新兴市场在低收益环境中的吸引力
Emerging Market Appeal in a Low-Yielding Worl
1761字
2019-12-01 09:44
58阅读
火星译客

Global investors searching for income opportunities may find the current climate particularly challenging, given a growing pool of negative-yielding debt. Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions’ Subash Pillai outlines why he thinks yield-seeking investors might take notice of emerging markets.

正在寻找获得收入机会的全球投资者可能会发现,当前的环境尤其具有挑战性,因为负收益债券不断增多。富兰克林邓普顿多元资产方案团队的 Subash Pillai 以专业眼光概述了他认为追求收益的投资者可能会关注新兴市场的原因。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

With developed market fixed income yields at or near record lows, we think many yield-seeking investors may need to look outside the box to satisfy their income requirements. For example, these investors may be asking themselves whether now is a good time to buy more German or Japanese long-term sovereign debt—both of which are at negative yields.

在已发展市场固定收益债券的收益率处于或接近历史低点的情况下,我们认为,许多追求收益的投资者可能需要打破常规思维才能满足自己的收入需求。例如,这些投资者可以扪心自问,现在是否是买进更多德国或日本长期国债的好时机,因为两者都是负收益。

We believe there’s a strong case for income investing in emerging markets, which we see as the main driver of global growth over the next century.

在新兴市场进行收益投资有充分的理由,我们将新兴市场视为下个世纪全球增长的主要动力。

Investors might consider allocating more capital to bonds in places like India, Indonesia, Mexico or Brazil, where sovereign debt yields are hovering around the 6% to 7% range.1

投资者可能会考虑将更多资本配置到印度、印尼、墨西哥或巴西等地的债券上,这些国家/地区的国债收益率徘徊在 6% 至 7% 之间。[1]

A Story of Transformation

一个转型的故事

As the name implies, emerging markets are a story of transformation. In the past few decades, we have witnessed dramatic economic shifts, driven in part by changing demographics, the rise of consumerism and the embrace of new technological innovations. For these and other reasons, emerging market equities also represent a compelling investment opportunity in our view. The shift from old economy to new economy in emerging markets is well-entrenched, as is the shift from foreign to domestic revenues.

顾名思义,新兴市场无疑书写的是一个转型的故事。在过去几十年里,我们目睹了巨大的经济转型,而人口结构变化、消费主义兴起和新技术创新应用可谓其中的部分推动因素。基于上述及其他原因,新兴市场股票也代表着引人注目的投资机会。新兴市场从旧经济向新经济的转型大势已成,从国外收入向国内收入的转变也是如此。

However, many investors remain stuck in the past when it comes to how they think about emerging markets—failing to recognize the new opportunities now in front of them. We think it’s important to think about not only today’s opportunities, but position for the future as well.

但是,许多投资者对新兴市场的看法仍停留在过去,未能认识到他们面前的新机遇。不仅要考虑新兴市场今天的机会,还要考虑新兴市场未来的地位,这一点至关重要。

China is a shining example of an emerging market that rose from an agrarian society to a global superpower in just a few decades. But it’s not the only emerging economy on the rise. Emerging markets today represent more than 50% of the global economy, based on gross domestic product (GDP).2 Emerging markets overall have been growing faster than developed markets overall for the past decade, with projected 2019 and 2020 GDP growth more than double that of advanced economies, according to the International Monetary Fund.3

中国在短短几十年内从农业社会一跃成为全球超级大国,无疑是新兴市场的一个耀眼例子。然而,中国并不是唯一一个正在崛起的新兴经济体。按国内生产总值 (GDP) 计算,新兴市场目前占全球经济的 50% 以上。[2] 国际货币基金组织的数据显示,在过去10年里,就整体增长速度而言,新兴市场一直超过已发展市场,预计二零一九年和二零二零年的 GDP 增长率将是已发展经济体的两倍以上。[3]

Opportunity Set Has Been Expanding

机会一直在扩大

Within fixed income, investors have seen an expanding opportunity set, including government (sovereign) bonds as well as corporate credit. These can be issued in local or “hard” currencies—such as the US dollar, yen or euro. The emerging market fixed income universe has grown from US$0.3 trillion in 1995 to US$21.5 trillion in 2019.4

投资者在固定收益领域看到不断扩大的机会,包括政府(主/权)债券和企业信贷。这些债券能够以当地货币或“硬通货”发行,比如美元、日元或欧元。新兴市场固定收益规模已从一九九五年的 0.3 万亿美元增长到二零一九年的 21.5 万亿美元。[4]

From a global fixed income perspective, a number of factors are currently shaping financial markets today, including geopolitical risks and trade tensions, populism and political polarization. In addition, markets are grappling with unrestrained deficit spending in the developed world, low interest rates and underappreciated inflation risks, as well as overvaluations in many risk assets. As investors search for yield, emerging-market fixed income can look compelling—although certainly not without some risks.

从全球固定收益市场的角度来看,目前正在影响当今金融市场的因素有很多,包括地缘政治风险和贸易紧张局势、民粹主义和政治两极分化。此外,已发展国家无节制的赤字支出、低利率和被低估的通胀风险以及许多风险资产的估值过高也在影响市场。在投资者寻求收益之际,新兴市场的固定收益看起来很有吸引力,尽管必然存在一定风险。

Within equities, emerging markets represent slightly more than 17% of the world’s market cap of $80.9 trillion.5 More opportunities continue to open up to foreign investors in these dynamic markets, with increasing weights in major benchmark indexes. Domestic Chinese equities now have a greater presence in both the MSCI and FTSE Emerging Markets Indexes—with more shares still to be added. Meanwhile, Argentina and Saudi Arabia also saw status upgrades from index providers.

股票方面,新兴市场占全球 80.9 万亿美元市值的 17% 多一点。[5] 在这些充满活力的市场中,随着主要基准指数权重不断增加,更多的机会继续向外国投资者开放。现在,中国国内股票在摩根士丹利资本国际和富时新兴市场指数中的权重都有所提高,仍有更多股票会入市。同时,指数提供商也上调了阿根廷和沙特阿拉伯的评级。

Given higher growth prospects with generally lower valuations compared to developed markets—to us, this makes a compelling investment case.

与已发展市场相比,中国股市的估值普遍较低,但增长前景较好,对我们来说,这是一个有说服力的投资理由。

Emerging market equities have fluctuated in recent months, driven primarily by uncertainties around US-China trade negotiations and US monetary policy. Despite the uncertainties, we believe improving fundamentals generally support the asset class. These fundamentals include a combination of flexible exchange rate systems, greater fiscal discipline and stronger sovereign balance sheets. Overall, we consider equities’ structural drivers to be largely intact, including the rise of consumerism and technology. We seek to invest in companies that demonstrate sustainable earnings power and potential resilience against market uncertainty.

近几个月,新兴市场股市出现波动,主要推动因素是围绕中美贸易谈判和美国货币政策的不确定性。尽管存在不确定性,我们认为该资产类别总体上得到改善的基本面支撑。这些基本面包括皆而有之的灵活汇率制度、更严格的财政纪律和更稳健的主/权资产负债表。总而言之,股市的结构性驱动因素(包括消费主义的兴起和科技)基本未受影响。我们力求投资于那些表现出可持续盈利能力和抗市场不确定性潜力的企业。

Lessons of the Past

从过去获得的经验

Past crises have taught emerging market economies to minimize external borrowing and focus on their own domestic markets, improving their resilience to external shocks. As a result, we’ve generally seen higher-than-average credit quality for local currency issuances. The average debt-to-GDP ratio for emerging market countries has dropped despite rapid growth in local currency debt issuance.

新兴市场经济体从过去的危机中学会尽量减少外部借贷,并专注于本国市场,这提高了新兴市场经济体抗外部冲击的能力。因此,我们往往发现本币发行的信贷质量高于平均水平。尽管本币债券发行迅速增长,但新兴市场国家/地区的平均债务与 GDP 比率有所下降。

Local currency bonds also tend to be more liquid than hard currency bonds as domestic investors step in to buy just as foreign investors are fleeing.

本币债券往往也比硬通货债券流动性更强,因为就在外国投资者纷纷撤离之际,国内投资者却入手购买。

We favor select currency positions in countries we view as having healthy or improving fundamentals, along with attractive risk-adjusted returns. For example, in Indonesia, we expect continued emphasis on prudent, stable economic management as part of President Joko Widodo’s administration. The country has benefitted from greater policy coherence and increasing transparency in recent years. Ongoing reforms have sought to balance the country’s growth drivers and potentially accelerate domestic development.

我们偏好那些基本面健康或正在改善,且拥有具吸引力的风险调整后回报的国家/地区的精选货币头寸。例如,印尼预期将继续强调谨慎和稳定的经济管理,这是佐科·维多多总统政府管理措施的一部分。近年来政策的一致性和透明度提高令印尼受益匪浅。持续进行的改革一直努力平衡印尼的增长动力,并有可能加速国内发展。

Brazil has certainly faced some recent headwinds, but we note its central bank is independent, which is an orthodox policy approach. And, the country’s finance minister seems committed to appropriate policies. Reforms underway in Brazil represent a major structural shift that we think should unlock the economy’s domestic growth drivers.

巴西最近确实遇到了一些阻力,但我们注意到,巴西央行是独立的,这是一种正统的政策方式。而且,巴西财政部长似乎致力于采取适当的政策。巴西正在进行的改革是一个重大的结构性转变,我们认为这应该能够释放国内经济增长的动力。

These are just a couple of examples. Our long experience of emerging market investing tells us that an active allocation approach—applying top-down as well as bottom-up perspective—to decide the weightings of asset classes across a portfolio may help illuminate risks in aggregate. This approach may also help investors make decisions around their expectations.

这只是几个例子。在新兴市场投资的长期经验告诉我们,积极的资本配置方法(从自上而下和自下而上的角度决定投资组合中资产类别的权重)可能有助于阐明总体风险。这种方法也可以帮助投资者根据他们的预期做出决定。

Taking a dynamic approach ourselves allows us to maintain a long-term view while remaining on the ball about macroeconomic changes—dialing up or down our exposure across asset classes as we deem appropriate based on factors such as economic and inflation forecasts, valuation measures and historical risk premia.

我们采取动态方法,这让我们既能保持着眼于长期,又能对宏观经济变化保持警惕。也就是说,根据经济和通胀预测、估值指标和历史风险溢价等因素,在恰到好处的时机调高或降低我们在各类资产中的风险敞口。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

想要及时投资,请关注Twitter @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。

The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments. The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual invest­ment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable, but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as invest­ment advice or as an offer for any particular security. 

本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。

Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. 

过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as the prices of bonds adjust to a rise in interest rates, the share price may decline. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。债券价格通常与利率走势相反。因此,当债券价格随着利率的上升而调整时,股价可能会下跌。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。

__________________________

__________________________

1. Source: Bloomberg, as of September 24, 2019.

[1]资料来源:彭博资讯,截至 2019 年 9 月 24 日。

2. Source: International Monetary Fund DataMapper, April 2019 World Economic Outlook, data from 2008-2018. GDP based on purchasing power parity, share of world.

[2]资料来源:国际货币基金组织 DataMapper,2019 年 4 月《世界经济展望》,2008-2018 年数据。GDP 基于购买力平价,全球份额。

3. Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2019 Economic Outlook database. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[3]资料来源:国际货币基金组织,2019 年 4 月《经济展望》数据库。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会实现。

4. Sources: Bank for International Settlements, Institute of International Finance. Data from December 1, 1995, through March 31, 2019. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results.

[4]资料来源:国际清算银行,国际金融协会。1995 年 12 月 1 日至 2019 年 3 月 31 日的数据。过往业绩不代表、也不保证将来的表现。

5. Source: MSCI via Bloomberg. Emerging markets are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Developed markets are represented by the MSCI World Index. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[5]资料来源:摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI) 通过彭博资讯发布的数据。新兴市场由 MSCI 新兴市场指数代表。已发展市场由 MSCI 全球指数代表。MSCI 不会就此处转载的任何 MSCI 数据作任何保证或承担任何责任。不可二次传播或使用。本报告不由 MSCI 编制或授权。欲获得更多数据提供者的资料,敬请浏览网站www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

0 条评论
评论不能为空