特朗普在上周的弹劾听会上获得了支持。选民们似乎没有注意到。
Trump Got Owned in Last Week's Impeachment Hearings. Voters Didn't Seem to Notice.
684字
2019-11-28 01:25
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火星译客

WASHINGTON — House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff wrapped up two weeks of explosive impeachment hearings with a simple message: The inquiry produced “overwhelming evidence” of Trump’s wrongdoing, and it's time to move forward.

华盛顿-众议院情报委员会主席亚当-希夫结束了为期两周的爆炸性弹劾听证会,他传达了一个简单的信息:调查产生了压倒性的证据,证明特朗普的错误行为,现在是向前迈进的时候了。

But new polls suggest that Americans aren’t nearly as convinced.

但是,新的民意调查显示美国人并没有那么相信。

A trio of surveys released Tuesday show almost no change in Americans’ views of whether President Trump should be impeached from a few weeks ago. Even independents, the key persuadable voting bloc, don’t appear to have shifted in any significant way. That’s troubling for Democrats who actually hope to remove Trump from office — though it doesn’t seem to be causing Democrats any real political problems, either.

星期二公布的三项调查显示,美国人对特朗普总统是否应该被弹劾的看法几乎没有改变。即使是关键的有说服力的投票集团独立党,似乎也没有发生重大转变。这样那些真正希望罢免特朗普的民主党人感到不安——尽管这似乎也没有给民主党人带来任何真正的政治问题。

A new CNN/SSRS poll found that voters supported impeaching and removing Trump from office by 50%-43%, numbers that are identical to their last poll, in late October.

CNN/SSRS的一项最新民调显示,选民支持弹劾和罢免特朗普的比例为50%-43%,这一数字与去年10月底的民调结果相同。

A Politico/Morning Consult weekly survey found similar numbers: Voters backed the inquiry 48%-43%, identical to their final poll in October.

政治、早间资讯周刊的一项调查也发现了类似的数字:选民支持这项调查的比例为48%-43%,与十月份的最后一次投票结果相同。

Quinnipiac University found a similar lack of movement in voters’ views. Their new poll found 45% of voters supported removing Trump and 48% opposing it, nearly identical to their mid-October poll, which had a 46%-48% split. At that point, Democrats had fully committed to the impeachment inquiry — but most of the damning testimony from impeachment witnesses hadn’t yet become public knowledge, let alone broadcast live on national TV.

昆尼皮亚克大学发现,选民的观点也同样缺乏运动性他们的新民调研发现,45%的选民支持罢免特朗普,48%的人反对,这与他们10月中旬的民调几乎相同,当时的民调有46%-48%的分歧,民主党人完全致力于弹劾调查,但大多数来自弹劾的谴责性证词目击者尚未成为公众所知,更不用说在国家电视台直播了。

"The televised impeachment hearings haven't had much of an effect on the president's approval rating, or how voters feel about impeachment. The numbers still don't look good for Trump, but they definitely haven't gotten worse," said Quinnipiac University pollster Tim Malloy.

电视转播的弹劾听证会也并没有对总统的支持率产生多大影响,也没有对选民对弹劾的看法产生多大影响。昆尼皮亚克大学民调专家蒂姆-马洛伊说:”这些数字对特朗普来说仍然不好,但绝对没有变得更糟。“

These numbers are in line with what pollsters have found for more than a month: About the same number of voters think Trump should be removed from office for his actions as those who don’t. In simple terms, voters’ views have hardened on this question along partisan lines.

这些数字与民调机构一个多月来的调查结果一致:大约有同样数量的选民认为特朗普的行为应该被免职,而那些不这样做的选民认为特朗普的行为应该被免职。简单的说,选民对这个问题的看法已经沿着党派路线变得更加强硬。

解读:以下是民主党想以多快的速度弹劾特朗普

These polls are the first quality public polling released since the public impeachment inquiry hearings wrapped up last Thursday, and they're similar enough to their earlier data to suggest no significant change in voters' attitudes.

这些民调是自公众弹劾调查以来首次公布的高质量民调,与之前那些数据相似,足以表明选民的态度没有明显的改变。

It's not the groundswell of support some Democrats had hoped for, failing to bring the needed movement from independent and Republican voters that would pressure GOP lawmakers to break with Trump on impeachment — or make Trump’s actions a major problem for him in the 2020 election. But it also refutes Trump’s false claim that “support for Impeachment is dropping like a rock.”

这并不是一些民主党人所希望参加的支持浪潮,没有从独立和共和党选民那里带来必要的运动,这将迫使共和党议员在弹劾问题上与特朗普决裂,或者使特朗普的行动成为他在2020年选举中的一个主要问题。但他也驳斥了特朗普的错误说法,弹劾的支持率正在下降,就像岩石。

Essentially, like so many current issues, partisanship is so baked in that whatever new facts emerge are having almost no impact on voters’ opinions.

本质上,就像现在的许多问题一样,党派之争如此激烈,以至于无论出现什么新的事实都几乎对选民的意见没有影响。

Partisans on both sides of the issue have made up their minds. Independents’ numbers have bounced around a bit in both pollsters’ data — but given the small sample sizes for those groups, that’s likely just statistical noise rather than evidence of any real change.

问题双方的游击队员在两位民意调查者的数据中,独立选民的数字都有点反弹,但考虑到这些群体的样本量较小,这可能只是统计噪音,而不是任何实际变化的证据。

Among independent voters, CNN and Politico found slight decreases in support for the impeachment process, while Quinnipiac found a slight uptick from mid-October.

在独立选民在中,CNN和Politico发现弹劾程序的支持率略有下降,而Quinnipiac发现从10月中旬开始略有上升。

This hasn’t dissuaded Democrats, who are moving ahead at a rapid clip. Schiff’s committee is expected to release its report next Monday and the House Judiciary Committee, which will draw up the actual articles of impeachment, announced it will have its first impeachment hearing next Wednesday.

这并没有组织民主党人,他们正在快速前进。希夫的委员会预计将在下周一公布报告,众议院司法委员会将起草弹劾的实际条款,并宣布将在下周三举行第一次弹劾听证会。

More polls could show a different picture, and voters may change their minds as they continue to digest the facts over the Thanksgiving holiday. But right now, it appears that voters’ views of impeachment are as baked in as their views of Trump.

更多的民意调查可能会显示出不同的情况·,选民可能会改变主意,因为他们会继续消化感恩节假期的事实。但现实看来,选民对弹劾的看法和他们对特朗普的看法一样根深蒂固。

Cover: U.S. President Donald Trump talks to the media about the impeachment after greeting college athletes as part of NCAA Collegiate National Champions Day at the White House in Washington on November 22, 2019. Photo by Yuri Gripas/ABACAPRESS.COM

封面:美国总统特朗普与2019年11月22日在华盛顿白宫与大学生运动员打招呼,作为NCAA大学生国家队/冠军日的一部分,就弹劾事件与媒体惊醒了交谈。图片来自于Yuri Gripas/ABACAPRESS.com

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