新兴市场对美元的担忧“过头了”
Dollar Concerns “Overdone” in Emerging Markets
1098字
2019-12-05 22:15
52阅读
火星译客

Continued US dollar strength has focused attention on weaker commodity prices and dented investor enthusiasm for emerging markets in recent months—stoking fears that the current climate could lead to a repeat of the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis. However, Chetan Sehgal, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, feels these concerns are largely overdone. He believes the last two decades of mass financial reforms have transformed emerging Asia's financial markets.

近几个月来,美元持续走强使得注意力集中于大宗商品价格的疲弱,并削弱了投资者对新兴市场的热情。人们不免担忧,当前的市场环境可能导致一九九七年至一九九八年的亚洲金融危机再次出现。然而,据富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队切特安·塞希格称,亚洲新兴金融市场在过去二十年的大规模金融改革中已经改头换面,这些担忧在很大程度上都是多虑的。

In part two of this series, “The Impact of US Policy on Emerging Markets,” Chetan outlines the progress he's seen in emerging Asia's financial markets. He also explains why he thinks the US dollar's influence doesn't necessarily have to dim the prospects for emerging markets.

在“美国政策对新兴市场的影响”该文章系列的第二部分中,切特安·塞希格概述他在亚洲新兴金融市场所看到的进展,并解释了为什么美元不一定会给新兴市场的前景造成不利影响。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文版

Since the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), investor sentiment on emerging markets has tended to sour during periods of US dollar strength and lower commodity prices.

自一九九七年至一九九八年亚洲金融危机以来,在美元走强和大宗商品价格下跌期间,投资者对新兴市场的情绪会趋于低迷。

Back in 1997, a rush of foreign investment and series of asset bubbles precipitated the crisis at the same time the US Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, causing the US dollar to strengthen. Servicing costs for dollar-denominated debt also became increasingly difficult to meet. Meanwhile, Thailand's step to remove its currency peg to the US dollar left Asian economies vulnerable and subject to speculative currency attacks.

外国投资的涌入和一系列资产泡沫加剧了危机,与此同时,美联储开始加息,导致美元走强。以美元计价的债务的偿债成本也愈发高昂。并且,泰国解除泰铢与美元挂钩的举措使亚洲经济体处于弱势,并可能受到投机性货币攻击。

But 20 years on from the AFC, we regard the economic landscape in many emerging markets as fundamentally stronger than it was back then. Our experience suggests investors should focus less on what's going on in the United States, and more on the developments on the ground in the countries themselves.

然而,亚洲金融危机已过去二十年,我们认为,许多新兴市场的经济状况比当年要坚实得多。我们的经验表明,投资者无需过于关注美国正在发生的事情,而应多关注国家本身的实际发展。

In many cases, emerging markets have drawn lessons from past crises to strengthen policies and governance. In addition, many emerging-market economies are less commodity-driven then they were decades ago. Therefore the whims of commodity prices have less influence. Interestingly, two of the most high-profile emerging markets, India and China, are both importers of oil and commodities. These two countries stand to benefit from cheaper commodity prices as a result of a stronger US dollar.

在许多情况下,新兴市场已经从过去的危机中吸取了教训,并强化了政策和治理。此外,许多新兴市场经济体已不像几十年前那般依赖于大宗商品。因此,大宗商品价格波动所带来的影响减弱。有趣的是,两个最引人注目的新兴市场——印度和中国,都是石油和大宗商品的进口国。由于美元走强,这两个国家都将受益于大宗商品价格下跌。

Thailand and many other countries currently have floating currencies and more disciplined policies for managing foreign-exchange reserves and current accounts. Improved banking regulations have encouraged domestic sources of funding in many instances, so there is less reliance on dollar-denominated debt, which can be costly to service as US interest rates rise.

泰国等国采用了浮动汇率制以及更加严格的外汇储备和经常账户管理政策。银行监管的改善在很大程度上鼓励了国内资金,从而减少了对以美元计价债务的依赖,而该类债务的偿债成本会随着美国利率上升而增加。

Changes in US policy could of course still cause pain in emerging-market countries with high external debt. But we've noticed a general shift. Asian monetary policy is no longer as highly correlated with US interest rates and is more dependent on local growth and inflation conditions.

当然,美国政策的变化仍然可能给外债高企的新兴市场国家带来痛苦。然而,我们注意到了一个大势的转变。亚洲货币政策不再与美国利率高度绑定,而是更多地与本地增长和通货膨胀状况相关。

Same Region, Different Landscape

同一个区域,旧貌换新颜

Despite some impact from a rising US dollar, we've seen some dramatic changes made to financial markets in emerging Asia since the AFC. This suggests to us that the fundamentals we see today are more resilient and should avoid a repeat of the 1997 crisis.

尽管美元升值带来了一定的影响,但是,亚洲金融危机之后的这些年里,亚洲新兴金融市场已发生了翻天覆地的变化。这表明,我们今天看到的新兴市场基本面更有韧性,具备抵御一九九七年金融危机重演的能力。

We believe positive change is underway—economic growth, financial reform and the development of local capital markets has spurred on change in countries the AFC affected most. For example, Thailand, Malaysia and China now have current account surpluses.

我们相信,市场正在向积极的方向发展——在亚洲金融危机中受创最严重的国家,藉由其经济增长、金融改革和地方资本市场的发展,正在推动许多正向的变化。例如,泰国、马来西亚和中国现在已有经常账户盈余。

It was a different story back in 1997. The collapse of the Thai baht proved to be the catalyst of the AFC. Today, Thailand's fundamental picture is much improved. The country has a large current account surplus that's running in excess of $40 billion,1 driven partly by tourism and auto exports, plus a growing textile industry.

一九九七年的情况则大为不同。泰铢崩溃被证明是亚洲金融危机的导火索。今天,泰国的基本面有了很大改善。其经常账户盈余超过 400 亿[1]美元,部分驱动力是旅游业和汽车出口以及不断增长的纺织业。

Indonesia was another country whose currency came under pressure from the rising US dollar during the AFC. Its central bank, Bank Indonesia, has since made significant efforts to implement new regulations. These include higher import taxes for non-essential consumer goods in a bid to reduce its current account deficit, which currently sits at 3% of gross domestic product.2

在亚洲金融危机期间,印尼货币也承受了美元升值的巨大压力。自那以后,印尼央行花费重大努力落实了诸多新规。其中包括提高非必需消费品的进口税,以减少其经常账户赤字,目前赤字占国内生产总值的 3%。[2]

The central bank also now has the power and the drive to defend the Indonesian rupiah if required through interest-rate hikes and with its cache of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves.

如果需要的话,印尼央行现在也有能力和动力通过加息和其数十亿美元的外汇储备来保护印尼卢比。

In general, emerging-market economies are actually less leveraged than advanced economies. We think this gap could provide some breathing room as not all debt held by emerging markets is dollar-denominated debt. The cost of servicing this local currency debt would likely be less.

总体来说,新兴市场经济体的杠杆率实际上低于已发展经济体。我们认为,由于并非所有新兴市场持有的债务均以美元计价,因此这一差距可能带来一些喘息的空间。本币债务的偿债成本可能会更低。

Recent dovish commentary from the US Federal Reserve means market expectations for US interest rate hikes next year have fallen. If the Fed slows its interest-rate hiking cycle, we could also see some stability or even some weakening in the US dollar.

美联储近期的鸽派言论意味着市场对美国再次加息的预期已经下降。如果美联储在二零一九年全年不持续加息,则加息周期可能放缓。与此同时,鉴于美国经济增长可能放缓,我们也可能会看到美元在一定程度上趋稳或甚至出现疲软。

Financial markets and core fundamentals in emerging Asia are likely less to be influenced by US policy than they were 20 years ago. In our view, this leaves emerging markets more resilient to dollar strength than before.

与二十年前相比,亚洲新兴市场的金融市场与核心基本面受美国政策影响的程度很可能较低。我们认为,新兴市场对美元走强的容忍度比以前更大。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

1. Source: Bank of Thailand, October 2017.

[1]资料来源:泰国银行,二零一七年十月。

2. Source: Bank Indonesia, August 2018.

[2]资料来源:印度尼西亚银行,二零一八年八月。

0 条评论
评论不能为空