新兴市场第二季度遭受挫折
Emerging Markets Suffer Second-Quarter Setback
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2019-12-04 22:29
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Emerging markets suffered a setback in the second quarter, but Manraj Sekhon, CIO of Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, and Chetan Sehgal, senior managing director and director of portfolio management, don't see a fundamental derailment. They present the team's overview of the emerging-markets universe in the second quarter of 2018 and offer their perspective on global headwinds and tailwinds.

新兴市场于第二季度受挫,然而富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队首席投资官曼拉赫·塞克宏与高级董事总经理兼投资组合管理团队总监切坦·塞加尔并不认为市场已出现根本危机。他们展示了团队对二零一八年第二季度新兴市场概况所作总结,并分享了他们对全球有利的推动因素及不利的阻碍因素的看法。

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、荷兰语、法语、德语、意大利语、波兰语版

Three Things We're Thinking about Today

今天我们思考的三件事

  1. Saudi Arabia's inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index, which will likely take effect in at least two tranches over May and August 2019, could transform the Kingdom's capital market and boost the wider MENA region. With only US$9 billion in foreign investment in the Kingdom's stock exchange, Saudi Arabia's new EM status is likely to bring with it significant foreign inflows, which could, in the long term, trickle through to surrounding economies as well. Improving economic fundamentals may also attract investors.
  2. The Indian banking system is one of the fastest growing banking systems in the world. Taking into account that India's formal economy remains a fraction of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and that only half of the population's savings are in financial assets, there is significant growth potential for banks. Private-sector banks currently have a market share of ~30%, while state-owned banks make up the rest. State-owned banks, however, are less competitive and lag in areas like automation, technology, customer service and management quality. Thus, we expect private sector banks to grow faster and gain market share. Recent concerns about high levels of bad loans at state-banks could also benefit private lenders.
  3. A truckers' strike over diesel prices heightened investor concerns in Brazil, weighing on equity prices across the market. However, we believe that opportunities for longer-term investors have emerged as quality stocks are now trading at lower valuations. Overall, we are generally positive on the investment opportunities in Brazil given the continued emphasis on reforms. The country also has great export potential in manufacturing and agriculture, which we believe should reflect in better GDP figures going forward.
  1. 沙特阿拉伯被纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数,可能将分为至少两步,于二零一九年五月与八月生效,此举将改变沙特阿拉伯的资本市场,促进更广大的中东和北非地区的发展。沙特证券交易所目前仅有约 90 亿美元外资投资,沙特阿拉伯新晋的新兴市场地位可能吸引大量外资流入,从长远看,这些投资也会渗透到周边经济体。经济基本面的改善也可能吸引投资者。
  2. 印度银行系统是全球增长最快的银行系统之一。考虑到印度的正规经济仅占该国国内生产总值(GDP)的一小部分,而且仅有一半人口储蓄为金融资产,因此,银行的增长潜力巨大。目前,私有银行市场占有率约 30%,而国有银行则占其余部分。然而,国有银行的竞争力较低,在自动化、技术、客户服务和管理质量等方面落后。因此,我们期待私有银行能够更快地增长并获得市场份额。近期对国有银行高额的不良贷款的担忧也可能使私有银行受益。
  3. 卡车司机因柴油价格而引发的罢/工加剧了巴西投资者的担忧,从而对整个市场的股价造成压力。然而,我们认为优质股票目前以较低的估值进行交易,长期投资者的机会已经出现了。总体而言,鉴于巴西政府对改革的决心未有改变,因而我们总体上仍然看好巴西的投资机会。该国在制造业和农业方面也有巨大的出口潜力,我们认为这应反映在未来国内生产总值有更高地提升。

Outlook

展望

Emerging markets suffered a setback in the first half of 2018, precipitated by investor concerns over rising US interest rates, US dollar strengthening and rising trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China. However, we do not foresee a derailment in emerging–market fundamentals, which should continue to grow at a strong pace.

新兴市场在二零一八年上半年遭遇挫折,原因是投资者对美国利率上升,美元走强以及贸易紧张局势升级的担忧(尤其是美中之间)。然而,我们预计新兴市场基本面不会出现危机,而将继续以强劲的速度增长。

Historically, we have seen sharp market gyrations (typically downwards) in both EM equities and currencies ahead of tightening by the US Federal Reserve. However, during the actual implementation of previous US rate hikes, EM currencies have often appreciated, as have equities—illustrating that markets tend to price in a worst-case scenario prior to the event.

从历史上看,新兴市场股票和货币在美联储收紧前均出现了剧烈的市场波动(通常是下行)。然而,在此前美国加息实际实施时,新兴市场货币往往会升值,股票亦是如此——这说明,在一次事件发生前,市场价格往往会反映最坏的情况。

Although many EM companies hold US dollar-denominated debt, and a stronger US dollar could affect earnings, we do not believe that a stronger US dollar derails the EM story. It should also be noted that EMs generally have a higher proportion of local currency issuance, and that much of the US dollar-denominated debt is backed by US dollar-denominated revenues at the corporate or sovereign level. It is important to note that the effects today are likely different than previous episodes of dollar strength. Today, most EM currencies have floating foreign exchange regimes. Emerging markets, as a group, run a current account surplus, and the effect of a strong dollar will differ for countries depending on each nation's economic structure and policies.

尽管许多新兴市场企业持有美元计价债券,走强的美元可能影响收益,但我们不认为美元走强会影响其新兴市场故事主线。我们还应注意到,新兴市场的本币发行比例通常较高,而美元计价债券中许多是由企业或主/权层面的美元计价收入支持的。重要的是,此次影响可能不同于以前的美元走强事件。如今,大多数新兴市场货币都有浮动外汇制度。作为一个整体,新兴市场的经常账户有盈余,美元走强的影响将因各国的经济结构和政策而有所不同。

While trade tensions have prompted a cautious EM outlook over the short term, we believe intra-EM trade has become more important in recent years, and rising protectionism may further pivot focus towards greater regional agreements.

贸易紧张局势导致市场对新兴市场的短期前景持谨慎态度,但我们看到,近几年,新兴市场间贸易已变得更为重要,并且贸易保护主义抬头之势可能会使关注点进一步聚焦于更广泛的区域协议。 

Despite the expected market volatility, we maintain a constructive view of emerging markets, supported by what we believe are attractive valuations, strong earnings growth potential and solid fundamentals. Emerging markets, as measured by the MSCI EM Index, had a forward price-to earnings ratio of 11.3x and price-to-book ratio of 1.7x, as of June 30, 2018.1 Emerging markets trade at a ~25% discount to developed markets (as represented by the MSCI World Index2) and remain attractive, in our opinion.

尽管市场预期将出现波动,但我们仍保持对新兴市场的建设性看法,因为我们认为其估值具有吸引力,盈利增长潜力强劲,且基本面稳健。截至二零一八年六月三十日,MSCI 新兴市场指数的新兴市场远期市盈率为 11.3x,市净率为 1.7x。我们认为,[1]新兴市场交易与发达市场相比有 ~25% 的折价率(根据 MSCI 世界指数[2]),仍具有吸引力。 

Emerging Markets Key Trends and Developments

新兴市场季度大事记

EM equities bore the brunt of mounting global trade tensions to finish the second quarter lower, while developed-market stocks eked out a modest gain. The EM pullback was compounded by local economic and political concerns as well as a stronger US dollar. The MSCI EM Index declined 7.9% over the quarter, compared with a 1.9% gain in the MSCI World Index, both in US dollars.

第二季度,新兴市场的股票市场承受了全球贸易紧张局势升级的重压,以较低位收盘,而发达市场股票则勉强维持小幅上涨。此次新兴市场回调,原因为对当地经济、政治的担忧,及美元走强。本季度,MSCI 新兴市场指数下跌 7.9%,而 MSCI 世界指数小幅上升 1.9%,两者均以美元计算。

The Most Important Moves in Emerging Markets in the Quarter

新兴市场:重大趋势及发展

  • Asian stocks collectively retreated and were hampered by an escalating US-China trade spat and receding local currencies. Pakistan, Thailand and Indonesia led the way down. Pakistan's widening current account deficit and shrinking foreign exchange reserves dented investor sentiment. Thailand succumbed to market caution even as officials raised their 2018 economic growth forecast on the back of stronger exports, tourism and domestic demand. Indonesia lost ground as the rupiah slid against the US dollar, prompting Indonesia's central bank to raise its key interest rate sooner than expected.
  • Brazil was one of the worst-performing markets in Latin America and among emerging markets as a whole. Stocks in Chile also underperformed their EM peers, while Mexico and Peru ended the quarter with relatively smaller declines. Brazil's market was weighed down by concerns that labor strikes could impact economic activity, volatility ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, as well as weakness in the real. Colombia was a bright spot, however, recording a solid gain, supported by the victory of a market-friendly candidate in the presidential elections.
  • Concerns about a trade war between the United States and the European Union, coupled with political anxiety in Italy, led European emerging markets to underperform their global peers. Turkey, Hungary and Poland were among the weakest regional markets, ending the quarter with double-digit declines. Rising inflation, a depreciating currency, high interest rates and political turmoil drove down equity prices in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won re-election with a majority in the June elections. In Russia, although the market fell, it performed better than its peers as oil prices remained on an upward trend. Weakness in the rand, portfolio outflows and disappointing first-quarter GDP growth weighed on equity prices in South Africa.
  • Frontier markets had a tough second quarter, significantly underperforming their global counterparts. Argentina was by far the weakest market, losing over 40% in US-dollar terms, driven entirely by the devaluation in the peso, amidst a volatile political and economic environment. Vietnam, Morocco and Lebanon also lost ground. The Vietnamese market experienced profit-taking following strong gains over the first quarter. Tunisia and Mauritius, on the other hand, ended the quarter with gains.
  • 受到美中贸易争端不断升级和本币走低的阻碍,亚洲股市集体下滑。巴基斯坦、泰国和印度尼西亚首当其冲。巴基斯坦不断扩大的经常账户赤字和不断减少的外汇储备削弱了投资者的信心。而尽管泰国出口、旅游和国内需求强劲,且官方提高了二零一八年经济增长预测,泰国股市仍受累于市场谨慎情绪。印度尼西亚则受累于卢比兑美元汇率下滑,促使其央行较预期更快地提高其关键利率。
  • 巴西是拉丁美洲和整个新兴市场中表现最差的市场之一。智利股市表现也逊色于其它新兴市场,而墨西哥和秘鲁则以相对较小的跌幅结束了这一季度。出于对劳工罢/工会影响经济活动、即将到来的总统选举前的波动及现实经济疲软的担忧,巴西市场受到重压。然而,哥伦比亚是一个亮点,一位市场友好型候选人在总统选举中获胜,因而该国股市录得可喜收益。
  • 由于担心美国和欧盟之间的贸易战,加上意大利的政治焦虑,欧洲新兴市场的表现不如全球同行。土耳其、匈牙利和波兰是最弱的区域市场,本季度以两位数的跌幅收盘。土耳其的通胀率上升、货币贬值、利率升高与政治动荡,拉低了该国股票价格。雷杰普 · 塔伊普 · 埃尔多安总统(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)在六月选举中获得多数票并赢得连任。在俄罗斯,尽管市场下跌,但其表现优于同行,因为石油价格仍呈上升趋势。南非兰特疲软、投资组合外流和令人失望的第一季度 GDP 增长均影响了南非的股票价格。
  • 前沿市场第二季度表现惨淡,明显低于全球同行。阿根廷是迄今为止最疲软的市场,以美元计价跌幅超过 40%,这完全是该国比索贬值与政治、经济环境动荡所致。越南、摩洛哥和黎巴嫩也表现不佳。越南市场在第一季度强劲增长之后经历了回吐。另一方面,突尼斯和毛里求斯在本季度以涨幅收尾。

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Copyright © [2019]。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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1. Source: FactSet, as of June 30, 2018. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[1]资料来源:FactSet,截至二零一八年六月三十日。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中盘股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

2. Source: FactSet, as of June 30, 2018. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[2] 资料来源:FactSet,截至二零一八年六月三十日。MSCI 全球市场指数采集了 23 个发达国家市场中的大中盘股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。MSCI并未准备或认可此报告。重要数据提供商的通知和条款,请查阅www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

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