印度的财政预算已步入正轨
India's Budget Moving in the Right Direction
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2019-12-01 10:05
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India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently unveiled the country’s new budget, which aims to give the economy a boost via tax cuts and other measures to stimulate foreign investment. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity Director of Portfolio Management Sukumar Rajah says the fiscal math looks credible and the targets seem achievable, with the assumption of improving Goods and Services Tax compliance. He says while there are likely to be some winners and losers from an investment standpoint, overall, the government seems to be moving in the right direction to spur economic growth.

印度财政部长 Nirmala Sitharaman 最近公布了该国的新预算案,以期通过减税等措施,刺激外国投资,促进经济发展。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队投资组合管理总监 Sukumar Rajah 表示,在提高商品和服务税合规性的前提下,这笔财政的账看起来较为合理,目标亦是可实现的。他说,虽然从投资的角度来看,可能会有赢有输,但总体而言,政府似乎正朝着正确的方向推动经济增长。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文版

The Indian government has delivered its final budget for fiscal year 2020, which ends in March 2020.

印度政府已提交二零二零财年的最终预算案,预算截止至二零二零年三月。

We believe the India Union Budget shows the government is moving in the right direction by focusing on improving the investment climate and diversifying the source of government funding, which should lower the cost of capital in the long run. As a result, we retain our positive outlook for India equities in the medium to long term.

我们认为,印度联邦预算表明,政府正朝着正确的方向前进,重点在于改善投资环境,分散政府资金来源。从长远来看,这将会降低资本成本。因此,我们对印度股市的中长期前景持乐观态度。

Balancing Growth with Fiscal Discipline

用财政纪律平衡经济增长

India’s robust gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been slowing this year, so this budget helps outline government efforts to stimulate the economy while preserving policy continuity.

印度强劲的国内生产总值(GDP)增长今年持续放缓,因此,这项预算充分显示了政府在不破坏政策连续性的同时刺激经济发展的努力。

We believe the Indian government continues to balance growth priorities with fiscal discipline, while diversifying funding sources. The government has lowered its fiscal deficit target from 3.4% as announced in the February 2019 budget to 3.3% of GDP for the 2020 fiscal year.

我们相信,印度政府将继续用财政纪律平衡增长优先事项,同时扩大政府资金来源。政府已将二零二零财年财政赤字占 GDP 比例的目标从二零一九年二月宣布的 3.4 % 降至 3.3%。

In our opinion, the fiscal math looks credible and the targets seem achievable to us, provided the government can improve compliance with the Goods and Services Tax (GST), which would in turn boost government revenues. We’re already seeing signs of increased enforcement of tax compliance following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s re-election in May. Continued disinvestment should also help boost government revenues in the medium to long term.

在我们看来,如果政府能够提高商品和服务税(GST)的合规性,那么这笔财政账看起来较为合理,目标亦是可实现的,这继而又会增加政府收入。我们已经看到总理纳伦德拉·莫迪五月连任后加强税收合规执行的迹象。持续的投资缩减也将有助于在中长期内提高政府收入。

For businesses, a plan to cut the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% for Indian firms with annual revenues lower than 4 billion rupees (US$58 million) looks to benefit smaller domestic companies, which make up the bulk of the market. There are tax incentives and exemptions for larger companies as well.

对于企业来说,年收入低于 40 亿卢比(5.8 千万美元)的印度企业的税率或将从 30% 下调至 25%,这项计划有望惠及占印度市场大部分较小规模的本土企业。大企业也能享受到税收优惠和免税政策。

Improving Ease of Doing Business in India

改善印度的营商环境

There are also continuous efforts to improve the ease of doing business in India. There are direct and indirect tax incentives to attract high-tech manufacturing in products such as electronic chip manufacturing, laptops, computer servers, among others, in a move towards Digital India—the government’s initiative to improve online infrastructure and internet access across the country. The government also proposed relaxation in foreign direct investment norms for sectors such as aviation, media, and insurance to attract more overseas investment. There are also efforts to simplify labor laws, a meaningful positive as this could result in a more flexible labor market and alleviate concerns from foreign investors (labor laws have traditionally been one of the key hurdles for foreign investment in the past).

印度也在不断努力提高其营商环境。政府实行直接、间接的税收激励措施,吸引如电子芯片、笔记本电脑、计算机服务器等产品的高科技制造业,此举推进政府的“数字印度”倡议,旨在改善全国的在线基础设施和互联网接入。政府还建议放宽航空、媒体和保险等行业的外商直接投资规范,吸引更多的海外投资。此外,政府还努力简化劳动法律,这种做法非常有意义,因为这将使劳动力市场更灵活,并减轻外国投资者的顾虑(传统上,劳动法律一直是外商投资的主要障碍之一)。

There is also continued strengthening of infrastructure and a focus on affordable housing. A railway station modernization program will be launched this year, and Indian Railways has plans to invest more in suburban rail networks and enhance metro rail networks through public-private partnerships. The Indian government is also committed to building 19.5 million houses by 2022, as well as increasing incentives on housing loans to boost low-cost housing demand. Piped water is planned to be provided for every household by 2024, thereby improving living conditions in rural areas.

持续强化基础设施建设,重点关注经济适用房。今年将启动一项火车站现代化计划,印度铁路部门计划在郊区铁路网络上加大投资,并通过公私伙伴关系优化地铁铁路网络。印度政府还承诺,到二零二二年建造 1,950 万套住房,并增加住房贷款激励措施,刺激低成本住房需求。计划到二零二四年,实现自来水进入每个家庭,进而改善农村地区生活条件。

Separately, there are also proposed measures to revive non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and recapitalize state-run banks. The stress in India’s NBFCs sector has contributed to slowdown in consumption as mutual funds and the banking system have been cautious in providing liquidity to such NBFCs. To enhance liquidity access for the sector, the government will provide a guarantee on the first 10% loss to banks for purchasing consolidated high-rated pooled assets of “financially-sound” NBFCs in the next 6 months. The US$10 billion capital infusion in respective public-sector banks is also a positive for state banks to boost lending and revive the economy, although the timing of the injection remains to be confirmed.

此外,还提出了重振非银行金融企业(NBFC)和对国有银行进行资本重组的措施。印度非银行金融板块的压力导致消费放缓,因为在向此类非银行金融企业提供流动性方面,互惠基金和银行体系一直持谨慎态度。为了提高该板块的流动性,在未来六个月内,政府将为银行购买“财务状况良好”的非银行金融企业的综合高评级集合资产提供 10% 的损失担保。对国有银行而言,向各自的公共部门银行注资 100 亿美元,对它们提振放贷和复苏经济也是一个利好,不过注资的时间仍有待确定。

Attracting Foreign Investment

吸引外商投资

The budget has a focus on attracting foreign capital and boosting investment (both equity and debt). There are several means to do so. One of these is to increase the minimum public float in listed companies to 35% from 25%, in a phased manner.

预算的重点是吸引外资和刺激投资(包括股权和债权)。有几种方法可以做到这一点。其中之一是分阶段将上市企业的最低公众持股比例从 25% 提高至 35%。

Traditionally, Indian equities have had higher private majority shareholder control, with lower free-float available to the public. Hence, raising the minimum public float threshold should ensure wider ownership through institutional investors, adding more market depth and likely leading to better corporate governance.

传统上,印度股市的私人控股比例较高,公众可获得的自由流通股较少。因此,提高最低公众持股比例,还应确保机构投资者获得更广泛的持股比例,增加市场深度,或将提升企业治理水平。

We also expect the proposal will help attract higher foreign capital and increase India’s weight in MSCI and FTSE emerging market indexes over the next few years. However, the higher threshold could pose a challenge to listed companies, particularly multinationals, as it could impact who has control over the companies. Some companies with low public float may consider delisting, unless they are fine with increasing the public shareholding by another 10%.

我们预计,该计划将有助于吸引更多外资,并在未来几年增加印度在摩根士丹利和富时新兴市场指数中的权重。然而,更高的门槛可能对上市企业构成挑战,尤其是跨国企业,因为这可能影响到这些企业的控制者。一些公众流通比例较低的企业可能会考虑退市,除非他们可接受公众持股比例再增加 10%。

Although we think this proposal is viewed as a positive for equities in the long run, it might negatively impact the weight in global benchmark indexes in the short term due to subsequent sales from majority shareholders of some of their stakes. However, the potential impact would depend on the time allowed by the regulator to comply with the new norms.

尽管我们认为,从长远来看,这一计划对股票市场有利,但由于多数股东随后将出售部分股权,短期内可能会对全球基准指数的权重产生负面影响。然而,潜在影响还将取决于监管机构允许企业适应新规范的时长。

Potential Sector Impacts

潜在板块影响

Like nearly all government policies, there are aspects of the budget which are likely to prove more positive for certain sectors of the market than others.

与几乎所有的政府政策一样,预算案的某些方面可能会对市场的一些特定板块更有利。

  • Real Estate/Housing: Increased tax exemption on interest on housing loans could help boost low-cost housing demand. This looks positive for property developers, housing financing, as well as housing-related goods such as cement, paints and fans.
  • Financials (Banks and non-banking finance companies [NBFCs]): Public sector bank recapitalization should help provide some growth capital to these entities and hopefully kickstart credit flow. Apart from better liquidity access from the limited 10% credit guarantee for investment in high-rated NBFC in pooled assets, the additional deduction of income tax on mortgages brings down effective interest rate and should benefit all housing financiers. While public sector bank recapitalization is encouraging for the public banks, we continue to prefer good quality, private retail-focused banks and corporate banks.
  • Communication Services (Telecoms): Low interest rates should benefit sectors with traditionally higher leverage such as telecoms and metals.
  • Energy (Oil and gas): The increase in duties on petrol and diesel increases working capital (i.e. debt) for oil marketing companies, so this isn’t an area we favor at this time.
  • Consumer (Luxury goods): The increase in customs duty on gold from 10.0% to 12.5% could impact near-term demand until consumers get used to the higher price-level. The increased income tax for higher income households could also be a potential negative for consumption of high-ticket items. Additionally, the much-anticipated boost to rural household incomes was not provided, which could be negative for sentiment towards consumer staples companies in the near term.
  • Information Technology (IT): Buyback of shares by listed companies will now be taxed at 20% (to be paid by the company doing the buyback on the distributed income), similar to dividends. This could be relatively negative for IT companies, as Indian companies have traditionally used share buybacks to pay out shareholders with a lower tax impact. The removal of this loophole could lead to a reduction in dividend payouts from IT companies. In addition, foreign bond issuance could lead to some rupee appreciation, which would be a negative for exporters such as IT services companies. Separately on a positive note, the government has emphasized initiatives to encourage high-tech spending. It has identified IT as one of 12 “champion service sectors” and has set up a US$745.82 million fund for realizing the potential of these champion service sectors.
  • Financials (Insurance): The government proposed an increase in the foreign investment limit on insurance intermediaries to 100% from 49%. This should help capital inflow for companies investing in technology solutions for the insurance sector to achieve better penetration rates.
  • 房地产/住房:提高住房贷款利息的税收减免额有助于推动低成本住房需求。对于房地产开发商、住房贷款以及与住房相关的商品(如水泥、油漆和风扇)来说,这看起来是利好消息。
  • 金融(银行和非银行金融企业 [NBFC]):公共部门银行资本重组应有助于为这些实体提供一些成长资本,并有望启动信贷资金流动。为投资非银行金融企业高评级集合资产提供最高 10%的信用担保将提供更好的流动性,除此以外,抵押贷款所得税的额外扣除降低实际利率,并应使所有住房贷款提供方受益。虽然公共部门银行的资本重组提振了业内信心,但我们仍然偏好高质量、以零售业务为主的私人银行和企业银行。
  • 通信服务(电信):对于电信和金属等历来杠杆率较高的行业,低利率应是利好消息。
  • 能源(石油和天然气):汽油和柴油关税的增加则意味着石油营销企业营运资本(即债务)的增加,因此,我们目前不看好这一领域。
  • 消费品(奢侈品):黄金关税从 10.0% 增加到 12.5%,可能会影响短期需求,直到消费者习惯于更高的价格水平。高收入家庭所得税增加也可能对高价产品的消费产生潜在的负面影响。此外,备受期待的提振农村家庭收入的举措并未出台,短期内对消费必需品企业的市场情绪或将受到抑制。
  • 信息科技 (IT):如今,上市企业回购股份将适用 20% 的税率(由进行回购的企业以已分配收益支付),与派息类似。这对 IT 企业来说或是相对不利的,因为印度企业传统上利用股票回购的形式向股东派息,这种方式税收影响较小。消除这个漏洞后,可能会导致 IT 企业减少股息支出。此外,发行外国债券可能导致卢比升值,这将对 IT 服务企业等出口商造成负面影响。另外一个积极的方面,政府正积极推进鼓励高科技支出的举措。它已 将 IT 确定为 12 个“冠军服务板块”之一,并设立了一个 7.4582 亿美元的基金,挖掘这些冠军服务行业的潜力。[1]
  • 金融(保险):政府提议将保险中介机构的外国投资限额从 49% 提高至 100%。这将有助于投资于保险板块技术解决方案的企业的资本流入,提升渗透率。

Outlook on India

印度前景展望

While most aspects of the budget look encouraging, clarity is still required in some areas, such as the sources of funding for infrastructure outside of the budget, the quantum of US dollar-denominated bond issuances by the government, or the timeline for increase public float in listed equities.

尽管预算案的大部分内容令人鼓舞,但某些方面仍需进一步明确,例如预算外基础设施的资金来源、政府发行以美元计价债券的数额,或上市股票增加公众持股比例的时间表。

But now with the elections behind us, we expect market focus to shift to the fundamentals, such as earnings growth, inflation and fiscal prudence.

随着选举的结束,我们预计市场焦点将转向基本面,如盈利增长、通胀和财政审慎。

We are seeing signs of a recovery in India’s industrial sector and expect to see a continued increase in capacity utilization, which we think should prompt companies to start investing again. This in turn would be likely to lift profitability.

我们看到印度工业板块复苏的迹象,预计产能利用率将继续上升,我们认为这将促使企业重新开始投资。这或许将提升盈利能力。

The risks we currently see are related to global factors, such as trade tensions, US Federal Reserve policy and rising oil prices. A global slowdown in growth could affect segments of the Indian economy that are more dependent on exports. That said, rising domestic consumption has tilted India’s economy to be less reliant on the export sector, which makes India less vulnerable to adverse global factors, in our view.

我们目前看到的风险与全球因素有关,如贸易紧张局势、美联储政策和油价上涨。全球经济增长放缓,印度经济中更加依赖出口的部分可能会受影响。即便如此,我们认为,随着国内消费增长,印度经济对出口依赖程度有所降低,因此,在面对不利的全球因素时,使得印度不那么容易受到全球不利因素的影响。

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想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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想要及时投资,请在推特上关注 @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. 

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as the prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。债券价格通常与利率走势相反。因此,当债券价格随着利率的上升而调整时,股价可能会下跌。

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1. Source: India Brand Equity Foundation, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India, updated June 2019.

[1]资料来源:印度品牌证券基金会,印度商工部,更新于二零一九年六月。

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