并非所有新兴市场都是平等的
Not All Emerging Markets Are Equal
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2019-12-06 22:28
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Trade talks, country-specific concerns and a stronger US dollar created a challenging backdrop for emerging markets in the third quarter, but Manraj Sekhon, CIO of Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, and Chetan Sehgal, senior managing director and director of portfolio management, are looking beyond the noise of negative headlines. They highlight the effects of a growing disconnect between the negative sentiment permeating the market and positive emerging-market equity fundamentals, and present the team's overview of the emerging-markets universe in the third quarter of 2018.

第三季度,贸易谈判、针对特定国家的担忧以及美元走强为新兴市场设定了一个具有挑战性的背景,然而,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队首席投资官曼拉杰·塞洪和高级董事总经理及投资组合管理团队总监伽坦.赛加尔则透过这些负面头条的噪音看到本质。他们强调了弥漫于市场的负面情绪与积极的新兴市场股票基本面之间日益脱节的影响,并展示了其研究小组关于二零一八年第三季度新兴市场的概述。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文版

Three Things We're Thinking About Today

今天我们思考的三件事

  1. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points in September, its third increase in 2018, and in line with market expectations. The Fed is widely expected to raise the rate again in December and another three times in 2019. While some investors worry that rising US interest rates could hurt emerging markets, we found that previous tightening cycles did not lead to a long-term downward trend. In fact, since rates were first raised in December 2015, emerging-market (EM) stocks, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, have risen over 40% cumulatively in US-dollar terms.1
  2. An escalation in the trade dispute between the United States and China resulted in several rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs in recent months. Trade tariffs upon China have come at a challenging time, when its labor-cost advantage is fading and it is embarking upon the process of deleveraging. However, we believe supply-side reforms and deleveraging could help ease structural risks. Meanwhile, a shift towards innovation, technology and consumption as primary drivers of growth supports improved earnings sustainability. Corporate results have also been encouraging, with many companies not just reporting improved operating and financial performance, but also proposing to pay out a higher portion of earnings to shareholders.
  3. The passage of two key laws required for the 2019 general elections and a solid macroeconomic environment made Thailand one of the best-performing emerging markets over the quarter. The economy grew by a faster-than-expected 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter,2 inflation remained well under control despite the rise in oil prices, and interest rates are close to record lows. A current account surplus and large foreign reserves supported the Thai baht. While Thailand's market trades at a premium to its EM peers, we can still find stocks at attractive valuations. We believe major domestic banks are key beneficiaries of Thailand's economic recovery and appear attractively valued to us. Retail companies are another area of interest as they stand to benefit from the rise in consumption ahead of the elections.

1.美联储(Fed)九月将联邦基金利率上调 25 个基点,这是二零一八年第三次上调,符合市场预期。外界普遍预计美联储将在十二月再次上调利率,并在二零一九年再度加息三次。虽然一些投资者担心美国利率上升可能会伤害新兴市场,但我们发现,之前的紧缩周期并没有导致长期的下行趋势。事实上,自从二零一五年十二月首次加息以来,由 MSCI 新兴市场指数代表的新兴市场股票以美元计已累计上涨超过 40%。[1]

2.近几个月来,中美贸易争端的升级导致了几轮针锋相对的关税威胁。此次对中国施加贸易关税压力的时机正是中国的一个困难时期,劳动力成本优势正在消退,并且正开始去杠杆化的进程。不过,我们认为,供给侧改革和去杠杆化有助于缓解结构性风险。同时,向创新、技术和消费的转变作为增长的主要驱动提升了盈利的可持续性。企业表现也令人鼓舞,许多企业不仅报告了经营和财务业绩的改善,而且计划向股东发放更多收益分红。

3.由于二零一九年大选所需的两项重要法律的通过,以及宏观经济环境坚实,泰国成为本季度表现最好的新兴市场之一。今年第二季度该国经济增速快于预期,同比增长4.6%,[2]尽管油价上涨,通货膨胀仍处于良好控制之下,利率接近历史低点。经常账户盈余和大额外汇储备为泰铢提供支持。虽然泰国市场和其它新兴市场相比有一定交易溢价,但我们仍然可以找到估值有吸引力的股票。我们相信,大型国内银行是泰国经济复苏的关键受益者,对我们来说极具吸引力。零售企业是另一个值得关注的领域,因为他们将受益于选举前的消费增长。

Outlook

展望

In the last decade, China has surpassed the United States to become a far more important export market for most large emerging economies, mainly due to its burgeoning consumer market. Thus, trade growth now predominantly comes from intra-EM demand. Rising protectionism in the West may further pivot focus towards regional agreements. Indeed, China appears eager to replace US trade leadership in Asia.

在过去的十年中,中国已超过美国成为大多数大型新兴经济体更为重要的出口市场,这主要归功于其迅速发展的消费市场。因此,贸易增长现在主要来自新兴市场内部需求。西方保护主义抬头可能会进一步聚焦于地区协议。确实,中国似乎急于取代美国在亚洲的贸易领导地位。

In emerging markets in general, we continue to like themes such as the structural growth in the technology sector, rising consumption and economic reforms. Technology is reshaping the global economy. While emerging markets were once disadvantaged by poor infrastructure, digitalization and new technologies have enabled emerging markets to address development challenges and leapfrog technological change.

总的来说,在新兴市场,我们仍然看好科技行业的结构性增长、消费增长和经济改革等主题。技术正在重塑全球经济。虽然新兴市场一度因基础设施薄弱而处于不利地位,但数字化和新技术为新兴市场赋能,应对发展挑战并实现技术变革。

We aim to look beyond the “noise” of negative news headlines and instead focus on the underlying fundamentals of the EM asset class. We find a disconnect between the negative sentiment permeating the market and positive EM equity fundamentals, including rising cash flows, improving capital-allocation discipline, corporate deleveraging, healthy earnings and discounted valuations.

我们期望穿透负面头条的“噪音”,关注新兴市场资产类别的基本面。我们发现,市场上弥漫的负面情绪与积极的新兴市场股票基本面之间存在脱节,这些积极的信号包括现金流增加、资本配置原则改善、企业去杠杆化、盈利表现健康和较低的估值。

Not all emerging markets will be hurt by the same factors, and performances of individual emerging markets vary considerably. As stock pickers, we can choose among the varied opportunities that emerging markets offer to build well-diversified portfolios that seek to avoid excessive risks.

并非所有的新兴市场都受到相同因素的负面影响,各新兴市场的表现差别很大。作为选股人,我们可以在新兴市场提供的各种机会中做出选择,以建立多样化的投资组合,避免过度风险。

Emerging Markets Key Trends and Developments

新兴市场重大趋势及发展

EM equities began the third quarter on a strong footing but ended the period lower. Mixed news on trade talks, country-specific concerns and a stronger US dollar created a challenging backdrop for emerging markets. Conversely, developed-market stocks advanced. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.9% over the quarter, compared with a 5.1% gain in the MSCI World Index,3 both in US dollars.

新兴市场以强劲之势第三一季度,却以跌势结束。各类新闻中频繁出现的贸易谈判、针对特定国家的担忧以及美元走强为新兴市场设定了一个具有挑战性的背景。相反地,已发展市场股票走势良好。本季,MSCI 新兴市场指数下跌 0.9%,而 MSCI 世界指数上升 5.1%[3],两者均以美元计算。

The Most Important Moves in Emerging Markets This Quarter

新兴市场第三季度大事记

  • Asian equities fell amid a raft of economic concerns, led lower by China, Pakistan and India. China's deleveraging campaign and deepening trade row with the United States weighed on the outlook for its economy. Pakistan struggled with its growing current account deficit and shrinking foreign exchange reserves. India was hobbled by a decline in the rupee, a wider current account deficit and troubles in the non-bank lending industry. In contrast, stocks in Thailand, Taiwan and Malaysia were the top gainers. Thailand's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter and the military government took steps towards holding a general election by May next year. Taiwan benefitted from an advance in technology stocks, especially index heavyweight Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
  • Latin America was the best-performing region over the quarter, driven by strength in Brazil and Mexico. Brazil's market benefitted from the growing popularity of a more market-friendly candidate in electoral polls ahead of the October elections, coupled with resilient corporate earnings, higher commodity prices and reasonable valuations. Market sentiment in Mexico was supported by easing political uncertainty following Andrés Manuel López Obrador's victory in July's presidential elections and a conclusion on the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Canada reached an agreement late in the period to join the revised trade deal between the United States and Mexico. The accord, renamed United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), is expected to be signed in November. Colombia, Peru and Chile, however, recorded declines.
  • Emerging European markets, as a group, gained during the quarter, supported by a surge in September. Poland's equities rose ahead of FTSE's reclassification of the market from EM to developed-market status in September. Higher oil prices and attractive valuations drove stock prices in Russia. Despite a strong rebound in September, following appreciation in the lira and a sharp increase in interest rates, Turkey's market ended the three-month period with a double-digit decline. A strong dollar and worries about a proposed land reform weighed on investor sentiment in South Africa. On the positive side, some of the more controversial requisites of the proposed reform were eased in the country's Mining Charter.
  • Frontier markets declined, lagging their EM peers, partly due to asset class outflows. Lebanon, Nigeria and Sri Lanka were among the weakest markets, ending the quarter with double-digit declines. Nigeria was dragged down by slowing economic growth, high inflation and a decline in foreign direct investment, coupled with uncertainty ahead of the general elections in February 2019. Equity prices in Sri Lanka were impacted by a devaluation in the rupee and external debt funding concerns. Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait, however, fared better, ending the quarter with positive returns. The FTSE upgrade later this year and hopes of inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in the future continued to drive positive sentiment in Kuwait.
  • 面临一系列潜在经济问题,亚洲股市应声下跌,中国、巴基斯坦和印度领跌。去杠杆化进程及与美国贸易争端的升级对中国的经济前景构成了压力。巴基斯坦挣扎于经常账户赤字增长和外汇储备萎缩。由于卢比贬值、经常账户赤字扩大和非银行贷款行业陷入困境,印度步履蹒跚。相比之下,泰国、台湾和马来西亚股市的涨幅最为显著。泰国经济第二季度的增长速度超过预期,军政府已推动明年五月前举行大选。台湾得益于科技股的涨势,尤其是指数重量级的台湾半导体制造商。
  • 在巴西和墨西哥的强劲驱动下,拉丁美洲是本季度表现最好的地区。巴西市场得益于十月选举前的投票显示一位更亲市场的候选人受欢迎度不断提升,以及企业盈利稳健、商品价格上涨和估值合理等因素。继奥夫拉多尔在七月的总统选举中获胜,以及就修订后的北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)达成定论之后,墨西哥的市场情绪因政治不确定性的缓和得以稳定。在此期间,加拿大达成协议,加入美国和墨西哥之间的贸易协定。该协议改名为美国-墨西哥-加拿大协议(USCMA),预计将于十一月签署。然而,哥伦比亚、秘鲁和智利则录得跌幅。
  • 欧洲新兴市场作为一个集团,在本季度录得增长,主要来自于九月的增长。九月,波兰股市于 FTSE 市场重新分类中从新兴市场升级为已发展市场,此前其股价已现涨势。油价上涨和有吸引力的估值推动了俄罗斯股价上涨。尽管九月出现强劲反弹,但随着里拉升值和利率的急剧上升,土耳其市场以两位数的跌幅结束了本季度。美元强势和对土地改革的担忧影响了南非投资者的情绪。从积极的方面来说,拟议改革的一些更有争议的前提条件在该国的《采矿宪/章》中得以缓和。
  • 前沿市场出现下跌,落后于新兴市场,部分原因是资产类别流出。黎巴嫩、尼日利亚和斯里兰卡的表现最为疲软,本季度以两位数的跌幅收盘。由于经济增长放缓、高通胀和外国直接投资下降,加上二零一九年二月大选前的不确定性,尼日利亚股市受到拖累。斯里兰卡的股票价格受到卢比贬值和外债融资担忧的影响。不过,巴林、阿曼和科威特表现较好,以正回报结束了这一季度。今年晚些时候FTSE会将其升级以及未来被纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数的希望持续推动市场对科威特的积极情绪。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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1. Source: FactSet, as of September 30, 2018.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance.

[1]资料来源:FactSet,截至2018年9月30日。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI 并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

2. Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board, August 2018.

[2]资料来源:泰国国家经济与社会发展委员会,二零一八年八月。

3. Source: Factset. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[3]资料来源:FactSet。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。MSCI 全球市场指数采集了 23 个已发展市场中的大中型股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何 MSCI 数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI 并未准备或认可此报告。有关数据提供方的更多资讯,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

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