中国的贸易战略正转向邻国
Chinese Trade Strategy Turns Toward Neighbors
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2019-12-07 23:34
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火星译客

Emerging markets have felt the backlash of investor sentiment amid the continuing trade spat between the United States and China, that escalated for months before a recent truce. However, Chetan Sehgal, senior managing director, director of portfolio management, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, feels the response has been excessive and might pose opportunities for investors. In the first of this three-part series, “The Impact of US Policy on Emerging Markets,” Chetan explains why the United States' influence over emerging markets could be fading.

美中两国的贸易争端已持续数月不断升级,最近刚刚迎来停战,而新兴市场已经感受到投资者情绪的强烈抵/制。然而,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票投资组合管理高级董事总经理切坦•塞加尔认为这种反应是过度的,可能为投资者带来机会。本文是由三篇文章组成的系列“美国政策对新兴市场的影响”的第一篇,切坦解释了为什么美国对新兴市场的影响力可能正在减弱。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文版

Arguably the biggest reason for the pullback in emerging-market equities has been due to the trade spat between the United States and China. But we think the market reaction has been excessive. While it's certainly hard to predict how things could play out, in light of the recent G20 meeting and talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, there seems to be a sense there could be more negotiations and perhaps a more conciliatory tone going forward.

可以说,新兴市场股市回落的最大原因是美国和中国之间的贸易争端。但我们认为市场反应是过度的。虽然很难预测事情会如何发展,但鉴于最近的 G20 会议以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与中国国家主席习近平之间的会谈,看起来将来可能会有更多的谈判以及更温和的基调。

In fact, rising US protectionism could act as a spur to some developing economies and encourage more regional trade agreements between emerging markets.

事实上,不断上升的美国保护主义可能会刺激一些发展中经济体,并鼓励新兴市场之间达成更多区域贸易协定。

We believe China has a pivotal role to play in that development.

我们相信中国在这一发展中可以发挥关键作用。

United States' Diminishing Influence over Emerging Markets

美国对新兴市场的影响减弱

Over the course of the last decade, China has replaced the United States as the largest export destination for emerging markets as a whole.

在过去十年中,中国取代美国成为整体新兴市场的最大出口目的地。

But the evolving trade relationship isn't just one-way. China has usurped the United States as the top exporter to Brazil and Thailand. It has also replaced Japan as the top exporter to Indonesia.

但贸易关系的发展不仅仅是单向的。中国取代了美国成为巴西和泰国的最大出口国。它还取代了日本成为印度尼西亚的最大出口国。

China's economy has shifted to become more consumer-driven. We believe this shift can pave the way for other emerging-market economies to thrive and lead investors to gain more confidence in emerging markets.

中国转向了以消费者为导向的经济。我们认为,这种转变可以为其他新兴市场经济体的发展铺平道路,并引导投资者对新兴市场获得更多信心。

A large and wealthy population of consumers drives China's massive domestic economy. We expect to see growth in the aspirational demand for higher-value consumer products—a phenomenon known as “premiumization.”

人口众多而富裕的消费人群推动着中国庞大的国内经济。我们预计对高价值消费产品的期望需求将会增长 – 这种现象被称为“高端化”。

Demand for high-end items such as designer handbags and furniture, high-end cars and fine dining have soared, to such an extent that China now reinforces controls over personal imports of luxury items from returning Chinese citizens from overseas. China has become the world's second-largest consumer market.

对设计师品牌手袋和家具、高端汽车和高档餐厅等高端产品的需求飙升,以至于中国现在加强了对海外归国中国公民的个人携带奢侈品入关的控制。中国已成为世界第二大消费市场。

The demand for goods and services among Chinese consumers continues to accelerate on the back of rising household incomes, creating opportunities for consumer-related businesses. We believe consumption could be an increasingly important growth driver in China and other emerging-market economies.

在家庭收入增加的背景下,中国消费者对商品和服务的需求持续加速,为消费者相关业务创造了机会。我们认为消费可能成为中国和其他新兴市场经济体日益重要的增长动力。

Future Leaders in Emerging-Market Growth

新兴市场增长的未来领导者

We are confident that the current environment could benefit the growth of technology manufacturing in emerging markets outside of China.

我们相信,目前的环境可能有利于中国以外新兴市场的技术制造业的发展。

In the last six years, China has slowly shifted away from manufacturing products for export. Policies unveiled at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012 were designed to help steer the economy away from manufacturing into a consumption- and service-driven model.

在过去六年中,中国已逐渐从制造出口产品转型。二零一二年中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会上公布的政策旨在将经济重点从制造转向“消费和服务”驱动模式。

We think Vietnam and Malaysia could potentially benefit from this situation. Both countries already have transportation infrastructure in place, which in turn helps develop logistics and shipping networks to support regional or international trade. In comparison to China, Vietnam and Malaysia, which tend to have cheaper production costs and labor, could stand to take a bigger share of the manufacturing market.

我们认为越南和马来西亚可能从这种情况中受益。这两个国家已有现成的运输基础设施,这将有助于发展物流和航运网络,以支持区域或国际贸易。与中国相比,越南和马来西亚的生产成本和劳动力成本更低,可能会占据制造业市场的更大份额。

Major electronics companies already have a large presence in Malaysia and we'd expect exports of electronic integrated circuits, liquefied natural gas and communication apparatus to potentially increase.

一些大型电子公司已在马来西亚拥有大量业务,我们预计电子集成电路、液化天然气和通信设备的出口可能会增加。

China has also taken a step away from manufacturing garments for export. Again, the United States' imposition of tariffs on Chinese garments could create significant opportunities for lower-cost manufacturers like India and Vietnam. Garment production chains in these countries already include major international retail fashion brands.

中国也逐渐脱离了制造出口服装的领域。美国对中国服装征收关税可能再次为印度和越南等低成本制造商带来重大机遇。这些国家的服装生产链已经涵盖了主要的国际零售时尚品牌。

As the largest emerging market, how China fares amid a new era of trade and manufacturing could have profound implications for other emerging markets and for the global economy at large. The structural case for emerging markets still centers on further growth, demographics and the ability to take a larger market share of global manufacturing, which in our view makes up one of the elements that could allow other emerging-market economies to ride out and potentially thrive during this period.

作为最大的新兴市场,中国在贸易和制造业的新时代如何发展,可能对其他新兴市场和全球经济产生深远影响。新兴市场的结构性事实仍然集中在进一步增长、人口统计数据以及在全球制造业中占据更大市场份额的能力,我们认为这些因素使得其他新兴市场经济体能够走出去,并可能在此期间茁壮成长。

In our next post in this series on “The Impact of US Policy on Emerging Markets,” Chetan explains why the rising US dollar should have less impact on emerging markets than some might expect.

在“美国政策对新兴市场的影响”系列的下一篇文章中,切坦解释了为什么美元升值对新兴市场的影响要小于预期。

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Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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Important Legal Information

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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