightened risk aversion and indiscriminate selling, often at the expense of solid fundamentals. As long-term investors, we attempt to look past short-term market turbulence to identify long-term value in EM equities.

宏观经济因素,包括日益加剧的全球贸易紧张局势、美元走强和利率上升,是今年市场波动的主要因素。在此期间,新兴市场股票一般面临更高的风险规避和滥售行为,通常以坚实的基本面为代价。作为长期投资者,我们试图通过观察短期市场动荡来确定新兴市场股票的长期价值。

It is also important to note that the EM asset class is not homogeneous. As stock pickers, we can choose among the varied opportunities that emerging markets offer to build well-diversified portfolios that seek to avoid excessive risks. Overall, we still have a constructive view on emerging markets, which are operating in an environment of improving economic growth and stable commodity prices. EM currencies in general are undervalued, in our opinion.

同样需要注意的是,新兴市场资产类别并非同质。作为选股人,我们可以在新兴市场提供的各种机会中做出选择,以建立多样化的投资组合,避免过度风险。总的来说,我们对新兴市场仍持积极看法,这些市场在经济增长和商品价格稳定的环境下发展。在我们看来,新兴市场货币总体上被低估了。

Accordingly, we believe the contagion impact upon the broader EM asset class should be limited, given most countries have more robust institutions, orthodox economic policy, stronger finances, lower inflation and lower near-term financing requirements.

因此,我们认为,鉴于大多数国家拥有更健全的机构、正统的经济政策、更强劲的财政、更低的通胀和短期融资要求,这种蔓延对更广泛的新兴市场资产类别的影响应该是有限的。

Emerging Markets Key Trends and Developments

新兴市场重大趋势及发展

EM equities retreated in August as uneven progress in trade talks and country-specific challenges weighed on the asset class. Turkey, Argentina and Brazil confronted steep drops in their currencies and stocks amid economic and political uncertainty. Conversely, developed-market equities advanced. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.7% over the month, compared with a 1.3% gain in the MSCI World Index, both in US dollars.3

因贸易谈判的进展不平衡和国家特有的挑战拖累了这一资产类别,新兴市场股票在八月份出现回落。在经济和政治不确定性的背景下,土耳其、阿根廷和巴西的货币和股市大幅下跌。相反,发达市场股市走高。本月,MSCI 新兴市场指数下跌 2.7%,而 MSCI 世界指数小幅上升 1.3%,两者均以美元计算。[3]

The Most Important Moves in Emerging Markets in August

新兴市场八月大事记

  • Asian equities fell, hampered by declines in Pakistan and China. In Pakistan, a newly elected government grappled with the country's massive current account deficit and potential need for an international bailout. China's trade row with the United States deepened as both countries imposed fresh tariffs on each other's goods and flagged more duties ahead. The trade tensions added to concerns around China's deleveraging campaign and weaker-than-expected economic data. Conversely, stocks in the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea stood out. The Philippine central bank unveiled its largest interest-rate hike since 2008 to tackle rising domestic inflation.
  • Latin American markets beat a collective retreat, with stocks in Brazil, Chile and Peru leading the way down. Brazil's second-quarter economic growth was subdued as a nationwide truckers' strike hit businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, political uncertainty heightened ahead of a general election in October as jailed ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remained popular in polls. Peru's economy grew less than expected in June, though its expansion in the second quarter as a whole was robust. Mexican equities fell the least within the region. Investor sentiment was cushioned by Mexico's new trade deal with the United States as both countries worked on revising the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
  • Emerging European equities lost ground as Turkey's economic and political challenges gripped markets. The United States raised tariffs on metals from Turkey amid deteriorating bilateral relations, fueling anxieties about structural weakness in the Turkish economy. The lira slumped, leading to a double-digit slide in Turkish equities. Greek and Russian stocks also declined. The United States announced new sanctions on Russia, triggering weakness in the ruble. In contrast, stocks in Hungary and Poland gained. Hungary's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter. South Africa's stock market fell as the rand lost value, largely due to broad caution toward emerging markets and concerns around South Africa's proposed land reform.
  • Frontier markets declined, faring worse than their EM counterparts. Argentina was the region's weakest performer as the peso tumbled. The government approached the International Monetary Fund for an early release of bailout funds, while the central bank hiked its key interest rate to 60% to shore up the currency. Stocks in Lebanon and Nigeria also pulled back. Nigeria's economic growth slowed in the second quarter as oil production declined. However, Oman, Bangladesh and Romania bucked the downtrend. Oman's budget deficit fell sharply in the first half of the year as oil and gas revenues surged.
  • 受巴基斯坦和中国股市下跌的影响,亚洲股市下跌。巴基斯坦方面,新当选的政府正在努力应对该国巨大的经常账户赤字和可能需要国际纾困的问题。中国与美国的贸易争端加深,因为两国对彼此的商品征收了新关税,并提前宣布了更多的关税。贸易紧张加剧了人们对中国去杠杆化行动和低于预期的经济数据的担忧。相反,菲律宾、泰国和韩国的股市表现突出。菲律宾央行公布了自二零零八年以来最大的利率上调,以应对不断上升的国内通胀。
  • 拉丁美洲市场遭遇集体下跌,巴西、智利和秘鲁的股市领跌。巴西第二季度的经济增长受到抑制,因为全国范围内的卡车司机罢/工打击了企业和消费者。与此同时,在十月份大选之前,政治不确定性加剧,因为被监禁的前总统 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 在民意调查中仍然很受欢迎。今年六月,秘鲁经济增长低于预期,尽管其在第二季度的整体扩张势头强劲。墨西哥股市在该地区跌幅最小。墨西哥与美国达成的新贸易协议缓解了投资者的情绪,因为两国都致力于修订《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)。
  • 随着土耳其在经济和政治方面的挑战影响市场,新兴欧洲股市失去了根基。在双边关系不断恶化的情况下,美国提高了对土耳其金属的关税,加剧了人们对土耳其经济结构疲弱的担忧。里拉汇率下跌,导致土耳其股市出现两位数的下滑。希腊和俄罗斯股市也出现下跌。美国宣布对俄罗斯实施新的制裁,引发卢布疲软。相反,匈牙利和波兰的股市上涨。匈牙利第二季度的经济增长速度快于预期。随着兰特贬值,南非股市下跌,很大程度上是由于人们对新兴市场的广泛警惕,以及对南非提议的土地改革的担忧。
  • 前缘市场下跌,比新兴市场股市表现更差。随着比索贬值,阿根廷是该地区表现最差的国家。该国政府与国际货币基金组织接洽,要求其尽早发放救助资金,而中央银行则将其关键利率提高至 60%,以支撑货币。黎巴嫩和尼日利亚的股市也有所回落。由于石油产量下降,尼日利亚第二季度的经济增长放缓。然而,阿曼、孟加拉国和罗马尼亚却逆势而上。随着石油和天然气收入飙升,阿曼的预算赤字在今年上半年大幅下降。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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1. Source: FactSet, as of August 31, 2018. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[1]资料来源:FactSet,截至二零一八年八月三十一日。欲获得更多数据提供者的资料,敬请浏览网站 www.franklintempletondatasources.com

2. Source: Bloomberg, as of August 31, 2018.

[2] 资料来源:彭博资讯,截至二零一八年八月三十一日。

3. Source: MSCI. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance.

[3]资料来源:MSCI。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中盘股代表。MSCI 全球市场指数采集了 23 个已发展市场中的大中型股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何 MSCI 数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI 并未准备或认可此报告。欲了解重要数据提供方通知和条款,请访问 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

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