二月份新兴市场的表现喜忧参半
Mixed Emerging Market Performances in February
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2019-12-05 21:57
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Emerging market equities saw mixed performances in February, with stocks in Asia faring better than stocks in Latin America and emerging Europe, which underperformed. Franklin Templeton's Emerging Markets Equity team outlines what drove market moves during the month and where they see opportunities today. They see reasons to be optimistic about Brazil in particular.

二月份新兴市场股市的表现喜忧参半。拉丁美洲和欧洲新兴市场表现不佳,而亚洲股市表现则远优于前两者。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队概述了本月推动市场走势的因素,以及他们如今看到的机会。他们认为有理由对巴西持乐观态度。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

Three Things We're Thinking About Today

今天我们思考的三件事

  1. US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the March 1 tariff hikes following progress in trade talks reduced global tensions. Reports that US and Chinese negotiators are working on the final details of a US-China trade deal boosted sentiment towards emerging markets (EMs). We remain cautiously optimistic as the United States and China continue to resolve their differences, while their trade relationship evolves. Even with a trade deal, however, long-term strategic rivalry is likely to continue. We also expect the Chinese government to continue supporting the domestic economy, as evidenced by the recent implementation of targeted fiscal and monetary policies. We will continue to monitor the situation and look for attractive investment opportunities—likely in sectors related to health care, consumption and manufacturing upgrades, which over the long term, are less directly impacted by tariff regime changes.
  2. Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan faced their worst crisis in years during February over disputed territory in Kashmir. However, both countries have expressed that they do not wish to see further escalation of the situation. While one cannot rule out more border incursions from both sides, we believe chances of escalation are limited due to mounting international pressure calling for restraint. Recent developments are also viewed positively, with Pakistan releasing the captured Indian fighter pilot and taking steps to restrain terrorists. In our view, the current conflict has limited impact on investment strategy, and we retain conviction in our holdings in India and Pakistan. We are monitoring the situation closely, which remains fluid at this point.
  3. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro presented the long-awaited social security reform proposal to the Congress in February. We are of the view that the proposal, which includes a higher-than-expected estimated fiscal savings of about US $300 billion over 10 years, signals the president's commitment to improving the government's fiscal deficit. Although some dilution in the reform is expected, this is a step in the right direction, and we expect to see a strong emphasis on reforms and privatization from the new government. This should, in turn, provide a basis for higher economic growth and a better business environment for the companies. We continue to have a favorable view on domestic-oriented themes, including financials and consumer-related sectors. These should benefit from better economic activity in a low-inflation and higher credit-availability environment.

1.在贸易谈判取得进展后,美国总统唐纳德特朗普决定推迟三月一日的关税上调,这缓解了全球紧张局势。据报道,美国和中国谈判代表正在就美中贸易协议的最终细节进行磋商,此消息提振了人们对新兴市场的信心。随着美国和中国继续解决分歧,并改进其贸易关系,我们将对此保持谨慎乐观的态度。然而,即使达成了贸易协议,长期的战略竞争仍有可能继续。我们还预计中国政府将继续支持国内经济,最近实施的有针对性的财政和货币政策就是证明。我们将继续监测形势,并寻找有吸引力的投资机会 – 机会可能出现在与医疗保健、消费和制造业升级有关的行业,从长远来看,这些行业较少受到关税制度变化的直接影响。

2.今年二月,拥有核武器的竞争对手印度和巴基斯坦在克什米尔争议领土问题上面临多年以来最严重的危机。但是,两国都表示不希望看到局势进一步升级。虽然不能排除双方进行更多的边境侵袭,但我们认为,由于呼吁克制的国际压力越来越大,危机升级的可能性有限。最近的事态发展也获得积极的看法,巴基斯坦释放了被俘的印度战斗机飞行员,并采取措施抑制恐怖/分子。我们认为,目前的冲突对投资策略的影响有限,我们对在印度和巴基斯坦的持股保持信心。我们正密切关注局势,目前事态仍不稳定。

3.二月份,巴西总统波索那罗向国会提交了期待已久的社会保障改革提案。该提案内容包括在未来 10 年内节省约 3000 亿美元的财政开支,高于人们的预期,我们认为这标志着总统承诺改善政府的财政赤字。尽管改革可能会有所淡化,但这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步,我们预计新政府将大力强调改革和私有化。这将进而为更高的经济增长和企业更好的商业环境提供基础。我们继续看好以国内为导向的主题,包括金融和消费相关行业。这些行业应该会受益于低通胀和更高信贷可用性的环境下更好的经济活动。

Outlook

展望

US interest-rate-hike expectations have declined sharply, spurring gains in EM currencies and equities, as well as large flows into the EM asset class. Easing global trade tension further benefited sentiment. However, we believe that for the market rally to be sustainable, earnings need to improve. Improved corporate governance in EMs could also argue for a longer-term rerating.

美国加息预期大幅下滑,刺激了新兴市场货币和股市上涨,以及大量资金进入新兴市场资产类别。全球贸易紧张局势的缓解,进一步提振了市场情绪。但是,我们认为,为了使市场持续反弹,盈利需要改善。经过改善的新兴市场企业治理也可能推动长期重新评级。

We believe technology will continue to reshape the global economy, as technology disruptors become the norm by transforming industry landscapes, e-commerce continues to accelerate, and companies continue to embrace technology and innovation.

我们相信科技将继续重塑全球经济,因为科技颠覆者改变行业格局已成为常态、电子商务在继续加速以及企业仍在鼓励科技和创新。

The transformation of the EM consumer is another key theme for us. Favorable demographics and urbanization dynamics, coupled with an underleveraged EM consumer, bring opportunities to tap into a growing domestic consumer market, and rising affluence continues to drive premiumization.

新兴市场消费者的转型是我们的另一个关键主题。有利的人口结构和城市化动态,加上新兴市场消费者的低负债率,为不断增长的国内消费市场带来机遇,而日益崛起的富裕阶级继续推动着高端消费。

As such, we continue to favor companies that provide exposures to these key themes of consumption and technology, where we have confidence in management's ability to deliver sustainable growth that we believe the market may be mispricing.

因此,我们继续青睐那些面向消费和科技这些关键主题的企业,我们对管理层实现可持续增长的能力充满信心,我们认为市场尚未发现此类增长的真正价值。

Emerging Markets Key Trends and Developments

新兴市场重大趋势及发展

EM equities edged higher in February, trailing developed-market (DM) stocks. Progress in US-China trade talks drove investor optimism that was later tempered by pockets of geopolitical and economic concerns. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index edged up 0.2% over the month, compared with a 3.1% return in the MSCI World Index, both in US dollars.1

二月新兴市场股市小幅走高,落后于已发展市场股市。美中贸易谈判的进展推动了投资者的乐观情绪,但后来受到一些地缘政治和经济问题的干扰。MSCI 新兴市场指数小幅上涨 0.2%,而 MSCI 全球指数的回报率为 3.1%,均以美元计算。 [1]

The Most Important Moves in Emerging Markets This Month

本月新兴市场的最重要动态

  • Asian stocks rose, with Taiwan, China and Malaysia posting the strongest returns. Hopes for an end to the US-China trade row lifted broad market sentiment. The United States delayed a planned increase in tariffs on Chinese goods as trade negotiations advanced. China's market also gained on signs of easing credit conditions in the country. Investor confidence was capped by geopolitical uncertainty amid rising military tensions between India and Pakistan. A US-North Korea summit aimed at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula also failed to achieve a deal. Markets in Pakistan, Indonesia and the Philippines recorded the largest declines.
  • February saw Latin America give back some of January's strong gains. Equity prices in Brazil, Mexico and Chile declined. Profit-taking and disappointing 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth data weighed on the Brazilian market, despite the unveiling of a better-than-expected social security reform. In Mexico, mixed macroeconomic data and concerns surrounding the state-owned oil company weighed on investor sentiment. At the other end of the spectrum, Colombia and Peru recorded positive returns, supported by improving economic data.
  • Equity markets in Emerging Europe declined in February, with Poland, Turkey and Russia leading the way down. Despite a rebound in oil prices, equity prices in Russia fell partly due to depreciation in the Russian ruble. Weakness in the Polish zloty was largely responsible for the decline in that market. The Czech Republic market, however, bucked the regional trend, ending the month with a small gain. The South African rand depreciated in February, following a strong gain in January, making South Africa one of EM's weakest markets in February.
  • Frontier markets fared better than their EM counterparts but trailed DMs. Romania, Vietnam and Nigeria led returns. Investors in Romania reacted positively to the government's largest draft budget, which did not include revenue estimates from a recently discussed bank levy. Elections dominated headlines in Nigeria, where following a one-week delay, President Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected. Following a strong performance in January, Argentina ended the month with a double-digit decline, partly due to a weak Argentine peso. Rising inflationary pressure and concerns about austerity measures also impacted investor confidence.
  • 亚洲股市上涨,台湾、中国和马来西亚的回报最为强劲。对美中贸易争端结束的希望提振了市场的广泛情绪。随着贸易谈判的推进,美国推迟了对中国增加商品关税的计划。中国市场也因国家信贷状况缓解的迹象而上涨。随着印度和巴基斯坦之间的军事紧张局势不断升级,地缘政治的不确定性限制了投资者的信心。旨在实现朝鲜半岛无核化的美朝峰会也未能达成协议。巴基斯坦、印度尼西亚和菲律宾的市场跌幅最大。
  • 二月份,拉丁美洲回吐了一月份的部分强势涨幅。巴西、墨西哥和智利的股票价格下跌。尽管推出了好于预期的社会保障改革,但套利和令人失望的二零一八年国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长数据令巴西市场承压。在墨西哥,宏观经济数据喜忧参半,围绕国有石油企业的担忧打压了投资者的情绪。另一方面,哥伦比亚和秘鲁在经济数据改善的支持下取得积极回报。
  • 欧洲新兴市场的股票市场在二月下跌,波兰、土耳其和俄罗斯跌幅领先。尽管油价反弹,但俄罗斯股票价格仍然下跌,部分原因是俄罗斯卢布贬值。波兰兹罗提的疲软是其市场下滑的主要原因。然而,捷克共和国市场不同于整个区域趋势,本月录得小幅上升。在一月份强劲增长之后,南非兰特在二月份贬值,使得南非成为二月份新兴市场最疲软的市场之一。
  • 前沿市场表现优于新兴市场,但落后于已发展市场。罗马尼亚、越南和尼日利亚领涨。罗马尼亚的投资者对政府规模最大的预算草案做出了积极反应,该草案未包括最近讨论的银行税收收入估算。在尼日利亚,选举占据了新闻头条,在推迟一周之后,总统穆罕默杜布哈里再次当选。在一月份表现强劲之后,阿根廷本月以两位数的跌幅收盘,部分原因是阿根廷比索疲软。不断上升的通胀压力以及对紧缩措施的担忧也影响了投资者的信心。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。该材料不作为有关任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略任何重大事件的完整分析。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

What are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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1. Sources: MSCI, FactSet as of February 28, 2019. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results.

[1] 来源:MSCI、FactSet,截至二零一九年二月二十八日。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家的大中盘股代表。MSCI 全球市场指数采集了 23 个已发展市场中的大中型股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不包括手续费、支出或销售费用。过往业绩不代表或不保证将来的表现。

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