对美中贸易摩擦加剧的看法
Our View as US-China Trade Tensions Deepen
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2019-12-02 15:55
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US-China trade tensions escalated in early August as US President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, and in turn, China announced it would stop purchasing US agricultural products. Amid an already-slowing Chinese economy, many investors were rattled. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Sukumar Rajah and Jason Zhu weigh in on the situation and explain why China’s economy may be better able to absorb the trade issues than some observers fear.

八月初,美国总统特朗普宣布对中国商品加征新的关税,而中国随后宣布停止采购美国农产品,美中贸易摩擦升级。面对已经在减速的中国经济,许多投资者如惊弓之鸟。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的Sukumar Rajah和Jason Zhu盘点形势,解释为什么中国经济解决贸易问题的能力可能高于一些观察人士的担忧。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Spanish, Polish

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、西班牙文、波兰文版

On Thursday, August 1, 2019, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on a further US$300 billion of Chinese exports starting September 1, 2019. China retaliated by suspending US agricultural product purchases.

2019年8月1日星期四,美国总统特朗普宣布对中国另外3000亿美元的商品加征10%的关税,自2019年9月1日起生效。中国以暂停购买美国农产品予以回应。

Then, on August 6, the United States formally labeled China as a currency manipulator, after the Chinese RMB depreciated to above seven per US dollar for the first time since 2009.

8月6日,在人民币兑美元汇率自2009年以来首次破七后,美国正式将中国列为汇率操纵国。

These events sparked a broad and deep selloff across global stock markets. Since the start of the month  the MSCI EM Index and MSCI World Index declined 6.17% and 3.33% respectively in USD terms, while the MSCI China Index declined close to 7.39%.1

这些事件引发全球股市全面暴跌。从月初以来,以美元口径看,MSCI新兴市场指数和MSCI全球指数已经分别下跌6.17%和3.33%,而MSCI中国指数则下跌了近7.39%。[1]

The US-China dispute has escalated from trade to technology, and now to financial areas. With accusations of currency manipulation, the risk of a deepening long-term confrontation appears to be rising.

美中争端已经从贸易领域升级到科技领域,现在更进入金融领域。由于指控操纵汇率,长期冲突加深的风险似乎正在上升。

Our View on China

对中国的观点

In the short term, the Chinese economy is slowing; second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was the lowest in 27 years. Persistent trade uncertainty has encouraged some manufacturers to diversify from production bases in China. There could be collateral damage to financial institutions if the resultant factory closures produce defaults.

从短期看,中国经济正在放缓;二季度的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率降至27年来的最低点。持续的贸易摩擦,促使一些制造企业将生产基地撤出中国。如果由此造成的工厂关闭而导致违约,就可能会对金融机构造成连带影响。

Longer-term implications of continued trade issues include the acceleration of economic opening and deregulation in China, offset by a slowdown in de-leveraging efforts as the government seeks to prop up economic growth.

贸易问题持续发酵的更长期影响包括中国经济开放和去监管进程加速,但被政府为了刺激经济增长而减缓去杠杆的努力抵消。

Policy changes in recent years that soften the US-China trade impact include a more flexible exchange rate, state-owned enterprise reform paired with support for private companies and looser monetary and fiscal policy. Additional infrastructure investment may also be a key near-term support for China’s economy.

近年来中国采取了一些软化美中贸易影响的政策调整,包括更灵活的汇率形成机制、国有企业改革以及对私营企业的支持和放松货币和财政政策。加大基础设施投资力度,也可能是中国经济在近期的一个重要支撑。

It is also important to note the following:

同时还应注意:

  • China’s growth is now less dependent on trade; China’s export of goods and services (as a percentage of GDP) has declined over the last decade, from 32.6% in 2008 to 19.5% in 2018.2
  • China’s trade balance with the United States has narrowed, and at a current account level, China’s imports of US services (as opposed to goods) has grown.
  • China’s economy is re-balancing and domestic consumption is the key driver of economic growth, representing 76% of GDP growth in 2018, up from 44% a decade ago.3
  • 目前中国增长的贸易依存度已经下降;过去十年中国商品和服务出口的GDP占比在持续下降,已经从2008年的6%降至2018年的19.5%。[2]
  • 中国与美国的贸易差额已经收窄,同时在经常项目中,中国对美国服务的进口量(与商品相反)一直在增长。
  • 中国经济正在重新平衡,内需已成为经济增长的主要推动力,2018年对GDP增长的贡献达76%,而10年前仅44%。[3]

Trickling Down to Technology

蔓延到科技领域

We think the impact of the trade war is most apparent in (1) technological areas that pertain to national security and cutting-edge technology (e.g., 5G, artificial intelligence), and (2) hardware products as part of global supply chains (e.g. smartphones, notebooks, tablets).

我们认为,贸易战的影响在两个领域最为明显:(1) 与国家安全有关的科技领域和尖端科技(例如5G、人工智能);(2) 全球供应链中的硬件产品(例如智能手机、笔记本电脑、平板电脑)。

We expect tariff costs to be absorbed across supply chains, brands and the end consumer, mitigating the impact on any single company. However, this could nonetheless likely result in weaker consumer demand and sales volumes, as well as in the postponement of capex.

预计关税成本会由供应链、品牌和最终消费者共同消化,从而减轻了对任何单个公司的影响。但这仍可能导致消费者需求走弱,销量下滑,资本支出推迟。

In the longer term, trade tensions may contribute to delayed adoption of key technologies (e.g., 5G), diversification of supply chains and fragmentation of industry standards.

从中长期看,贸易摩擦可能导致关键技术的采用推迟(例如5G)、供应链多元化和行业标准的分化。

Structural drivers not materially impacted include localized emerging-market innovation, ever-rising data usage/generation and resulting chip demand and a shift to online services and consumption, amongst others.

未受到严重影响的结构性驱动因素包括新兴市场本地化的创新、持续上升的数据使用量/生成量以及相应的芯片需求,以及向在线服务和消费的转型等。

Emerging-Market Companies Diversifying Supply Chains

新兴市场企业在促使供应链多元化

The recent truce in the US-China trade conflict was notable for its brevity: the increasingly antagonistic stance between the United States and China suggests to us the trade war could persist beyond the 2020 US presidential election cycle, and investors should be prepared for ongoing market volatility.

最近美中贸易冲突的休战不过是昙花一现:美中两国的立场渐行渐远,说明贸易战可能会持续到2020年美国总统大选之后,投资者应做好迎接持续市场动荡的准备。

Given prolonged trade tensions, many global companies have been highlighting supply chain diversification even before the developments in the first week of August. While this trend seems negative for China, it could lead to increased capital expenditure in other Asian markets and beyond. For example, Mexico’s traditional links with US supply chains, geographic location and competitive wages could attract investments while China’s retaliation against US farmers should also boost exports from South America as an alternate supplier.

由于贸易冲突持续不断,早在八月第一周冲突升级发生之前,许多全球性企业就已经在强调供应链的多元化,尽管这一趋势似乎对中国不利,但可能会导致其他亚洲市场及其他市场的资本支出上升。例如,墨西哥凭借与美国供应链的传统纽带、地理位置和有竞争力的工资水平等优势,可能会吸引投资,同时中国对美国农民的报复也应该会促进南美作为替代供应市场的出口。

Similarly, while China’s trade with the United State has declined, certain Asian countries (e.g., India, Taiwan, Vietnam) have seen increased trade volumes in 2019, as well as movement up the value chain in recent years (e.g. South Korea, Vietnam).

同样,尽管中国与美国的贸易已经下降,2019年一些亚洲国家和地区(例如印度、台湾、越南)的贸易量已有所增加,近年来在价值链上的位置也在提升(例如韩国、越南)。

The Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut alleviates upward pressure on the US dollar that the tariffs might otherwise boost, helping emerging-market currencies while also facilitating greater flexibility in monetary policy (e.g., rate cuts in South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand). In addition, history has shown that Fed easing cycles have generally supported emerging markets.4

美联储最近的降息缓解了加征关税可能给美元带来的升值压力,利好新兴市场货币,同时也提高货币政策的灵活性(例如韩国、印度尼西亚和泰国降息)。此外,历史显示美联储的降息周期总体上一直利好新兴市场。[4]

Our Approach to Volatility

我们应对波动的方法

Throughout this extended period of trade-related volatility, we have constantly assessed our portfolio risks, both through stress-testing individual stocks under differing assumptions as well as performing broader-market scenario analyses in collaboration with the Investment Risk Group at Franklin Templeton.

面对贸易相关的长期波动局面,我们在持续评估投资组合的风险,通过不同的假设对个股进行压力测试,同时与富兰克林投资风险团队合作进行更全面的市场风险分析。

Importantly, beyond the near-term earnings impact, we think the competitive advantages of the companies we favor remain intact. We seek to invest in companies with sustainable, quality earning streams, and with strong cash flows and balance sheets that we think can withstand uncertain macro conditions.

重要的是,除对近期盈利的影响外,我们看好的公司的竞争优势依然完好。我们力求投资那些具有可持续、优质盈利流的公司,以及具有良好现金流和资产负债表的公司,因为这些公司可以经受住宏观环境不确定性的考验。

Nonetheless, lingering and unpredictable trade tensions—exacerbated by daily headlines—impact consumer and business sentiment, hindering consumption and delaying investment decisions. It’s difficult to avoid the risks, but we still feel optimistic there are investment opportunities to be found within this broad asset class. We think the potential opportunities remain strong, and valuations are very attractive.

尽管如此,持续不断且无法预测的贸易摩擦每天都在恶化,对消费者和企业信心造成了影响,抑制了消费,延迟了投资决策,而每天的头条报道更是加重了这种影响。风险难以避免,但是,我们仍然乐观认为这一大资产类别的投资机会继续存在,潜在的机会依然强劲,估值也十分有吸引力。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_emerging and on LinkedIn.

想要及时投资,请在推特上关注 @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

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1. Source: MSCI. Data through August 8, 2019. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

[1]资料来源:MSCI。数据截至2019年8月8日。MSCI新兴市场指数采集了24个新兴市场国家的大中盘股代表。MSCI 全球市场指数采集了 23 个已发展市场中的大中型股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不包括手续费、支出或销售费用。过往业绩不代表、也不保证将来的表现。MSCI不会就此处转载的任何MSCI数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。 本报告不由MSCI编制或授权。欲了解重要数据提供方通知和条款,请访问 www.franklintempletondatasources.com

2. Source: World Bank.

[2]资料来源:世界银行。

3. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

[3]资料来源:中国国家统计局。

4. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future performance.

[4]过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

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