2020年的辍学者来了
Here come the 2020 dropouts
1098字
2019-12-09 23:02
63阅读
火星译客

(CNN)In less than 48 hours earlier this week, three Democratic presidential candidates ended their bids.

(CNN报道)在这周不到48小时的时候,三民民主党候选人结束了竞选。

The big news was the departure of California Sen. Kamala Harris, who at one point was seen as having a real chance at the nomination. But Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak also got out of the race Sunday and Monday.

最大的新闻是加利福尼亚的参议员卡马拉-哈里斯的离职,他被一度认为最具有获得真正提名的参议员。但是蒙大拿州州长史蒂夫-布洛克和前宾西法利亚州众译员乔-塞斯塔克也在周日和周一退出了竞选。

That sort of rapid winnowing of the field will begin to be the rule, not the exception, as we draw within a few months of the first votes of the 2020 race. We're getting very close to the point where some of the candidates in hopes of having that One Big Moment will need to look at themselves in the mirror and admit that it just ain't happening.

这种快速筛选将成为规则而不是例外,我们会在几个月后抽签决定在2020年的第一轮投票。我们已经非常接近这个点,那就是希望有些候选者可以看看镜子里的自己然后承认这不可能。

When does that moment come for the 15 men and women still running for the Democratic presidential nominee? It sort of depends on each individual. But the deadline to make the next debate is on December 12 -- and only six people have currently qualified. For the nine who haven't made it, a group that includes well-known figures like New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro, missing the debate could be that look-in-the-mirror moment.

对于仍在竞选民主党总统候选的15位男女中,这一时刻何时到来?这有点取决于每个人。但下一场辩论的最后期限是12月12日,目前只有六个人有资格参加。对于那些美元资格参加的人来说,参加不了辩论可能就是镜中自照的时刻。这个团体包括新泽西州参议员科里-布克和前圣安东尼奥市市长朱利-卡斯特罗等知名人物。

Below, the 10 people most likely to wind up as the Democratic nominee for president next year.

以下,是明年最有可能成为民主党总统候选人的10位候选人。

10. Julián Castro: Castro is highlighting his status as the lone Latino in the race -- hoping to make inroads with voters looking for a diverse candidate in the wake of Harris' decision to drop out. It's hard to see how Castro can make the December 19 debate, however, and without that sort of platform, how he will find a way to build the momentum he desperately needs to be relevant. (Previous ranking: Unranked)

10.卡斯特罗:卡斯特罗强调了他作为竞选中唯一的拉丁裔的地位——希望在哈里斯决定退出后能打动那些寻找多元化候选人的选民。然而,很难看出卡斯特罗如何使12月9日的辩论,如果没有这样的平台,他将怎么样去找到一种方式来建立他迫切需要的势头。(以前排名:未排名
)。

9. Tom Steyer: This businessman is probably not going to be the Democratic nominee. But he does have two things that not every candidate in the race can count on. First, Steyer's self-funding, so he's not going to run out of money. Second, he's going to be on the debate stage in December, so he can spread his message. About half the field didn't qualify. (Previous ranking: 10)

9.汤姆-斯太尔:这个商人可能不会成为民主党的提名人。但是他确实有两件事不是每个人候选人都指望的。首先是Steyer的自筹资金,所以他不会花光所有的钱。其次,他将在12月份出现在辩论台上,这样他就可以传播他的信息,大约有一般的球场不符合标准。(上次排名:10)

8. Cory Booker: Booker, like Castro, is placing a big bet on Democratic voters' desire for a diverse candidate with Harris out and all six candidates who have currently qualified for the December debate being white. "There are more billionaires in the race than there are black people," he said Thursday morning. Booker's problem is that his window of relevance is closing rapidly. Booker currently has ZERO qualifying polls required to make the next debate -- and exactly one week to get them. Which seems very unlikely. And if he can't make the debate, does he keep going or no? (Previous ranking: 8)

8.科里-布克:布克和卡斯特罗一样,在民主党选民渴望一个多元化的候选人的愿望上下了大赌注,哈里斯已经出局,目前有资格参加12月辩论的所有六位候选人都是白人。“参加竞选的亿万富翁比黑人还多,”他周四早上说。布克的问题在于,他的相关性之窗正在迅速关闭。布克目前没有进行下一场辩论所需要的任何投票——只有一周的时间。这似乎不太可能。如果他不参加辩论,他还会继续吗?(上一次排名:8)

7. Andrew Yang: Yang's support is limited, but it's a solid 2% to 3%. More important, he has shown a true ability to raise money. The problem for Yang is that he still needs one more qualifying poll for the December debate, and the debate qualification rules may only get stricter for future debates. For now, he's a niche candidate. (Previous ranking: 7)

7.杨:杨的支持率是有限的,但是只有2%到3%。更重要的是,他表现出了真正的筹资能力。对于杨来说,问题在于他仍需要为12月的辩论再进行一次 自个投票,而且在未来的辩论赛中,辩论资格规定只可能会变得更加严格。目前,他是一个合适的候选人。(上一次排名:7)

6. Michael Bloomberg: Bloomberg has spent north of $57 million of his own money on an opening round of ads aimed at introducing himself to voters in California, Texas and other large population states that are set to vote on Super Tuesday (March 3) or later that month. And if past is prologue, youtu/be.com/watch?v=ibiNEDHbQpM&amp=&feature=you/tu.be">there's a lot more money where that first installment came from. (Bloomberg is worth around $55 billion, according to Forbes.) What remains to be seen is whether Bloomberg's ads -- and the message of business competence and results -- moves voters. And we haven't seen much polling yet that answers that question conclusively. (Previous ranking: 9)

6.迈克尔-布隆伯格:布隆伯格自掏腰包花了5700万美元,开始了一轮广告宣传活动,目的是想加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和其他人口众多的州的选民介绍自己,这些州将在超级星期二(3月3日)或本月晚些时候投票。如果过去是序幕youtu/be.com/watch?v=ibiNEDHbQpM&amp=&feature=you/tu.be">there's a lot more money where that first installment came from

(据《福布斯》(Forbes)统计,彭博市值月550亿美元)布隆伯格的广告——以及商业能力和业绩的信息——能否打动选民,仍有待观察。我们还没有看到很多民意调查能够最终回答这个问题。(上一次排名:9)

5. Amy Klobuchar: There's a big jump from No. 6 to No. 5 on our list. The senior senator from Minnesota is going to be on the December debate stage, and her November debate performance was seen as a success. Klobuchar has risen to fifth place in Iowa and is a wild card in this race. She is someone who could, in theory, be acceptable to most of the party, if she caught fire. Let's not overplay though: she's polling at only about 2% to 3% nationally. (Previous ranking: 5)

10.艾米-克罗不查尔:我们排名从第六位跃升到第五位。这位来自明尼苏达州的资深译员将出现在12月的辩论你台上,她在11月的辩论表现被认为是成功的。克罗不查尔已经上升到爱荷华州的第五位,并且是这场竞选中的一个外卡。如果她着火了,理论上她可以被大多数译员接受。但是我们不要夸大其词:她在全国范围内的支持率只有2%到3%。(上一次排名:5)

4. Bernie Sanders: The Vermont senator has had a bit of a resurgence in recent weeks, taking advantage of some slippage by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The problem for Sanders is the same problem he's had since he began running for president in 2015: Can he find ways to expand his support beyond his hardco/re allies? Because we know that while Sanders may have the most ardent backers, there are simply not enough of them currently to deliver him the nomination. (Previous ranking: 4)

4.Bernie Sanders:这位福蒙特州的参议员在最近几周有限复苏,他利用了马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白-华伦的一些下滑。桑德斯面临的问题与他2015年开始竞选总统的问题一样:他能否找到办法,将自己的支持扩大到强硬盟友之外?因为我知道,尽管桑德斯可能有最热心的支持者,但目前只是没有足够的支持者为他提供提名,(上一次排名:4)

3. Elizabeth Warren: The last month has been rough on Warren. Her Iowa poll lead is gone, and she has fallen into a tie for second place nationally. There are numerous reasons for Warren's drop, including attacks on her "Medicare for All" stance. But while there's a lot that has gone poorly, don't lose sight of the topline. Warren is still well-liked by Democratic primary voters and has the most endorsements besides Biden. (Previous ranking: tie for 1)

3.伊丽莎白-华伦:上个月对Warren来说很艰难。她在荷花州的支持率领先优势以及消失,她在全国范围内已经落到了第二位。沃伦辞职的原因有很多,包括对她“全民医保”立场的攻击。但是,尽管有很多事情做的不好,但是不要忽视背线。沃伦仍然深受民主党初选选民的喜爱,而且除了拜登之外,他的支持者最多。(上一次排名:并列第一)

2. Pete Buttigieg: If the Iowa caucuses were held today, the South Bend, Indiana, mayor would win. And he'd have a pretty good chance of winning the New Hampshire primary eight days later, too. No one else in the current field can credibly make that claim. For Buttigieg, the challenge will be keeping up this momentum all the way through early February when people actually start voting. But he is very much right where he wants to be right now. (Previous ranking: 3)

2.皮特-不啻吉格:如果爱荷华州的党内预选会在今天举行,印第安纳州的南本德市将会胜出。而且他也有很大的机会在八天后赢得新罕布夏州初选。在当前领域,没有其他人可以令人信服地做出做出这样的断言。对布啻吉格来说,挑战将是保持这种势头直到二月初,那时人们才真正开始投票,但是他现在所处的位置才是他想要达到的。(上一次排名:3)

1. Joe Biden: The Biden train is on rickety tracks, but it keeps on holding on. Biden is not ahead in Iowa or New Hampshire. He does, however, hold a massive edge among black voters, which has buoyed him nationally and in South Carolina. At the same time, Biden has the most endorsements from elected officials, though most haven't endorsed anyone. That leaves Biden where he's been most of the year: a weak frontrunner. (Previous ranking: tie for 1)

1.乔-拜登:拜登的火车在摇摇欲坠的轨道上,但它仍然坚持着。拜登在爱荷华州和新罕布尔什州都没有领先。然而,他确实在黑人选民中拥有了巨大的优势,这使他在全国和南卡罗来纳州获得了支持。与此同时,拜登得到了当选官员的最多支持,尽管大多数人美元支持任何人。这时得拜登成为了今年大部分时间里的领跑者。(上一次排名:并列第一)

0 条评论
评论不能为空