中国科技板块:希望还是炒作?
China's Sci-Tech Board: Hope or Hype?
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2019-12-03 21:45
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火星译客

China will be launching a Nasdaq-style stock market for technology and research-driven companies to list and raise capital. While it has some detractors, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity believes this upcoming board is of strategic importance to China. Jason Zhu, director of portfolio management—China Equities, says it could rev up China's emergence as a research powerhouse and help emerging companies grow into industry champions, but the team will be watching at least two key factors—the quality of companies listed and their valuations.

中国将建立一个类似于纳斯达克的股票市场,为科技、研究驱动型企业提供上市和募资服务。尽管有一些负面声音,富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队认为,这一股票市场对中国具有战略重要性。中国市场股票投资组合管理团队总监朱骏表示,这将助力中国成为研究强国,并推动新兴企业成长为行业领袖,但团队仍将重点关注至少两项关键要素,即上市企业的质量和估值。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

Big Ambitions

雄心勃勃

In November of last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled plans to launch a science and technology innovation board on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The board promises to accelerate innovation in China by offering a dedicated platform for technology and research-driven companies to list and raise capital. Market observers have been quick to draw parallels between the board and the United States' Nasdaq.

去年十一月,中国国家主席习近平宣布,计划在上海证券交易所建立科技创新板(简称“科创板”)。科创板将为科技和研究驱动型企业提供上市与募资平台,致力于加速中国创新。市场观察人士认为,科创板与纳斯达克有相似之处。

We are positive about the move. We believe the sci-tech board is of strategic importance to China as it presses on with economic restructuring. The board could rev up the country's emergence as a research powerhouse. Despite widespread perceptions of China as a skilled imitator, it has begun to lead as an innovator in several areas. Consider how it topped the world with a 43.6% share of global patent filings in 2017—more than double the United States' 19.2% share—or how its research and development spending has risen to 2.13% of its gross domestic product, compared with an estimated 1.96% for the European Union.1

我们看好此举。我们相信,随着中国推进经济结构调整,科创板的建立具有重要战略重要意义。其将助力中国成为研究强国。尽管世界普遍认为中国擅长模仿,但中国已在数个领域成为创新的先行者。在二零一七年全球专利申请数量中,中国占有 43.6% 份额,超出美国 19.2% 的一倍;中国的研发支出占国内生产总值的比例上升至 2.13%,而欧盟估计仅有 1.96%。[1]

In fields where China needs to catch up, the board could bring in funding and give it a vital leg up. Overall, we see the sci-tech board making an impact in several ways.

在一些中国仍需努力追赶的领域,科创板将带来更充裕的资金,提供关键支持力量。总体来说,我们认为科创板将带来以下影响。

  1. Broaden Access to Private Capital

1.拓宽私有资本渠道

Equity markets are central to capitalism—they link companies hungry for cash to investors seeking returns. China's liberalization in the past few decades has been accompanied by the blossoming of its stock markets, which helped fuel the rise of “old economy” giants in areas such as energy, mining, property and banking amid the country's investment-led growth. Most of these companies had proven themselves with established business models before they could list. But China's economic priorities have evolved. So too, should its financial markets. As China pins mounting hopes on innovation to drive higher-quality growth and technological breakthroughs, we think the sci-tech board's creation is timely. It would enable not just high-tech start-ups to raise cash, but also venture capital and private equity funds to exit their investments and redeploy capital. Altogether, the board could encourage private capital investments in the technology scene.

股市是资本主义的核心——连接渴求现金的企业和寻求回报的投资人。在过去的数十年中,中国的自由化伴随着其股市的蓬勃发展,助力了能源、矿业、房地产与银行等领域的传统经济巨头随着投资驱动的增长而崛起。大多数这些企业在上市以前已用其成熟的商业模式证明了自己的实力。然而,中国的经济发展重点已发生改变。其金融市场也应有所响应。中国愈发寄希望于以创新驱动更高质量的增长与技术突破,因而我们认为,科创板是为此应运而生的。这不仅使得高科技的创业企业能够募集资金,也使得风险投资与私募股权基金能够实现资本的退出与再分配。科创板能够鼓励私有资本对科技板块的投资。

The implications go further. A stock market that better serves China's real economy can potentially improve capital allocation in a country that has been criticized for handing out state subsidies and other forms of aid. We see the sci-tech board creating room for the government to reduce support, which should strengthen the economy's efficiency and longer-term resilience.

其影响还不止于此。股市若能更好地服务于中国实体经济,将潜在提升中国因发放国家补贴及其他形式补助而受诟病的资本结构。我们认为,科创板将为减少政府支持创造空间,这将提升经济效率及更长期的韧性。

  1. Deepen Capital Market Reforms

2.深化资本市场改革

China's equity markets, though massive, remain uninviting for some investors and high-quality companies looking to list. Among their concerns are strict practices that rein in market forces and impede efficiency. These include an approval-based system for initial public offerings (IPOs), a profitability requirement for listing candidates, an unofficial but widely observed cap on IPO valuations and daily price limits for stocks.

虽然中国股市的规模庞大,但是对部分投资者和期待上市的高质量企业而言,仍然缺乏吸引力。他们担忧严格的管控将限制市场发展、阻碍效率提高。包括基于审核制的首次公开发行股票(IPO)体系、对上市候选企业的盈利要求、非官方但公认的 IPO 估值上限及股票每日价格限制。

China has pledged to reform its capital markets, and we view the sci-tech board as a pivotal testing ground. It would mark several “firsts” in the country as it shifts to a registration-based IPO system and accepts unprofitable companies. It would also waive the implicit IPO valuation cap and loosen daily price limits. We expect these features to give market forces greater sway and make IPOs faster and more transparent. Some of these features could also be applied to other domestic exchanges in the future.

中国已决意改革其资本市场,我们认为,科创板将成为关键的试验场。它将标志着中国的多个“第一次”向注册制 IPO 体系转型,接受尚未盈利的企业。它还将免除对 IPO 估值的隐形上限,放松每日价格限制。这意味着,市场力量将获得更大影响力,IPO 也将变得更快、更透明。其部分特征未来也可能应用于国内其他证券交易所。

We believe the board reflects China's commitment to making its capital markets more open and competitive. For Shanghai especially, the board could aid its bid to become a global financial center. Beyond pulling in capital, the board is likely to inject dynamism into the financial ecosystem.

我们相信,科创板反映了中国将致力于使资本市场变得更加开放、更具竞争力。尤其是对上海,科创板将助其成为全球金融中心。除了吸引资本,科创板还将为金融生态系统注入活力。

  1. Promote Industry Upgrade

3.推动产业升级

We view the sci-tech board as a critical prong of China's plan to move its industries up the value chain. Its economic rebalancing and technological survival would depend heavily on its ongoing transition from a cheap maker of low-end goods to a developer of high-tech and high-margin products.

我们认为,科创板的建立是中国计划将产业向价值链上游转移的重要突破。中国的经济再平衡和科技生存将在很大程度上取决于其正在进行的转型,即从一个廉价的低端产品制造商转型为高科技和高利润产品的开发国家。

In the sci-tech board's focus are strategic industries such as semiconductors, big data, advanced equipment, new energy and biomedicine. We note that China lags the West in some of these areas, and the infusion of private capital could give it a boost in catching up and building a lead. For companies with convincing strengths in innovation, the board is a prime channel of financing.

科创板重点关注战略领域,包括半导体、大数据、高端装备、新能源和生物医药。我们发现,中国在部分领域落后于西方,引入私人资本有助于迎头赶上,并建立领先地位。对于有强大创新优势的企业,科创板是其融资的最优渠道。

Flourish or Fail

不成功,便成仁

The sci-tech board has its detractors. Worries of a rapid boom and bust loom especially large. Chinese investors have historically shown outsized interest in new bourses and listings, driven in part by confidence in the IPO approval process and a belief that capped IPO valuations spawn easy returns later. ChiNext in Shenzhen, for example, had surged on investor exuberance shortly after its debut in 2009, only to sink when interest waned. Understandably, market excitement around the new sci-tech board has stoked caution. We believe China has gleaned lessons from the past, and has enacted measures to prevent bubbles on the new sci-tech board.

对科创板亦有负面声音。尤其是担忧其可能大起大落。中国的投资者过去对新的交易所和上市展现了极其浓厚的兴趣,部分原因是对 IPO 审核流程的信心,以及认为因 IPO 估值受限,后续将轻松获得高额回报。例如,深圳的创业板在二零零九年首秀后收到投资者的狂热追捧,后续又因投资者兴趣减弱而出现颓势。因此,可以理解的是,围绕新的科创板的市场兴奋情绪已引起警惕情绪。我们相信,中国已从过去汲取了经验教训,会采取相应的措施,防止科创板出现泡沫。

What We're Watching

我们的重点关注

As fundamental investors in search of sustainable investment returns, we will be watching at least two key factors—the quality of companies listed and their valuations. To be sure, much remains to be seen until the board starts trading. By late April, 90 companies from industries ranging from advanced equipment to biomedicine had cleared the initial checks needed to list.2 Most applicants were not high-profile market leaders, which is unsurprising as bigger names are more likely to be listed already.

作为寻找可持续投资回报的基本面投资者,我们会重点关注至少两个关键因素——上市企业的质量和估值。诚然,还需等到科创板开始交易,再进行进一步观察。四月底,来自于高端装备、生物医药等行业的 90 家企业已完成了上市前的初步审核。[2]大部分申请企业并不是备受瞩目的市场领袖,这也并不意外,毕竟更大型的企业可能已上市。

Broadly speaking, we expect regulators to be mindful of the overall quality of companies listed, especially in the near term as they work to cement market confidence in the board. Short-term valuations on the sci-tech board could be choppy.

整体而言,我们期望监管机构关注上市企业的整体质量,特别是在近期,毕竟他们希望巩固市场对科创板的信心。短期内,科创板的估值可能会有波动。

As a whole, we think the sci-tech board is well-placed to help emerging companies grow into industry champions in the long run. But identifying companies with the right potential would require investors to have strong research skills.

总体而言,我们认为,科创板的设立是适时之举,帮助新兴企业逐步成长为行业领袖。但要识别有潜力的企业,投资者需要具备强大的研究能力。

Especially for firms with short track records or early-stage innovation, financial analyses should be accompanied by hands-on research, including company visits and meetings with suppliers, regulators and other major stakeholders, to build a well-rounded view of their prospects. Shares of such companies could also be more volatile and less liquid, which would affect portfolio construction. Until we can identify good-quality companies that demonstrate enduring earnings power but appear mispriced by the market, we are likely to stay on the sidelines.

特别是履历尚浅、仍处于早期创新阶段的企业,需要结合财务分析以及实地研究,包括考察企业、会见供应商、监管机构和其他主要的利益相关方,建立对企业发展前景的完整认知。这些企业的股票可能波动性更高、流动性更低,或将影响投资组合的构建。在我们找到高质量、具备持续盈利能力、并且价值与价格错位的企业之前,我们可能仍会保持观望状态。

All Aboard?

都准备好了吗?

All said, we welcome the launch of the sci-tech board. We view it as a crucial step in China's economic restructuring, especially in its race to become a leading innovator and pursue technological independence from the West. The board is likely to broaden companies' access to private capital and deepen capital market reforms. It also has a significant part to play in upgrading China's industries, by unlocking a source of financing for homegrown companies in high-tech or research-intensive fields.

综上所述,我们看好科创板的建立。我们认为,这是中国经济结构调整的关键一步,特别是在中国争当创新领袖、追求科技独立于西方之时。科创板或将拓宽企业面向私有资本的募资渠道,并深化资本市场改革。科创板将打开本土高科技、研发密集领域的企业的融资渠道,因此在推动中国产业升级中也将扮演至关重要的角色。

Still, we see a need to distinguish the macro from the micro. In our search for sustainable investment returns, we will be paying close attention to the quality of companies listed and their valuations.

不过,我们仍需划分宏观与微观。在我们寻求可持续的投资回报时,我们将密切关注上市企业的质量和估值。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Investments in fast-growing industries like the technology sector (which historically has been volatile) could result in increased price fluctuation, especially over the short term, due to the rapid pace of product change and development and changes in government regulation of companies emphasizing scientific or technological advancement or regulatory approval for new drugs and medical instruments.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。部分行业如技术部门(长期的不稳定性)快速增长投资规模可能导致价格波动加剧,这种变化在短期投资中更为显著,因为产品变化和发展的速度很快,而且政府对重视科技发展或新药和医疗器械的监管批准的公司的监管模式与力度也发生了变化。

Actively managed strategies could experience losses if the investment manager's judgment about markets, interest rates or the attractiveness, relative values, liquidity or potential appreciation of particular investments made for a portfolio, proves to be incorrect. There can be no guarantee that an investment manager's investment techniques or decisions will produce the desired results.

如果投资经理对市场、利率或投资组合的吸引力、相对价值、流动性或潜在增值最终判断错误,那么积极管理型的投资策略可能会因此遭受损失。不能保证投资经理的投资手段或决策所产生的结果与预期相同。

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1. Sources: WIPO (2018). World Intellectual Property Indicators 2018. Geneva: World Intellectual Property Organization; OECD (2019). Main Science and Technology Indicators, Volume 2018 Issue 2, Publishing, Paris.

[1]资料来源: 世界知识产权组织(二零一八年)。二零一八年世界知识产权指标。日内瓦:世界知识产权组织;经济合作与发展组织(二零一九年)。《主要科技与技术指标(Main Science and Technology Indicators)》,二零一八卷第二期,出版,巴黎。

2. Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange, “Q&A on First Round of Inquiries and Replies for Sci-Tech Innovation Board,” April 23, 2019.

[2]资料来源:上海证券交易所,《关于科创板的首轮问询及回复》,二零一九年四月二十三日。

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