总统历史学家预测,特朗普陷入“严重麻烦”,民调显示该国半数人希望总统被弹劾
Trump is in "deep trouble," presidential historian predicts as poll shows half of country wants president impeached
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2019-11-30 23:10
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Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley predicted that President Donald Trump is in "deep trouble" after a recent poll showed that 50 percent of respondents want the commander-in-chief impeached and removed from office.

总统历史学家道格拉斯·布林克利(Douglas Brinkley)预测,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)陷入“严重麻烦”,此前的一项民意调查显示,有50%的受访者希望将总司令弹劾并免职。

Brinkley, who is a professor of history at Rice University and a best-selling author, made the remark during a Friday interview with CNN, in which he discussed the network's latest impeachment poll that showed that support for the president's impeachment and removal remained steady at the end of November compared to October. However, there has been a significant jump since the spring, when only 36 percent supported Trump's impeachment.

布林克利是莱斯大学的历史教授,也是一位畅销书作家,他在周五接受美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)采访时发表了上述言论。他在采访中讨论了该网最新的弹劾民调,民调显示,与10月相比,11月底对总统弹劾和罢免的支持率保持相对稳定。不过,自今年春天以来,支持弹劾特朗普的人数比例大幅上升,此前只有36%的人表示支持。

CNN anchor John Avlon pointed out that looking back at previous impeachment proceedings for President Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, the trend was different. Polls in support of Nixon being impeached remained below 50 percent until August of 1974, the same month Nixon resigned. In the case of Clinton, support for impeachment never rose above 35 percent.

美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)主播约翰·艾夫龙指出,回顾美国总统理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)和比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)此前的弹劾程序,趋势有所不同。直到1974年8月,即尼克松辞职之前,支持尼克松被弹劾的民调一直低于50%。就克林顿而言,弹劾案的支持率从未超过35%。

CNN presidential historian Douglas Brinkley on a recent poll showing 50% of Americans support impeaching and removing Trump from office:
After Congress votes, "you're going to see that movement grow even more... He's a base politician. He doesn't know how to turn this around." pic.twitter.com/wR9iCB4Jho

CNN总统历史学家道格拉斯·布林克利(Douglas Brinkley)在最近的一项民意调查中显示,有50%的美国人支持弹劾特朗普并将其免职: 
国会投票通过后,“您将看到该运动进一步扩大……他是一名卑鄙的政客。他不知道如何扭转这一局面。” pic.twitter.com/wR9iCB4Jho

— New Day (@NewDay) November 29, 2019

-新日(@NewDay) ,2019年11月29日

"It just tells you what deep trouble Donald Trump's in," Brinkely assessed, responding to Avlon's comments. "I mean, when you have 50 percent of the country wanting you – not just impeached – but removed from office, and the game hasn't even gotten fast yet," the historian continued, "I think when the vote's taken by Congress to impeach him, and he's wearing the eye on his chest, you're going to see that movement grow even more."

布林克利在回应艾夫伦的评论时说:“这只会是告诉你唐纳德·特朗普陷入了多大的麻烦。” “我的意思是,当有50%的国民想要您-不仅被弹劾-还被免职时,而且游戏甚至都还没有开始,”历史学家继续说,“我想当国会通过投票弹劾他,他低头看着自己时,您会看发现这场弹劾运动越发激烈了。”

Brinkely said that the poll results "tells you he doesn't have a lot of friends. He's a base politician. He doesn't know how to turn this around." The academic went on to say that he thinks the "charges of corruption [against Trump] are just deep and real." He also suggested that the impeachment proceedings could hurt the president in the 2020 election.

布林克利(Brinkely)说,民意调查结果“现实他没有很多朋友。他是一名卑鄙的政治人物。他不知道如何扭转这种局面。”这位学者认为“(针对特朗普)腐败的指控是深刻而真实的”。他还指出弹劾程序可能会在2020年大选中损害总统的地位。

Although the recent CNN poll shows half the country supporting Trump's impeachment and removal, there is a steep partisan divide. While the vast majority of Democrats want Trump out of the White House, most Republicans do not believe he should impeached, let alone removed from office.

尽管最近的CNN调查显示,有一半国民支持特朗普的弹劾和罢免,但党派间的分歧仍然很大。尽管绝大多数民主党人希望特朗普离开白宫,但大多数共和党人都不认为他应该被弹劾,更别说是被免职了。

Other national polls vary as well, with some showing less and others showing greater support for the president's impeachment. A Reuters/Ipso survey published this week showed that 47 percent of respondents support impeachment, while 40 percent opposed it. An Economist/YouGov poll was slightly higher, with 49 percent in favor, while 42 percent were against. But November polls by Quinnipiac and CBS News showed 54 percent and 53 percent of respondents – respectively – were pro-impeachment.

其他国家的民调结果也不尽相同,一些国家更多的表示支持,另一些则更表示不支持总统被弹劾。路透/Ipso本周公布的一项调查显示,47%的受访者支持弹劾,40%的人反对弹劾。经济学家/YouGov的一项民调结果略高,49%的人支持,42%的人反对。但是,昆尼皮亚克和哥伦比亚广播公司新闻11月的民调显示,分别有54%和53%的受访者支持弹劾。

Donald Trump

President Donald Trump steps off Air Force One upon arrival at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida on November 26 MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty

唐纳德·特朗普总统于11月26日抵达佛罗里达州西棕榈滩国际机场后,从空军一号飞机上走下来。MANDEL NGAN / AFP / Getty

Although it appears increasingly likely that Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Democrats, most analysts believe it is unlikely he will be removed from office by the Republican-controlled Senate. As a two-thirds majority vote is required for a president's removal from office, 20 Republican senators would have to join with every single Democrat and Independent in the upper chamber of Congress in voting for the president's removal in order for it to pass.

尽管特朗普被民主党控制的众议院弹劾的可能性似乎越来越大,但多数分析人士认为,他不太可能被共和党控制的参议院免职。由于必须有三分之二的多数票才能罢免总统,因此20名共和党参议员必须与国会上议院每一位民主党人和独立人士一起投票支持,总统的免职才能获得通过。

Some analysts do believe, however, that if public opinion shifts significantly above 50 percent in support of Trump's removal, GOP senators may turn against the president.

但是,一些分析人士坚信,如果支持特朗普下台的民意明显高于50%,那么共和党参议员可能会转而反对总统。

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