下一个”新“ 新兴市场的投资机会
Opportunities in the Next “Emerging” Emerging Market
2019-12-04 23:14

Emerging markets offer a broad opportunity set for investors. However, many investors focus on the high-profile stories in Asia and Latin America, overlooking potential opportunities in other regions, as Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity's David Haglund explains. He notes how Africa is often an overlooked part of the emerging-market story, and why recent investments from China reflect the growth potential for countries such as Kenya and Nigeria in particular.


This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish


As emerging-market investors, we're open to potential opportunities across the frontier market universe. So while there's a lot of attention on the high-profile emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, we also cast our eyes over other regions, including Africa.


Notably, we see three themes in emerging-market economies that could become long-term growth drivers in Africa: Demographics, technological innovation and international investment.


Many investors identify South Africa as the only important market on the continent, but we believe other countries such as Kenya and Nigeria could offer even more exciting long-term investment stories.


Demographics: An Underlying Driver for Growth


With a large, young and fast-growing population, demographics will be a key underlying driver for growth in Africa. Of the 2.45 billion people expected to be added to the global population between 2017 and 2055, more than 1.4 billion (57%) will be added in Africa.1

非洲的人口众多、年轻且增长快速,这将成为非洲经济增长的一个关键的潜在驱动力。预计在二零一七年至二零五五年间,全球人口将增加 24.5 亿,其中14 亿人口将来自非洲,占新增部分的57%。[1]

Nigeria, for example, has one of the fast-growing populations in the world with a projected increase to 410.6 million from 196 million by 20502 which would make it the world's third-most-populous country by 2050,3 while Kenya's population—a hub of the East African community that includes Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan—is projected to double from 50.9 million to 95.5 million.4 Some experts suggest that Nigeria and Kenya's size, population growth and growing workforce will likely drive the continued expansion of Africa's middle class. Nigeria's median average age is 18.3 years, while Kenya's median age is 20.5

例如,尼日利亚是世界上人口增长最快的国家之一,预计至二零五零年[2]其人口将从 1.96 亿增长至 4.106 亿,届时将成为世界第三人口大国,[3]而作为东非共同体(包括肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、乌干达、卢旺达、布隆迪和南苏丹)的一个枢纽,肯尼亚的人口预计将从 5090 万增加到 9550 万。[4]一些专家认为,尼日利亚和肯尼亚的规模、人口和劳动力增长或将推动非洲中产阶级的持续扩张。尼日利亚与肯尼亚的平均年龄中位数分别是 18.3 岁与 20 岁。[5]

The continent also has one of the largest urbanization rates in the world.6 As a result of mass population growth, consumer-focused subsidiaries of multinational and local companies are now tailoring products to a growing African middle-class demographic. Products such as foods, personal, home care and even brewing companies are seeing opportunities to increase penetration in underserved markets.


Many of these companies are moving the African consumer into the organized retail space with a low-cost and tailored domestic product to substitute for imported goods. These companies are also actively working on localizing their inputs to better currency match their revenues earned against their cost of goods sold. A number of African countries which were highly dependent on exports of raw commodities have been transforming and producing more finished goods. However, it's been a slow process at times, and not without challenges.


At the same time, we see signs of premiumization with the increased wealth seen in African markets, increasing scale of consumption further. For example, spirits are a premium product in Africa and middle/upper-income East Africans have been driving double digit growth in this segment. Even during macro and consumer slowdowns, we have seen spirits growth remain relatively resilient and less price sensitive as premium products tend to be. African consumers are generally quite aspirational and hence we are seeing faster growth in consumption by the middle/upper-income segments of the population.


Technology: A Hotbed of Innovation


The speed and availability of technology suggest there are huge opportunities for some countries in Africa to capitalize on technology faster than advanced economies.


“Leapfrogging” allows the adoption of new technologies that bypass legacy models or systems. African companies are now leapfrogging over obsolete technologies and going straight to modern solutions, which are often cheaper and more sustainable than older technology.


Potential Industry Leaders


The rapid pace of technological development indicates some countries in Africa could become future leaders in their industries. For example, the world's first national drone delivery system launched in Rwanda. But it doesn't bring food or online orders, it delivers blood to patients in remote areas.


In other sectors like banking, penetration remains very low in Africa and as a result is a natural beneficiary of growth in many African markets. Local established banks have access to a growing pool of low-cost deposits and are able to lend to established quality local and multi-national corporates.


In certain markets like Kenya, small-to-medium enterprise banking is prominent and has been a driver of growth at a more granular level, allowing small businesses access to capital they might never have been able to otherwise.


We initially saw a major company in Kenya pioneer mobile payments and related services and we are now seeing that replicated in other parts of Africa by other companies.


We are seeing telecommunications companies race to deliver the next big thing—applying for banking licenses to offer mobile payments to a population where cash still reigns supreme, particularly in countries such as Nigeria. This allows for mass financial inclusion, even to the rural populations.


Mobile money growth exploded in several African markets. Around half of global money users are now African, according to mobile industry reports. This forms a digital backbone for a host of other services.


The telecommunication companies are entering into partnerships with banks that allow mobile customers to have a bank account and do digital transactions. In doing so, telecom companies have added a new income stream, and banks have increased their customer base as well as reduced their brick-and-mortar cost bases. Meanwhile, consumers benefit from a cheaper and more convenient experience.


Solar power solution is helping to electrify the countryside. Independent solar providers and telecommunication companies are offering off-grid pre-paid electricity allowing customers leapfrogging from no electricity straight to green power.


International Investment from China


Chinese investment in Africa has ballooned in the last few years, funding investments in much-needed infrastructure development in railways, highways, airports and ports as part of China's Belt and Road initiative. During the 2003-2014 period, China's foreign direct investment (FDI) into Africa rose significantly from US$491 million to US$32.4 billion.7 Interestingly, the number of African country recipients of FDI increased over the same time period too.8

过去几年,中国在非洲的投资激增,依照中国“一带一路”倡议,中国为其铁路、公路、机场和港口等基础设施提供投资,解决其燃眉之急。在二零零三至二零一四年间,中国对非洲的外商直接投资(FDI)从 4.91 亿美元大幅增长至 324 亿美元。[7]值得注意的是,接受外商直接投资的非洲国家的数量在同一时期也有所增加。[8]

Chinese investment has helped Nigeria establish industrial areas by creating infrastructure that was previously lacking, using natural gas-powered generators and all-weather roads to pave the way for development. As a result, these areas that once were difficult to navigate due to lack of infrastructure have transformed into a manufacturing hub that includes factories for construction materials, printing and furniture.


In Kenya, a Chinese-funded railway project linking the coastal city of Mombasa to capital city Nairobi is the country's largest infrastructure project to date. It opened 18 months early in mid-2017 and slashed the journey time by 7.5 hours compared to the previous railway line. ­­­A similar rail project is being constructed in Tanzania by a Turkish and Portuguese consortium which aims to connect Dar Es Salaam with the capital Dodoma in its initial phases.

连接沿海城市蒙巴萨和首都内罗毕的中资铁路项目是肯尼亚迄今为止最大的基础设施项目。它于二零一七年年中开通,比预期提前了 18 个月,将铁路行程缩短了 7.5 小时。坦桑尼亚正在建设一个类似的铁路项目,该项目由一个土耳其和葡萄牙财团共同建设,前期目标是将达累斯萨拉姆与首都多多马连接起来。

Chinese are not only active in infrastructure investments. A large part of investments is driven by private companies in the manufacturing space. There are tens of thousands of privately-owned Chinese companies in Africa, bringing in an influx of Chinese to Africa. A large part of them are small entrepreneurs who are involved in segments spanning from retail to agriculture.


The Case for Local Influence


In our experience, with so many companies emerging in thriving countries like Kenya and Nigeria, we believe this growing investment universe could provide us with opportunities to uncover mispriced companies.


Smaller, growing companies tend to be disproportionately owned by domestic retail investors with shorter investment timeframes. On the other hand, foreign institutional investors would likely trade more frequently. As a result, this tends to boost liquidity.


Of course, investing in Africa is not without risks and challenges—some of them difficult to overcome. But we believe the African continent could provide fertile ground for active managers like us who are patient. Our role is to seek out companies with long-term potential using our on-the-ground team—something that's particularly useful in what we'd consider to be a relatively untapped segment of the market.


The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.


Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

What Are the Risks?


All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.


1. Sources: UK Research for Evidence Division, UK Department for International Development, May 2018.


2. Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2018.  There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.


3. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2017. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.


4. Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2018.  There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.


5. Source: CIA World Factbook, 2018 estimate. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.


6. Source: World Bank, Opening Doors to the World, 2017.


7. Source: U.N. Habitat, State of African Cities, 2018.


8. Ibid.

[8] 出处同上。

0 条评论