大趋势预测 : 当今小孩能会活到一百岁
Great expectations: today's babies are likely to live to 100, doctors predict
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2019-12-02 06:21
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火星译客

Most babies born in the past few years will live to be 100 if current trends continue, experts say.

专家说,如果这势头继续下去,前几年生的婴儿绝大多数会活到一百岁。

And people could be living not only longer, but better, according to doctors writing in the Lancet medical journal, who say that most evidence shows the under-85s are tending to remain more capable and mobile than before. They have more chronic illnesses, such as cancers and heart conditions, but people survive them because they are diagnosed earlier and get better treatment.

根据医生们在医学杂志“柳叶刀” 发表文章所说,人不仅要活得长,而且要活得好。有证据表明,现在85岁以下的人比以前的人更能干、更灵敏,他们虽患有慢性疾病,如存在癌症和心脏疾病的诸多风险,但早期诊断可得到良好医治,仍有幸延长自己生命。

Professor Kaare Christensen and colleagues at the ageing research centre at the University of Southern Denmark calculate that at least half the babies born in the UK in the year 2000 will reach their 100th birthday. Life expectancy is increasing so fast that half the babies born in 2007 will live to be at least 103, while half the Japanese babies born in the same year will reach the age of 107.

南丹麦大学(University of Southern Denmark)衰老研究中心Kaare Christensen教授和他同事,通过计算后提出,英国2000年出生的小孩至少有一半能活到100岁。人的平均寿命在加速增加,可以推算出,2007年出生的小孩有一半至少可活到103岁,日本同年出生的小孩最少有一半可达到107岁。

The bad news is that the ageing populations of rich countries such as the UK threaten to unbalance the population. It "poses severe challenges for the traditional social welfare state," write Christensen and colleagues.

不幸的是,富裕国家如英国的人口老龄化已造成人口结构不平衡。Christensen和他的同事在文章中说,这“是对传统上社会福利国家的巨大挑战。”

But they have a radical solution: young and old should work fewer hours a week. Over a lifetime, we would all spend the same total amount of time at work as we do now, but spread out over the years.

但是,他们也提出了解决办法:减少年青人和老人一周工作时间几小时。人一生总的工作时间保持不变,把减少部份分散在延长工作年限里。 “

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