为什么对印度大选的担忧掩盖了该国长期投资潜力
Why Pre-Election Concerns Belie India’s Potential
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2019-12-04 23:23
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As India gears up for a general election in the spring, an increase in populist rhetoric among the country's political parties may spook some investors. Sukumar Rajah, senior managing director and director of portfolio management, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, is more relaxed. He believes this jockeying for position is part and parcel of Indian politics and feels that the country's solid fundamentals continue to present a positive story for investors.

印度春季大选蓄势待发,国内政党民粹主义言论俱增,或引发某些投资者的重重担忧。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队高级董事总经理兼投资组合管理总监苏库玛•拉贾则更持稳自若,明眼静观大势。他认为,竞争上位是印度政治的一个重要组成部分,并相信印度坚实的基本面继续为投资者带来利好消息。

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In the lead up to Indian general elections, we've come to expect an increase in populist rhetoric from the political parties vying for power.

在印度大选之前,我们已预料参与竞选的政党会为谋求权力而广布民粹主义言论。

This year is no exception. The general election is due to take place in April and May 2019, and we've already seen a number of manifesto promises designed to appeal to India's large rural community, including: farm loan waivers, subsidies, and a reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and unemployment allowances.

今年也不例外。大选将于二零一九年四月和五月举行,我们已经看到不少旨在吸引印度广大农村社区的宣言和承诺,包括:免除农业贷款、给予补贴、降低商品及服务税 (GST) 和提供失业津贴。

A number of these measures could have significant fiscal implications for India's economy and have raised eyebrows among many investors.

其中一些措施可能对印度经济产生重大财政影响,也引起许多投资者注意。

However, we take a more pragmatic view. We believe India's growth path, underpinned by policies put in place since 2014 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is well-enough established to withstand any short-term challenges.

然而,我们仍然秉持更加务实的观点。我们认为,二零一四年以来,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪 (Narendra Modi) 实施的一系列政策为印度的增长道路提供了支撑,足以承受任何短期挑战。

These policies, including the introduction of the GST, a revamped bankruptcy code, bank recapitalization and increasing foreign direct investment limits across sectors, as well as the Make in India initiative, have helped India become the fastest-growing major emerging-market economy in 2018, at 7.3% GDP growth.1

这些政策包括引入商品及服务税 (GST)、修订破产法、银行资本重组、提高各行业的外国直接投资限制,以及“印度制造”(Make in India) 倡议,帮助印度成为二零一八年增长最快的主要新兴市场经济体,GDP 增长 7.3%[1]

Whatever the outcome of the election, we believe, there is little scope for any new government to implement radical, populist policies, due to the set up between the government and its dependency on the Reserve Bank of India to balance its budget deficit. So, in our view, it's unlikely we'll see any major changes made to legislation whoever forms the new government.

我们相信,无论选举结果如何,任何新政府实施激进民粹主义政策的空间都很小,因为政府要依赖印度储备银行 (Reserve Bank of India) 平衡预算赤字。所以我们认为,无论是谁组建新政府,他们都不太可能会对立法做出任何重大改变。

If Modi is re-elected, we don't expect many material changes to India's economic path.

如果莫迪连任,我们预计印度的经济发展不会有太多实质性变化。

Even if Modi doesn't win outright, we think it's likely his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will still play some role in forming the new government, possibly as part of a coalition.

即使莫迪没有直接当选,我们认为,他领导的印度人民党 (BJP) 很可能仍在组建新政府方面发挥一定作用,或会成为联合政府的一部分。

Reasons to Be Optimistic

持乐观态度的理由

We think we're at a turning point for earnings growth. The last few years for earnings growth have been challenging, due to the effects of demonetization, implementation of GST and the impact of negative headlines from non-performing loans. We think it's likely we'll see a gradual improvement in earnings growth, which would be supportive for equities.

我们认为,我们正处于盈利增长转折点。过去几年,由于去货币化的影响、商品及服务税的实施以及不良贷款负面新闻的影响,盈利增长一直充满挑战。我们认为,盈利增长可能会逐步改善,这将形成对股市的支撑。

In the longer run, we believe the case for investing in India remains strong as fundamentals appear solid and long-term growth drivers give us reason to look at India in a positive light. Projected gross domestic product growth for 2019 remains relatively robust at 7.5%, and is estimated at 7.7% in 2020.2 By comparison, China's economy is forecast to grow at a slower rate of 6.2% this year and in 2020.3

从长期来看,我们相信投资印度理由依然充足,因为其基本面表现稳健,加之长期增长驱动因素,让我们有理由看好印度。预计二零一九年国内生产总值增长率仍将保持在 7.5% 的相对强劲水平,二零二零年预计达到 7.7%。[2]相比之下,预计今年和二零二零年中国经济增长率将放缓至 6.2%。[3]

India continues to benefit from secular growth drivers such as favorable demographics, infrastructure investment, urban consumption growth and increasing income levels. At present, we think consumption should partly aid India's development going forward, with domestic consumption set to become a US $6 trillion opportunity by 2030.4

印度继续受益于长期增长驱动因素,包括有利的人口结构、基础设施投资、城市消费增长和收入水平提高。目前,我们认为消费应该在一定程度上有助于印度未来的发展,到二零三零年,其国内消费有望带来 6 万亿美元的商机。[4]

A prudent combination of less tax and increase in government spending, along with an increase in private sector capital expenditure (capex), should likely further sustain growth.

减少税收和增加政府支出,以及增加私营部门资本支出 (capex),这些审慎明智的政策组合应能进一步维持经济增长。

In summary, despite some risk-off sentiment we've seen towards Indian equities in the lead up to the election, we believe there's still a case for investing in India. Even if there was a surprise election result, we believe the impact from uncertainty would be felt in the short term, because fundamentals remain intact.

总而言之,尽管在大选前,我们看到对印度股票的一些避险情绪,但我们认为仍有理由向印度投资。即使选举结果出人意料,我们相信,不确定性的影响将是短期的,因为基本面仍会保持稳定。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

1. Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019.

[1]资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》,二零一九年一月更新版。

2. Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: India, January 2019.

[2]资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》,二零一九年一月更新版。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

3. Ibid.

[3] 出处同上。

4. Source: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, January 2019. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[4]世界经济论坛,快速增长之消费市场中消费的未来:印度,二零一九年一月。

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