回顾人大:中国的再平衡行动
NPC Recap: China's Re-Balancing Act
1212字
2019-11-30 09:19
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火星译客

In the face of slowing economic growth, the Chinese authorities appear ready to act. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Sukumar Rajah and Jason Zhu explain how measures announced at the 13th National People’s Congress are designed to shore up China’s growth prospects.

直面经济增长放缓,中国政府似谋定而动。富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的 Sukumar Rajah 和 Jason Zhu 解释了第十三届全国人民代表大会宣布的各项措施将如何帮助提振中国的经济增长前景。

这篇文章也有中文(简体),法语, 德语, 意大利语, 西班牙语, 波兰语的版本。

Measures announced at China’s 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) suggest to us that the Chinese authorities are taking the threat of an economic slowdown seriously and are prepared to act.

中国第十三届全国人民代表大会 (NPC) 宣布的措施向我们表明,中国政府正在认真应对经济放缓的威胁,并且准备采取行动。

While China faces slowing gross domestic product (GDP) growth, a trade standoff with the United States and disputes over China allowing foreign companies market access in return for technology transfers, we see policymakers stepping up to the plate to readjust and rebalance targets for a more sustainable economy.

虽然中国面临国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长放缓、与美国的贸易僵局以及中国允许外国公司进入市场以换取技术转让的争议,但我们看到政策制定者正在加紧步伐,重新调整和再平衡各项目标,以实现更加可持续的经济发展。

In the face of an economic slowdown, Chinese officials have lowered the country’s 2019 GDP growth forecast to a range of 6% to 6.5%, compared to last year’s target of 6.5%. However, we feel that a slowdown is not a crisis. We believe there are ample strengths in China’s institutions and economy to prevent a hard landing.

面对经济放缓,中国官员已经将该国二零一九年 GDP 增长预测从去年 6.5% 的目标下调至 6% 至 6.5% 的范围。但是,我们认为经济放缓并不是一场危机。我们相信中国的体制和经济有足够的力量来防止硬着陆。

Against this backdrop, our near-term view on China is slightly more cautious. We expect China’s economic growth to slow in the next few years as it focuses on resolving an array of challenges.

在这种背景下,我们对中国的短期看法也更加谨慎一些。我们预计,由于中国集中精力解决这一系列挑战,未来几年中国的经济增长将会放缓。

Never Underestimate China’s Strengths

永远不要低估中国的力量

In spite of these hurdles, the historical ability of the Chinese authorities to implement their policies efficiently and effectively underpins China’s potential strengths. A strong government presence in Chinese markets is nothing new.

尽管存在这些障碍,但纵观历史,中国政府能够有效且高效地实施各项政策,这种能力也为中国的潜在优势提供了支持。政府在中国市场的强大影响力已司空见惯。

China’s ability to implement policies stems from a system of central rule that has allowed it to resolve problems at a speed and scale that is virtually unmatched by other large developing nations, such as India.

中国实施政策的能力源自中央集权制,这一制度使中国能够以其他发展中大国(例如印度)几乎无法比拟的速度和规模去解决问题。

Consider the steps that China has taken to tackle excess capacity, high leverage and other economic and financial risks. In the coal industry, for example, the government shut thousands of coal producers and put numerous coal-fired power projects on hold to reduce overcapacity.

考虑一下中国为化解产能过剩、高杠杆以及其他经济和金融风险而采取的措施。例如,在煤炭行业,政府关闭了数千家煤炭生产企业,并且暂停了许多燃煤发电项目,以减少产能过剩。

The high degree of compliance underscored the administration’s ability to implement new policies. And a result of this was a sharp recovery in coal prices, which supported cash flows and the debt-servicing capability of many coal-related companies.

这种高度的遵从性突显出行政当局实施新政策的能力。其结果是煤炭价格大幅回升,支撑了许多煤炭相关企业的现金流和偿债能力。

Such supply-side policies, replicated across several industries, have helped address one of the key systemic risks in China—the concentration of debt owed by “old economy” state-owned enterprises. More importantly, these policies are part of a bigger package of reforms that government agencies have rolled out—all without dealing a major blow to overall GDP growth.

这样的供给侧政策在多个行业得到复制,帮助中国解决了一个关键的系统性风险 ——“旧经济”国有企业的债务集中问题。更重要的是,这些政策是政府机构推出的更大规模一揽子改革的一部分 —— 所有这些都没有对整体 GDP 增长造成重大打击。

External Pressures Accelerate China’s Next Move

外部压力加快中国的下一步行动

China’s transition from a manufacturing-driven economy to a services and consumption-led economy has been no mean feat. However, trade tensions with the United States have created roadblocks for China’s growth trajectory and softer domestic demand for key sectors in the country.

中国从制造业驱动型经济向服务业和消费拉动型经济转型绝非易事。但是,与美国的贸易紧张关系为中国的经济增长轨迹和国内关键行业的需求疲软制造了障碍。

This has intensified pressure for the Chinese government to act. Authorities unveiled tax cuts worth 2 trillion Chinese yuan (US$298 billion) at the NPC, which the Chinese government hopes will alleviate pressure from the manufacturing, transportation and construction sectors.­­­

这加大了中国政府采取行动的压力。有关部门在全国人大会议上公布了两万亿元人民币(二千九百八十亿美元)的减税计划,中国政府希望此举能够缓解来自制造业、运输业和建筑业的压力。

We’d expect a reduction in current value-added tax (VAT) rates to be a welcome boost for industries that are currently embroiled in the US-China trade spat, including construction material that include steel and aluminum.

我们预计,对目前卷入中美贸易争端的行业(包括钢铁和铝等建筑材料行业)而言,降低现行增值税 (VAT) 税率将是一个可喜的提振。

The trade dispute has also put China’s commitment to opening up its markets under the microscope. Questions were raised over market access, protection over intellectual property and forced technology transfers. Debates at the NPC over foreign investment laws suggest Chinese officials could be ready to revise current laws to put foreign companies on equal footing with local firms.

这场贸易战也将中国对开放市场的承诺置于显微镜下。市场准入、知识产权保护和强制技术转让方面遭到诸多质疑。全国人民代表大会针对外国投资法律的争论表明,中国官员可能准备修改现行法律,使外国公司与本土公司处于平等地位。

In our view, the longer-term outlook for China still holds promise, if its rebalancing efforts result in an economy that is sturdier and more sustainable. Nonetheless, we believe that the complex investment landscape is where active stock-picking can thrive.

在我们看来,如果中国的再平衡努力能够实现更加稳定和可持续的经济发展,那么中国的长期前景仍然充满希望。然而,我们也认为,复杂的投资环境是主动型选股能够大显身手之地。

Our Approach to Active Stock-Picking

我们的主动型选股策略

We think buoyant economic growth and loose liquidity previously had helped some companies flourish in a fast-growing economy. But amid slowing growth, waning liquidity and increasing consolidation across industries, we think there will be a greater dispersion between the winners and losers. And experience has shown us that solid fundamental research will be needed to identify them.

我们认为,强劲的经济增长和宽松的流动性曾经帮助一些公司在快速增长的经济环境中实现蓬勃发展。但在经济增长放缓、流动性减弱和行业整合增加的背景下,我们认为赢家和输家之间的差距将会拉大。经验告诉我们,需要扎实的基础研究来确定选股策略。

The encouraging news, however, is that these obstacles do not appear insurmountable for a country that has an array of proven tactics and new economic opportunities.

但是,令人欣慰的是,对于一个拥有一系列行之有效的策略和新经济机会的国家而言,这些障碍似乎并非不可逾越。

The age-old desire for progress is a powerful force, and we expect it to lead China toward sound policies that promote higher incomes and a better quality of life for its citizens. We believe this bodes well for the next chapter of its secular growth story.

长期以来对进步的渴望是一股强大的力量,我们期望它能引导中国采取合理的政策,提高国民收入和生活质量。我们相信,这对中国长期增长的新篇章是一个好兆头。

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

文中的评论、意见及分析代表股票经理的观点,仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。该材料不作为有关任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略任何重大事件的完整分析。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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想要及时投资,请在推特上关注 @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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