印度减税出人意料却正是时候
India's Surprise Tax Cut Comes at An Opportune Time
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2019-11-30 01:32
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Amid slowing economic growth in India, the Modi government’s surprise corporate tax cuts have come at an opportune time, according to Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Sukumar Rajah. He explains why the fiscal adjustment could improve India’s competitiveness among its regional peers.

富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队的 Sukumar Rajah 慧眼识玄机,在印度经济增长放缓之际,莫迪政府出人意料的公司税下调政策来得正是时候。他以专业眼光阐释了为什么此次财政调整可以提高印度在区域内的竞争力。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Polish

这篇文章还有中文(简体),法语, 德语, 意大利语, 波兰语的版本

India’s proposed corporate tax cut, which slashes the basic rate to 22% from 30% for domestic companies, is a welcome surprise.

印度提出下调公司税,将国内企业的基本税率从 30% 下调至 22%,这无疑是倍受欢迎的一大惊喜。

The meaningful reduction in corporate rates sends a strong signal to investors that the Indian government recognizes the need to improve India’s economic growth and boost the corporate sector’s competitiveness.

这次意义深远的公司税下调向投资者发出强烈的信号:印度政府认识到需要改善印度的经济增长,并提高企业部门的竞争力。

This fiscal change comes at a time where India’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth is slowing. In the second quarter of 2019, GDP grew by just 5%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of declining growth.1 India’s growth fell behind that of China, which grew 6% in the second quarter.2

这次财政调整正值印度的年化国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长放缓之际。二零一九年第二季度,印度国内生产总值的涨幅仅有 5%,标志着增长已连续第五个季度出现下降。[1] 与中国第二季度 6% 的涨幅相比,印度的增长已落后于中国。[2]

In the immediate aftermath of the tax announcement on September 20, India’s equity market reacted positively to the news, while the Indian rupee rallied. We’d also expect earnings to improve in the short term. However, bond markets declined on fears that the Indian government may now have to borrow more to meet the additional expenditure.

九月二十日宣布减税之后,印度股市随即作出积极响应,印度卢比出现反弹。此外,我们预计,短期内收益也将改善。然而,由于担心印度政府现在可能必须借入更多资金以满足额外支出,债券市场出现下跌。

From a macro perspective, the proposed stimulus might not cost the government as much as it is made out to be. It’s estimated tax cuts could cost the government around US$20 billion. Though companies who want to take advantage of the new tax rate would not be eligible for other exemptions. We think the net figure of tax revenue foregone is more likely to be close to US$10 billion.

从宏观角度来看,提出的刺激政策给政府造成的成本压力可能并不像看起来的那样大。据估计,减税将使政府收入减少约 200 亿美元。但是,想要采用新税率的企业将无法获得其他税收豁免。所以,我们认为,减少的税收净额更可能接近 100 亿美元。

Improving India’s Competitiveness

提高印度的竞争力

In our view, corporate tax cuts should likely help boost capital expenditure and attract foreign investments to India. India’s corporate tax rate is now on par with its regional peers that have manufacturing hubs, such as Cambodia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. And, India’s corporate tax rate is now more competitive than China’s 25% rate.

下调公司税可能有助于提振资本支出,并为印度吸引外国投资。印度目前的公司税率与区域内拥有制造中心的其他国家/地区持平,比如柬埔寨、台湾地区、泰国和越南。而且,与中国 25% 的公司税率相比,印度现在的公司税率更有竞争力。

New, lower corporate tax rates also included new manufacturing companies. Businesses that start operations between October 2019 and March 2023 would be eligible to apply for a 15% corporate income tax rate. This ties in with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” initiative.

更低的新公司税率也涵盖制造业新企业。二零一九年十月至二零二三年三月期间开始运营的企业将有资格申请 15% 的企业所得税税率。这与印度总统纳伦德拉·莫迪的“印度制造”倡议相一致。

Sector Implications

行业影响

Levels of impact will differ from sector to sector, particularly those subject to the highest effective tax rates.

影响程度将因行业而异,特别是适用最高有效税率的行业。

At a company level, a reduction in the tax rate will likely boost cash holdings and increase corporate profitability. We’d expect company management teams to repay debt, pass on cost savings to consumers through lower pricing, or distribute dividends to shareholders through share buybacks.

在企业层面,税率的降低可能会增加现金持有量,并提高企业盈利能力。预计企业管理层将可以偿还债务,通过降低价格把节省的成本传递给消费者,或者通过股票回购向股东派发股息。

For cash-rich companies, another potential consideration might be to resume capital expenditure (capex). We think this spending would likely bring a positive multiplier effect on the broader economy in the medium to long term.

而现金充裕的企业可能考虑恢复资本支出。中长期看,这种支出可能会给整体经济带来积极的乘数效应。

As such, we favor high tax-paying companies that could potentially benefit from the structural transformation of the Indian economy.

因此,我们偏好那些可能从印度经济结构性转型中受益的支付高额税金的企业。

Companies with existing plans for capacity expansion would directly benefit, but the tax cut alone is unlikely to trigger a wave of fresh capex from foreign companies. We believe the Indian government needs to make more progress on reforms. These include changes to land acquisition laws, labor laws and faster approvals processes to facilitate the revival of the capex cycle.

已有产能扩张计划的企业将直接受益,但单凭减税不太可能引发外国企业的新投资浪潮。印度政府需要在改革方面取得更长足的进展,包括修改土地征用法、劳动法和加快审批程序,以促进资本支出周期的复苏。

We also think the Indian government could propose more sector-specific stimulus. For example, the government could offer more housing-related benefits to increase housing demand. These measures won’t cost the government a lot, but it could boost discretionary income and impact consumer demand and therefore the economy.

此外,印度政府可以提出更多行业特定刺激政策。例如,政府可以提供更多住房相关福利,以增加住房需求。这些措施不会让政府付出太大成本,但能够增加可自由支配收入,并影响消费者需求,进而影响经济。

Broadly speaking, the global industrial universe has spare capacity and is staring at a demand slowdown. That said, India has the potential to become a sustainable alternative hub for companies wanting to diversify manufacturing processes away from China.

广而言之,全球工业界有闲置产能,但正面临需求放缓。也就是说,对于那些计划从中国分散制造流程的企业来说,印度有潜力成为一个可持续的替代中心。

We’d also expect banking names to receive a boost from companies being able to repay their debts, as a result of increased capital.

此外我们预计,由于资本增加,能够偿还债务的企业将提振银行股。

For the financial industry, some of the benefits of a lower tax rate might eventually be passed on to consumers in the medium term. Banks with alternative business segments, such as personal loans, credit cards or gold loans could stand to gain the most from the tax adjustment.

在金融业,较低税率的部分好处可能最终会在中期内传递给消费者。从这次税率调整中获益最多的可能是拥有另类业务的银行,比如个人贷款、信用卡或黄金贷款。

As long-term investors, we think India’s corporate tax cuts should help spur investment. As India grapples with slowing GDP growth, the Indian government has taken steps to give companies a boost to draw investors and restore confidence in the country’s dynamic economy.

作为长期投资者,印度下调公司税应该有助于刺激投资。在印度努力应对国内生产总值增长放缓之际,印度政府已采取措施促进企业吸引投资者,并恢复人们对该国充满活力的经济的信心。

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想要从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

想要及时投资,请关注Twitter @FTI_Emerging和LinkedIn。

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice.

文中的评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。

The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments. The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual invest­ment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable, but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as invest­ment advice or as an offer for any particular security. 

本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非为个人投资的建议或买入、卖出或持有任何特定证券、投资产品或采取任何投资策略的推荐或招揽。本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。

Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. 

过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Investments in fast-growing industries like the technology sector (which historically has been volatile) could result in increased price fluctuation, especially over the short term, due to the rapid pace of product change and development and changes in government regulation of companies emphasizing scientific or technological advancement.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。部分行业如技术部门(长期的不稳定性)快速增长投资规模可能导致价格波动加剧,这种变化在短期投资中更为显著,因为产品变化和发展的速度很快,而且政府对重视科技发展的公司的监管模式与力度也发生了变化。

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1. Source: India Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, June 2019.

[1]资料来源:印度统计及纲领推行局,2019 年 6 月。

2. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, July 2019.

[2]资料来源:国家统计局,2019 年 7 月。

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