下一个”新“ 新兴市场的投资机会
Opportunities in the Next “Emerging” Emerging Market
1914字
2019-12-04 23:14
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Emerging markets offer a broad opportunity set for investors. However, many investors focus on the high-profile stories in Asia and Latin America, overlooking potential opportunities in other regions, as Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity's David Haglund explains. He notes how Africa is often an overlooked part of the emerging-market story, and why recent investments from China reflect the growth potential for countries such as Kenya and Nigeria in particular.

新兴市场为投资者提供了广阔天地。然而,正如富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的戴维德·哈格隆德所解释的那样,许多投资者将目光聚焦于亚洲和拉丁美洲热门事件,而忽视了其他地区的潜在机遇。他指出,非洲新兴市场常被人忽视,而中国近期的投资正反映出肯尼亚、尼日利亚等国的增长潜力。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

As emerging-market investors, we're open to potential opportunities across the frontier market universe. So while there's a lot of attention on the high-profile emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, we also cast our eyes over other regions, including Africa.

作为新兴市场投资者,我们对前沿市场领域的潜在机会持开放态度。因此,尽管亚洲和拉丁美洲的新兴市场备受关注,我们也将目光投向了其他地区,包括非洲。

Notably, we see three themes in emerging-market economies that could become long-term growth drivers in Africa: Demographics, technological innovation and international investment.

我们尤其认为新兴市场经济体的以下三大主题可能是非洲长期增长的动力来源:人口特征、技术创新与海外投资。

Many investors identify South Africa as the only important market on the continent, but we believe other countries such as Kenya and Nigeria could offer even more exciting long-term investment stories.

许多投资者认为南非是非洲大陆上唯一重要的市场,但我们认为肯尼亚和尼日利亚等其他国家也可能提供更令人兴奋的长期投资机会。

Demographics: An Underlying Driver for Growth

人口特征:潜在的增长驱动力

With a large, young and fast-growing population, demographics will be a key underlying driver for growth in Africa. Of the 2.45 billion people expected to be added to the global population between 2017 and 2055, more than 1.4 billion (57%) will be added in Africa.1

非洲的人口众多、年轻且增长快速,这将成为非洲经济增长的一个关键的潜在驱动力。预计在二零一七年至二零五五年间,全球人口将增加 24.5 亿,其中14 亿人口将来自非洲,占新增部分的57%。[1]

Nigeria, for example, has one of the fast-growing populations in the world with a projected increase to 410.6 million from 196 million by 20502 which would make it the world's third-most-populous country by 2050,3 while Kenya's population—a hub of the East African community that includes Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan—is projected to double from 50.9 million to 95.5 million.4 Some experts suggest that Nigeria and Kenya's size, population growth and growing workforce will likely drive the continued expansion of Africa's middle class. Nigeria's median average age is 18.3 years, while Kenya's median age is 20.5

例如,尼日利亚是世界上人口增长最快的国家之一,预计至二零五零年[2]其人口将从 1.96 亿增长至 4.106 亿,届时将成为世界第三人口大国,[3]而作为东非共同体(包括肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、乌干达、卢旺达、布隆迪和南苏丹)的一个枢纽,肯尼亚的人口预计将从 5090 万增加到 9550 万。[4]一些专家认为,尼日利亚和肯尼亚的规模、人口和劳动力增长或将推动非洲中产阶级的持续扩张。尼日利亚与肯尼亚的平均年龄中位数分别是 18.3 岁与 20 岁。[5]

The continent also has one of the largest urbanization rates in the world.6 As a result of mass population growth, consumer-focused subsidiaries of multinational and local companies are now tailoring products to a growing African middle-class demographic. Products such as foods, personal, home care and even brewing companies are seeing opportunities to increase penetration in underserved markets.

非洲大陆也是全球城市化潜力最大的地区。[6]由于非洲人口大幅增长,以消费者为目标客户的跨国企业的当地分支机构和企业都纷纷根据不断增长的非洲中产阶级人口定制开发产品。食品、个人护理、家庭护理甚至酒类等产品都有机会提升在这个服务匮乏的市场的渗透力。

Many of these companies are moving the African consumer into the organized retail space with a low-cost and tailored domestic product to substitute for imported goods. These companies are also actively working on localizing their inputs to better currency match their revenues earned against their cost of goods sold. A number of African countries which were highly dependent on exports of raw commodities have been transforming and producing more finished goods. However, it's been a slow process at times, and not without challenges.

许多企业开设全新门店,用低成本、定制的国内产品取代进口商品,吸引非洲消费者。他们还积极地进行本地化工作,以实现更高的投入产出比。过去一些高度依赖原材料出口的非洲国家正在转型并生产更多的制成品。然而,这时常需要较为漫长的过程,并且,也绝非一件易事。

At the same time, we see signs of premiumization with the increased wealth seen in African markets, increasing scale of consumption further. For example, spirits are a premium product in Africa and middle/upper-income East Africans have been driving double digit growth in this segment. Even during macro and consumer slowdowns, we have seen spirits growth remain relatively resilient and less price sensitive as premium products tend to be. African consumers are generally quite aspirational and hence we are seeing faster growth in consumption by the middle/upper-income segments of the population.

同时,随着非洲市场财富的增加,我们也发现了高端消费的需求,这将进一步扩大消费规模。例如,在非洲,烈酒是高端产品,而拥有中、高收入的东非人一直在推动这一细分市场以两位数增长。我们也看到,烈酒具备高端产品的特性:即使在宏观经济和消费的低迷时期,其增长仍然相对有弹性,而且价格敏感度较低。非洲消费者的消费欲望相当强烈,因此我们看到中、高收入群体的消费增长更快。

Technology: A Hotbed of Innovation

技术:创新的温室

The speed and availability of technology suggest there are huge opportunities for some countries in Africa to capitalize on technology faster than advanced economies.

技术发展速度和实用性表明,与发达经济体相比,非洲的一些国家有机会能更快地利用技术。

“Leapfrogging” allows the adoption of new technologies that bypass legacy models or systems. African companies are now leapfrogging over obsolete technologies and going straight to modern solutions, which are often cheaper and more sustainable than older technology.

“技术飞跃”意味着突破传统模式或系统,应用全新技术。非洲企业现正在大步“跃过”过时的技术,直接转向现代解决方案,后者往往比旧技术更便宜且可持续。

Potential Industry Leaders

潜在的行业领导者

The rapid pace of technological development indicates some countries in Africa could become future leaders in their industries. For example, the world's first national drone delivery system launched in Rwanda. But it doesn't bring food or online orders, it delivers blood to patients in remote areas.

非洲技术快速发展的步伐表明,非洲一些国家可能成为其行业未来的领导者。例如,卢旺达启动了全球首个全国性无人机运输系统。它并不配送食物或线上订单,而是为偏远地区的病患运送血液。

In other sectors like banking, penetration remains very low in Africa and as a result is a natural beneficiary of growth in many African markets. Local established banks have access to a growing pool of low-cost deposits and are able to lend to established quality local and multi-national corporates.

非洲市场的银行业等其他行业的渗透率仍然很低,因而自然也将从市场增长中受益。当地的知名银行可获得更多的低成本存款,并能够向优质的当地、跨国企业客户提供贷款。

In certain markets like Kenya, small-to-medium enterprise banking is prominent and has been a driver of growth at a more granular level, allowing small businesses access to capital they might never have been able to otherwise.

在肯尼亚等市场,中小企业银行业务的需求强烈,从更微观的层面说,其一直为增长的动力之一,使得小企业可获得原本遥不可及的资金支持。

We initially saw a major company in Kenya pioneer mobile payments and related services and we are now seeing that replicated in other parts of Africa by other companies.

我们最初在肯尼亚看到一家大型企业率先推出移动支付和相关服务,现在在非洲其他地区,也有其他企业开始提供这一服务。

We are seeing telecommunications companies race to deliver the next big thing—applying for banking licenses to offer mobile payments to a population where cash still reigns supreme, particularly in countries such as Nigeria. This allows for mass financial inclusion, even to the rural populations.

尽管现金支付仍占主导地位,电信企业正竞相申请银行牌照,为人们提供移动支付服务,特别是在尼日利亚等国家。这意味着,大规模的普惠金融有可能实现,甚至农村人口也能获益。

Mobile money growth exploded in several African markets. Around half of global money users are now African, according to mobile industry reports. This forms a digital backbone for a host of other services.

数个非洲市场的移动货币飞速增长。据移动行业报告,全球大约半数的资金使用者是非洲人。这为许多其他的服务提供了数字化的支撑。

The telecommunication companies are entering into partnerships with banks that allow mobile customers to have a bank account and do digital transactions. In doing so, telecom companies have added a new income stream, and banks have increased their customer base as well as reduced their brick-and-mortar cost bases. Meanwhile, consumers benefit from a cheaper and more convenient experience.

电信企业正积极与允许移动客户拥有银行账户和进行数字交易的银行建立合作关系。因此,电信企业获得了新的收入来源,银行拓展了客户群,并降低了实体成本。同时,消费者也以更低价格获得更方便的用户体验。

Solar power solution is helping to electrify the countryside. Independent solar providers and telecommunication companies are offering off-grid pre-paid electricity allowing customers leapfrogging from no electricity straight to green power.

借助太阳能解决方案,农村正在逐步通电。独立的太阳能供应商和电信企业提供离网预付费电力,使客户从无电直接跨越至绿色电力。

International Investment from China

来自中国的海外投资

Chinese investment in Africa has ballooned in the last few years, funding investments in much-needed infrastructure development in railways, highways, airports and ports as part of China's Belt and Road initiative. During the 2003-2014 period, China's foreign direct investment (FDI) into Africa rose significantly from US$491 million to US$32.4 billion.7 Interestingly, the number of African country recipients of FDI increased over the same time period too.8

过去几年,中国在非洲的投资激增,依照中国“一带一路”倡议,中国为其铁路、公路、机场和港口等基础设施提供投资,解决其燃眉之急。在二零零三至二零一四年间,中国对非洲的外商直接投资(FDI)从 4.91 亿美元大幅增长至 324 亿美元。[7]值得注意的是,接受外商直接投资的非洲国家的数量在同一时期也有所增加。[8]

Chinese investment has helped Nigeria establish industrial areas by creating infrastructure that was previously lacking, using natural gas-powered generators and all-weather roads to pave the way for development. As a result, these areas that once were difficult to navigate due to lack of infrastructure have transformed into a manufacturing hub that includes factories for construction materials, printing and furniture.

在中国的投资帮助下,尼日利亚建立了以前缺乏的基础设施,借助天然气发电站和新修公路为发展奠定了基础,顺利地建起工业区。这些曾经因缺乏基础设施而深陷泥潭的地区摇身一变,成为了制造业中心,其中包括建筑材料厂、印刷厂和家具厂。

In Kenya, a Chinese-funded railway project linking the coastal city of Mombasa to capital city Nairobi is the country's largest infrastructure project to date. It opened 18 months early in mid-2017 and slashed the journey time by 7.5 hours compared to the previous railway line. ­­­A similar rail project is being constructed in Tanzania by a Turkish and Portuguese consortium which aims to connect Dar Es Salaam with the capital Dodoma in its initial phases.

连接沿海城市蒙巴萨和首都内罗毕的中资铁路项目是肯尼亚迄今为止最大的基础设施项目。它于二零一七年年中开通,比预期提前了 18 个月,将铁路行程缩短了 7.5 小时。坦桑尼亚正在建设一个类似的铁路项目,该项目由一个土耳其和葡萄牙财团共同建设,前期目标是将达累斯萨拉姆与首都多多马连接起来。

Chinese are not only active in infrastructure investments. A large part of investments is driven by private companies in the manufacturing space. There are tens of thousands of privately-owned Chinese companies in Africa, bringing in an influx of Chinese to Africa. A large part of them are small entrepreneurs who are involved in segments spanning from retail to agriculture.

中国人不仅仅积极参与基础设施投资。制造业领域的很大一部分投资都由私营企业推动。在非洲有数以万计的中国私营企业,许多中国人涌入非洲。其中很大一部分是小企业家,他们渗透到各行各业,从零售到农业。

The Case for Local Influence

地方影响力

In our experience, with so many companies emerging in thriving countries like Kenya and Nigeria, we believe this growing investment universe could provide us with opportunities to uncover mispriced companies.

肯尼亚和尼日利亚等蓬勃发展的国家催生了许多企业,凭借过去的经验,我们相信这一不断扩大的投资范围内将涌现许多投资机会,其中便包括价值与价格错位的企业。

Smaller, growing companies tend to be disproportionately owned by domestic retail investors with shorter investment timeframes. On the other hand, foreign institutional investors would likely trade more frequently. As a result, this tends to boost liquidity.

规模较小、成长中的企业往往由国内零售投资者分散持有,且投资期限较短。另一方面,外国机构投资者可能更频繁地进行交易。这往往会增加流动性。

Of course, investing in Africa is not without risks and challenges—some of them difficult to overcome. But we believe the African continent could provide fertile ground for active managers like us who are patient. Our role is to seek out companies with long-term potential using our on-the-ground team—something that's particularly useful in what we'd consider to be a relatively untapped segment of the market.

当然,投资非洲并非没有风险和挑战,其中一些是难以克服的。但是,我们相信,非洲大陆可以为像我们这样耐心的主动管理者提供肥沃的土壤。我们恪守职责,充分借助本土团队的力量(这在我们认为相对不成熟的市场领域尤其有效),寻找具有长期潜力的企业。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

1. Sources: UK Research for Evidence Division, UK Department for International Development, May 2018.

[1]资料来源:英国实证研究部门,英国国际发展部,二零一八年五月。

2. Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2018.  There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[2]资料来源:人口资料局,二零一八年。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现

3. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2017. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[3]资料来源:联合国,二零一七年《世界人口展望》。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现

4. Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2018.  There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[4]资料来源:人口资料局,二零一八年。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现

5. Source: CIA World Factbook, 2018 estimate. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[5]资料来源:美国中情局《世界概况》,二零一八年预测。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

6. Source: World Bank, Opening Doors to the World, 2017.

[6]资料来源:世界银行,《向世界敞开大门》,二零一七年。

7. Source: U.N. Habitat, State of African Cities, 2018.

[7]资料来源:联合国人居署,《非洲城市状况报告》,二零一八年。

8. Ibid.

[8] 出处同上。

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