新兴市场小盘股会否反弹?
Are EM Small-Cap Stocks Due for a Rebound?
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2019-11-30 09:19
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While investor interest in emerging markets picked up in the first quarter of 2019, many seemed to overlook small-cap stocks in the space. Here, the Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity team suggests some reasons why investors might want to consider select EM small-cap stocks.

二零一九年第一季度,投资者重拾对新兴市场的兴趣,但许多投资者似乎忽视了新兴市场小盘股。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队以专业眼光诠释原由,建议投资者考虑投资新兴市场小盘股。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish

这篇文章也有中文(简体),法语, 德语, 意大利语和西班牙语的版本。

Almost all major asset classes experienced declines in 2018—it was clearly a challenging year. EM small-cap stocks (as defined by the MSCI EM Small Cap Index) were not immune, suffering double-digit declines. However, the asset class saw a rebound in the first quarter of this year, as the index delivered a gain of 7.8%.1

二零一八年,主要资产类别几乎全线下跌,这显然是艰难的一年。新兴市场小盘股(根据 MSCI 新兴市场小盘股指数定义)也未能幸免,跌幅达两位数。不过,该资产类别今年第一季度出现反弹,指数上升 7.8%。[1]

Yet, in a continuation from last year, EM small caps didn’t keep pace with their EM large-cap counterparts in the first quarter.2 In our view, part of this underperformance can be attributed to some investor misconceptions about EM small caps. As we mentioned in this article, these misconceptions, such as a view that EM small caps are more volatile than larger-cap EM stocks, conceal key strengths that an active manager could potentially benefit from.

然而,新兴市场小盘股的表现像去年一样,无法与大盘股并驾齐驱。[2] 我们认为,部分原因可能在于投资者对新兴市场小盘股存在一些误解。正如我们在这篇文章中提到,这些误解,例如认为新兴市场小盘股的波动性高于大盘股的观点,掩盖了令主动管理型投资经理可能受益匪浅的关键优势。

Opportunities in EM Small-Cap Stocks

新兴市场小盘股中的机遇

The EM small-cap space remains attractive to us, partly because many of the headwinds in 2018 have already been priced into valuations or are likely to abate this year. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken a more dovish tone this year. At its March 2019 meeting, the Fed confirmed the patient tone on interest rates it already adopted in January.

新兴市场小盘股仍极具吸引力,部分原因在于二零一八年的许多不利因素已反映在估值中,或者今年可能会减弱。美联储 (Fed) 今年一直采取更为温和的鸽派作风。在二零一九年三月的会议上,美联储坐实了其在一月份已采取的耐心基调。

Also, in terms of US-China trade relations, signs are pointed more optimistically that there will be a near-term agreement, although the possibility that a trade agreement is not reached is a major tail risk.

此外,在中美贸易关系方面亦有更乐观的迹象表明,双方将在近期达成协议。不过,未能达成贸易协议的可能性仍会是一大主要尾端风险。

In addition, the market’s general expectation is that oil prices will remain relatively range-bound, given continued growth in supply and weakened demand with a global economic slowdown. In our view, stable oil prices should support consumption and ease inflation for certain Asian economies, such as India, that are net importers of oil.

此外,市场普遍预期,由于供应持续增长和全球经济放缓导致需求减少,油价将保持相对区间波动。在我们看来,对亚洲经济体中某些石油净进口国(比如印度)而言,稳定的油价应会支撑消费,缓解通胀。

We think for many investors the current market environment provides a particularly attractive entry point. In particular, we like select companies in the health care sector, as well as companies that stand to benefit from long-term secular trends relating to consumption and innovation.

我们认为,对许多投资者来说,目前的市场环境提供了一个特别有吸引力的买入契机。我们尤其看好医疗保健行业中的优选企业,以及那些能够从与消费和创新相关的长期趋势中获益的企业。

Health Care

医疗保健

Demographic shifts and aging populations in many emerging-market countries are intensifying pressures on health care systems. In our view, these factors will continue to be a boon for hospitals, dietary supplements, medical devices and pharmaceuticals.

许多新兴市场国家和地区的人口变化与人口老龄化增加了医疗保健系统的压力。我们认为,这些因素将继续有利于医院、保健品、医疗设备和制药行业。

The health care landscape is also changing, with growing consumer awareness fueling medical and wellness needs. We are seeing more consumers embrace preventive health care out of a desire to look and feel better.

医疗保健领域也在发生变化,消费者意识不断增强,推动了医疗和健康需求的增长。我们看到,越来越多消费者为追求美丽和健康体验而积极接受预防性医疗保健。

For example, we like the long-term prospects for a South Korean company that produces products using botulinum toxin type A for both therapeutic purposes and aesthetic purposes. This company has entered the global botulinum toxin market and we think it is well-positioned to benefit from the growing global demand for anti-aging products, particularly in fast-growing economies such as China where this segment is forecast to grow fast in the decades ahead.

例如,我们看好一家韩国企业的长远前景,该企业使用 A 型肉毒杆菌毒素生产兼具治疗和美容功效的产品。该企业已进入全球肉毒杆菌毒素市场,我们认为该企业将从抗衰老产品日益增长的全球性需求中获益,尤其是在中国等快速增长的经济体,预计未来几十年,该行业将在中国取得迅猛发展。

Consumption

消费

Rising domestic consumption remains a long-term secular driver for emerging markets. We believe the demand for goods and services in emerging markets is set to accelerate on the back of a burgeoning young and working population, coupled with rising household incomes.

不断增长的国内消费仍然是新兴市场的一个长期驱动因素。我们相信,在年轻和劳动人口迅速增长以及家庭收入提高的背景下,新兴市场对商品和服务的需求将加速增长。

In our view, this growing demand will create opportunities for businesses that tap into the growing consumer market. In particular, we like select companies that stand to benefit from the rising trend of premiumization of consumer goods and services. We also see rising incomes driving demand for more sophisticated financial products and services such as wealth management and asset management.

在我们看来,这种持续增长的需求将为进入不断发展的消费市场的企业带来机会。具体而言,我们看好那些能够从消费品和服务高端化趋势中获益的企业。我们还看到,收入增长推动了对更复杂金融产品和服务的需求,比如财富管理和资产管理。

Innovation

创新

Emerging-market companies have not only embraced the use of technology but have become global market innovators in many areas. As we mentioned in this article, emerging markets are now at the forefront of the latest technological developments, from mobile banking and shopping to robotics, autonomous vehicles, health care and more.

新兴市场企业不仅积极应用技术,而且在许多领域成为全球市场的创新者。正如我们在这篇文章中提到,新兴市场目前正处于最新技术开发的前沿,涵盖从移动银行、移动购物到机器人技术、无人驾驶汽车、医疗保健等等诸多领域。

We expect technology to continue to reshape emerging markets, as technology disruptors become the norm by transforming industry landscapes, and companies continue to embrace technology and innovation.

我们预计,随着技术颠覆者改变行业格局成为常态,以及企业在技术和创新方面持续发力,技术将继续重塑新兴市场。

Technology is changing the automobile industry, introducing new trends such as electric vehicles and automated driving systems. In addition, e-commerce is still very much a penetration story, resonating in several markets as consumers increasingly use multiple devices for online transactions.

技术亦正在改变汽车行业,带来电动汽车和自动驾驶系统等新潮流。此外,随着消费者越来越多地使用多种设备进行在线交易,电子商务谱写的仍旧是向不同终端渗透,并力求在多个市场同步发展的故事。

Investment Implications

投资展望

Perhaps what is most important to recognize is that there are numerous EM small-cap companies that will likely remain small, whether due to corporate governance issues, poor quality of management, lack of market growth or other factors. The role of an active manager is to seek out companies which will succeed over the long term, while striving to reduce downside risk and thus enhance risk-adjusted returns.

也许最重要的是要认识到,无论是由于公司治理问题、管理质量差、缺乏市场增长还是其他因素,许多新兴市场小盘股公司的成长规模将止步不前。主动管理型投资经理的职责是寻找那些能够在长期取得成功的公司,同时努力降低下行风险,从而提高风险调整后的回报。

At Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity, we believe active managers who can focus on risk management and long-term growth drivers for the asset class are best equipped to uncover opportunities in this space. Our EM small-cap research is driven by an extensive on-the-ground team of over 80 portfolio managers and analysts in 16 countries, which allows us to have regular face-to-face meetings.

富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队相信,最有能力发现新兴市场机会者定是那些能够专注于资产类别的风险管理与长期增长动力的主动管理型投资经理。我们来自 16 个国家和地区的 80 多名贴近当地市场的投资组合经理与分析师组成了一支强大团队,负责新兴市场小盘股研究,并使我们得以定期进行面对面会议。

Overall, with our bottom-up, high-conviction, long-term investment approach we look to invest in companies with good management teams, where we have conviction that they can make the right strategic choices.

总的来说,秉持自下而上、高信念、长期投资的理念,我们希望投资于拥有良好管理团队的企业,我们深信其能够做出正确的战略选择。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。该材料不作为有关任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略任何重大事件的完整分析。

The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。

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想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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想要及时投资,请在推特上关注 @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. Smaller and newer companies can be particularly sensitive to changing economic conditions. Their growth prospects are less certain than those of larger, more established companies, and they can be volatile.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、新市场进入者带来的竞争压力以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术行业产生重大影响。中小型和较新的或未成熟的公司,对不断变化的经济条件可能特别敏感,它们的增长前景比大型和更成熟的公司更不确定。而且这些证券比大公司展现出更大的股票价格波动。

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1. Source: MSCI, as of March 29, 2019. The MSCI EM Small Cap Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure performance of small cap equities in emerging markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results.

[1] 资料来源:MSCI,截至 2019 年 3 月 29 日。MSCI 新兴市场小盘股指数是指经过自由浮动调整的市值加权指数,用于衡量新兴市场小盘股的表现。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不包括手续费、支出或销售费用。过往表现不代表或保证未来表现。

2. Ibid. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results.

[2] 出处同上。MSCI 新兴市场指数采集了 24 个新兴市场国家和地区的大中盘股代表。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数不包括手续费、支出或销售费用。过往表现不代表或保证未来表现。

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