新兴市场的技术发展历程
Emerging Markets’ Technology Journey
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2019-12-03 22:35
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Many investors have a view of emerging markets that remains stuck in the past, and that's particularly true in the realm of technology. No longer simply copying advances made in the developed world, emerging market companies are now leading the way with growing research and development budgets and eye-catching innovations. Franklin Emerging Market Equity Group's Chetan Sehgal and Andrew Ness offer their thoughts on this developing trend.

许多投资者对新兴市场的看法仍停留在过去,尤其是在技术领域。新兴市场企业不再对发达国家亦步亦趋,而是以不断增长的研发预算和引人注目的创新引领潮流。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队切坦·塞加尔和安德鲁·内斯对此趋势发表了他们的看法。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

As we travel around the world meeting business leaders and investors, we've cemented our view that emerging markets equity today is a very different asset class from when we started our careers some 25 years ago.

在全球各地会见商界领袖和投资者时,我们更加确信,作为一种资产类别,如今的新兴市场股票与二十五年前我们开始职业生涯时已大不相同。

There are few better illustrations of that evolution than the central role innovation and the use of technology now play in emerging markets. But it's clear from our research that understanding of the potential opportunity in these areas continues to elude many investors.

创新和技术应用在新兴市场中所扮演的核心角色更能够充分说明这一演变。但从我们的研究中可以清楚地看到,许多投资者仍对这些领域的潜在机遇理解不足。

We see a huge amount of innovation and proprietary knowledge coming through from emerging markets.

大量的创新和专有知识来自于新兴市场。

While many investors expect emerging markets to follow the development path of more advanced markets, in reality we are witnessing companies seize the lead in innovation and leapfrog the more advanced economies in areas such as e-commerce, digital payments, mobile banking and electric vehicles. Innovative companies are turning previous structural weaknesses into strengths.

虽然许多投资者预期新兴市场将沿袭更发达市场的发展道路,但事实上,我们看到,不少企业在创新方面已取得领先地位,在电子商务、数字支付、移动银行和电动汽车等领域超越了发达经济体。创新企业正将原有的结构弱势转化为优势。

Unhindered by sunk investments in legacy systems or infrastructure, they have ample room to come up with forward-thinking and profitable solutions.

他们不受制于过往的系统或基础设施建设,有足够的空间提出前瞻性的想法和可盈利的解决方案。

The most high-profile example is China, where companies have developed from a replication and simulation approach to leading with their own proprietary research and development (R&D) spend to differentiate themselves from Western products.

最引人注目的例子是中国,中国企业不再复制、模仿西方,而是以自主研发引领趋势,与西方产品差异化竞争。

A new generation of affluent and savvy Chinese consumers, faced with a lack of retail stores and malls, began turning to their smartphones to purchase goods online. Today, e-commerce makes up a far higher percentage of retail sales in China than in the United States.

由于缺乏零售店和购物中心,新一代富裕和精明的中国消费者开始转向使用智能手机在线购买商品。如今,电子商务在中国的零售额中所占的比例远远高于美国。

A similar trajectory can be seen in digital payments, where the slow development of credit card systems has prompted a consumer migration to online payment platforms such as Alibaba's Alipay and Tencent's WeChat Pay.

数字支付也有类似的发展轨迹,信用卡系统的缓慢发展促使消费者向阿里巴巴的支付宝和腾讯的微信支付等在线支付平台迁移。

Alipay, for example, had a total third-party payment market share of 50% in December 2018 (total payment volume), while WeChat Pay also held a 35% share—with the latter expected to reach 40% market share by the end of 2019.1 Digital payments have now become commonplace across China, and the value of its digital payment market is multiple times that of the United States.

例如,在二零一八年十二月的第三方支付市场总份额(按支付总量)中,支付宝占有 50% 的份额,而微信支付也占有35%,后者预计到二零一九年底将达到 40% 的市场份额。[1]数字支付在中国已经司空见惯,其数字支付市场的价值是美国的数倍。

Made in China: Outdated Stereotypes of Emerging Market Exports Remain

中国制造:对新兴市场出口产品仍有成见

Despite emerging market product advancements in many areas, a recent survey carried out on behalf of Franklin Templeton's Emerging Market Equity Group suggested UK investors remain hesitant about the value and quality of some emerging markets exports, with many holding outdated stereotypes of products and services “Made in China.”

一次代表富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队进行的调查显示,尽管新兴市场产品在许多领域里大有进步,英国投资者仍对新兴市场出口的价值和质量持保留意见,对于“中国制造”的产品和服务仍有成见。

More than half of investors surveyed considered Chinese exports to be “cheap” (53%), with some also describing them as “poorly regulated” (38%) and “low quality” (29%). 2By comparison, most respondents described UK exports as “well-regulated” (62%) and “reliable” (57%), whilst Japanese products were considered to be both “high quality” (58%) and “innovative” (52%).3

超过半数被调查的投资者认为中国出口的产品“便宜”(53%),有些人还将其描述为“监管不利”(38%)和“质量差”(29%)。[2]相比之下,大多数受访者将英国出口的产品描述为“监管良好”(62%)和“可靠”(57%),而日本产品则被认为是“高质量”(58%)和“创新”(52%)。[3]

Where once emerging markets economies achieved initial success as producers of cheap home appliances or electronic parts, for example, many of these economies have now set their sights further up the value chain. Indeed, with China and South Korea as leading examples, emerging markets' share of global high value-add exports has risen dramatically since the start of the 21st century, rendering this impression of survey participants out of step with reality.

新兴市场经济体作为廉价家用电器或电子零件的生产商已取得初步成功,它们现已将目光进一步投向价值链上游。

事实上,自二十一世纪初以来,以中国和韩国为例,新兴市场在全球高附加值出口中所占的份额节节攀升,调查参与者的观点与现实有些脱节。

Of course, progress is uneven across emerging markets and we should not downplay the challenges that certain countries still face in their development. This is where we believe on-the-ground research and an active investment approach become critical.

当然,新兴市场的进展是不平衡的,我们不应该低估某些国家发展中仍然面临的挑战。因此,我们相信实地研究和主动的投资方法至关重要。

We think some of the most disruptive innovations have hailed from emerging economies, and we expect them to continue to leap ahead in an increasing number of areas. Certain companies have shown exceptional agility in solving consumers' problems, and those that can continue to do so are likely to enjoy sustainable earnings growth.

一些最具破坏性的创新来自新兴经济体,它们还将继续在更多领域中大步跃进。一些企业在解决消费者问题方面表现出了非凡的灵活性,能够持续如此的企业很可能获得可持续的收益增长。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments. The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable, but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非为个人投资的建议或买入、卖出或持有任何特定证券、投资产品或采取任何投资策略的推荐或招揽。本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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1. Source: HSBC as of December 2018. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[1] 资料来源:汇丰,截至二零一八年十二月。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

2. Research conducted on behalf of TEMIT by Cicero Group. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from Cicero Group. Total sample size was 2,270 UK consumers (18+), with 1,379 UK investors who invest of which 1,032 hold investments of at least £25,000. 505 of the total sample are 18–34 and are current or future investors. Fieldwork was undertaken between 18th–26th February 2019. The survey was carried out online.

[2]由 Cicero Group 代表 TEMIT 进行研究。所有数据,除非另外指明,均来源于 Cicero Group。总样本量为 2,270 名英国消费者(18 岁以上),其中 1,379 名为英国投资者,其中 1,032 名持有至少 25,000 英镑的投资。总样本量中有 505 名对象为 18 – 34 岁,是当前或潜在投资者。实地调查于二零一九年二月十八日至二十六日进行。该调查于线上进行。

3. Ibid.

[3] 同上。

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