中东和北非地区固定收入:四项关键要素
MENA Fixed Income: Four Things Top of Mind
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2019-12-03 22:18
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Accelerated demand for regional debt suggests a constructive remainder of 2019 for bonds in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), according to Dino Kronfol, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Global Sukuk and MENA Fixed Income. He outlines four things that are at the top of his mind for GCC debt in the current economic climate. He also shares why he thinks the MENA region could provide fertile ground for fixed income investors searching for yield.

富兰克林邓普顿环球伊斯/兰债券和中东北非固定收益团队首席投资官迪诺·克伦福尔称,区域债券需求走强,这表明,二零一九年剩余的时间对海湾合作委员会(简称“海合会”、“GCC”)债券来说具有建设性。他概述了在当前的经济大背景下他最看重海合会债券的四个关键因素。并且,他还阐释了为何他认为中东北非地区可为寻求收益的固定收益投资者提供沃土。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German, Italian, Polish

这篇文章也有中文(简体),德语,意大利语,波兰语版

When it comes to fixed income investing, we think bond markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region deserve much more investor attention than they're receiving.

谈及固定收益投资,我们认为海合会债券市场值得投资者给予更多的关注。

We've seen the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)1 economies take some bold steps to implement both fiscal reforms and diversify economies away from their dependency on oil.

我们已经看到,海合会[1] 经济体已大刀阔斧地实施财政改革,多元化发展经济,摆脱对石油的依赖。

At the same time, the GCC's phased inclusion in the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI)2 over the course of 2019 signals to us that the inclusion should lead to a significant increase in investor interest and demand for GCC bonds.

同时,海合会在二零一九年期间逐步被纳入摩根大通新兴市场债券指数(EMBI)[2],向我们表明,此事件会导致投资者对海合会债券的兴趣和需求显著提高。

Overall, the evidence suggests GCC debt issuance, which includes traditional bonds and sukuk (Shariah-compliant bonds), is on the rise.

总体而言,有证据表明,海合会债券的发行如火如荼,包括传统债券和伊斯/兰债券(符合伊/斯兰教法的债券)。

These are exciting developments in what we think was an underappreciated asset class and we remain constructive on GCC debt. Here are four considerations we think could drive GCC debt for the remainder of the year.

这些进展令人兴奋,我们认为这是一个受低估的资产类别,我们仍对海合会债券持积极看法。以下是我们认为本年内推动海合会债券发展的四个因素。

1. Structural Reforms

1. 结构性改革

One of the most important themes we're seeing in the MENA region is the scale and speed of reforms from policymakers across GCC economies.

我们从海合会各经济体决策者处看到了其改革的规模和速度,这是中东北非地区的最重要的主题之一。

This includes the opening up of capital markets and the mobilization of the private sector, which has come at a particularly important time given that the growth rate among GCC economies has been fairly modest over the last few years.

包括开放资本市场、动员私营部门等,这一时期尤为重要,毕竟海合会各经济体在过去几年中的增长率相当有限。

However, we believe GCC policymakers do have the tools to help stimulate economic growth beyond current predicted gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of 1.5% to 3.5% between 2019 and 2021.3 This includes removing the barriers to foreign trade within the GCC, making financial services more widely available and developing debt markets. We'll watch closely how policymakers can enact changes without compromising some of the more pressing fiscal consolidation goals they have, particularly the progress they are making on diversifying economies away from oil and into non-oil related sectors such as tourism and financial services.

然而,我们相信海合会的决策者拥有很多刺激工具能够帮助其经济大幅增长,不仅是实现在二零一九年至二零二一年期间预计的 1.5% 至 3.5% 的国内生产总值(GDP)增长。[3] 这包括消除海合会内部的对外贸易壁垒,使金融服务更加广泛,并发展债券市场。我们将密切关注政策制定者将如何实施改革而不损害其现有更紧迫的财政巩固目标,特别是他们在经济多元化方面取得的进展,即将经济重心从石油向旅游业和金融服务业等与石油无关的板块转移。

Some economies, such as Saudi Arabia, have continued to push for financial integration on a global scale. The country recently launched a national industrial development and logistics program to attract around US$426 billion in investment by 2030, in a bid to meet its “Vision 2030” target of integrating its economy on an international scale.

沙特阿拉伯等经济体持续推动全球范围内的金融一体化。该国最近启动了一项国家级工业发展和物流计划,至二零三零年吸引约 4,260 亿美元的投资,以实现其“二零三零年愿景”的目标,即在国际范围内实现经济一体化。

2. Early Stage in the Credit Cycle

2. 信贷周期的早期阶段

We're also paying close attention to where GCC debt markets are in the credit cycle, especially as some developed markets are at a more advanced stage of their cycle.

我们还密切关注海合会债券市场在信贷周期中的位置,尤其是当一些已发展市场处于较高级阶段时。

GCC bonds are typically denominated in US dollars and tied to the fortunes of the US economy. We think long-term fundamentals are broadly improving in the GCC region, but gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to be modest for the next three years, supporting the rationale for fixed income allocations.4 Despite this, we are ultimately mindful that a potential correction in developed markets, such as the United States, could have a knock-on effect on markets in the GCC region, through the transmission of US monetary policy and the price of credit across the globe.

海合会债券通常以美元计价,并与美国经济发展高度相关。我们认为,海合会地区的长期基本面正在普遍改善,但预计在未来三年其国内生产总值(GDP)增长将较为有限,这一想法是配置固定收益的基础。[4] 尽管如此,我们最终意识到,通过美国货币政策和全球信贷价格的传导,已发展市场(如美国)的潜在修正可能会为海合会地区的市场带来连锁反应。

3. Improving Valuations

3. 估值改善

In our view, valuations for GCC debt are still attractive relative to history. We also think valuations are attractive relative to assets within similar credit ratings in other markets. So, we think there's a lot of potential opportunity for us to capture.

我们认为,相对于历史而言,海合会债券的估值仍然具有吸引力。而且,相对于其他市场类似信用评级的资产,其估值亦更具有吸引力。因此,我们会有很多可抓住的潜在机会。

We'd also add the growth of corporate issuances looks exciting to us. Pressure in some industries has led to a selloff, opening up new bargains. The growth of corporate issuances allows us new idiosyncratic risk that we can incorporate into our portfolios which is very different from the market beta risk that would really be driven by global factors.

企业发行量的增长也令我们感到兴奋。部分行业的承压导致了抛售,创造了新的低价机会。随着企业发行量的增长,我们能够在投资组合中纳入新的特质风险,这与真正由全球因素驱动的市场贝塔风险截然不同。

4. US Interest Rates

4. 美国利率

It's not surprising that US interest rates are on our list of concerns. Markets have priced in at least one interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, starting from this summer.5 We're paying special attention to the Fed's interest-rate trajectory in particular and the impact that can have on longer term rates over the next few years.

我们将美国利率列入重点关注清单,这并不奇怪。从今年夏天开始,市场价格中已反映对美联储今年将至少一次降息的预期。[5] 我们尤为关注美联储的利率前景,及未来几年可能对长期利率产生的影响。

Shattering Misconceptions

粉碎误解

The GCC bond market is almost unrecognizable from a decade ago due to capital market development and government efforts to diversify economies away from a reliance on fossil fuels. In our view, a combination of ongoing structural reforms and improving valuations should likely attract additional foreign investment to the economy and continue to drive this trend.

由于其发展资本市场,政府致力于经济多元化,减少对化石燃料的依赖,现在的海合会债券市场与十年前已不可同日而语。我们认为,持续的结构改革和不断改善的估值相结合,或将吸引更多的外国投资流入,并进一步推动这一趋势。

And, according to our research, GCC bonds typically have a low correlation to oil prices and to other fixed income assets, so can offer diversification as well as potentially higher risk-adjusted returns (see chart below).6

根据我们的研究,通常而言,海合会债券与油价和其他固定收益资产相关性较低,因此有潜力提供经风险调整的回报,并使投资组合多元化(见下表)。[6]

Ultimately, we are constructive in our short- to medium-term view for GCC debt. We'd consider the four aforementioned factors to be at the top of our minds in an asset class that we believe deserves more investor attention.

总体而言,在中短期内,我们对海合会债券持积极态度。我们认为,基于上述四个最重要的因素,这一资产类别值得投资者给予更多关注。

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The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as the prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。部分行业如技术部门(长期的不稳定性)快速增长投资规模可能导致价格波动加剧,这种变化在短期投资中更为显著,因为产品变化和发展的速度很快,而且政府对重视科技发展的公司的监管模式与力度也发生了变化。债券价格通常与利率走势相反。因此,当投资组合中的债券价格随着利率的上升而调整时,投资组合的价值可能会下降。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging  and on LinkedIn.

想要及时投资,请关注Twitter @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

1. Source: World Bank, April 2019.

[1] 资料来源:世界银行,二零一九年四月。

2. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[2] 无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

3. Based on CME Group Fed funds futures, CME FedWatch Tool, as of June 19, 2019. The probability for an easing in July is 100%.

[3] 基于芝加哥商业交易所联邦基金期货,芝加哥商业交易所 FedWatch 工具,截至二零一九年六月十九日。七月降息的概率可能为 100%。

4. Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against risk of loss.

[4] 多元化投资并不能保证盈利或防止亏损风险。

5. The Gulf Cooperation Council is an alliance between six Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE).

[5] 海湾合作委员会共有六个中东成员国:巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)。

6. The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index tracks bonds in emerging markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses and sales charges.

[6] 摩根大通新兴市场债券指数追踪新兴市场债券。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不反映费用、开支和认购费。

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