巴西当选总统博尔索纳罗将会采取的下一步举措是什么?
What’s Next for President-Elect Bolsonaro in Brazil?
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2019-12-08 12:44
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Jair Bolsonaro emerged victorious in Brazil's presidential election, an outcome that markets had largely priced in, according to Frederico Sampaio, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity Brazil. He says Bolsonaro now has his work cut out for him in addressing an economic recession, closing a fiscal deficit and stamping out corruption.

根据富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场巴西股票公司的首席投资官 弗雷德里克•桑帕约的观点,贾伊尔·博尔索纳罗赢得巴西总统大选的胜利,这一结果很大程度上已在市场价格中体现出来。他表示,博尔索纳罗现在在应对经济衰退、缩小财政赤字,以及遏制腐败方面有他要做的工作。

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、西班牙文

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、西班牙文版

The Brazilian stock market's rise after the first-round election results—even in the middle of a profit-taking environment in the US markets—reflected investors' optimism about a more market-friendly policy approach should Jair Bolsonaro be elected as president.

第一轮选举结果公布后,尽管是在美国市场获利回吐的环境下,巴西股价逆市上涨,这反映出投资者对贾伊尔·博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)当选总统后的市场友好政策持乐观态度。

Now confirmed as the winner, Bolsonaro faces the task of turning Brazil's economy around and restoring confidence. Apparently, voters felt it was time for a dramatic change.

现在可以确定,博尔索纳罗已经胜出,面临着扭转巴西经济并恢复信心的艰巨任务。显然,选民认为进行重大变革的时机已然来临。

To voters, Bolsonaro's rival, Fernando Haddad, ultimately represented a continuation of prior policies that led to mismanagement of the economy, including a large fiscal deficit. While Haddad's Workers Party was linked to corruption scandals, Bolsonaro grew in popularity in part as a result of his anticorruption rhetoric.

对选民而言,博尔索纳罗的竞争对手费尔南多·哈达德(Fernando Haddad)最终代表着先前政策的延续,而这些政策导致了经济管理不善,比如巨额财政赤字等。尽管哈达德所代表的劳工党被卷入腐败丑闻,但博尔索纳罗呼声越来越高的部分原因却在于其反腐言论。

The Brazilian people have expressed their wishes for change and reform by choosing Bolsonaro, whose Social Liberal Party was largely unknown before.

巴西人民选择博尔索纳罗,表达了对变革和改革的愿望,而此前,博尔索纳罗所代表的社会自由党基本不为人所知。

Bolsonaro gained some additional credence with his pick for finance minister, renowned liberal economist Paulo Guedes, who is a graduate of the University of Chicago. Guedes' speeches have been in line with a more pro-business, market-friendly approach. He has spoken about the need to privatize, aggressively reduce the fiscal deficit and improve efficiency of the economy.

博尔索纳罗任命毕业于芝加哥大学的著名自由派经济学家保罗·格德斯(Paulo Guedes)担任财政部长,为其赢得更多的信任。格德斯的表态反映其持有更亲商、更市场友好的政策。他曾谈及私有化的必要性、积极减少财政赤字,以及提高经济效率。

That type of messaging is what the market wanted to hear, and Brazil's equity benchmark, the Ibovespa, began to rally when the polls started to indicate Bolsonaro was ahead.

这类消息正是市场所希望听到的,当民意调查显示博尔索纳罗领先时,巴西股票基准股指 Ibovespa 开始反弹。

Looking forward, we think the local scenario should be extremely positive for earnings growth and for the Brazilian equity market generally. The new composition of Brazil's Congress—with conservative members gaining representation—should provide him a reasonable base to secure approval of the measures he pledged, including privatizations and reforms.

展望未来,当地环境对于盈利增长以及巴西股市整体而言具有非常积极的作用。保守派成员获得代表席位后新组成的巴西国会应为其提供合理的基础,以确保他所承诺的举措获得批准,包括私有化和改革。

Now that the political uncertainty is settling, we think the risk of a U-turn in the actual conservative economic policy represented by the Workers Party, which had dominated Brazilian politics for many years, will be removed. We think there should be a more positive climate where consumer and business confidence can pick up again and lead to an acceleration in domestic economic activity.

既然政治方面的不确定性已经解决,我们有理由认为,多年来一直主导巴西政坛的劳工党所代表的实际保守派经济政策发生反转的风险将会解除。我们认为,应该有一个更加积极的氛围,消费者和企业信心可以重新回暖,并促进国内经济活动的加速。

The local market is trading at what we view as reasonable price-earnings levels and should have more scope for improvement as the economic situation improves, though much of the positive news has been priced in. After a recession which saw Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) growth decline more than 3% in 2015 as well as in 2016, we think there is a large margin of spare capacity to accelerate growth without inflationary pressures.

当地市场正以我们认为合理的市盈率水平进行交易,随着经济形势的好转,应该会有更大的改善空间,尽管很多利好消息已在市场价格中有所体现。巴西二零一五年和二零一六年的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率下降 3% 以上,在经历这一经济衰退之后,我们认为在没有通胀压力的情况下,会有大量闲置产能加速增长。

When confidence is restored, we think there is a lot of room for upward GDP growth.

我们认为在信心恢复之后,巴西 GDP 会有很大的增长空间。

A Big Challenge for Brazil: Pension Reform

巴西面临重大挑战:养老金改革

We see pension reform as the biggest challenge or economic worry for investors. Brazil has one of the most generous pension systems in the world, particularly for public employees, who can retire below the age of 60 and can collect nearly their end-of-career full salary. Outgoing President Michel Temer tried to pass reform, but didn't have the ideal political conditions to do so.

我们认为,养老金改革是投资者面临的最大挑战或经济担忧。巴西拥有世界上最慷慨的养老金体系之一,特别是对于公务员而言,可以在 60 岁之前退休,而且几乎可以领到职业生涯结束时的全薪。即将离任的总统特梅尔(Michel Temer)努力通过改革提案,但缺乏理想的政治条件。

Wages and pensions account for a large part of government spending, and pensions are adjusted by the minimum wage, leading to an increasing spending as a percentage of the country's GDP. So, the reality is that the retirement age probably has to be increased and the generous public employees' conditions should be revised.

工资和养老金占政府支出的很大一部分,养老金根据最低工资进行调整,导致支出增加,占巴西 GDP 的百分比持续高企。因此,现实情况便是,可能需要提高退休年龄,并对慷慨的公务员养老政策进行调整。

The market expects pension reform to pass under the next president. Bolsonaro has talked about this, but as they say, the devil is in the details, and for now, we don't have many. The good news is that the elections saw a larger contingency of his supporters represented both in governorships and in Congress, so he should have the ability to gain support to make changes. Brazil's parliament will now be more conservative than the prior one, which should help reforms pass, including more privatizations. Maybe not the state-owned oil company, Petrobras, but other smaller companies will likely be targets.

市场预计,养老金改革方案有望在下届总统任期内通过。博尔索纳罗已经谈到这一问题,正如他们所说,细节决定成败,但迄今为止,我们知之甚少。好消息是,在选举中,他的支持者在州长和国会方面均表现出较大的偶然性,因此他应该能够获得支持来实施变革。巴西议会现在比前一届更加保守,这将有助于改革,包括推行更多的私有化。也许不会是巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)这类国有石油公司,但其他小企业可能会成为目标。

And as noted, Guedes has championed fighting the deficit, improving the efficiency of the state-owned companies and lowering corporate taxes.

如前所述,格德斯一直提倡削减赤字,提高国有企业效率,降低企业税。

Wider Global Implications

更广泛的全球影响

While the media has portrayed Bolsonaro as an extreme right-wing candidate because of some of his social policies, the left-wing Workers Party, which dominated Brazilian politics, was more aligned with dictatorships in Latin America, a policy dubbed “South-South Cooperation.” That policy didn't prove fruitful for Brazil.

由于博尔索纳罗的一些社会政策,媒体将其描绘为极右翼候选人,而主导巴西政治的左翼劳工党更倾向于拉丁美洲的独裁政权,这项政策被称为“南南合作”。这一政策并没有给巴西带来成效。

Bolsonaro has stated a desire to visit Israel and the United States as his first two trips outside the country. He wants to increase trade, reduce import taxes and open up the economy. He wants to open up trade with the United States and with Europe, which is a contrast to prior administrations that lost out in terms of global trade as a result.

博尔索纳罗表示,希望他上任后的前两次出访国家是以色列和美国。他希望增加贸易、减少进口税,并放开经济。他希望与美国和欧洲开展贸易往来,这与此前因全球贸易导致失败的政府形成鲜明对比。

I'm optimistic about Brazil's prospects considering the state of the economy and the market, but we shall have to wait and see whether Bolsonaro's campaign promises actually become policy. He has not historically voted for conservative economic measures during his terms as congressman and hasn't been tested yet, so there is still some uncertainty. But in our view, Brazil has a lot of upside potential.

鉴于巴西的经济和市场状况,我对巴西的前景持乐观态度,但我们必须拭目以待,看看博尔索纳罗的竞选承诺是否能够真正成为政策。在他担任国会议员期间,从未投票支持过保守的经济措施,也没有接受过考验,因此仍存在一些不确定性。但我们认为,巴西拥有很大的上行空间。

We will probably see a bit of a honeymoon phase until the end of the year as Bolsonaro lays out his plans and makes appointments. Next year, it's all about implementation, and we'll be watching.

我们可能会看到一段蜜月期,博尔索纳罗将于年底/制定出自己的计划并做出任命。这些政策将于明年实施,我们会持续关注。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

本文的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。该材料不作为有关任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略任何重大事件的完整分析。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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