科威特进军新兴市场,迎来全新投资时代
Kuwait's EM Arrival Signals New Investment Era
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2019-12-02 16:28
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Kuwait’s upgrade to index provider MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index puts the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region firmly on the global investment map, according to Bassel Khatoun and Salah Shamma, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity. They consider the potential asset flows this move could bring, and weigh in on the opportunities they see for Kuwait and the wider MENA region.

富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队 Bassel Khatoun 及 Salah Shamma 认为,科威特升级进入指数编制机构摩根士丹利新兴市场指数,这意味着中东北非(MENA) 地区将稳居全球投资版图中。他们考量了此变动将带来的潜在资产流动,并阐述了科威特和更广大的中东北非地区的投资机会。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文版

Kuwait stands on the cusp of a new era of investment. Its promotion to the MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index this week puts the country in the cross hairs of deep pocketed global investors and roughly US$1.8 trillion that tracks the popular gauge.1 The upgrade is contingent on the introduction of a number of new regulatory mechanisms affecting international institutional investors before November.

科威特现正处于投资新时代的转折点。本周,其升级进入摩根士丹利新兴市场指数,资金雄厚的全球投资者和跟踪这一流行指数的约 1.8 万亿美元资本的目光均聚焦于科威特。[1] 这一升级还取决于其是否能在十一月前引入一些影响国际机构投资者的新监管机制。

The significant liquidity surge that typically accompanies emerging-market promotion also means investors in Kuwait could find opportunities from a more institutionalized and liquid stock market.

通常而言,被纳入新兴市场指数后,流动性将显著增加,这也意味着科威特的投资者可以在制度化程度更高、流动性更强的股市中寻找投资机会。

Kuwait’s MSCI upgrade reflects the hard work that the country’s Capital Markets Authority has undertaken over the past two years to make its stock market more accessible and attractive to global investors. During this time, it has made tangible improvements to its clearing, custody, and settlement services, increased foreign ownership levels (FOL) and eased the process of setting up investor trading accounts.

科威特被纳入摩根士丹利新兴市场指数,反映出该国资本市场管理局(Capital Markets Authority)过去两年所做的艰苦卓绝的努力,目的是让全球投资者更容易进入科威特股市,使得该市场更具吸引力。在此期间,科威特对其清算、托管和结算服务做出了实质性的改进,提高了外资持股水平(FOL),并简化了投资者交易账户的设立程序。

According to MSCI, up to 18 Kuwaiti stocks will be eligible for the MSCI EM Index, with the inclusion basket likely to be concentrated in banks (c.70%).2 Actual implementation, however, will not take place until May 2020. While Kuwait has already been recognized as an emerging market by rival index providers FTSE Russell (FTSE EM) and S&P Dow Jones, the country’s inclusion in MSCI’s EM Index is a landmark deal and should represent Kuwait’s biggest-ever liquidity event.

摩根士丹利表示,多达 18 只科威特股票具备摩根士丹利新兴市场指数的资格,其纳入的一篮子股票可能以银行为主(约 70% )。[2] 然而,要到二零二零年五月才会真正实施。虽然科威特已被其他指数编制机构富时罗素和标准普尔道琼斯认定为新兴市场,但该国纳入摩根士丹利新兴市场指数仍具有里程碑意义,是科威特有史以来最大的流动性事件。

Initially, Kuwait’s MSCI EM weighting might amount to approximately 50 basis points, or 0.5%.3 Based on this representation, we anticipate likely total investor flows of about US$10 billion (US$2.5 billion in passive flows and US$7.5 billion in potential active flows).4 For context, over the past 12 months Kuwait has seen a total of US$1.9 billion of foreign inflows, driven primarily by the FTSE EM Index inclusion which took place over two phases in September and December 2018.5

起初,科威特在摩根士丹利新兴市场中的权重可能达到约 55 个基点,或 0.55%。[3] 基于此,我们预计总投资者流动可能约为 100 亿美元(被动流动 25 亿美元,潜在主动流动 75 亿美元)。[4]相比之下,在过去的十二个月里,科威特/共有 19 亿美元外资流入,主要是因其被纳入富时新兴市场指数,该升级于二零一八年九月和十二月分两个阶段进行。[5]

Attractive Fundamentals Still Drive Kuwait’s Story

科威特的发展动力仍来自于其极具吸引力的基本面

Upgrades aside, the fundamental case for investing in Kuwait may be worth considering. With substantial reserves, low levels of debt and a stable banking sector, Kuwait stands out in an emerging market context. When one adds to this a budget breakeven oil price of just US$49 a barrel for 2019 (the lowest by some margin in the region) and a “AA” credit rating by Moody’s, Kuwait could be considered a low beta, defensive investment destination.6

即便不考虑此次升级,投资科威特的基本面仍值得考虑。科威特拥有庞大的外汇储备,债务水平较低,且银行业稳定 ,在新兴市场环境中脱颖而出。如果再加上二零一九年每桶仅 49 美元的预算平衡油价(在一定程度上是该地区最低)和穆迪给予的 “AA” 信用评级,科威特或被视为一个贝塔系数较低、防御性较强的投资目的地。[6]

Another factor in Kuwait’s growing appeal is its diversification story that’s gaining momentum. Kuwait continues to make significant progress in terms of fiscal and structural reforms and is committed to developing a dynamic and vibrant private sector. And while there is still some way to go, the results of Kuwait’s move to reduce the role of the public sector in the economy are encouraging, in our view.

科威特的吸引力日益增长,另一个因素是其愈发强劲的多元化发展势头。该国在财政和结构改革方面持续取得重大进展,并致力于发展一个充满活力的私营部门。尽管任重道远,但我们已看到,在减少公共部门经济参与程度方面,科威特已取得令人鼓舞的成效。

The country is moving away from oil dependence by developing its infrastructure, investing in human capital and promoting private sector involvement. In the government’s Vision 2035 plan, it has developed a blueprint for a more sustainable future. To date, we’ve seen about US$60 billion of investment allocated under this plan, with the prospect of $100 billion more to come, providing an ample runway for growth. Kuwait’s Northern Gulf Gateway project alone is expected to add about US$220 billion to Kuwait’s gross domestic product.

该国大力发展基础设施、投资人力资源和促进私营部门参与,正逐步摆脱对石油的依赖。政府的二零三五年愿景规划为更可持续的未来制定了蓝图。目前,已为这一计划配资约 600 亿美元,未来或将追加 1,000 亿美元,这为增长提供了充足的支持。仅科威特北部海湾门户项目就有望为科威特的国内生产总值增加约 2,200 亿美元。

In our view, there is also a solid valuation argument to be made for Kuwaiti stocks. Despite trading at a 15% premium to emerging market peers, valuations remain reasonable. It is worth keeping in mind that the surge in liquidity that will likely accompany Kuwait’s MSCI EM inclusion does have the potential to stretch valuations further. Recent upgrades of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia increased valuations significantly in the final year prior to inclusion.

我们认为,科威特股票也有可靠的估值论据。尽管与新兴市场同行相比有 15% 溢价,但其估值仍然合理。值得注意的是,继科威特被纳入摩根士丹利新兴市场后,其潜在的流动性大幅上升确实有可能进一步抬升估值。最近对阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯的升级,均使其估值在升级前的最后一年出现大幅提升。

Moreover, we believe the earnings outlook for listed Kuwaiti companies supports a valuation premium. On average, Kuwait stocks are delivering 13.5% earnings per share growth coupled with a 4.8% dividend yield which is attractive within an emerging market context.7 On a sector view, we remain particularly upbeat about Kuwait’s banking sector, which is showing improving profitability on the back of falling provisioning and improving asset quality.

此外,我们认为,科威特上市企业的盈利前景能够支撑估值溢价。平均而言,科威特股票每股收益增长 13.5%,股息收益率为 4.8%,这在新兴市场环境下具有吸引力。[7] 从行业的角度来看,我们非常看好科威特的银行业,由于供应量下降和资产质量提高,银行业的盈利能力正在提高。

Our view is that with Kuwait’s addition to the MSCI EM Index, combined with Middle East and North Africa (MENA)8 representation, will amount to approximately 5.2%, putting this region firmly on the global investment map.9 We would also expect more active money managers begin to look at the MSCI EM Index through a MENA lens, raising the possibility of a positive spillover impact for the region’s capital markets.

我们认为,继科威特升级进入摩根士丹利新兴市场指数,加之中东北非地区[8] 的股票代表,其将获得约 5.2% 的权重,这意味着这一地区将稳居全球投资版图中。[9] 我们还预计,更多主动型投资经理人将开始通过中东北非地区视角来看待摩根士丹利新兴市场指数,从而提高了对该地区资本市场产生积极溢出效应的可能性。

We believe Kuwait’s MSCI promotion is just reward for the range of transformational measures it has implemented to improve its capital markets. And although the pace and quantum of change in the country has, in the past, been slower than neighbors like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait’s encouraging fundamentals should likely draw additional interest from emerging market investors.

我们认为,科威特此次被纳入摩根士丹利新兴市场是对其为改善资本市场而实施的一系列改革措施的认可。过去,尽管科威特的变化速度和量级不及阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯等邻国,但其鼓舞人心的基本面可能会吸引新兴市场投资者的额外兴趣。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. 

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_emerging and on LinkedIn.

想要及时投资,请在推特上关注 @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

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1. Source: MSCI, June 2019.The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-markets countries. MENA representation in the index currently includes Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[1]资料来源:摩根士丹利,二零一九年六月。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家中的大中型股票代表。在该指数中,中东北非股票代表目前包括卡塔尔、阿拉伯联合酋长国和埃及。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不反映任何费用、支出或销售费用。摩根士丹利不会就此处转载的任何摩根士丹利数据作任何保证,亦不对此承担任何责任。  本报告不由摩根士丹利编制或认可。有关数据提供方的更多资讯,请查阅 www.franklintempletondatasources.com

2. Source: MSCI, June 2019.

[2]资料来源:摩根士丹利,二零一九年六月。

3. Franklin Templeton internal estimate, June 2019. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[3] 富兰克林邓普顿内部预测,二零一九年六月。不能保证估计、预测或推断将会实现。

4. Ibid.

[4] 出处同上。

5. Kuwait Stock Exchange, June 2019.

[5] 科威特证券交易所,二零一九年六月。

6. Source: Moody’s Investor Service. According to Moody’s, obligations rated AA are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk. In the world of investing, beta has traditionally been a measure of a security’s or portfolio’s volatility in comparison to the stock market as a whole. Today, the word “beta” is also used as shorthand to describe getting broad stock-market exposure, typically through investments that often track the S&P 500 and other major indexes.

[6]资料来源:穆迪投资者服务。在穆迪的评级体系中,评级为 AA 的债务为高质量、低信贷风险债券。 在投资领域,贝塔系数一贯用于衡量证券或投资组合相较于整个股市的波动性的指标。如今,“贝塔”也用作描述广泛股市持仓的简写,通常通过跟踪标准普尔 500 指数和其他主要指数的投资实现。

7. Bloomberg, June 2019.

[7] 彭博资讯,截至二零一九年六月。

8. The Middle East and North Africa region includes Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Egypt.

[8] 中东北非地区包括科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔和埃及

9. MSCI, Franklin Templeton internal estimate, June 2019. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[9] 摩根士丹利,富兰克林邓普顿内部预测,二零一九年六月。

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