中国新年:猪年的象征
Chinese New Year: Symbolism in the Year of the Pig
1181字
2019-12-07 23:03
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火星译客

On February 5, 2019, the Chinese New Year ushers in the Year of the Pig. Traditionally, the pig is the last animal represented in the 12-year Chinese astrological cycle.

2019年2月5日,中国迎来农历新年猪年。在中国传统文化中,猪是十二生肖中最后一种生肖代表。

Franklin Templeton Emerging Market Equity's Chetan Sehgal and Andrew Ness consider how the characteristics of the Chinese zodiac's pig might relate to some of the themes on emerging market investors' minds in 2019.

富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的切坦•塞加尔和安德鲁•奈斯探讨中国生肖猪的特征与新兴市场投资者在二零一九年要考虑的投资主题的相关性。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German, Italian

这篇文章也有中文(简体)、德文、意大利文版

End of the Astrological Cycle, Not the Economic Cycle

一个星命学周期即将结束,但经济周期并没有

The Year of the Pig is traditionally the last in the Chinese astrological cycle. Its arrival in 2019 coincides with concern among some observers that the current global economic cycle is coming to an end.

猪年传统上是中国星命学纪年周期的最后一年。在二零一九年到来之际,恰逢一些市场观望者担心目前的全球经济周期即将结束。

That's not our interpretation. Notwithstanding some signs of slower global growth, notably from China, we think the current cycle may have more room to run.

我们的解读并非如此。尽管有一些迹象显示全球经济增长放缓,特别是中国市场,但我们认为本轮经济周期或将面临更大的发展空间。

After years of heady growth, China now faces a mix of challenges that threaten to curb its momentum as trade tensions collide with China's efforts to restructure its economy. Amid slowing growth, we think there could be greater dispersion in corporate earnings that will ultimately sift out the winners from the losers in all markets.

中国经济历经多年的强劲增长后,因为贸易紧张局势与中国重组经济的双重压力,现面临各种挑战,有可能抑制中国经济发展势头。在经济增长放缓的背景下,我们认为企业收益可能会出现更大的分散性,最终将在所有市场中筛选出输家和赢家。

Our near-term outlook is cautious. We don't foresee a hard landing as we think China's state-directed system offers a measure of confidence in its ability to execute policies. So far, we think China has been able to balance economic growth with structural reforms.

我们对近期前景持谨慎态度。但并不认为中国会出现硬着陆,因为中国政府主导的体制可以确保其执行政策的能力,这将提振市场信心。就目前而言,我们认为中国有能力应对调结构、稳增长的市场需求。

The Pig as a Symbol of Wealth

猪是财富的象征

The expansion of the middle classes has been probably the most influential demographic change in emerging markets in recent years and has underpinned much of the growth in those economies. In 2019, we expect growing domestic consumer demand to be a contributing factor to emerging markets' resilience in the face of external headwinds.

中产阶级的扩张可能是近年来新兴市场最具影响力的人口变化,并支撑了这些经济体的大部分增长。二零一九年,我们预计不断增长的国内消费需求将成为新兴市场抵抗外部逆风的有利因素。

Growing middle-class populations and increasing affluence should continue to drive “premiumization” in the medium to long term, spurring demand for high-end products in emerging markets. That is, we believe companies with strong premium-brand positioning and superior products should see sustainable and higher-than-average industry growth levels in the years to come.

从中长期来看,不断增长的中产阶级人口和日益增长的富裕程度应该会继续推动“高端化”,刺激新兴市场对高端产品的需求。也就是说,我们认为那些拥有强势的高端品牌定位和优质产品的企业在未来几年应该会看到可持续且高于平均水平的行业增长。

Especially impressive is a new generation of mega companies that have found success through consumer-focused innovation. They are keenly attuned to the needs of a rising middle class that is eager to spend, and they are devoting their know-how to fulfil these needs. Hyper-competitive companies have leapfrogged established business models, in many cases overtaking their Western peers.

特别令人印象深刻的是通过以消费者为中心的创新取得成功的新一代大型企业。他们敏锐地感应到急于消费的新兴中产阶级的需求,并且他们正在贡献自己的专知来满足这些需求。这些极富竞争力的企业突破既定商业模式,甚至正在赶超西方同行。

An Industrious Revolution

一场勤劳的革命

Some earlier readings of the Chinese Zodiac origin story blame the pig's late place in the astrological cycle on its laziness. Today, Chinese astrologers tend to emphasize the pig's industriousness.

在一些关于中国生肖故事的早期解读中,人们将猪在十二周年循环中的靠后排位归咎于它的懒惰。如今,中国的星命学家则多倾向于强调猪的勤劳。

As we survey the investment landscape at the beginning of the Year of the Pig, the growing industriousness of emerging market companies stands out strongly.

在我们对猪年初期的投资前景进行调查时,新兴市场企业日益增长的勤奋引人注目。

Emerging-market companies have emerged as innovators in technology. In many cases, new technologies have higher adoption rates in emerging markets as no existing infrastructure is in place.

新兴市场企业已然作为创新者跻身科技领域。通常来说,新技术在新兴市场的采用率更高,因为并没有现成的基础设施。

Across various industries, China has become the innovator to watch. For instance, rapid improvements in lithium-ion battery production have helped turn the country into the world's largest electric vehicle market.

纵观各行各业,中国已成为值得关注的创新者。例如,锂电池生产的飞速变革使中国成为全球最大的电动汽车市场。

China's progress in the automobile industry is in part due to the government's drive to promote the country as the world leader in green energy. In 2017, the Chinese government pledged to invest US$360 billion in renewable energy by 2020 while scrapping plans to build coal-fired power plants.

中国在汽车工业方面的进步,一方面归功于中国政府致力于成为绿色能源的世界领导者。二零一七年,中国政府承诺到二零二零年在可再生能源领域投资 3600 亿美元,同时取消建设燃煤发电厂的计划。

Since then, Chinese authorities have already exceeded official targets for clean energy sources. In our view, the country's focus on tackling pollution, by creating the next generation of smart cars, also plays into China's broader strategy in becoming a leader in innovation.

自那以后,中国政府已经远远超过清洁能源的官方目标。在我们看来,中国把重心放在通过制造下一代智能汽车来解决污染问题,也符合中国成为创新领导者的宏观战略。

In China's pharmaceutical industry, government policies favoring the development of novel drugs over generics have encouraged local companies to scale up research and development expenditures. This could sow the seed for a pipeline of groundbreaking treatments from Chinese drug makers.

在制药行业,中国政府的政策倾向于开发新药而不是仿制药,这也激励着国内企业扩大研发支出。将为中国制药商的突破性医疗产业线播下种子。

Such companies have become emblems of China's “new economy,” which centers on technology and consumption. We view China's consumer market as a force to be reckoned with. It has become the second largest in the world after a breakneck pace of growth in the past 20 years, and we believe the uptrend can continue.

这些企业已经成为中国以技术和消费为中心的”新经济”象征。我们认为中国的消费市场是一股不可忽视的力量。在过去 20 年里,中国经济以惊人的速度增长,现在已经成为世界第二大经济体,我们相信这种上升趋势还会继续下去。

Cautious Optimism  

谨慎乐观

We think China's longer-term prospects will hinge greatly on how well it handles its challenges. There are also broader systemic tensions it needs to confront. If China's rebalancing efforts result in an economy that is sturdier and more sustainable, in our view, it would almost certainly continue to be a structural growth driver for emerging markets in the decades to come. We are watching developments closely.

我们认为,中国的长期前景将在很大程度上取决于中国政府如何应对挑战。还需要面对更广泛的系统性紧张局势。在我们看来,如果中国的再平衡努力能够带来更坚固,更可持续的经济,那么在未来几十年,中国必将会继续成为新兴市场的结构性增长动力。我们正密切关注事态发展。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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