创新的药方
A Prescription for Innovation
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2019-12-06 19:46
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火星译客

The word “innovation” is typically associated with technology, but innovation comes in many forms and across many industries. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity's Krzysztof Musialik sees innovation taking place within the health care and pharmaceuticals industries in emerging markets—even driving change in developed markets.

“创新”一词通常与技术相关,但创新有多种形式,涉及多个行业。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的克孜兹托夫·穆西亚利克认为,新兴市场的医疗保健和制药行业正出现许多创新,甚至将驱动发达市场的变革。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Spanish, Polish

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、西班牙文、波兰文版

We are very excited about the prospects for the pharmaceutical industry within emerging markets, particularly smaller companies. The sector looks very promising to us due to three primary drivers.

新兴市场医药行业,尤其是规模较小的企业的发展前景,让我们感到非常兴奋。该行业受到三大因素驱动,前景非常可观。

Demographics

人口学

Populations are aging not only in many developed economies, but also some emerging ones, too. Given the advancements in medicine we've seen over the past few decades, we are seeing demographic shifts that began in the developed markets starting to spread to the emerging markets as well—where some countries are now facing greater numbers of elderly citizens. Amid these demographic shifts within the large pharmaceutical markets (China in particular), an aging population acts as a structural demand driver. It is obvious that the older people become, the more demand there is for medicine and medical care.

人口老龄化不仅发生在许多已发展经济体中,一部分新兴经济体也已出现人口老龄化。鉴于过去几十年间医药的进步,我们看到,从已发展市场开始的人口变化现在也开始扩散到了新兴市场——其中部分国家老龄人口的数量越来越庞大。在大型医药市场(尤其是中国),上述人口变化中的人口老龄化就成为了一个结构性的需求驱动因素。显然,随着人们逐渐衰老,对于药品和医疗保健的需求会随之增长。

Environmental and Lifestyle Changes

环境与生活方式改变

As longevity has increased, so has the incidence of cancer and diabetes epidemics in emerging markets. Rapid economic development has resulted in enormous deterioration of the environment, with air pollution being probably the most severe consequence. Air pollution is suspected to be driving cancer incidence rates up in many emerging markets such as China, where the prevalence of this disease has increased exponentially.

在新兴市场中,随着人们寿命的延长,癌症和糖尿病也变得愈发常见。快速的经济发展导致了环境的严重恶化,其中空气污染可能是最严重的后果之一。在许多新兴市场,空气污染可能是导致癌症发病率上升的一大元凶,例如在中国,相关疾病的发病率呈指数上升。

Cancer has been the leading cause of death in China since 2010, with lung cancer the most common. The country has seen an estimated 4.3 million new cancer cases per year (or almost 12,000 new cancer diagnoses each day).1

自二零一零年以来,癌症一直是中国首位的死亡原因,其中肺癌是最常见癌症。中国每年预估新增 430 万癌症案例(即每天新诊断近 1.2 万名癌症患者)。[1]

Economic success has also changed lifestyles in many emerging markets—and not necessarily for the better. Unhealthy lifestyles—including a lack of physical activity and increased consumption of processed foods—have contributed to an increase in obesity, which is the main cause of diabetes. Once considered a disease of the affluent developed markets of Europe and North America, the incidence of diabetes and oncological diseases in emerging markets is expected to grow by 20% or more by 2030.2 Of course, these are not positive events—but ones that must be dealt with—and fortunately today, there are better treatments and improved outcomes than in the past.

经济的发展也改变了许多新兴市场居民的生活方式,但这种改变并不都是改善。缺乏运动、更多地摄入加工食品等不健康的生活方式,导致了肥胖率的增加,而这正是糖尿病的主要原因。糖尿病和肿瘤疾病过去被认为是欧美等富裕的已发展市场的疾病,而在新兴市场,预计到二零三零年,这些疾病的发病率将增加 20% 或更多。[2]当然,这些趋势并不令人开心,但我们必须着手应对。幸运的是,我们现在比过去有着更完善的治疗方式和更理想的治疗效果。

Innovation

创新

The breakneck pace of innovation in the pharmaceutical space in emerging markets is perhaps the most surprising driver we see for growth in these types of companies. We think innovation is happening due to several factors.

新兴市场医药行业的创新速度飞快,这也许是此类企业增长的最令人意外的驱动因素。我们认为,下列几个因素正不断刺激着创新。

  • Return of expats from the “West” back to China/Taiwan.
  • Somewhat more lenient ethical requirements in terms of clinical trials, especially important now in the era of genomics revolution. For example, China is progressing fast with trials in genomics.
  • Many emerging markets have a systematic goal of moving up the value chain, from low-cost manufacturing of cheap goods to innovative market-leading industries. Governments in countries such as China, South Korea and Taiwan have been sponsoring innovation initiatives.
  • “海归”回归中国大陆/台湾。
  • 对临床实验的道德要求略为宽松,这在如今基因组革命的时代更为重要。例如,中国在基因组学实验方面进展迅速。
  • 许多新兴市场均有向价值链上端移动的系统性目标,从廉价产品的低成本生产向创新的领先行业转型。中国、韩国、台湾等政府大力支持创新行为。

These trends have not gone unnoticed. Large pharmaceutical companies located in developed economies have been closely watching the growth of Asian pharmaceutical players. In recent years, many of them have struck partnerships with emerging-market pharmaceutical companies.

这些趋势引起了大家的重视。已发展经济体的大型医药企业都在密切关注亚洲竞争对手的增长情况。近年来,许多医药企业和新兴市场药企达成了合作伙伴关系。

For example, Johnson & Johnson licensed-out a novel molecule from a Chinese company in the field of CAR-T Therapy.

例如,美国强生(Johnson & Johnson)向一家中国企业就 CAR-T 疗法领域一种新型分子进行了授权。

CAR-T Therapy is a type of treatment in which a patient's white blood cells (T cells, a type of immune system cell) are taken and then modified to add a special receptor (a chimeric antigen receptor, or CAR) in the gene that binds to certain proteins on the patient's cancer cells and injected back into the patient for cancer treatment. So far, there are only two such therapies, both offered by large biotech companies from developed markets with a cost of treatment of US$500,000, that have been approved in the last year. Companies in emerging markets have jumped into the CAR-T Therapy race, with the number of clinical trials in China surpassing the number of such trials in the United States.

在 CAR-T 疗法中,将病患的白细胞(T 细胞,一种免疫系统细胞)取出,进行基因修饰,在基因中添加一种可与病患肿瘤细胞的特异性蛋白相结合的特殊受体(嵌合抗原受体,英文简称为 CAR),并回输病患体内,以实现癌症治疗目的。截至目前,全世界仅有两种此类疗法,均由已发展市场的大型生物科技企业提供,治疗成本高达 50 万美元,且刚在去年通过审批。新兴市场企业踊跃参与到 CAR-T 疗法的赛跑中,中国所开展的临床实验数量已超过美国。

Another interesting example of innovation in emerging markets which has not gone unnoticed by companies in developed markets is in the area of gene-editing technology. A South Korean biotech company recently struck a partnership with a US-based agrochemical and biotech giant to use a CRISPR technology platform to develop agricultural products.

已发展市场企业不会放过新兴市场的创新,这里还有一个有趣的例子,即基因剪辑技术领域。一家韩国的生物科技企业近期与一家总部位于美国的农用化学品与生物科技巨头达成合作,使用 CRISPR 技术平台开发农业产品。

The technology that is the subject of the deal (CRISPR) will have many applications across global sectors, from the food industry to pharmaceuticals. CRISPR stands for Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats, which is a gene-editing technology. Gene-editing technologies, like CRISPR, offer agriculture researchers significant advantages over existing plant breeding and biotechnology methods due to their versatility and efficiency, and will theoretically allow farmers to grow more using less.

本例中的技术(CRISPR)可应用于全球自食品至医药等多个行业。CRISPR 的全称为常间回文重复序列丛集(Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats),是一种基因剪辑技术。CRISPR 这类基因剪辑技术为农业研究人员提供了超过现有作物培育和生物科技方法的优势,其用途更多、更高效,理论上可使农户使用更少的资源种出更多的东西。

As increasing prosperity drives demand for health care and healthier lifestyles, emerging markets are becoming sources of significant growth for the pharmaceutical industry and a center for innovation within the industry itself. We believe this area offers exciting potential for investors, one that will be a significant driver of advancement in society in both emerging and developed markets alike in the decades ahead. We think health care and pharmaceuticals in emerging markets are just entering the early stages of development.

生活水平的提升推动了新兴市场对于医疗健康和更健康的生活方式的需求,因而新兴市场成为了医药行业的重大增长来源和行业内的创新中心。我们相信,这一领域具备着极大的投资潜力,在未来的数十年内,该领域将为新兴市场和已发展市场的社会进步提供可观的驱动力。我们认为,新兴市场医疗健康和医药行业的腾飞才刚刚开始。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

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1. Source: Cancer Statistics in China 2015, CA: A Journal for Clinicians.

[1]资料来源:二零一五年中国癌症统计,《临床医师癌症杂志(CA: A Journal For Clinicians)》

2.Source: American Diabetes Association, Diabetes Care, “Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030” There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[2]资料来源:美国糖尿病学会(American Diabetes Association),《糖尿病护理(Diabetes Care)》 ,“糖尿病的全球流行:二零零零年预估及二零三零年预测(Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030)”。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

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