亚洲利用人工智能技术的竞赛
The Race to Harness AI Technology in Asia
1202字
2019-12-06 22:40
61阅读
火星译客

Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation present enormous investment opportunities, some in ways we don't even know yet. As the world adapts to technological advances, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity's Sukumar Rajah and Eric Mok think some promising developments in Asia could dictate the pace of change in the burgeoning AI market. Alongside this, they think infrastructure for new technology is likely to be just as significant if AI development is to truly thrive. They take a look at the implications for the region.

人工智能(AI)和自动化提供了巨大的投资机会,其中的一些我们甚至还尚未发觉。随着世界的技术进步,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票公司的苏库马尔•拉贾和埃里克•莫克认为,亚洲某些前沿发展可能决定了新兴人工智能市场的变化步伐。除此之外,他们认为,如果人工智能开发真正得到蓬勃发展,新技术的基础设施可能同样重要。他们审视了对于该地区的影响。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Dutch, French, German

这篇文章也有中文(简体)、荷兰文、法文、德文版

As the race to harness new technology heats up across the globe, we've already seen signs that Asia is at the forefront of integrating automation into our everyday lives.

随着利用新技术的竞争在全球范围内升温,我们已经看到有迹象表明亚洲处于将自动化融入日常生活的最前沿。

Asia, generally perceived to be the “factory of the world,” accounts for 65% of the world's total industrial robot usage in manufacturing.1 In our view, such a sizable investment in robotics to power an already established industry signals that change is already underway.  And with further technological developments on the horizon, we expect machines to take over even more aspects of manufacturing in the near future.

亚洲一般被认为是“世界工厂”,占世界制造业工业机器人总使用量的 65%。1在我们看来,如此大规模的机器人投资用来驱动一个已经成熟的行业,这表明变革已经在进行中。随着进一步的技术发展,我们预计机器将在不久的将来接管更多的制造方面。

The advent of what some have dubbed the “fourth industrial revolution” builds upon the foundations of the last groundbreaking period of digitization to integrate technology into almost every aspect of our lives.

在最新的开创性数字化时代基础之上,一些人称之为“第四次工业革命”的变革正在发生,将技术融入我们生活的几乎每个方面。

It won't just bring technological innovation, though. The current speed at which we discover breakthroughs is unprecedented, and we think that could provide ample opportunity for Asia to tap into the AI market, as we've already seen the region harness AI technology—at a faster pace than the rest of the world—through manufacturing across several industries.

但它不仅会带来技术创新。我们目前发现突破的速度是前所未有的,我们认为这可以为亚洲提供充足的机会进入人工智能市场,因为我们已经看到该地区在各种行业的制造过程中利用人工智能技术——而且比世界其他地方的脚步更快。

Look Beyond the Software

超越软件

In our view, some countries in Asia could be in a prime spot to take advantage of technological advancements. There's a common misconception that the region is a combination of low-cost exporters, cheap manufacturers and a place to outsource tasks.

我们认为,亚洲的一些国家可能处于利用技术进步的黄金地段。人们普遍存在一种误解,认为该地区是低成本出口商、廉价制造商和外包任务的组合。

In fact, some Asian economies have leapfrogged the structure commonly found in developed economies, since there's little sunk capital investment in legacy technology and infrastructure. This is particularly noticeable in China which has adopted mobile payment systems at a remarkable pace. For example, there's an expectation that payments made for a meal, an online order or to a taxi driver are done through a digital e-wallet.

事实上,一些亚洲经济体已经超越了发达经济体中常见的结构,因为对传统技术和基础设施的资本投资很少。这在迅速展开移动支付系统的中国非常明显。例如,人们已经习惯在用餐、在线订单或坐出租车之后用电子钱包付款。

Residents in rural areas in particular are able to take advantage of mobile-to-mobile payments, so there's no longer a need to make a concerted effort to visit a brick-and-mortar bank branch. The penetration of these types of digital systems is much higher than we've seen in the developed world. Interestingly, across the border in Hong Kong, payments are still largely cash or card-based.

居民,尤其是农村地区的居民,能够轻松使用手机对手机支付功能,因此不再需要交易双方费力去实体银行网点办理。这些类型的数字系统的渗透率远高于我们在发达国家所见。有趣的是,在香港,付款仍主要是现金或刷卡为主。

Equally, we don't think some technological advances could happen without a physical support system in place. Current hardware and infrastructure support the technology of today. We believe future technology will require better hardware and infrastructure.

同样,我们认为一些技术进步如果没有物理支持系统是不可能出现的。当前的硬件和基础设施支持着当今的技术。我们相信未来的技术需要更好的硬件和基础设施。

This includes better silicon chips. For example, for AI to power self-driving vehicles, better silicon chips need to be developed and manufactured to support autonomous systems.

这包括更好的硅芯片。例如,对于 AI 控制的自动驾驶车辆,我们需要开发和制造更好的硅芯片来支持自动驾驶系统。

We are particularly excited about the prospects for hardware players in the industry that are building and developing semiconductors and logic integrated circuits (IC) to meet increasing demand. It's one of the major downstream effects that we have on our radar, that will likely boost the major semiconductor industry in Taiwan, and China's newer industry to an extent.

我们对业内正在建设和开发半导体和逻辑集成电路(IC)以满足不断增长的需求的硬件供应商的前景感到特别兴奋。这是我们密切关注的主要下游影响之一,这可能会在一定程度上推动台湾主要半导体产业和中国新兴产业。

Computing power, speed and memory, are also required to support AI. We think this could drive exponential increases in computing power that can process large amounts of data and algorithms. Some smartphones are already more powerful than a PC, and with more technology aimed at smartphone apps, we see this as an area for further development .

计算能力、速度和内存也是支持 AI 所需的。我们认为这可以推动计算能力的指数级增长,使其可以处理大量数据和算法。有些智能手机已经比 PC 更强大,而且有更多针对智能手机应用的技术,我们认为这是进一步发展的领域。

Riding the Wave of Machine Learning

乘着机器学习的浪潮

An increase in the use of smart devices has created a global demand for the Internet of Things (IoT), which are networks that allow devices to be hyperconnected. But, we predict demand for AI technologies will outstrip IoT, robotics and virtual reality.

物联网是允许设备超连接的网络。智能设备使用的增加引发了对物联网(IoT)的全球需求。但是,我们预测,对人工智能技术的需求将超过物联网、机器人和虚拟现实。

Historically the push to develop AI has come from the technology sector, but now other sectors are also harnessing AI to transform their own industries.

从历史上看,人工智能开发的推动力来自技术领域,但现在其他领域也在利用人工智能来改造自己的产业。

The health care sector, for example, is looking to use AI in a number of ways, including AI-assisted robotic surgery, earlier diagnoses through the use of algorithms and speedier analysis of images and scans.

例如,医疗保健部门正在寻求以多种方式使用 AI,包括 AI 辅助机器人手术,通过使用算法进行早期诊断以及更快速地分析图像和扫描。

Financial services, telecommunications and media entertainment companies have traditionally used software to tailor products to customers. We'd expect companies in these industries to utilize AI to process masses of customer data and predict customer needs.

金融服务、通信和传媒娱乐公司传统上使用软件为客户量身定制产品。这些行业的公司很可能利用人工智能处理大量客户数据并预测客户需求。

On a larger scale, there's scope to monitor the world's environmental challenges, such as sustainability, pollution and climate change—via the use of AI-deploying devices to monitor fishing activities, reef mapping, and the pH level and temperature of the ocean.

在更大范围内,可以通过使用人工智能部署设备监测捕捞活动、珊瑚礁测绘以及海洋的 pH 值和温度,来监测可持续性、污染和气候变化等世界环境问题。

Finally, we think the availability of 5G, the next generation of mobile internet connectivity, is important. Unlike its predecessor networks, 5G will represent something that's been purpose-built to facilitate and help implement new AI technology.

最后,我们认为下一代移动互联网连接 5G 的可用性非常重要。与其前身网络不同,5G 本身具有促进和帮助实施新 AI 技术的性质。

The Need For Infrastructure Support

对基础设施支持的需求

Ultimately, technological advances in the AI space are exciting. However, we don't think AI can reach its full potential without a much-needed support system to drive innovation.

最终,AI 领域的技术进步令人兴奋。但是我们认为,如果没有所需的支持系统来推动创新,人工智能无法发挥其全部潜力。

We've seen progressive technological developments made across the globe, but right now we think there needs to be more emphasis on infrastructure and hardware itself—and we think Asia might just have enough in its engine to power the developments required to harness AI technology.

我们已经看到了全球范围内技术的逐步发展,但是现在我们认为需要更加重视基础设施和硬件本身 – 我们认为亚洲正具有合适的引擎来驱动 AI 技术所需的开发进展。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

_______________________

_______________________

1.Source: International Monetary Fund, “Invest in Robots and People in Asia,” August 29, 2018.

1.资料来源:国际货币基金组织,“亚洲地区的机器人和人力投资”,二零一八年八月二十九日。

0 条评论
评论不能为空